AIM/Material Japan Activities in 2002 Toshihiko Masui Maho - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM/Material Japan

Activities in 2002

Toshihiko Masui Maho Miyashita (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

The 8th AIM International Workshop 14th March, 2003 National Institute for Environmental Studies

AIM/Material Japan 2 AIM, NIES

Progresses of AIM/Material in FY2002

Structure (AIM/Material Japan)

Waste from stock and reuse : with Ms. Miyashita (TIT) Reproduction of detailed waste flow

Simulation (AIM/Material Japan)

Reform of taxation in Japan Simulation of environmental policies

Others: with Dr. Rana & Dr. Yang

Simple AIM/Material (for India Workshop) Comparison analysis (India & China, not yet

completed)

Introduction of natural assets: with Ms. Suwa (TIT)

AIM/Material Japan 3 AIM, NIES

Background of AIM/Material Background of AIM/Material

• Various environmental problems should be solved

Various environmental problems should be solved simultaneously. simultaneously.

• CO

CO2

2 reduction, solid waste management, air pollution, water

reduction, solid waste management, air pollution, water management, ... management, ...

• These problems ... trade

These problems ... trade-

• off/independent/concurrent
• ff/independent/concurrent
• Various environmental protection activities can be

Various environmental protection activities can be projected. projected.

• Which is the most effective?

Which is the most effective?

• How much are direct/indirect impacts to economy and other

How much are direct/indirect impacts to economy and other environment? environment?

➜ ➜ Quantification of benefits from environmental policies

Quantification of benefits from environmental policies including environmental industry/investment by using including environmental industry/investment by using environment environment-

• economy (AIM/Material) model

economy (AIM/Material) model

• CO

CO2

2 reduction and solid waste reduction

reduction and solid waste reduction

AIM/Material Japan 4 AIM, NIES

Computable general equilibrium model Japan 1995 to 2010, year by year (recursive dynamic) 41 sectors and 49 commodities 18 waste types of industrial waste and 8 types of

municipal waste

Environmental industry and environmental investment Keep economic balance and material balance Environmental constraints

CO2 emissions reduction based on Kyoto Protocol Reduction in quantity of final disposal of solid waste

to half 2010/1997 proposed by government

Overview of AIM/Material Japan Overview of AIM/Material Japan

AIM/Material Japan 5 AIM, NIES

Basic structure of AIM/Material

production sector household capital labor government abroad market import export produced commodity energy intermediate CO2 energy final demand CO2 pollution waste pollution management

• env. capital

labor environmental Industry/investment recycle pollution waste energy intermediate CO2

AIM/Material Japan 6 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse

Purpose

Direct reuse of waste is effective environmental

policy or not?

It seems to be effective to solve waste issues. But, it seems to delay energy efficiency improvement.

In order to answer this question, following module is

developed and integrated with AIM/Material

production/consumption (AIM/Material) stock (durable goods) waste (Weibull distribution) reuse / treatment

AIM/Material Japan 7 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse

Model

AIM/Material Waste generation model Production Household Reuse Stock in t-1 Stock in t Waste (stock) Reuse Stock in t+1 Other treatment Waste management service Municipal waste (flow) Recycle Final disposal Durable goods Repair Low energy efficiency

AIM/Material Japan 8 AIM, NIES

equipment i consumed in t=t t t+1 t+2 .... t+x-1 t+x total disposal rate: Weibull distribution x=durable years 100% 50% 0%

Total disposal rate: ( ) 1 t F t

α

β       = − −          

equipment i consumed in t=t+1 t+1 t+2 t+3 .... t+x t+x+1 total disposal rate: Weibull distribution x=durable years 100% 50% 0%

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse

Waste generation model

equipment j consumed in t=t t t+1 t+2 .... t+x-1 t+x total disposal rate: Weibull distribution x=durable years 100% 50% 0% equipment j consumed in t=t+1 t+1 t+2 t+3 .... t+x t+x+1 total disposal rate: Weibull distribution x=durable years 100% 50% 0%

AIM/Material Japan 9 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse

Scenarios

Reference case Reuse promotion scenarios

promotion of reuse in household

small scale expansion of reuse

expansion of reuse in government

large scale expansion of reuse

expansion of rental service reduction of repair cost

AIM/Material Japan 10 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse

Simulation results: GDP change

1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8 2 1 2 4 2 7

• 2
• 1

5

• 1
• 5

5 1 1 5 2 b i l y e n a t 1 9 9 5 p r i c e s m a l l l a r g e r e n t a l r e p a i r

AIM/Material Japan 11 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse

Simulation results: Municipal waste disposal change

1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8 2 1 2 4 2 7

• 1

2

• 1
• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2 t

• n

s m a l l l a r g e r e n t a l r e p a i r

AIM/Material Japan 12 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse

Simulation results: CO2 emission change

1 9 9 51 9 9 71 9 9 92 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9

• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 6 M t C s m a l l l a r g e r e n t a l r e p a i r

AIM/Material Japan 13 AIM, NIES

Progress in structure: (1) Waste from stock and reuse

Messages from simulation

Expansion of reuse will make quantity of

municipal final disposal decrease.

