NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT BOARD PRESENTATION ENROLLMENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT BOARD PRESENTATION ENROLLMENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 05, 2023 159 likes •357 views

NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT BOARD PRESENTATION ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS & SUBDIVISION ANALYSIS MAY 5, 2020 NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY BOUNDARY SUBDIVISION ANALYSIS QUESTIONS NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL

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NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS & SUBDIVISION ANALYSIS NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT BOARD PRESENTATION MAY 5, 2020

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NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY BOUNDARY

SUBDIVISION ANALYSIS QUESTIONS

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NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

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M ET H O D O LO G Y

COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD

  • Uses historical live birth data

and historical student enrollment to “age” (or progress) a known population (cohort) throughout the school grades

  • Survival ratios analyzed
  • Projection ratios developed
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NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

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EN R O LLM EN T P R O J EC T I O N S B Y ES B O U N D A RY

  • Enrollment projections are based on students

LIVING within a boundary

  • Does NOT reflect actual school enrollment
  • “Live” enrollment projections:
  • Useful for planning based on projected

growth/decline in areas of the District

Live within Pioneer ES Boundary Do not live within Pioneer ES Boundary Students Attending Pioneer ES

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LI V E / AT T EN D A N A LY S I S

  • 854 students transfer into

NHUSD schools from neighboring districts

  • 145 students transfer out of

NHUSD to attend neighboring districts

  • Based on IDA data given

to CS by NHUSD Student Services Department

  • The number of students

transferring out of NHUSD has decreased

  • ver the last 10 years
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H I S T O R I C A L EN R O LLM EN T

Grade 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 K 960 898 927 892 1,007 980 954 901 885 878 1 974 981 931 930 811 842 815 794 772 715 2 1,010 957 968 931 905 781 823 805 790 762 3 894 1,002 956 959 932 902 769 807 792 779 4 900 914 977 941 948 918 885 765 781 777 5 974 915 919 951 924 935 882 882 745 775 6 920 987 889 884 929 878 909 841 854 748 7 946 953 1,011 921 884 930 888 916 865 860 8 1,001 972 954 1,005 925 901 913 885 899 855 9 1,023 1,025 1,009 978 1,048 946 988 942 939 956 10 1,065 1,008 1,047 1,009 986 1,058 947 972 953 940 11 1,130 1,085 1,040 1,029 1,030 968 1,043 944 963 945 12 1,157 1,204 1,244 1,170 1,130 1,132 1,076 1,159 1,043 1,057 13 49 K - 12 Total 12,954 12,901 12,872 12,600 12,459 12,171 11,892 11,613 11,281 11,047 Grand Total 12,954 12,950 12,872 12,600 12,459 12,171 11,892 11,613 11,281 11,047 Grade 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 K - 5 5,712 5,667 5,678 5,604 5,527 5,358 5,128 4,954 4,765 4,686 6 - 8 2,867 2,912 2,854 2,810 2,738 2,709 2,710 2,642 2,618 2,463 9 - 12 4,375 4,322 4,340 4,186 4,194 4,104 4,054 4,017 3,898 3,898 Other 49 K - 12 Total 12,954 12,901 12,872 12,600 12,459 12,171 11,892 11,613 11,281 11,047 Grand Total 12,954 12,950 12,872 12,600 12,459 12,171 11,892 11,613 11,281 11,047 Historical Enrollment - District-wide

Source: New Haven Unified School District Student Data

Historical Enrollment - District-wide

Source: New Haven Unified School District Student Data

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H I S T O R I C A L EN R O LLM EN T

  • Enrollment in the New Haven Unified School District has

decreased by 1,907 students

  • According to student data, 2019-20 enrollment (K-12) is 11,047

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT - DISTRICT-WIDE

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B I RT H D ATA

  • Birth data is used to project kindergarten enrollment 5 years later

Year 94536 94542 94544 94545 94552 94555 94587 2003 1,089 173 1,322 412 180 572 1,088 2004 1,053 137 1,299 406 176 579 1,029 2005 1,079 132 1,393 440 149 566 968 2006 1,027 132 1,347 420 143 539 1,003 2007 1,042 124 1,335 475 145 599 1,024 2008 1,056 133 1,326 410 130 544 970 2009 1,039 156 1,334 433 113 533 970 2010 977 133 1,140 408 116 458 921 2011 1,011 142 1,177 427 109 477 900 2012 979 131 1,137 405 110 496 888 2013 978 155 1,141 412 104 465 929 2014 1,039 153 1,118 402 116 491 866 2015 1,012 159 1,103 415 93 468 915 2016 994 170 1,115 421 121 484 888 2017 991 167 1,039 414 122 458 822 2018 957 178 1,028 385 121 393 750

Source: California Department of Public Health

RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTS NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT ZIP CODES

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTS

94544 94587

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P O P U L AT I O N E S T I M AT E S

ALAMEDA COUNTY

  • Total population in Alameda County is

estimated to increase by approximately 4% from 2019 to 2024.

