2Q15 results
investor and analyst update
14th August 2015
2Q15 results investor and analyst update 14 th August 2015 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2Q15 results investor and analyst update 14 th August 2015 DISCLAIMER The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the
14th August 2015
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DISCLAIMER The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company
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Financial summary Power business Coal marketing Coal operations Focus: Banpu Power growth update 5 4 3 2 1 Looking forward 6
4
5
Japan solar 4 MW
*Power capacity is derived from the capacity of power and steam combined in MW equivalent **As of 14th Aug 2015 Note : Banpu effective ownership - Hongsa (40%), BLCP (50%), Luannan and Zhengding (100%), Zouping (70%), SLG (30%), Japan solar (40-75%)
CHINA
Luannan
123 MW*
Zhengding
139 MW*
Zouping
180 MW*
Hongsa
(COD 2015-16) 1,878 MW
LAOS
BLCP
1,434MW
SLG (COD 2017) 1,200 MW Mukawa (COD 2016) 17 MW
All capacity presented on 100% basis
Nari Aizu (COD 2018) 20 MW Olympia 10 MW Hino (COD 2016) 3.2 MW Awaji (COD 2016) 8.4 MW
Project coal-fired Operational coal-fired Project Solar Operational Solar
THAILAND
0 .4 0 .5 1.0 1.4 2.3 Power capacity
(GW equity)
TECO 266 MW COCO 103 MW
20 0 0
Ratch 543 MW
20 0 5
SLG 360 MW Japan solar 37 MW BLCP 717 MW BIC 424 MW*
20 18 e
(Committed)
Hongsa 751 MW BIC 327 MW*
20 10
BLCP 717 MW Hongsa 250 MW BLCP 717 MW
20 15**
BIC 388 MW*
DISCLAIMER The views, information and indications expressed here including forward looking targets and indications are illustrative only, are subject to change, may be based on incorrect assumptions, and have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
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97% 94% 100% 99.2% 99.9% 96.6%
PROGRESS* Power plants Ash and gypsum handling system Transmission line and substations Mining works Infrastructure works Social development
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
*As of June 2015
Power plants Transm ission line and substations
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97% 94% 100% 99.2% 99.9% 96.6%
PROGRESS* Power plants Ash and gypsum handling system Transmission line and substations Mining works Infrastructure works Social development
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
*As of June 2015
Conveyor line Coal/soil crusher Stock yard Stacker Main road from country border Nam Ken Dam Ban Homexai Ban Homesawang
Mining works Infrastructure works Social developm ent
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Coal/soil crusher
East
zone Nam Ken Dam Nam Louk Dam West
zone East lake Main pit Overburden Conveyor line Overburden crusher Coal crusher Coal stockyard
Stock yard
Area: 272,000 m2
reserved for 15 days
Coal stacker Conveyor line
Overburden flow Coal flow
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Com m ents
conducted by Hongsa and 3rd parties (e.g. EGAT) to ensure reliability
performance and reliability
NOV 14
Acid clean
DEC 14
Steam blow
FEB 15
Start-up with oil
FEB 15
1st network synchronization
MAR 15
Start up with coal & PPA test
MAY 15
Performance test start
MAY 15
Reliability and trial run test start
JUL 15
Reliability test complete
FEB 15
Start-up with oil
JUN 15
COD Alkaline clean
Unit 1
OCT 14
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
baseline in most areas
COMPENSATION
m./ household)
account training
LIVELIHOOD IMPROVEMENT
supply & irrigation, shared electricity, bus station and police box
cooperatives & market place, training courses
medical equipment and health check with database management PHYSICAL RELOCATION
households of 5 villages to resettlement areas
check before relocation INCOME RESTORATION
plantation COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
public facilities and infrastructure
secondary schools
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Road to farmland Pipeline installation Primary school Secondary school Chili cultivation Market place
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20.1 15.9 9.4 18.8 26.1 27.0
593 745 804 682 566 471
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
including additional chilled water unit to boost revenue during summer time
