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2050 E NE RGY SCE NARIOS FOR FRANCE Michel Colombier IDDRI Paris March 24 2005 1 NIES Symposium Low carbon society scenario toward 2050 Outline of the presentation Energy Technology Outlook, using the POLES model (P. Criqui,

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NIES Symposium « Low carbon society scenario toward 2050

March 24 2005 1

Michel Colombier IDDRI Paris

2050 E NE RGY SCE NARIOS FOR FRANCE

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Outline of the presentation

Energy Technology Outlook, using the POLES model (P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE CNRS) « Factor four » MIES study, developped by P Radanne (former President of MIES) Lessons for policy makers

Short and medium term policies Research programmes

New developments on Industry (Iddri research programme with LEPII-EPE and CIRED)

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E nergy Technology Outlook using the POLE S model

A dynamic partial equilibrium model EU research programmes (Joule, FP5) A Global, Energy Sector and GHG emitting

Activities representation

A recursive simulation framework

exogenous/endogenous technologies

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International Energy Markets Coal Oil Gas Regional Energy Balances Prices (t+1) Imports / Exports (t)

POP GDP Resources

The POLE S model year-by-year recursive simulation process

Cons, Prod Emissions Emission Constraint Technologies 46 Regions

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POLE S : E nergy demand modules

Substituable Fuels Electricity Transport Fuels Industry Steel industry X X Chemical industry X X Non Metallic Mineral X X Other industries X X Transport Road / passenger X Road / goods X Rail / passenger X Rail / goods X Air transport X Other X Tertiary X X Residential X X Agriculture X X

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Very Low E nergy/ E mission Technologies

Low emission vehicles:

  • Conventional ICE vehicle

ICE

  • Hybrid vehicle

HYB

  • Battery electric car

BEC

  • Direct H2-ICE vehicle

HCE

  • Methanol FCV

FCVM

  • Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicle

FCVH

Low energy buildings:

  • LEB in existing and new stock (50% of conventional)
  • VLEB in new stock (25% of conventional)
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POLE S : New and Renewable technologies

New and Renewable Technologies Waste Incineration CHP BF2 Biomass Gasif. with Gas Turbines BGT Combined Heat and Power CHP Photovoltaics (windows) DPV Proton Exch. Membr. Fuel Cell (Fixed) MFC Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (Fixed Cogen.) SFC Rural Photovoltaics RPV Solar Thermal Powerplants SPP Small Hydro SHY Wind Turbines WND Biofuels for transport BF3 Fuel Cell Vehicle (PEM) FCV

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Market potential and speed of diffusion

increase with cost-competitiveness

POLE S : New energy technology diffusion

Technical/Resource potential Economic potential Ta Diffusion Ta Economic potential Tb Diffusion Tb Time Ta = technology with high RoI Tb = Technology with medium RoI

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POLE S : Large scale power technologies

Large Scale Power Generation Advanced Thermodynamic Cycle ATC Super Critical Pulverised Coal PFC Integrated Coal Gasif. Comb. Cycle ICG Coal Conventional Thermal CCT Lignite Conventional Thermal LCT Large Hydro HYD Nuclear LWR NUC New Nuclear Design NND Gas Conventional Thermal GCT Gas Turbines Combined Cycle GGT Oil Conventional Thermal OCT Oil Fired Gas Turbines OGT

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POLE S : Power generation capacity planning

T o ta l c o s t $ /k W .a n

8 7 6 0 h

S h a re o f p o w e r p la n ts : f (re la tiv e to ta l c o ts ) E x p e c te d P e a k lo a d E x p e c te d B a s e lo a d

H y d ro 7 3 0 2 1 9 0 3 6 5 0 5 1 1 0 6 5 7 0 8 0 3 0 8 7 6 0 h

Investment costs from CTS E3DB database Fuel costs endogenous to the model

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In POLES Reference case, a « Two Factor

Learning Curve », simulates cost decrease with cumulative installed capacities and cumulative R&D spending (public and private) COST = A * CUMCAP-b * CUMRD-c with: CUMRD = Government Energy R&D + Business Energy R&D

