Air Quality Modeling of 2017 Ozone Episodes in the City of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
air quality modeling of 2017 ozone episodes in the city
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Air Quality Modeling of 2017 Ozone Episodes in the City of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 01, 2024 184 likes •636 views

Air Quality Modeling of 2017 Ozone Episodes in the City of Albuquerque Kenneth Craig Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA for City of Albuquerque Air Quality Control Board Albuquerque, NM October 17, 2018 918015-7000 2 Work Steps

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Air Quality Modeling of 2017 Ozone Episodes in the City of Albuquerque

Kenneth Craig

Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA for

City of Albuquerque Air Quality Control Board

Albuquerque, NM October 17, 2018

918015-7000

slide-2
SLIDE 2

2

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Purpose

Use scientific data and modeling analysis to:

  • Further the understanding of

high ozone in the Albuquerque area.

  • Understand control strategies

that (if necessary) can be helpful for reducing ozone in the region.

3

Ozone on July 10, 2017

Purpose and Background

slide-4
SLIDE 4

4

What Is Ozone?

Naturally occurring ozone in the upper atmosphere protects earth from the sun’s UV radiation.

Purpose and Background

Ground-level ozone can affect human health and damage plants. Secondary pollutant formed from precursor emissions:

  • Nitrogen Oxides

(NOx = NO + NO2)

  • Volatile organic compounds

(VOCs)

slide-5
SLIDE 5

How Weather Impacts Ozone

  • Sunlight facilitates ozone formation.
  • Warm days with a temperature-induced

lid (inversion) can trap ground-level ozone and precursors.

  • Winds can transport and disperse ozone

and its precursors.

  • Winds may vary vertically and horizontally

and affect different emission sources differently.

5

Purpose and Background

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Ozone Monitoring Sites

6

Purpose and Background

slide-7
SLIDE 7

7

National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

  • Current 8-hr ozone NAAQS is 70 ppb
  • Design value based on annual 4th highest maximum 8-hr

concentration, averaged over three years

Purpose and Background

70 ppb 75 ppb 80 ppb

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ozone (ppb) Year

Ozone Design Values in Albuquerque

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Fire Emissions and Ozone

8

Smoke and ozone on June 14, 2017 Smoke and ozone on July 7, 2017

NOx and VOC emissions from fires can create ozone.

Purpose and Background

slide-9
SLIDE 9

9

Photochemical Modeling Concepts

Transport - Where pollutants go Diffusion - How pollutants are diluted Deposition - How pollutants are removed Chemistry - How pollutants are created or destroyed (nonlinear) Critical modeling inputs include meteorology, emissions, and boundary conditions.

Purpose and Background

slide-10
SLIDE 10

10

Air Quality Modeling Concepts

Purpose and Background

Size of boxes = “grid resolution”

slide-11
SLIDE 11

11

Air Quality Modeling Concepts

  • Model Performance Evaluation: A statistical and

diagnostic comparison of modeled and observed concentrations.

  • Source Apportionment Modeling: Tracks NOx and

VOC emissions as they form ozone downwind.

  • Sensitivity Modeling:

– Alter the emissions – Conduct a sensitivity simulation – Compare results to the base case simulation

Purpose and Background

slide-12
SLIDE 12

12

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-13
SLIDE 13

Modeling Episodes

13

Two Episodes

  • June 12-16, 2017
  • July 3-14, 2017

Ozone was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Albuquerque

  • n 4 days during these episodes.

These episodes include most of the high ozone days that

  • ccurred in 2017.

Episode Selection

Ozone on June 14, 2017

slide-14
SLIDE 14

14

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-15
SLIDE 15

Meteorological Modeling

15

  • Weather inputs were developed with the Weather

Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical weather prediction model.

  • Modeled winds, temperature, and humidity were

evaluated against available observations.

  • Model performance was good and within

benchmarks established by the air quality modeling community.

Meteorology

slide-16
SLIDE 16

16

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-17
SLIDE 17

17

Emissions Modeling

  • Based on EPA’s 2014

National Emissions Inventory (NEI).

  • 2017 day-specific

emissions for power plants and wildfires.

  • Mobile sources in

Bernalillo County adjusted from 2014 to 2017.

