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Banpu: 3Q16 results
Opportunity Day
28th November 2016
Banpu: 3Q16 results Opportunity Day 28 th November 2016 1 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Banpu: 3Q16 results Opportunity Day 28 th November 2016 1 2 DISCLAIMER The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your reference. This presentation contains forward - looking statements that relate to future
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28th November 2016
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DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your reference. This presentation contains “forward-looking” statements that relate to future events, which are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and
Banpu’s future financial position and results of operations, strategy, plans, objectives, goals and targets, future developments in the markets where Banpu participates or is seeking to participate and any statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words “believe”, “expect”, “aim”, “intend”, “will”, “may”, “project”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “predict”, “seek”, “should” or similar words or expressions, are forward-looking statements. The future events referred to in these forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control, which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements, or industry results to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding our present and future business strategies and the environment in which Banpu will operate in the future and are not a guarantee of future performance. Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. Banpu does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or
may not contain all material information concerning the Company. Banpu makes no representation, warranty or prediction that the results anticipated by such forward-looking statements will be achieved, and such forward-looking statements represent, in each case, only one if many possible scenarios and should not be viewed as the most likely or standard scenario. No assurance given that future events will occur or our assumptions are correct. Actual results may materially differ from those provided in the forward- looking statements and indications of past performance are not indications of future performance. In no event shall Banpu be responsible or liable for the correctness of any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this material. Banpu makes no representation whatsoever about the opinion or statements of any analyst or other third party. Banpu does not monitor or control the content of third party opinions or statements and does not endorse or accept any responsibility for the content or use of any such opinion or statement. Banpu’s securities have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the securities laws of any state of the United States, and may not be offered or sold within the United States, except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of such act or such laws. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell Banpu’s securities in any jurisdiction.
4 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Takeaways 6
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IPO ALLOCATION*
Banpu shareholders
32% 20% 22% 26%
International investors Retail Local institutional
Received 93% acceptance from Banpu shareholders Raised $389M for: debt repayment $334M, business expansion $28M, working capital $9M and other expenses 1 $18M Well-diversified investor base with international investors Strong investor support, THB 21/sh top-end of IPO price range
Note: *28th October 2016
1 Including legal fees, underwriting fees and financial advisory fees
6
6
Realized market cap.
1st day of trading
BPP will provide capital for future growth options Recapitalized balance sheet and reduced gearing* Separate disclosure, separate analyst presentation starting next quarter
*Consolidated net debt to equity *At closing price THB 27.25/share
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PRODUCTIVITY / OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENT (2013 – Present) COST RATIONALIZATION (2013 – Present)
Own mining contractor Bharinto ramp-up Embalut and Jorong reserves
Logistics, infrastructure improvement 34% cost reduction: from US$65/t in 2013 to US$43/t in 2016* Stripping ratio optimization Contractor management and negotiation Step Change Productivity Portfolio optimization Record production: Mandalong, Clarence New LW at Springvale Production cost from US$50/t in 2013 to US$36/t in 2016* Logistics optimization Mining bolter New railspur Singapore office
China/ Mongolia Coal MS&L 1
Note: *2016 target
1 Marketing, sales & logistics
Infrastructure & logistics improvement to invigorate productivity and maximize benefits from coal prices upturn Continuous cost reduction efforts through process
management
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Note: 1 As of 10 November 2016
Supply drivers – short term, seasonal Supply drivers - structural Demand drivers – short term, seasonal
Supply restrictions in SA, Russia & Colombia
Delayed reaction from production cuts Thermal coal switch back to metallurgical use
Cost-cutting to curtail quick production increases in every country
Newcastle Coal Index 1
Unit: US$/t 160 40 140 120 100 60 80 2010 2016
+c.130%
Power and Glencore settled contract at US$94.75/t
Unplanned replacement purchases China’s capacity removal and production caps Cutbacks by major exporters and market
Accelerated catch-up purchases from low inventory
Prolonged wet season in Indonesia Winter season
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
9
2017 compared to 2016
to metallurgical market
China/ Mongolia Coal MS&L 1
assets
− New tonnage from projects advancements (i.e. Airly stage 2, Neubecks) − Resumption of Newstan and Angus Place
SHORT-TERM OPTIONS MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM OPTIONS
Note: 1 Marketing, sales & logistics
BANPU GROUP
“Choose & Focus”
Adjust coal product to maximize average selling price. Maintain focus on productivity improvement and cost rationalization
10 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Takeaways 6
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OTHERS CHINA EUROPE OTHER N.ASIA INDIA
Note: Includes anthracite and lignite Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2016
+13 (19) (7) (14)
+8
+35
GLOBAL
rising domestic coal prices
increased domestic coal production and high coal prices hampered coal imports
retirements and increased renewable energy
expected to add c.11Mt of demand
and plant maintenance lower coal burn
GEOGRAPHY CHANGE 2015-16 (MT.) COMMENTS
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demand limited export growth
S.AFRICA INDONESIA RUSSIA COLOMBIA
AUSTRALIA
restrict export growth
export
GLOBAL
+8 +7
+1
USA OTHERS
interrupted supply from time to time
tighten supply
Note: includes anthracite and lignite Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2016
to rethink about growing mining capacity
GEOGRAPHY CHANGE 2015-16 (MT.) COMMENTS
13
EUROPE USA
+8
SOUTH AFRICA
+35
+13
INDIA COLOMBIA CHINA INDONESIA AUSTRALIA OTHER N. ASIA OTHERS
PACIFIC +27
ATLANTIC
SUPPLY DEMAND
Unit: Mt
+1
OTHERS
+7
RUSSIA
14
250 350 450 550 650 750 2014 2015 2016 > 5,800 kcal/kg > 5,500 kcal/kg > 5,000 kcal/kg
704 678 600
Note: *includes anthracite and lignite imports/exports Source: www.sxcoal.com/cn 9 November 2016
CHINA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS/EXPORTS*
Sources: Banpu MS&L estimates
Unit: Mt
spikes.