  • School-aged population (ages 5-18) is

estimated to decrease by 3,854 children,

  • r approximately 1% from 2019 to 2024.

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages 11-13 Ages 14-18

ALAMEDA COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES

2019 2024

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P O P U L AT I O N E S T I M AT E S

BY CENSUS BLOCK GROUP

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P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T

  • Recommended, Low, Moderate, and High projection were

developed

  • Recommended = based on more recent trends in the District
  • Low = conservative approach
  • Moderate projection = in this case reflects a 3–year weighted

average of survival ratios at the elementary boundary level

  • High projection = liberal approach
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P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

HISTORICAL & PROJECTED ENROLLMENT -NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High

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P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T

RECOMMENDED

Grade 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 K 916 894 827 762 827 827 827 827 827 827 1 736 768 748 693 638 693 693 693 693 693 2 704 725 756 738 682 630 682 682 682 682 3 754 697 717 747 729 675 622 675 675 675 4 767 739 686 704 736 716 665 612 664 664 5 766 758 731 678 696 727 708 656 603 656 6 758 750 743 715 664 684 713 694 644 591 7 761 771 762 752 726 671 690 721 702 651 8 854 756 763 759 748 719 669 687 717 699 9 901 897 793 801 795 785 756 700 721 750 10 959 904 899 796 804 800 787 758 703 722 11 930 948 895 890 787 796 792 779 750 695 12 1,035 1,019 1,038 976 975 860 871 869 857 822 Grand Total 10,841 10,626 10,358 10,011 9,807 9,583 9,475 9,353 9,238 9,127 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide Grade 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 K - 5 4,643 4,581 4,465 4,322 4,308 4,268 4,197 4,145 4,144 4,197 6 - 8 2,373 2,277 2,268 2,226 2,138 2,074 2,072 2,102 2,063 1,941 9 - 12 3,825 3,768 3,625 3,463 3,361 3,241 3,206 3,106 3,031 2,989 Grand Total 10,841 10,626 10,358 10,011 9,807 9,583 9,475 9,353 9,238 9,127 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide

Source: Cooperative Strategies Source: Cooperative Strategies 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - RECOMMENDED - DISTRICT-WIDE

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FA C T O R S T O C O N S I D ER

  • It is important to continue to monitor enrollment trends and live

birth trends as these factors impact future enrollment

  • The following factors can also cause significant change in

projected student enrollment

  • Boundary adjustments
  • New school openings
  • School closures
  • Changes / additions in program
  • fferings
  • Preschool programs
  • Change in grade configuration
  • Interest rates / unemployment shifts
  • Intra- and inter-District transfer
  • Magnet / charter / private school
  • pening or closure
  • Zoning changes
  • Annexations
  • Unplanned new housing activity
  • Planned, but not built, housing
  • School voucher programs
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SUBDIVISION ANALYSIS

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C U R R EN T S U B D I V I S I O N S

  • 32 Apartment Complexes
  • 10 Condominium Complexes
  • 2 Manufactured Complexes
  • 12 Townhome Complexes
  • 39 Single-Family Subdivisions

Apartment 2,960 1,028 0.35 Condominium 1,381 351 0.25 Manufactured 882 249 0.28 Townhome 1,747 966 0.55 Single-Family 14,382 7,257 0.50 SUBDIVIDED TOTAL 21,352 9,851 0.46 Non-Subdivided

  • 192
  • Out of District
  • 854
  • Unmatched
  • 150

STUDENT TOTAL

  • 11,047
  • Average

Yield K-12 Student Count Total Units Housing Type

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H O U S I N G S T O C K

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P LA N N ED S U B D I V I S I O N S & S T U D EN T P O T EN T I A LS

Map # Development Name Housing Type Yield Applied Units K-12 Student Potential 36 Horner Street Mixed Use Apartment 0.35 25 9 92 Turk Island Landfill Consolidation & Residential Subdivision Project Single-Family 0.50 33 17 102 Station East Residential/Mixed Use Project Multi-Family

(Type not Specified)

0.38* 964 368 103 MidPen Affordable Housing Project Apartment 0.35 80 28 1,102 421 Unknown 0.46 368 169 1,470 590 KNOWN DEVELOPMENT TOTAL Preliminary Zoning Requests GRAND TOTAL Source: Union City Planning Department; Development data received April 22, 2020

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NEW HAVEN UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

QUESTIONS