CO2 will increase in small expansion of reuse,

because reuse delay energy efficiency improvement.

On the other hand, CO2 will decrease in large

amount of reuse, because economic structure itself will shift from manufacture to service industry such as repair.

Please contact Ms. Miyashita for more detail!

AIM/Material Japan 14 AIM, NIES

Additional flow

recycle production 18 industrial wastes 8 municipal wastes household 8 municipal wastes industrial waste man. sector

• int. man.
• dir. reuse
• dir. disp.

self treatment

• fin. disp.

municipal waste man. sector

• int. man.
• dir. reuse
• dir. disp.

recycle fin. disp. recycle fin. disp.

Progress in structure : (2) Reproduction of detailed waste flow

AIM/Material Japan 15 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(1) Taxation reform in Japan

Outline

From 2003, taxation to energy will be

reformed as follows; Energy [present] → [in 2007] (increase of carbon price)

Steam coal:

0 → 700 ¥/ton (1065 ¥/tC)

Natural gas:

720 → 1080 ¥/ton ( 490 ¥/tC)

LPG:

670 → 1080 ¥/ton ( 500 ¥/tC)

Electricity: 0.445 → 0.375 ¥/kWh

AIM/Material Japan 16 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(1) Taxation reform in Japan

Results

“X% more rapid” means that by energy price increase, the related energy efficiency in new capital is changed from α%/year to α(1+X/100)%/year.

• 0.40
• 0.35
• 0.30
• 0.25
• 0.20
• 0.15
• 0.10
• 0.05

0.00 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year CO2 Change [MtC/year] 1% more rapid 2% more rapid 5% more rapid

AIM/Material Japan 17 AIM, NIES

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies

Outline

Environmental constraints will

decrease economic activity.

CO2 reduction and solid waste disposal

reduction

Appropriate environmental policy will

recover economic losses.

environmental investment, technology

change, taxation reform, preference change

AIM/Material Japan 18 AIM, NIES

440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Trillion yen at 1995 price Actual values Calculated values

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies

Result: GDP in reference case

AIM/Material Japan 19 AIM, NIES

• 1.4
• 1.2
• 1.0
• 0.8
• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.0 2000 2005 2010 Year GDP change [tri. Yen at 1995 price]

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies

Result: GDP loss by CO2 and final disposal waste reduction

0.5% of GDP

AIM/Material Japan 20 AIM, NIES

• 1.4
• 1.2
• 1.0
• 0.8
• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.0 2000 2005 2010 Year GDP change [tri. Yen at 1995 price]

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies

Result: GDP recovery by environmental investment

Mitigation by env. Industry and investment GDP loss GDP loss

AIM/Material Japan 21 AIM, NIES

• 1.4
• 1.2
• 1.0
• 0.8
• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.0 2000 2005 2010 Year GDP change [tri. Yen at 1995 price]

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies

Result: GDP recovery by technology improvement

Mitigation by technology improvement GDP loss GDP loss

AIM/Material Japan 22 AIM, NIES

• 1.4
• 1.2
• 1.0
• 0.8
• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.0 2000 2005 2010 Year GDP change [tri. Yen at 1995 price]

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies

Result: GDP recovery by taxation system change

Mitigation by subsidy to waste treatment GDP loss GDP loss

AIM/Material Japan 23 AIM, NIES

• 1.4
• 1.2
• 1.0
• 0.8
• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.0 2000 2005 2010 Year GDP change [tri. Yen at 1995 price]

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies

Result: GDP recovery by preference change

Mitigation by green consumption GDP loss GDP loss

AIM/Material Japan 24 AIM, NIES

• 1.4
• 1.2
• 1.0
• 0.8
• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.0 2000 2005 2010 Year GDP change [tri. Yen at 1995 price]

Simulations :(2) Simulation of environmental policies

Result: GDP recovery by various countermeasures

Mitigation by green consumption

GDP loss GDP loss

Mitigation by subsidy to waste treatment Mitigation by env. Industry and investment Mitigation by technology improvement

AIM/Material Japan 25 AIM, NIES

Simulations: (2) Simulation of environmental policies

Messages from this simulation

In Japan, constraints on CO2 and final

disposal of solid waste will bring 1.4 trillion yen of GDP loss in 2010.

But Environmental industry will

mitigate more than 30% of GDP loss.

Moreover, the encouragement of green

consumption or related policies will improve environment and economy.

AIM/Material Japan 26 AIM, NIES

Other topics

Simple AIM/Material (for India Workshop) Comparison analysis (India & China, not yet

be completed)

Please refer to Dr. Rana’s presentation! Please refer to Dr. Yan’s presentation!

Introduction of natural assets: with Ms. Suwa

(TIT)

Please refer to next my presentation!