the efforts to stabilize coal price 8 Sep: allow 74 mines to increase production 23 Sep: allow 791 mines to lift production between 276 and 330 working days per year in Q4 but have been ineffective as spot prices continue to rise .
truck loading policy – cut 6 tons freight volume per truck.
as winter demand step in and production increased will take time.
policy
CHINA DOMESTIC COAL PRICES
Unit: RMB/t QUARTERLY (ANNUALIZED) ANNUALLY IMPORT EXPORT
201 153 160 167 145 148 176 221 1Q15 5 5 2 3Q14 199 4Q14 4 6 4 2Q16 3Q16 10 4Q15 6 3Q15 2Q15 5 1Q16 156 191 2016e 8 2015 4 2014 5 229 2014 2015 2016e 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 2014 2015 2016
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INDIA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS*
Unit: Mt
and high stocks in domestic coal market due to weak demand and high domestic coal production
low hydro as monsoon passed
power generation capacity in July-August but capacity utilization remains low.
power off-take will remain low
domestic coal.
but private coal-fired power plants in coastal locations and cement industry will continue using imported coal.
Note: *includes lignite grade imports Sources:: HDR, Banpu MS&L Estimates
QUARTERLY (ANNUALIZED) ANNUALLY
168 197 171 180 142 161 149 171 134 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 1Q16 3Q15 3Q16 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 163 164 150 2016e 2015 2014 2014 2015 2016e 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
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SUPPLY SEASONALITY
constrains supply increase in Indonesia, Russia and Australia
WINTER SEASON
increases electricity demand in India and China
SHORT-TERM IMPACT MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM IMPACT
SUPPLY DELAYS
construction ( >1 year)
SMALL PRICE SPREADS
between premium and off-spec coals are unlikely to induce new expansion in premium coal
CHINA’S POLICY
will remain
COMMERCIALIZATION
supports LT seaborne traded coal demand
STEEL DEMAND
leads to sales of thermal coal into metallurgical coal market
HIGH SEA FREIGHTS
constrain sales of Atlantic basin coals into Asia-Pacific market
Demand drivers Supply drivers
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Notes: * Excluding Mongolia coal THAILAND HK CHINA TAIWAN ITALY
7.0 0.1
INDIA
2.9 Mt 2.3 Mt 11.1 Mt 0.5 Mt 2.4 Mt 0.1 Mt 6.7 Mt 2.2 Mt
JAPAN
5.4
MALAYSIA
0.3 Mt
INDONESIA
3.7 Mt
PHILIPPINES AUSTRALIA
8.7 Mt
OTHERS
0.5 1.2 1.7 Mt Indonesia coal Australia coal China coal
Japan, 15% Korea, 5% Taiwan, 5% China , 25% Australia, 19% SE Asia 19% India 6% Others, 6%
Notes:
* Sales from Indonesia are included on 100% basis, sales from Australia and
China are included on equity basis ** Illustrative target *** Include coal sales from domestic production in China S KOREA
***
COAL SALES* SOURCE – DESTINATION ANALYSIS 2016 GLOBAL COAL SALES* 2016 BY REGION
1.5 0.8 2.3 Mt 1.3 0.9 1.5 4.0
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Fixed 95% 4% 1%
Fixed Indexed
Mt*
Unsold
52% 48% 33% 2% 1%
Indexed Fixed Export Domestic: long-term export parity
Mt*
Domestic: legacy Unpriced
*Target sales
AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL
*Target sales
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Note: * Included post shipment price adjustments as well as traded coal
** The Newcastle Export Index (previously known as the Barlow Jonker Index – BJI)
bullish market driven by Chinese production cap policy as well as supply tightness – ITM ASP: US$51.35/t* (+11% QoQ) – CEY ASP: A$67.00/t* (+8% QoQ) – NEX (Nov 10, 2016)**: US$112.9/t
gain during second half of Q3 and reached a four and a half year high level during Oct 16
Unit: US$/t
BANPU ASP VS BENCHMARK PRICES COMMENTS 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Monthly NEX Quarterly ITM ASP Quarterly Centennial ASP
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
20 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Key takeaway 6
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Wollongong
PKCT Airly Neubeck Angus Place Clarence Springvale Mandalong Myuna Newstan
Sydney
PWCS
Newcastle
Inglenook
Project Underground mine Port Power station Road Rail C&M 4
WESTERN OPERATIONS: 2016e: 5.5 Mt NORTHERN OPERATIONS: 2016e: 7.4 Mt NCIG
2016e output: 12.9 Mt
Production
(3Q15: 3.2 Mt).