potential as local demand continues to grow
can secure higher power dispatch due to:
supplies both industrial and residential heat demand
the same time, therefore obtains priority dispatch from the grid company
support and recognition
experience, Banpu is able to maintain a consistent track record Com m ents
Henan Shaanxi Liaoning Jiangsu Yellow sea
Luannan
10 0 MW 128 tph
Zouping
10 0 MW 450 tph
Beijing
Zhengding
73 MW 370 tph 35 MW
Hebei Shandong
30%
Shanxi Lu Guang
1,20 0 MW 70%
(+25) (+173) (+35) Equity capacity 603 MW 813 tph
Operational Project Steam Power Chilled water
BIC’S NET INCOME (U$ M) VERSUS COAL PRICE BIC’s average coal price (RMB/t) BIC’s net income (U$ M) 35 MW
Capacity presented on a 100% basis
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but also reflect supply/ demand and cost (coal-power tariff linkage policy)
power exchanges
competitive
supply/ demand and marginal cost
Buyer Seller Buyer Seller Seller Buyer CHINESE MARKET APPROVAL-ORIENTED “SINGLE BUYER MARKET” e.g. Thai IPP and Japan solar MERCHANT INVESTMENT “MARKET – DRIVEN” e.g. Australia and Europe
Fuel risks Demand risks Finance risks Operational risks
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from heat determined power policy as a result of being the only heat source in the area
average efficiency is higher than pure power plants
community as essential utility unit (heat source)
BIC’s com petitive advantages
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Tariff (RMB/kwh) (LHS) Coal price (RMB/t) (RHS)
Coal price versus tariff rate – Zhengding
China’s average utilization hour ZD 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BIC’s utilization versus industry
ZP (1) LN Hour
*Combined Heat and Power
(1) ZP utilization hour dropped in 2013 was due to short term lower steam load
Source: China Electricity Council, nationw ide coal-fired operating hour/ year
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*Development and Reform Commission
**State-owned enterprises
Power plant Finance Project approval 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Other approvals: water, land and EIA Preliminary approval by Shanxi Provincial DRC* Final approval by Shanxi Provincial DRC* JV formed Weather monitoring for air cooling COD 1st unit Construction and commissioning Design and procurement COD 2nd unit
Com m ents
(nearby coal mines e.g. Gaohe), high efficiency, and partnerships with strong SOEs **
Social Stabilization Risk Assessment, and final approval from Shanxi Provincial Development and Reform Committee (DRC). Grid connection will be obtained after final project approval.
(RMB 15 m by Banpu) in Mar 2015.
RMB 150 m (RMB 59 m by Banpu)
construction.
Equity drawdown Debt drawdown 30% Equity 70% Debt Banpu’s contribution c.US$ 74 M DISCLAIMER The views, information and indications expressed here including forward looking targets and indications are illustrative only, are subject to change, may be based on incorrect assumptions, and have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
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*Banpu effective ownership is between 40-75%
Hino (COD 2016) 3.2 MW Awaji (COD 2016) 8.4 MW Mukawa (COD 2017) 17 MW Nari Aizu (COD 2018) 20 MW Olympia 10 MW
Tokyo
Japan solar portfolio
36.9 MW equity*
¥36-40/ kwh tariff (c.¢29-32/ kwh)
c.US$ 3.5m/ MW
additional capacity
Construction phase Operation phase Development phase
Hokkaido Honshu Shikoku Kyushu
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STRATEGIC FIT
REGULATIONS
RISKS FINANCING ECONOMICS
generation, which complements coal-fired projects with longer development time
to the project
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Note: Banpu effective ownership - Hongsa (40%), BLCP (50%), BIC (100%), SLG (30%), Japan solar (40-75%)
SLG 1,200 MW Hongsa 1,878 MW BLCP 1,434 MW BIC 273 MW 948 tph
Luannan and Zouping expansion
Operation
Japan solar 59 MW
Capacity presented on a 100% basis Consid era tions :
Thailand Other ASEAN Other Asia-Pac Greater Mekong
Philippines Indonesia India China China India Biomass Wind Solar Myanmar Laos Vietnam Cambodia Laos DISCLAIMER The views, information and indications expressed here including forward looking targets and indications are illustrative only, are subject to change, may be based on incorrect assumptions, and have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