U.S. onroad mobile source NOx emissions in the modeling domain.

Emissions

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Annual 2014 Emissions in Bernalillo County

18

NOx Emissions VOC Emissions Emissions

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Annual 2014 New Mexico Emissions

19

Sector Emissions [tons/year]

Biogenics 1,256,514 Petroleum & Related Industries 175,223 Miscellaneous 25,636 Highway Vehicles 24,625 Solvent Utilization 22,503 Off-Highway 9,526 Storage & Transport 7,465 Fuel Comb. Industrial 2,848 Fuel Comb. Other 2,108 Waste Disposal & Recycling 1,553 Fuel Comb. Elec. Util. 309 Other Industrial Processes 290 Metals Processing 1

Oil and Gas Sector VOC Emissions

Emissions

slide-20
SLIDE 20

20

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-21
SLIDE 21

Air Quality Modeling

  • Comprehensive Air Quality

Model with Extensions (CAMx).

  • EPA-approved, state-of-

science model that simulates atmospheric transport, diffusion, deposition, and chemistry.

  • Boundary conditions from

“global” air quality modeling conducted by NCAR.

  • Grid resolution of 4 km

(about 2.5 miles) over New Mexico.

21

Modeling domains.

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Air Quality Modeling

22

  • The model was evaluated against available air

quality observations.

  • Model performance was good (especially

considering the complex terrain) and within benchmarks established by the air quality modeling community.

  • High ozone in afternoon with clear skies, light

southerly/southwesterly winds, and warm-to-hot temperatures.

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Air Quality Modeling

23

Modeled peak 8-hr ozone

slide-24
SLIDE 24

24

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 Minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 Minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 Minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-25
SLIDE 25

Ozone Source Apportionment

25

We also tracked ozone formation due to NOx and VOC emissions from specific emission sources (e.g., cars, power plants, and fires); and conducted separate sensitivity simulations to assess ozone impacts from emissions in Sandoval and Valencia counties. Source Apportionment

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Contributions to Ozone in Albuquerque

26

Bernalillo County accounted for up to 75% of New Mexico’s anthropogenic contribution.

Source Apportionment

Wildland and Prescribed Fire Wildland and Prescribed Fire

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Contributions to Ozone in Albuquerque

27

  • Transport from outside New Mexico is always important

and accounts for over half of the ozone in Albuquerque.

  • Local emissions in Albuquerque and Bernalillo County

are also important. Half of the locally generated ozone is due to onroad mobile emissions.

  • Local contributions were less prevalent during the June
  • zone episode, which was driven largely by long-range

transport.

Source Apportionment

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Contributions to Ozone in Albuquerque

28

  • On high ozone days in the two modeled episodes,

contributions from major power plants in northern New Mexico were small at sites in Albuquerque.

  • Impacts from man-made emissions in western

states, including California, are non-negligible.

  • Ozone contributions from wildfire smoke were

important during both episodes.

  • Emissions from nonroad and non-mobile source

sectors are becoming increasingly important.

Source Apportionment

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Fire Impacts on Ozone

June 15, 2017

29

Fires within New Mexico Fires outside New Mexico Source Apportionment

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Ozone Impacts from Major Power Plants (June 15, 2017)

30

Source Apportionment

slide-31
SLIDE 31

31

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-32
SLIDE 32

Sensitivity Modeling Simulations

1. 10% reduction of Bernalillo County anthropogenic NOx emissions 2. 10% reduction of Bernalillo County anthropogenic VOC emissions 3. 25% reduction of Bernalillo County onroad mobile source NOx emissions 4. 25% reduction of New Mexico Oil and Gas emissions 5. Impact of Bernalillo County Inspection and Maintenance (I&M) Program 6. Reeves and Rio Bravo power plants running at full capacity and permitted emission levels 7. 100% reduction of Sandoval County anthropogenic emissions 8. 100% reduction of Valencia County anthropogenic emissions

32

Sensitivity Modeling

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Reeves and Rio Bravo Power Plants

33

Facility Actual NOx Permitted NOx Reeves 0.5-2.0 tons/day 11.8 tons/day Rio Bravo 0.2-0.4 tons/day 3.5 tons/day

Sensitivity Modeling

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Key Takeaways from Sensitivity Modeling

  • NOx emission controls will be effective at reducing ozone in
  • Albuquerque. VOC emission controls may not be effective

unless they are substantial (>10%).