conditions at Myuna and an extended longwall changeover at Springvale – gateroad conditions and regulatory changes to ventilation requirements.
efficiency improvements, with two further output records achieved (Airly and Clarence). ASP
~A$59/t – with the ASP benefitting from a new export-parity priced domestic contract (replacing a lower priced legacy contract) and improving export prices.
and 19% QoQ
65%:35% (2015: 62%:38%).
Note 1: Mannering placed on “Care & Maintenance” November 2012 – benefitting from new production sharing arrangement with neighbouring mine. Note 2: NCIG = Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group; PWCS = Port Waratah Coal Services; PKCT = Port Kembla Coal Terminal. Note 3: Newstan (1 August 2014) and Angus Place (February 2015 ) placed on care & maintenance.
3Q16 YoY QoQ Sales revenue A$236 M ▲12% ▲32% EBITDA A$34 M ▼2% ▼1% PBT A$(9) M ▼5% ▼23% NPAT A$(6) M ▼1% ▼13% Gearing
(Net debt to net debt + book value of equity)
39%
2016e OUTPUT (ROM EQUITY BASIS) KEY UPDATES FINANCIAL SUMMARY
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MANDALONG
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1 CV: 6,700 kcal/kg2
Currently concluding a LW changeover. YTD production is 6% lower
mining conditions. In response to prevailing conditions:
– Implemented a shift roster change for productivity (increasing
– First of the two proposed super panels introduced into the
Fassifern seam in late August, reaching full production in September; and
– A second Super Panel is planned to be introduced shortly
Note: 1 ROM output on an equity basis 2 CV figures are air-dried basis 3 Longwall LW3 MOVE SCHEDULE
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 1Q17e Mth 1 Mth 2 Mth 3 2 wks 2 wks 1.8 1.2 1.7 1.3 2Q16 3Q15 4Q16e 3Q16 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 3Q16 4Q16e 3Q15 2Q16
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1 CV: 6,700 kcal/kg2
MYUNA COMMENTS
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e
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COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1 CV: 6,700 kcal/kg 2
extended LW changeover due to gateroad conditions and regulatory changes. YTD production is 21% higher. On track for record year. While Court dismissed legal challenge to Springvale approval process, an appeal has been lodged. Hearing not expected until mid-2017.
daily production record. YTD production is 6% higher; Clarence on track for 2.9Mtpa
monthly record achieved since re-opening in June 2014.
Note: 1 ROM output on an equity basis: Angus Place and Springvale 50%, Clarence 85% and Charbon 95% 2 CV figures are air-dried basis 3 Longwall
SPRINGVALE COMMENTS
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1 CV: 6,700 kcal/kg 2
OTHER OPERATIONS
0.4 0.8 0.3 4Q16e 3Q15 2Q16 0.0 3Q16 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
CLARENCE
3Q15 4Q16e 3Q16
AIRLY
2Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 1Q17e
LW 3 MOVE SCHEDULE
Mth 1 Mth 2 Mth 3 12 wks 4 wks 5 wks 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e
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productivity, driven by step-change in productivity programme and increasing LW automation.
with daily production records at Airly and Clarence.
unit costs.
Springvale and ventilation regulatory changes;
at Clarence and Myuna.
distribution costs and increasing efficiency of distribution chain.
Note: 1 These figures do not include selling, distribution and royalty costs; based on ‘sold’ production 2 Open-cut production ceased in CY2015
Unit: A$/t 2015 2016 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
2Q
Stores and supplies General expense
3Q
54 Labor Cash overhead Repair and maintenance 49 Coal handling & preparation 45 52
1Q
50
FY14
49 52
4Q
Depreciation 46
2Q FY16
48
FY15 FY13 3Q
44 Open-cut 2 51
1Q
AVERAGE PRODUCTION COST 1 COMMENTS
25 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Takeaways 6
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East Kalimantan
Balikpapan Palangkaraya Banjarmasin
Central Kalimantan South Kalimantan
Kitadin - Embalut 0.9 Mt Indominco 16.0 Mt Trubaindo 5.8 Mt Bharinto 2.5 Mt Jorong 1.0 Mt
Jorong Port Bontang Coal Terminal Captive coal- fired power project
2016 target: 26.2 Mt
target due to rain affecting mine production.
than target due to higher rainfall at mine area.
than target due to bad weather and sliding.