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Financial summary Power business Coal marketing Coal operations Focus: Banpu Power growth update 5 4 3 2 1 Looking forward 6
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2Q15 YoY QoQ Sales revenue A$198M ▼ 9% ▼ 15% EBITDA (pre FX) A$29M ▼ 17% ▼40% PBT (pre FX) A$(14)M ▼ 17% n.m. Unrealised FX 3 A$3M n.m. n.m. NPAT A$(2)M n.m. n.m. Gearing
(Net debt to net debt + book value of equity)
37%
2015e OUTPUT (ROM EQUITY BASIS) FINANCIAL SUMMARY Wollongong
PKCT Charbon Airly Neubeck Angus Place Clarence Springvale Mandalong Myuna Newstan
Sydney
PWCS
Newcastle
Inglenook
Open-cut mine Project Underground mine Port Power station Road Rail
WESTERN OPERATIONS: 6.1 Mt NORTHERN OPERATIONS: 7.9 Mt NCIG Mannering
20 15e outp ut: 14.0 Mt KEY UPDATES
Production
Mt (down 17% YoY) due to Mandalong longwall changeover and Angus Place C&M
reduction continues
productivity and production improvement at operating mines has been achieved
ASP
~A$64/ t
as export prices remain weak
58%:42% (2014: 60%:40%), as a result of reduced domestic supply from Mandalong (and Angus Place)
Note 1: Mannering placed on “Care & Maintenance” November 2012 – benefiting from new production sharing arrangement with neighbouring mine. Note 2: NCIG = Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group; PWCS = Port Waratah Coal Services; PKCT = Port Kembla Coal Terminal. Note 3: Pre tax impact of A$ translation of US$ denominated net debt. Note 4: Newstan (1 August 2014) and Angus Place (from February 2015 upon completion of block) placed on care & maintenance.
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COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1 CV: 6,700 kcal/ kg2
1.2 2.1 1.0 2.0 1.1 1.9
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
Mandalong
QoQ and 9% YoY, with quarter impacted by planned LW3 changeover (completed mid May15).
Myuna
QoQ and up 6% Y0Y.
productivity improvements COMMENTS
LW MOVE SCHEDULE Mth 1 Mth 2 Mth 3
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
and maintenance – effective 1 August 2014
services and Newstan extension
Completion date extended
Note: 1 ROM output on an equity basis 2 CV figures are air-dried basis 3 Longwall 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e LW3 MOVE SCHEDULE Mth 1 Mth 2 Mth 3 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e 4Q15e
3 wks 4 wks 3 wks 3 wks
OTHER OPERATIONS
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1 CV: 6,700 kcal/ kg2
NEWSTAN EXTENSION MANDALONG
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Airly: production up 2% QoQ and 49% YoY Angus Place: production ceased mid-February 2015, with mine placed on C&M. Clarence: production down 11% QoQ, but up 5% YoY
– FCT to return in 3Q15. Springvale: production down 4% QoQ, but up 3% YoY, with staff and equipment successfully transferred from Angus Place and now targeting an additional 1 Mtpa.
to LW 3 418 during July, and production scheduled to recommence in August. OTHER OPERATIONS
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1 CV: 6,700 kcal/ kg 2
0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1 CV: 6,700 kcal/ kg 2
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
1 ROM output on an equity basis: Angus Place and Springvale 50%, Clarence 85% and Charbon 95% 2 CV figures are air-dried basis 3 Longwall 4 Flexible Conveyor Train Note: Following material overflow in reject emplacement area at Clarence in July, authorities were notified and actions were taken in compliance with NSW Environmental Protection Agency Clean-up Notice
COMMENTS
Mth 1 Mth 2 Mth 3
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e 4Q15e 7 wks 1 wk
LW 3 MOVE SCHEDULE
6 wks
SPRINGVALE CLARENCE 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8
COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 1 CV: 6,700 kcal/ kg 2
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
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control and productivity.
longwall changeover at Mandalong, while Springvale commenced bolting in mid- June.
extraction during 1Q15 and is now on C&M.