POLE S : E ndogenous technological progress

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The H2 E conomy in POLE S

Sources Production Network Final consumption

Steam Reforming (GSR) GAS Steam Reforming with Carbon Seq.(GSS) Partial Oxidation (CPO) COAL Partial Oxidation with Carbon Seq.(CPS) High Capacity gy Industries BIOMASS PYrolysis (BPY) Solar Thermal High Temperature (SHT) Other Industries, Services Nuclear High Temperature (NHT) Medium Capacity Refuelling Stations Nuclear Water Electrolysis (WEN) Vehicles Wind Water Electrolysis (WEW) Low Capacity Buildings FOSSILS HYDRO Water Electrolysis from NUCLEAR Grid (WEG) WIND SOLAR PV SOLAR Th

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2 + 10 Hydrogen technologies

2 End-use technologies

Hydrogen Fuel-Cells for stationary uses (+Gas FC)

HFC, GFC

Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles (+Methanol FCV),

FCVH, FCVM 10 H2 Production technologies

Hydrogen from Gas Steam Reforming

GSR

Gas Steam Reforming with CO2 Sequestration

GSS

Coal Partial Oxidation

CPO

Coal Partial Oxidation with CO2 Sequestration

CPS

Biomass Pyrolysis

BPY

Solar High-temp. Thermochemical cycles

SHT

Wind Energy Water electrolysis

WEW

Nuclear High-temp. Thermochemical cycles

NHT

Water Electrolysis, dedicated Nuclear power plant

WEN

Water Electrolysis, baseload electricity from Grid

WEG

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5 Carbon Capture & Sequestration options

Electricity technologies

PFC + CCS => PSS Pulverized fuel Supercritical with CCS ICG + CCS => CGS Integrated Coal Gasification with CCS GGC + CCS => GGS Gas powered Gas turbine in

combined cycle with CCS

Hydrogen technologies

GSR+CCS

=> GSS Gas Steam reforming with CCS

CPO+CCS => CPS Coal Partial oxidation with CCS

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Techs-DB: a database for key energy technologies

Techs-DB is developed in the framework of

the CNRS Energy Programme and of different DG-Research projects, on a collaborative basis

It aims at improving the quality and

consistency of technology hypotheses in modelling and policy analysis exercises

Detailed cost/performance data are gathered

and harmonised for a set of about 50 generic technologies, corresponding to the POLES model portfolios

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Techs-DB: understanding and harmonising technology data

Wind Power on-shore - Investment costs

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 €99/kW IEA (EU), 2004 IEA (IC), 2004 IEA (DC), 2004 IEA (TC), 2004 EIA, 2004 EPE, 2004 ECN 1998 IPTS, 2003 VLEEM, 2003 Ecofys, 2002 Ikarus, 2003

Observed ?

Gaps in data

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Techs-DB: the fundamentals of H2 production

2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 Investmt Cost €/(M3d) 45 27 113 68 118 71 600 350 124 74 Technical lifetime Years 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 25 25 Annual fixed cost Capital Cost €/(M3d) 3,8 2,3 9,7 5,8 10,1 6,1 51,5 30,0 11,6 7,0 FOM (10%) €/(M3d) 0,38 0,23 0,97 0,58 1,01 0,61 5,15 3,00 1,16 0,70 Fixed cost €/(M3d) 4,21 2,54 10,62 6,37 11,15 6,69 56,63 33,03 12,75 7,65 Fixed cost €/koed 393 237 992 595 1041 625 5288 3085 1191 715 A

  • vailab. Factor

% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 20% 20% 33% 33% Fixed cost €/toe 60 36 151 91 158 95 3019 1761 412 247 Variable Costs Fuel price (end) €/toe 103 292 80 147 200 220 648 660 Fuel efficiency % 75% 80% 50% 65% 65% 65% 15% 15% 75% 75% VOM €/toe 6 6 35 35 35 35 35 35 21 21 Variable cost €/toe 143 371 195 262 343 373 35 35 885 901 Production cost €/toe 203 407 345 352 501 469 3054 1796 1297 1148 HWE GSR CPO BPY SSE