Samarinda
PRODUCTION OUTPUT 2016 KEY UPDATES FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Bunyut Port
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most mines reached highest levels in 6 years since 2010, with September’s level up steeply
average rainfall in 1H16, Indominco’s rainfall in 3Q16 was higher than expected, which impacts output
Jorong achieved production record despite heavy
Bharinto and Embalut yielded slightly lower-than- target production
Unit: Millimeter Unit: Millimeter Unit: Millimeter Unit: Millimeter
INDOMINCO TRUBAINDO & BHARINTO JORONG EMBALUT
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 100 200 300 400 500 600 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
2010–15 average rainfalls 2016 rainfalls 2010-15 rainfall range
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0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
CV: 5300 kcal/kg** STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
4.6 13.8 Note: *Output figures are 100% basis **CV figures are air-dried basis JORONG E BLOCK TDMY W BLOCK INDOMINCO TDMY TRUBAINDO BHARINTO TRUBAINDO BHARINTO EMBALUT JORONG EMBALUT EAST WEST
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* CV: 5950 - 6250 kcal/kg** COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* CV: 6550 - 6700 kcal/kg** COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* CV: 5800 kcal/kg** 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
3.8 14.4 11.4
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)
2.7
7.8 9.0
2.0
17.7 7.1 8.4 6.8 7.9 4.3
2.2
13.4 8.3 8.0 5.5 5.0 13.9
2.4
12.1 7.2 10.5 7.6 5.7 16.9
0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 2.9 3.5 3.3 3.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 3.8 4.0 3.7 4.4 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.6
0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8
INDOMINCO - BONTANG TRUBAINDO - BHARINTO EMBALUT - JORONG
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e
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INDICATIVE AVERAGE TOTAL COSTS COMMENTS
2Q16 mainly due to:
Indominco and Embalut due to higher rainfall
US$0.42/ltr to US$0.46/ltr
efforts through process
distance minimization, explosive cost reduction, contractor management and negotiation
reduction in unit costs
Note: * Repair and maintenance, salaries and allowances, etc.
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Mining cost 43
4Q
48
FY14 FY16 3Q 3Q 2Q
59
FY13
42 42
FY15
46
1Q
62 Other production cost*
1Q
50 52 52 Depreciation & amortisation Coal handling & preparation 44
2Q
SG&A expenses
Unit: US$/t 2015 2016
30 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Takeaways 6
31
Hebi
1.9 2.5 2.8 2.3
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e
Summary 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sales (Mt) 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.1 ASP (US$/t) 41 37 41 50 Revenue (US$M) *** 91 69 96 104 COGS (US$/t) 42 36 38 36 EBITDA (US$M) 12 21 26 36 Gaohe HEBI 1.2 Mt GAOHE 10 Mt
Hebi
improvements: enhance dust control in working areas; closely monitoring gas and CO2 in development areas adjacent to goaf 1 and increase safety management on gas control Tsant Uul
confirm product specifications
feasibility study and market study Unst Khudag and Altai Nuurs
coal mining licenses
modeling and development
conversion and power facility scenarios incl. technical and market related studies
Unit: Mt ROM
Note: * Output figures are ROM output (100% basis) ** CV figures are air-dried basis *** Exchange rate of 3Q16 is RMB 6.67/USD
0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e
CHINA COAL 2016 PRODUCTION 3Q15 – 3Q16 CHINA COAL OUTPUT GAOHE OPERATIONAL UPDATES HEBI OPERATIONAL UPDATES
Operation BEIJING
Gaohe
good mining conditions, as well as Gaohe being named on e of 74 “Advanced Coalmines” in China, allowing for production to increase, in times tight supply.
reform, as well as customers’ demand better than expected during peak summer season.
Note: 1 Part of a mine from which the mineral has been partially
2 Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia
feasibility study Project
MONGOLIA
MONGOLIA PROJECTS UPDATES
32 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Takeaways 6
33
CHINA – SOLAR
from solar
THAILAND
EBITDA of US$46M JAPAN – SOLAR
construction reached10.8% as
achieved project financing LAOS
EBITDA of US$60M CHINA
EBITDA of US$66M
reached 28% (as
expected to COD in 1H18
THAILAND LAOS CHINA JAPAN SOLAR CHINA SOLAR
34
* Based on Banpu Power’s 50% interest
FX loss
20 9
USD million
EQUITY INCOME AVAILABILITY PAYMENT (AP) TOTAL REVENUE ENERGY PAYMENT (EP) DISPATCH (%) EBITDA EBIT
56.1 69.9 51.5 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 139.9 153.4 125.0 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 36.2 50.6 34.4 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 37.2 48.9 46.1 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
14
78.1 76.7 66.5 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
FX gain
2 11
3Q15
3Q16 2Q16 12 21
FX loss
