Food Security, Farming, and Climate Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to Change to 2050 Change to Change to 2050 2050 2050 Scenarios, Results, Policy Options Scenarios, Results, Policy Options Gerald C. Nelson Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Theme Leader, CCAFS University of Florida July 15, 2011 Page 1
Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The authors ◦ Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa g gj y g Msangi, and Liangzhi You Project Foresight: The Future of Food and Farming as catalyst for this effort Farming as catalyst for this effort Philip Thornton and Peter Jones for downscaled climate scenarios Jawoo Koo for crop modeling assistance Several anonymous reviewers y Page 2
Food Security Challenges are Food Security Challenges are Unprecedented Unprecedented Population growth ◦ 50 percent more people between 2000 and 2050 ◦ Almost all in developing countries Income growth in developing countries ◦ More demand for high valued food (meat, fish, fruits, vegetables) Climate change – a threat multiplier ◦ Reduced productivity of existing varieties and cropping systems Page 3
IFPRI 2009 results on the costs of IFPRI 2009 results on the costs of adaptation adaptation Unchecked climate change will result in a 20 percent increase in malnourished children in 2050 (25 million more than with perfect mitigation) Public-sector agricultural productivity expenditures in developing countries of over $7 di i d l i i f $7 billion per year are needed to compensate ◦ Public sector research ◦ Public sector research ◦ Irrigation ◦ Rural roads Rural roads Page 4
New messages for sustainable food security New messages for sustainable food security and climate change resilience and climate change resilience d li d li h h ili ili Address poverty and climate change resilience with broad-based income growth Invest in specific kinds of agricultural p g productivity Strengthen international trade agreements g g Page 5
Outline Outline Outline Outline Climate change basics Impacts: crop yields, supply, demand, and trade Assessing the food security challenge with and g y g without climate change The Global Futures Project The Global Futures Project Page 6
CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE BASICS CHANGE BASICS BASICS BASICS Page 7
Average temperatures could increase Average temperatures could increase substantially substantially substa t a y substa t a y SRES scenario SRES scenario SRES scenario SRES scenario differences small differences small until after 2050 until after 2050 (but GCM (but GCM differences big!) differences big!) Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007) Page 8
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION CHANGES BY GCM ARE LARGE CHANGES BY GCM ARE LARGE CHANGES BY GCM ARE LARGE CHANGES BY GCM ARE LARGE Watch Sub Watch Sub- -Saharan Africa, the Amazon Saharan Africa, the Amazon, the U.S. , the U.S. and South and South Asia Asia Page 9
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000 Change in average annual precipitation, 2000- -2050, 2050, CSIRO CSIRO GCM A1B ( CSIRO CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm) GCM A1B ( GCM, A1B (mm) ) ) Page 10
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000 Change in average annual precipitation, 2000- -2050, 2050, MIROC MIROC GCM A1B ( MIROC MIROC GCM, A1B (mm) GCM A1B ( GCM, A1B (mm) ) ) Page 11
GCM temperature results vary as well GCM temperature results vary as well monthly maximum temp change scenarios, MIROC and CSIRO GCMs monthly maximum temp change scenarios, MIROC and CSIRO GCMs 2000 2000-2030 change, 2000-2030 change, CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B 2000-2080 2000 2080 change See http://www.ifpri.org/book-775/climate- change/mapindex for animations of different regions Page 12
BIOPHYSICAL PRODUCTION RESULTS BIOPHYSICAL PRODUCTION RESULTS BIOPHYSICAL PRODUCTION RESULTS BIOPHYSICAL PRODUCTION RESULTS Climate Climate- -change change- -only effects on yield and area only effects on yield and area Page 13
Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, CSIRO CSIRO A1B A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) Page 14
Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, MIROC MIROC A1B A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)
Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, CSIRO CSIRO A1B A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)
Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, MIROC MIROC A1B A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) Page 17
CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURES CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURES CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURES CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURES Overall (economic and demographic) scenarios under Overall (economic and demographic) scenarios under varying climate futures varying climate futures varying climate futures varying climate futures Page 18
Overall scenarios Overall scenarios Plausible futures for population and GDP growth Plausible futures for population and GDP growth Optimistic ◦ High GDP and low population growth Baseline ◦ Medium GDP and medium population growth Pessimistic ◦ Low GDP and high population growth Page 19
Three global and r Three global and regional GDP per egional GDP per- -capita capita growth scenarios growth scenarios h h Global growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%) Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Population Population 1.04 1 04 0 70 0.70 0 35 0.35 GDP 1.91 3.21 3.58 GDP per capita 0.86 2.49 3.22 African GDP per capita growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%) Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Central Africa 2.42 3.92 4.85 Western Africa 2.04 3.63 4.03 E Eastern Africa t Af i 2.72 2 72 4 18 4.18 4 97 4.97 Northern Africa 1.78 2.60 3.49 Southern Africa 0.55 2.98 3.44 Page 20
Five climate Five climate scenarios Five climate Five climate scenarios cenarios cenarios Climate scientists “All scenarios have equal probability.” Our modeling approach, for each overall g pp scenario, use climate scenarios from… ◦ Two GCMs – MIROC (Japanese) and CSIRO (Australian) ◦ Two SRES scenarios – A1B and B1 ◦ Perfect mitigation Page 21
Scenario outcomes Scenario outcomes Scenario outcomes Scenario outcomes 3 overall scenarios each with 5 climate scenarios 15 plausible futures p Page 22
FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTS FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTS FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTS FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTS Combining biophysical and socio Combining biophysical and socio- -economic drivers economic drivers Page 23
Income and population growth drive prices higher Income and population growth drive prices higher ( (price increase (%), 2010 (price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography ( (%) 2010 (%) 2010 2050 B 2050, Baseline economy and demography ) 2050 B l l d d d d h h Page 24
Climate change adds to price increases Climate change adds to price increases (price increase (%), 2010 (price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography 2050, Baseline economy and demography ) M Mean effect from ff f four climate scenarios Page 25
Climate change scenario effects differ Climate change scenario effects differ (price increase (%), 2010 (price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography 2050, Baseline economy and demography ) Mi i Minimum and d maximum effect from four climate scenarios Page 26
Economy and population scenarios Economy and population scenarios alter price outcomes alter price outcomes alter price outcomes alter price outcomes (price increase (%), 2010 (price increase (%), 2010 – – 2050, 2050, Changing economy Changing economy and demography and demography ) Rice price increase smallest Rice price increase smallest in optimistic scenario as Maize price increase largest Asian demand falls with in pessimistic scenario as in pessimistic scenario as h higher income h food demand rises with low income and high population growth h Page 27
Developed Country, Change in Net Exports of Developed Country, Change in Net Exports of Cereals, 2010 Cereals, 2010-2050 (million mt) Cereals, 2010 Cereals, 2010 2050 (million mt) 2050 (million mt) 2050 (million mt) With perfect mitigation, pe ec g o , DC net cereal exports change little between 2010 and 2050 2010 and 2050. With li With climate change, t h DC net cereal exports grow less or decline. Page 28
Assessing food security and climate Assessing food security and climate change outcomes change outcomes change outcomes change outcomes 3,600 Optimistic scenario Pessimistic scenario Developed 3,400 countries 3,200 3,000 , All developing 2,800 Kcals/day countries Perfect mitigation 2,600 2 600 K 2,400 Low-income developing countries countries 2,200 2,000 1,800
Recommend
More recommend