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A «factor 4 »scenario using the Poles model

Developped for the ministry of

industry

Consistent with EU goals (2℃

increase)

A « factor 4 » for AI countries, but a

« factor 3 » for France (taking into account the current level)

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The global Context : S550e and S650e profiles

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 GHG Emissions (GtCO2-eq)

Baseline S550e S650e

IMAGE 2.2

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2050 regional profiles Annex I Non Annex I S650e

+ 2.5°C from pre-ind. + 1.9 °C from today

/ Factor 2 x 2 (LAM, MET, SEEA) x 5 (AFR, SOA = baseline) S550e

+1.6 °C from pre-ind. + 1.0 °C from today

/ Factor 4 x 1 (LAM, MET, SEEA) x 3 (AFR, SOA)

  • Temp. increase

(median IPCC 2001 CSF) 2050 endowmts. compared to 1990 emiss.

Emission profile

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Share of VLE Vehicles

Référence

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Conventionnel Hybride Electrique Thermique - H2 PAC H2 PAC Gaz

Facteur 4

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Conventionnel Hybride Electrique Thermique - H2 PAC H2 PAC Gaz

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Share of VLE Buildings

Référence

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Standard Basse Consommation Très Basse Consommation

Facteur 4

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Standard Basse Consommation Très Basse Consommation

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RE SIDE NTIAL AND SE RVICE

A REVISER

France - Résidentiel

10 20 30 40 50 60 2001 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 M t e p Ren + Ch Electricité Charbon Pétrole Gaz

France - tertiaire

5 10 15 20 25 2001 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 M t e p Ren + Ch Electricité Charbon Pétrole Gaz

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Transports

Consumption

increase until 2020

Fast diffusion of

new vehicles after 2030

France - Transport

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2001 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 M t e p H2 Biocarburants Electricité Charbon Pétrole Gaz

61 % dans Aérien et Autres Transp

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INDUSTRY

Stabilisation of

Industry consumption after 2010

A mix of Gas and

Electricity

France - Industrie (usages énergétiques)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2001 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 M t e p Ren + Ch Electricité Charbon Pétrole Gaz

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CCS takes almost all thermal generation between 2020 and 2030 …

Séquestration

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 G t C O 2 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 G t C O 2 Stockage annuel Cumul

Monde - Production Electricité Fossile

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 T W h Avec Sequestration Sans Sequestration

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… but in current scenarios, the extra cost limits the competitiveness compared to renewables and nuclear

from Techs DB and for 2025

€/MWh Pulverised Coal Pulverised Coal + CCS Wind Nuclear 0 €/tCO2 30 42 39 35 20 €/tCO2 46 46 39 35

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Impacts on the international markets:

Significant mitigation action will also have significant

impacts on international markets … e.g. the oil market

consommation totale des liquides suivant les scénarios

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 conso de liquides en Mbj

scénario de référence scénario CV scénario F4

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«Factor four »MIE S study

Objective : to reduce by 75% the

GHG emissions in 2050 / 1990

Aim of the study : understand the

mix of policies needed, the choices in competition

2 steps :

  • Sensitivity analysis (SUP, EnE, WiS)
  • Consistent Scenarios (Nuc, NNuc, CoRe, Seq)
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What is at stake?