99.3 99.5 98.3 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 Q-Q : -18.5% Y-Y : -10.7% Q-Q : -5.7% Y-Y : 23.9% Q-Q : -32.0% Y-Y : -5.0% Q-Q : -13.3% Y-Y : -14.9% Q-Q : -26.3% Y-Y : -8.2% Q-Q: -55.0% Y-Y: -35.7%
35
Q-Q : -23.8% Y-Y : 103.4%
* Based on Banpu Power’s 40% interest
14 2Q16 3Q15 0.4 3Q16 6
FX loss FX gain
13 2
23.6 93.2 63.3 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 12.1 43.6 45.6 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 35.7 137.3 109.0 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 28.5 76.6 59.5 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 29.5 78.7 60.0 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
93.3 100.0 100.0 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 USD million
EQUITY INCOME AVAILABILITY PAYMENT (AP) TOTAL REVENUE ENERGY PAYMENT (EP) DISPATCH (%) EBITDA EBIT
Q-Q : -20.6% Y-Y : 205.3% Q-Q : -32.1% Y-Y : 168.2% Q-Q: -84.6% Y-Y: 122.2% Q-Q : -22.3% Y-Y : 108.8% Q-Q : 4.6% Y-Y : 276.9%
FX loss
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
36
Note: *Unaudited figures, **Including transportation
Luannan
Hebei Province Power 100 MW Steam 128 tph (Banpu 100% )
Zhengding
Hebei Province Power 73 MW Steam 370 tph Chilled water 35 MW (Banpu 100%)
Zouping
Shandong Province Power 100 MW Steam 450 tph (Banpu 70%) (RMB/t)
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
3Q16 sales and EBITDA lower QoQ and YoY due to decline in power sales for lower utilization and higher coal price. 3Q16 sales higher QoQ and YoY due to increase in sales of cooling water. However, higher coal price lead to EBITDA lower than 2Q16 and YoY. 3Q16 sales lower QoQ and YoY due to decline in power sales for lower utilization. Meanwhile, higher coal price lead to lower QoQ and YoY EBITDA . COAL PRICE** UTILIZATION (RMB/kwh) EBITDA (RMB M) (RMB M) (hours) POWER TARIFF SALES* BIC
19 21 21 3Q16 2Q16 3Q15 1,149 3Q15 3Q16 2Q16 1,027 1,043 0.39 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 0.41 0.39 342 316 322 3Q16 2Q16 3Q15 59 58 56 3Q15 3Q16 2Q16 0.32 3Q16 3Q15 0.35 2Q16 0.32 310 294 295 3Q15 3Q16 2Q16 1,546 3Q16 2Q16 3Q15 1,602 1,403 99 104 105 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 25 36 39 3Q15 3Q16 2Q16 0.38 2Q16 0.40 0.37 3Q16 3Q15 454 401 427 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 1,504 3Q16 2Q16 1,469 1,702 22 23 23 3Q16 2Q16 3Q15 48 52 51 3Q16 2Q16 3Q15 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 1,043 1,149 1,027 1,602 1,403 1,546 1,469 1,702 1,504
37
703 635 569 458 426 415
10 16 11 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
1,171 1,078 1,045
Steam
Power
Other Solar - Japan SLG Hongsa BLCP 499 692 316 (322) 485 68 (4) (0) (76) 128 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
172 1,101
Power Others Steam Solar Solar SALES SHARE OF PROFIT FROM JOINT VENTURES THB million Q-Q : -3.0% Y-Y : -10.8% Q-Q : -53.5% Y-Y : 197.6% $33.2 $30.5 $30.0 $4.9 $31.2 $14.7
512
BLCP
Hongsa
121% YoY Solar-Japan*
Note: *3Q16 one-off FX gain
38
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
644 1,526
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
96 1,335 489
Q-Q : -42.6% Y-Y : 36.0% Q-Q : -63.4% Y-Y : 409.4% THB million
EBITDA NET PROFIT AFTER TAX 876 $18.3 $43.4 $25.1 $2.7 $37.8 $14.0 Impacts of:
power demand
maintenance
39 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Takeaways 6
40
slow inventory build-up from falling production. However, weather has been warmer and tends to damp demand in autumn
below-average increases for 21 consecutive weeks as strong underlying consumption and falling output have rebalanced the market
Source: EIA Unit: US$/Mmbtu
$2.73 27 Oct 16
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
YTD average $2.41 Q1 Q2 Q3
Unit: Bcf
AVERAGE HENRY HUB PRICE 2016 U.S. TOTAL NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION NATURAL GAS IN UNDERGROUND STORAGE
0% 5% 10% 2,000 4,000 6,000 2015 2016 % Increase compared to 5-years average 5-years (2011-2015) maximum billion cubic feet Working Gas in Storage billion cubic feet
3,909 Bcf
(As of 21st Oct 2016)
Below-average increases Unit: Bcf/d
40 60 80 2015 2016
Marcellus “Other Shale Gas” Production Other Natural Gas Production 3% decreases from Jan-16
76 Bcf/d
(As of Sep 2016)
2015 2016 2015 2016
41
Note: 1 British thermal unit 2 Pipeline recovery income
Midstream
4.92
Upstream Unit: Trn btu 1
3 Lease operating expense and work over expenses 4 Royalty, taxes, marketing and transportation expenses, and administrative expense
Operating expense 3 Selling and admin 4
Upstream Midstream 2 Ebitda
2.86 2.14 0.16 0.23 0.81 1.26 1.89 2.30 2Q16 3Q16 3.65 5.28 2.03 2.89 2Q16 3Q16
As a result of strong asset performance, the fund sent first capital return back to Banpu: US$1M (early Oct)
TOTAL REVENUE EBITDA
Unit: US$M Unit: US$M
EBITDA BREAKDOWN
Unit: US$/Mmbtu
UNIT PRODUCTION
3.31 4.92 0.34 0.36 2Q16 3Q16
42 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Takeaways 6
43
USD million
404 295 367 160 140 184 34 31 30 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
Note: Revenue from others is included in Coal Indonesia.