  • Emissions from Valencia and Sandoval counties impact ozone

in Albuquerque.

  • Reeves and Rio Bravo power plants would impact ozone in

Albuquerque if they operated at full capacity and with permitted emission levels.

34

Sensitivity Modeling

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Key Takeaways from Sensitivity Modeling

  • Local emission controls will be less effective on days when
  • zone is driven primarily by long-range transport (e.g., June

2017 ozone episode).

  • The I&M program in Bernalillo County reduces onroad NOx

emissions by 5% and VOC emissions by 7% and helps to reduce ozone in Albuquerque.

  • Ozone in Albuquerque is sensitive to emissions from oil and

gas operations throughout New Mexico.

35

Sensitivity Modeling

slide-36
SLIDE 36

36

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-37
SLIDE 37

Future-Year Modeling

37

2017 Emission Inventory 2025 Emission Inventory Projection Future activity assumptions, regulations, and emission controls

+ =

  • Based on EPA’s 2025 emission inventory projections.
  • New Mexico power plant emissions based on

committed shutdowns and emission controls.

  • Other modeling inputs remain unchanged.
slide-38
SLIDE 38

Future-Year Modeling

1. Impact of 2025 emissions on ozone in Albuquerque. 2. Reeves and Rio Bravo power plants operating at full capacity and at permitted emission levels. 3. 25% reduction of NOx and VOC emissions from Bernalillo, Sandoval, and Valencia counties. 4. Conversion of light-duty gasoline-powered vehicle fleet in Bernalillo County to electric.

38

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Takeaways from Future-Year Modeling

39

  • Projected emission reductions by 2025 would

reduce ozone in Albuquerque by 3-7%.

  • For example, a 5% reduction by 2025 could

reduce the future-year ozone design value in Albuquerque by 3-4 ppb.

Future-Year Modeling

slide-40
SLIDE 40

Takeaways from Future-Year Modeling

40

  • Reeves and Rio Bravo power plants would also

impact ozone in Albuquerque in the future if they were operated at full capacity and with permitted emission levels (up to 7%).

  • A 25% reduction of NOx and VOC emissions in

Bernalillo, Sandoval, and Valencia counties reduces

  • zone at Albuquerque sites by as much as 4%.
  • Replacing the light-duty vehicle fleet by electric

vehicles in Bernalillo County reduces ozone levels by about 1-3%.

Future-Year Modeling

slide-41
SLIDE 41

41

Work Steps (Outline)

  • Purpose and Background (6 minutes)
  • Episode Selection (1 minute)
  • Meteorological Modeling (1 minute)
  • Emissions Modeling (3 minutes)
  • Air Quality Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Source Apportionment Modeling (5 minutes)
  • Sensitivity Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Future-Year Modeling (4 minutes)
  • Conclusion (3 minutes)
slide-42
SLIDE 42

Overall Conclusions

Ozone in Albuquerque is:

  • Complex (meteorology, emissions, chemistry)
  • The result of local and non-local emissions
  • Impacted by fire emissions
  • Responsive to NOx emission controls
  • Not responsive to small levels of VOC controls
  • Sensitive to statewide oil and gas emissions
  • Not sensitive to emissions from major power plants

in northern New Mexico during the modeled episodes

42

slide-43
SLIDE 43

Overall Conclusions

Other important takeaways:

  • Local emission controls will be less effective on days when
  • zone is driven primarily by long-range transport (e.g., June

2017 ozone episode).

  • Although I&M program impacts on modeled ozone were

small in the modeled 2017 episodes, the program reduced

  • nroad NOx emissions by 5% and reduced VOC emissions by

7% and continues to be an important way to control local emissions in Albuquerque.

  • Ozone impacts at sites in Albuquerque from major power

plants in northern New Mexico were small in the modeled 2017 episodes, and will likely be smaller in the future, given recent decommissionings and NOx emission controls.

43

slide-44
SLIDE 44

Contact Us

Kenneth Craig

Manager, Atmospheric Modeling Group kcraig@sonomatech.com

707.665.9900 sonomatech.com @sonoma_tech

44