20 20 40 40 60 60 80 80 10 100 120 120 14 140 16 160 18 180 Real al 20 2000 BAU 20 U 2050 Factor 4 20 4 2050 Tr Tr an anspor t.Agr . Re Residential.Ter t. In Industr y

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E nd-use energy consumption E nd-use energy consumption industry industry

10 20 30 40 50

2000 Without Savings Energy Efficiency Supply F4 Nuclear F4 Cog.+Renewables F4 No Nuclear F4 Sequestr. Coal Oil Gas Electricity Renewables

Mtoe

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E nd-use energy consumption residential & commercial

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 Without Savings Energy Efficiency Supply F4 Nuclear F4 Cog.+Renewables F4 No Nuclear F4 Sequestr. Coal Oil Gas Electricity Renewables

Mtoe

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E nd-use energy consumption agriculture and transportation

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 Without Savings Energy Efficiency Supply F4 Nuclear F4 Cog.+Renewables F4 No Nuclear F4 Sequestr. Oil Gas Electricity Renewables

Mtoe

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Structure of E lectricity generation

50 100 150 200 250 2000 Without Savings Energy Efficiency Supply F4 Nuclear F4 Cog.+Renewables F4 No Nuclear F4 Sequestr. Coal Oil Gas Gas Cog. Electricity Renewables

Mtoe

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Primary E nergy Consumption

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2000 Without Savings Energy Efficiency Supply F4 Nuclear F4 Cog.+Renewables F4 No Nuclear F4 Sequestr.

Coal Oil Gas Electricity Renewables

Mtoe

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CO2 E missions

  • 40

10 60 110 160

2000 Without Savings Energy Efficiency Supply F4 Nuclear F4 Cog.+Renewables F4 No Nuclear F4 Sequestr.

Iron & Steel Industry Residential Commercial Agriculture Transportation Sequestr.

MtC

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Lessons for policy makers (ST and MT)

Forbidden Paths

Power generation based on fossil fuels without

Power generation based on fossil fuels without cogeneration. cogeneration.

A transportation sector essentially based on oil.

A transportation sector essentially based on oil.

Buildings heated with fossil fuels at low efficiency.

Buildings heated with fossil fuels at low efficiency.

An industrial production with a massive use of fossil fuels

An industrial production with a massive use of fossil fuels (steam, furnaces… ). (steam, furnaces… ).

  • Waiting. The crucial sectors fo
  • Waiting. The crucial sectors for further evolutions are the

r further evolutions are the building stock, transportation infrastructures, urban building stock, transportation infrastructures, urban planning, jobs localization planning, jobs localization

Avoid early replacement and stranded assets

Avoid early replacement and stranded assets

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Lessons for policy makers (ST and MT)

Common Obligations

High E

fficiency end uses High E fficiency end uses

Advanced Technologies portfolio

Advanced Technologies portfolio .

Investing in building stock retrofit.

Investing in building stock retrofit.

Switch of industrial processes to electricity.

Switch of industrial processes to electricity.

Raw materials recycling

Raw materials recycling

Transportation : urban planning, modal switch,

Transportation : urban planning, modal switch, fast train to replace SD flights, bits instead of km fast train to replace SD flights, bits instead of km

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E xpected good news

Consumers behavior will be facilitated by new

Consumers behavior will be facilitated by new

  • tech. Development
  • tech. Development

E

lectricity storage (grid renewable integration, E lectricity storage (grid renewable integration, vehicles) vehicles)

CO2 sequestration

CO2 sequestration

Hydrogen ?

Hydrogen ?

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Research

Simulation of dynamic inter-technology

Simulation of dynamic inter-technology competition is key to energy modelling competition is key to energy modelling

E

ndogenous technology is increasingly taken E ndogenous technology is increasingly taken into account in energy models … but remains an into account in energy models … but remains an issue for basic research issue for basic research

Dynamics of assets, infrastructure versus

Dynamics of assets, infrastructure versus consumption patterns poorly described in consumption patterns poorly described in current models current models

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Research

A new IDDRI

A new IDDRI research esearch programme rogramme

  • With strong involvment of the industry

With strong involvment of the industry sector sector

  • Based on both sectoral (POLE

S LE PII-E PE ) Based on both sectoral (POLE S LE PII-E PE ) and general equilibrium (IMACLIM CIRE D) and general equilibrium (IMACLIM CIRE D) models models

  • Low carbon scenarios for industry taking

Low carbon scenarios for industry taking into account changes in infrastructures into account changes in infrastructures and products, and capital turnover and products, and capital turnover