Cheltenham School District Enrollment Projections Facilities - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cheltenham School District Enrollment Projections

Facilities Committee Meeting November 1, 2016 Prepared by the Montgomery County Planning Commission

CSD Enrollment Projections Study

– CSD has gained 160 students over the last five years, with half of that in the last year – Common Factors for growth:

‒ Population gain ‒ Increases in new housing construction ‒ Increased birth activity in the last ten years ‒ A shifting of age cohorts into more families with young children

– Study uses a cohort progression model and additional data to explain trends and adjust the model when necessary

‒ Birth data ‒ Housing sales transactions spatially plotted with addresses ‒ Housing construction data ‒ Student address record files ‒ Multifamily inventory with public school student data ‒ Census and America Community Survey data

What is Happening

Many of the school districts in the Eastern half of Montgomery County are currently experiencing growth in enrollment or are expected to grow over the next ten years. Several factors are influencing this trend: 1. Private school enrollment has been declining as a percentage of total school age children 2. The market is facilitating new redevelopment and infill projects in suburbs with existing infrastructure 3. More public school students are originating out of existing multifamily developments (apartment rentals) 4. Home sales have increased since the Recession and generate more incoming students over outgoing students

CSD Enrollment History, by Grade Level

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2007- 08 2008- 09 2009- 10 2010- 11 2011- 12 2012- 13 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 2016- 17 K-4 5-6 7-8 9-12

Millennial Generation Impact

8,200 8,400 8,600 8,800 9,000 9,200 9,400 9,600 9,800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 50,000 52,000 54,000 56,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Females Age 25-34 in Montgomery County Montgomery County Live Births – Annual

Source: PA Department of Health Source: DVRPC

Housing Construction

Laverock Hill Recent zoning approval greenlights developer to build. However, plan evolving due to Springfield TWP not approving necessary zoning changes

• n their respective part of the parcel.

Lynnewood Hall On the market, rumored to be considered for townhouse

• development. Historic

preservation concerns regarding home and fence. Ashbourne Estates A proposal for 146 units, possibly age restricted. However, No EDU approval due to previous moratorium. Wyngate II 28 SFA Will be completed in 2017, part

• f an existing development.

Dominican Retreat On the market, can have up to 250 units due to a recent re-zoning. Enclave at Kerlin Farm Proposal for 79 age-restricted units, but no EDU’s granted yet. Ashbourne Meadows 90 SFD + 76 SFA = 166 Total Units EDU’s have been approved for this proposal but construction has not begun yet.

• An average of 28 units per year, excluding age-restricted, have been built over the

last 5 years – mostly attached and multifamily units

• The net impact of future development adds 92 public students over the next ten

years, adjusting for trend development

Other Housing Impacts

100 200 300 400 500 600 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Cheltenham SD Students Units Student / Unit 2009-10 776 4,792 0.16 2012-13 920 4,792 0.19 2015-16 982 4,792 0.20

Existing Housing Unit Sales 2006-2015

CSD Students from Multifamily Developments with 10 Units or More

Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission

Year of Housing Units Sold 2011 2013 2015 Number of Existing Units Sold 250 356 430 Incoming Students at Address of Units Sold 45 61 93 Outgoing Students at Address of Units Sold 18 43 51 Net Change in Students from Sales Activity +27 +18 +42

Source: CSD Records, MCPC Median Price Sales Reports

Impact of Housing Units Sold

Source: CSD Records, MCPC Analysis

Projection Method

– The Cohort Progression Model – industry standard for large districts with multiple trends – Three Scenarios

– Option 1 - Base Future Birth Estimate

– Progression rate averages are based on six years – Future births are estimated as an average of the last five years

– Option 2 - Higher Future Birth Estimate

– Difference from above – Increase in Estimated Births. Births affecting enrollment size of classes beginning in 2021-22 school year are expected to be higher than the average of the recent past beginning with 2015-16 birth estimates.

– Option 3 - Higher Future Birth Estimate with Housing Adjustment

– Difference from above – Accounts for Increase in Expected Housing Construction with recognition of impact beyond trend development level.

** Recommended Scenario **

Projection Summary

Year Option 1—Base Future Births Option 2 – Higher Future Births Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment

2016-17 (Current) 4,618 4,618 4,618 2017-18 4,585 4,585 4,610 2018-19 4,601 4,602 4,644 2019-20 4,625 4,626 4,684 2020-21 4,703 4,704 4,778 2021-22 4,735 4,745 4,822 5 Yr. Change from 2016-17 to 2021-22 117 127 204 2022-23 4,779 4,807 4,887 2023-24 4,789 4,845 4,928 2024-25 4,784 4,877 4,963 2025-26 4,776 4,914 5,003 2026-27 4,723 4,917 5,009 5 Yr. Change from 2021-22 to 2026-27

• 12

172 187 10 Yr. Change Since 2016-17 105 299 391

Projection Summary for Option 3 by Grade Totals

Year K-4 5-6 7-8 9-12

2016-17 (Current) 1,765 723 692 1,438 2017-18 1,765 751 709 1,385 2018-19 1,715 807 754 1,368 2019-20 1,694 818 781 1,390 2020-21 1,720 773 839 1,446 2021-22 1,740 751 848 1,483 5 Yr. Change from 2015-16 to 2020-21

• 25

28 156 45 2022-23 1,767 736 799 1,585 2023-24 1,798 742 777 1,611 2024-25 1,853 734 761 1,614 2025-26 1,867 771 768 1,598 2026-27 1,912 799 759 1,538 5 Yr. Change from 2020-21 to 2025-26 172 48

• 89

55 10 Yr. Change Since 2015-16 147 76 67 100

Elementary School Profiles

– Elementary School forecasts were done using data related to housing sales, construction, and proposals within each catchment. – Cheltenham ES – Glenside ES – Myers ES – Wyncote ES

Final Study Results

– General trends should provide for an increase of about 2% over the next ten years, but enrollment may grow as high as 8% due to the following factors – Housing construction is expected to outpace the recent trend level and bring additional growth. Several projects could add an additional 92 students above the trend development level. – Birth activity has been relatively low in recent years, but it could increase further as the millennial generation moves into child-bearing ages. This effect will not be as relevant to enrollment until the secondary period and beyond. – The number of students coming from older apartment buildings has increased in recent years and will continue to provide more students. – Additional students are also resulting from an increase in housing sales activity. – Measures to observe in coming years that could affect the longer term projections:

– School Calendar Birth Rates – Residential Development – Sales Activity – Nonpublic School Enrollment – Students in Multifamily Housing

Next…

– We recommend that the Board consider these growth projections and evaluate the District’s capacities at the individual building levels – The final enrollment projections report will be presented on November 15, 2016