598 469 586
Coal Australia +31% QoQ +15% YoY Coal Indonesia +24% QoQ
Power
Gas Power Coal Australia Coal Indonesia
Gas +25% QoQ +25% QoQ
44
61 33 63 (0) (5) 3 30 30 28 13 40 19 2 3 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
USD million
105 99
Coal - China Coal - Indonesia +3% YoY +91% QoQ Coal - Australia
Power
+46% YoY
115
+9% YoY +16% QoQ
Gas Power Coal Australia Coal China Coal Indonesia
Gas - USA +50% QoQ +160% QoQ
45
COAL 17 OPERATING PROFIT
52
(35) FINANCE CHARGES RECURRING PROFIT
17
NPAT NON- RECURRING ITEMS POWER 35
(9)
COAL 26 OPERATING PROFIT
32
(33) FINANCE CHARGES RECURRING PROFIT
(1) (2)
NPAT NON- RECURRING ITEMS POWER 6
(1)
3Q15 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
USD million
2Q16 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
USD million
8
Non-recurring items
Non-recurring items
19
2
NON- RECURRING ITEMS NPAT OPERATING PROFIT
POWER 15
RECURRING PROFIT FINANCE CHARGES
(34) 53 COAL 38
+140% Y-Y +127% Q-Q +48% Y-Y
Non-recurring items:
(17)
3Q16 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
USD million
Note : * Interest rate swap
46
3Q16 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET DEBT FX STRUCTURE
USD Fixed 44% AUD Fixed 3% THB Fixed 16% USD Float 22% AUD Float 8% THB Float 7% Total gross debt: US$3.58 billion As of 30 Sep 2016 (reduced to US$3.20 billion post-IPO) 1.18 1.40 1.34 Net debt / Equity 1 (x) 54% 58% 57% Net market gearing 2 (%) Net debt / EBITDA (x) 4.40 5.90 2014 2015 3Q16
GEARING RATIOS
Note: 1 Net debt to book value of shareholders' equity 2 Net debt to enterprise value (enterprise value = net debt + market capitalization as at 30 September 2016)
USD million
6,621 2,375 403 1,066 3,583
TOTAL ASSETS TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY ASSETS TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY TOTAL BORROWINGS OTHER LIABILITIES CASH EQUIVALENT
47 2.2 Australia operations Coal business Investor focus 2 1 2.3 Indonesia operations 2.4 China, Mongolia operations Gas business 4 Financial summary 5 Power business 2.1 Coal market 3 Takeaways 6
48
POWER IPO SUCCESS Top-end of price range; up c.30% on first day; US$0.4 bn capital raised POWER GROWTH Portfolio targeted at 4.3GWe by 2025; >20% renewables COAL PRICE Has more than doubled in 2016, highest since 2013; outlook strong POWER PROJECTS Progressing well: Japan solar, China solar, China coal-fired SUSTAINABLE STRATEGY Integrated pan-Asia- Pacific energy player; balancing conventional with new energy GAS INVESTMENT Chaffee Corners: first dividend FINANCIAL STRENGTH Balance sheet strong: capital from IPO; warrant exercise; gearing down CASHFLOW RECOVERY Consolidated EBITDA US$115M up 16% QoQ
49
BANPU POWER PRESENTATION FY16 Banpu Power presentation
BANPU POWER Q&A Q&A regarding Banpu Power (excluding questions about Banpu Group) BANPU PRESENTATION FY16 Banpu presentation
summary BANPU Q&A Q&A regarding Banpu Group (excluding questions about Banpu Power) 15 MINS BREAK
9.30 am 10.10 am 10.30 am 10.45 am 12.10 pm 12.30 pm
50
51
EXTERNAL EVENTS CORPORATE EVENTS DIRECT INDIRECT ADB cuts Thai growth forecast First investment in unconventional shale gas 1Q16 result Announcement on China solar projects 2H15 dividend paid Bt0.5/share Completion of rights offering & capital increase warrants issue China announced reduction in coal mine working days to 276 Indonesia’s Sep HBA hit new high at $63.9/Mt Vietnam’s July coal imports surged 141% YoY to 1.3Mt Increasing NEX since end of June BOT maintained policy rates at 1.50% BoA Thailand raised Thai GDP forecast to 3.2% from 2.8% China’s mild inflation created room to boost economy Moody’s lowered Thailand’s economic strength to ‘high(-)’ from ‘high’ FED maintained rates at 0.25-0.5% level Voters approved military- backed constitution Announced plans to acquire additional 5% stake in Chaffee Corners 2Q16 F/S report and Analyst meeting Signed solar power R&D projects MOU with KMITL, Huawei and Techen First day trade
Announced details on rights offering
Commercial
Solar power projects in China Report on utilization
from capital increase Beginning
period 1st warrant exercise date 2Q16 3Q16
52
Note: ITM and Centennial revenues are consolidated in Banpu income statement. Australia Coal – Third party coal sales included. *NEX = Newcastle Export Index (formerly Barlow Jonker Index or BJI) It is relevant but not linked to China Coal’s ASP Note: Hebi and Gaohe revenues are not consolidated in Banpu income statement. SALES (Mt) AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/t) excl. VAT REVENUE (US$M) 48 49 38 48 50 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
ASP
49 45 39 41 49 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
NEX*
59 53 51 52 67
Equity basis Equity basis Domestic Export
2.3 1.8 2.4 1.8 2.3 3.4 2.8 3.4 3.0 3.6 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 SALES (Mt) AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (A$/t) REVENUE (A$M) 208 177 216 179 236 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
ASP
61 63 63 59 65 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
NEX*
59 53 51 52 67
Equity basis Equity basis Domestic Export
5.9 6.1 5.8 5.4 6.0 6.8 7.1 6.9 6.2 7.0 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 SALES (Mt)
100% basis Domestic Export
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/t) REVENUE (US$M) 382 383 331 278 349 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
NEX* ASP
59 53 51 52 67
100% basis
56 53 48 45 50 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
INDONESIA COAL (ITM) AUSTRALIA COAL (CENTENNIAL) CHINA COAL
53
Note: AUD exchange rate – US$ 0.7413/A$ (average of 3Q16)
Coal sales Gross margin
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
160 184 Indonesia coal gross margin: 36%
37% 34%
USD million USD million
Australia coal gross margin: 22% 140
32%
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
30% 37%
347 388 283
36% 28% 28% 22%
AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL
54
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
36% 30% 37% 347
Indonesia Coal 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 Indominco
32% 27% 34% 180 163 179
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
25% 46% 37% 107
Trubaindo
109 72
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 Jorong
41% 33% 40% 9 9 7
52% 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
10 28% 28% 26%
Kitadin
16 12 388 283
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 Bharinto
43 27 29% 43%
52% 3Q152Q163Q16 Tandung Mayang
0.0
93% 51% 32 0.4 44 45%
USD million
55
Dispatch (%) AAH (hours)
4,345 4,242 3,680 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
Commercial availability (%) Net generation (Gwh) Coal consumption (‘000 tonnes) Heat rate (kj/KWh)
2,923 2,847 2,477 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 1,090 1,068 917 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 9,405 9,493 9,396 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 99.3 99.5 98.3 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 97.4 99.9 96.5 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
56
Dispatch (%) AAH (hours)
1,229 4,207 4,730 3,249 4,585 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
Commercial availability (%) Net generation (Gwh) Coal consumption (‘000 tonnes) Heat rate (kj/KWh)
EGAT EDL
93.3 100.0 100.0 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 12,676 12,274 12,532 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 62.7 63.9 71.2 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 903 2,187 2,199 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 1,086 2,683 2,778 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
57
Utilization (hours) Electricity sold (GWh) Steam sold (‘000 tonnes)
51.4 54.9 51.2 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 8,473 8,704 7,322 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
Coal consumption (‘000 tonnes) Heat rate (kj/KWh)
100.8 125.1 147.4 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 90.4 98.3 86.8 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 1,043 1,149 1,027 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
58
Electricity sold (GWh) Steam sold (‘000 tonnes) Coal consumption (‘000 tonnes) Heat rate (kj/KWh) Utilization (hours)
1,415 1,403 1,546 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 98.6 90.5 95.7 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 179.2 171.3 165.9 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 8,692 8,175 8,255 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 66.5 59.7 66.5 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
59
Coal consumption (‘000 tonnes) Heat rate (kj/KWh) Electricity sold (GWh) Steam sold (‘000 tonnes) Utilization (hours)
1,469 1,702 1,504 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 117.0 136.5 118.8 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 701.2 725.0 635.0 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 4,457 4,684 4,900 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 106.9 118.7 108.7 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
60
CURRENCY EXPOSURE NPAT IMPACT 3Q16 (US$M) APPROXIMATE FX EXPOSURE (US$M) NPAT 5% SENSITIVITY 3Q16 (US$M)
Banpu: THB bond and others +2 +70
AUD IDR THB & OTHER+15 +0.2
+18
NET AUD IDR THB & OTHERNET LIABILITY NET ASSET
Oct
Assuming 5% depreciation of local currencies against USD
ITMG: IDR asset and liabilities CEY: USD asset Net
61
Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown. *BIC = Banpu Investment China 11 22 26 10
3 4 1 5 1 2 1 3 3 1 9 25 18 3 18 35 23 28 31
Jorong
55 43 79 60 31 50 49 25
71 50 33 59
50% 40%
Power & New energy
40% 45% 70% Gaohe Hebi BLCP HONGSA BIC* Zouping
5 6 5 5
Zhengding
9 10 3 4
Luannan
8 9 3 4
& holding companies 65% Indominco Trubaindo Kitadin AACI OVERHEAD 100%
7 40 34 34
Consolidated NOT consolidated
21 23 11 13
AUD mil
All figures are 100% basis except for Centennial which is equity basis
115 113 99 115
Bharinto
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
USD million
62
Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown.
2,56 2 2,122 2,203 2,22 5
225 226 187 110 & holding companies 2,893 3,241 3,212 3,181 AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL CHINA COAL MONGOLIA COAL THAILAND POWER LAOS POWER CHINA POWER
Gaohe Hebi HONGSA BLCP BIC*
100% 65% 45% 40% 100% 50% 40% 100% 739 709 761 752
315 275 269 231
AUD mil
Consolidated NOT consolidated Net debt Net cash
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
USD million
63
Sales revenues – Power Cost of sales Gross profit* GPM Sales revenues – Coal Total sales revenues* Gross profit – Coal Gross profit – Power GPM – Power GPM – Coal
YoY%
Note: * Including other businesses
30% QoQ% 25% 27% 34%
34 (400) 198 33% 598 557 187 11 33% 34% 30 (405) 181 31% 586 544 166 9 30% 30%
USD million
3Q15 3Q16 2Q16 31 (330) 140 30% 469 429 124 10 32% 29% Sales revenues – Gas
4 Gross profit – Gas
1 GPM – Gas
36%
64
Gross profit GPM SG&A Royalty Other income EBIT EBITDA EBIT - Coal EBIT - Power Income from associates EBITDA - Coal EBITDA - Power Mining property EBITDA - Gas 198 33% (78) (60) 5 68 105 58 10 5 92 (1) 13
31% (72) (56) 6 71 115 54 17 17 93 (6) 19 3 30% 23% 17% QoQ% 81%
68%
n.m.
66%
4% 9% YoY% 2% 39% n.m.
USD million
3Q15 3Q16 2Q16 140 30% (69) (44) 9 58 98 20 38 26 57 (4) 40 2
65
Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses
EBIT Interest expenses Financial expenses Minorities Non-recurring items* Income tax (non - core business) Net profit before FX Income tax (core business) Net profit before extra items FX translations Net Profit EPS (US$/share) 4% YoY% n.m. n.m. 0% Deferred tax income (expenses) 23% QoQ% 106%
57% Gain (Loss) on Derivatives Transactions 71 (32) (2) (11) (0) (0) 10 (15) 11 (8) 2 0.000 7 (8) 68 (31) (2) (10) (1) (3) (20) (14) 11 18 (2) (0.001) (10) (18) 58 (33) (2) (5) (2)
7 10 5 3 (10) 8 0.002
USD million
3Q15 3Q16 2Q16
66
USD million
Cost of sales Gross profit GPM Royalty SG&A EBIT Sales revenue Sales volume (Mt) Other income Interest expenses Financial expenses Gain (loss) on exchange rate Net profit Gain (loss) on derivative Other expenses YoY%
8%
6% 15% 11% n.m. QoQ% 3%
33%
19% 31%
n.m. Deferred tax income (4.4)
40.3 22% (11.6) (24.1) 6.6 3.6 183.9 2.0 (6.5) (0.8) (0.8) (5.0) 2.1 (4.1)
0.7 (8.7)
44.8 28% (10.8) 9.8 3.4 160.2 1.8 (6.9) (0.7) (5.8)
3Q16 2Q16 (100.6) 39.3 28% (8.8) (24.6) 8.0 3.0 139.9 2.1 (6.6) (0.8) 0.2 (6.4) 1.4
67
THB million
Cost of sales Gross profit GPM Equity income Administrative Expense EBIT Sales revenue Sales revenue Dividend income Interest expenses Financial expenses Income tax – Core Business Net profit NCI/Minorities Other income YoY%
17% 197% 57%
QoQ%
18%
3Q15 (793.9) 377.0 32% 172.4 (186.1) 483.6 1,170.9
(0.1) (97.0) 96.1 (141.7) 120.2 3Q16 (731.7) 313.0 30% 511.8 (218.3) 761.6 1,044.7 6.6 (130.0) (0.6) (54.1) 488.7 (21.2) 148.5 2Q16 (732.4) 345.3 32% 1,100.8 (184.9) 1,446.9 1,077.7 9.3 (115.4) (0.4) (108.5) 1,335.2 (38.2) 176.4 Non-recurring items (8.4) (49.7) (34.7) Deferred tax income / expense 15.9 (8.5) 108.2 FX translations (106.8) (8.8) 77.3 24%
68
Note: 1 Bar width is indicative of the equity production contributions to Centennial 2 Production generally responds to the timing of longwall changeovers (i.e. lower production results during a longwall changeover period) 3 Angus Place was put on care and maintenance from February 2015.
Normal production Bolt-up/commissioning
1.4 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.7 3.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16e 1Q17e 2Q17e 3Q17e 4Q17e
Total equity ROM (Mt)
WESTERN NORTHERN
LW relocation
3.5 3.4
ACTUAL PLANNED (INDICATIVE ONLY)
2016 2017e LW move Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mandalong (100%) Springvale (50%) 2 wks 2 wks 9 wks 4 wks 4 wks
3.5 3.6