FCT1 panel was offline during the quarter, with the FCT1 undergoing a planned major
production in late August.
INDICATIVE AVERAGE PRODUCTION COSTS* COMMENTS 10 20 30 40 50 60 FY13
General expenses Open-cut contractor cost Repairs & maintenance Stores & supplies Labour Depreciation
* These figures do not include selling, distribution and royalty costs; based on ‘sold’ production ** Illustrative target $52 A$/ t
Cash overhead
$46 $49 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2014 FY14 1Q FY15E** $51 $44 $48 $48 $52 2015 $50 2Q
Coal handling & preparation
1 Flexible Conveyor Train
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OUTPUT 2015 (100% BASIS, SALEABLE COAL) FINANCIAL SUMMARY
East Kalim antan
Bunyut Port Balikpapan Palangkaraya Banjarmasin
Central Kalim antan South Kalim antan
Kitadin - Em balut 1.2 Mt Indom inco 15.0 Mt Trubaindo 7.0 Mt Bharinto 3.0 Mt Jorong 1.3 Mt
Samarinda Jorong Port Operation Project Operation Project POWER COAL Bontang Coal Terminal Captive coal- fired power project
Kitadin Tandung Mayang 2.0 Mt 20 15 ta rget: 29.5 Mt KEY UPDATES
2Q15 YoY QoQ Sales revenue US$397M ▼ 15% ▼ 7% EBITDA US$55M ▼27% ▼26% NPAT US$20M ▼ 61% ▼ 46% Gearing
(Net debt to net debt + book value of equity)
n.a. CAPEX US$8M
according to plan
achieved above plan due to better weather condition
production achieved according to target
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0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
CV: 5300 kcal/ kg** STRIP RATIOS (bcm/ t) 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
7.0 11.3 4.1 11.6 6.1 10.2 5.5 10.9 5.4 10.5 5.2 9.8
Note: *Output figures are 100% basis **CV figures are air-dried basis
JORONG
EMBALUT AND JORONG INDOMINCO - BONTANG TRUBAINDO - BHARINTO
E BLOCK TDMY W BLOCK INDOMINCO TDMY TRUBAINDO BHARINTO TRUBAINDO BHARINTO EMBALUT JORONG EMBALUT EAST WEST
COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* CV: 5950 - 6250 kcal/ kg** COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* CV: 6550 - 6700 kcal/ kg** COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* CV: 5800 kcal/ kg** 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
3.0 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.2
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/ t)
13.8 18.0 7.9 24.4 17.5 7.0 16.0 20.6 9.6 10.4 14.0 8.3 6.6 17.1 9.5 3.7 15.9 9,0
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9
STRIP RATIOS (bcm/ t) 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.3
9.9 8.9 8.0 9.1 11.4 8.0 8.8 6.7 8.2 5.3
2.9
7.9 5.1
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* Repair and maintenance, salaries and allowances, etc.
COMMENTS
cost reduction programs:
washing plant performance
distance, explosive cost, ship-loading cycle time
more than 40% this year will help ITM reduce costs further
INDICATIVE AVERAGE TOTAL COSTS
Mining cost Other production costs* Depreciation & amortisation SG&A expenses Royalty
$59 $60 $61 $56 $52 $59 $52 $52 U$/ t
20 30 40 50 60 70
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 FY14 1Q15 2Q15 FY15e
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CHINA COAL 2015 PRODUCTION TARGET*
BEIJING
Hebi (40 %), Henan 1.45 Mt Gaohe (45%), Shanxi 10 Mt
Note: * Output figures are ROM output (100% basis) ** CV figures are air-dried basis
Gaohe
target by 0.2 Mt
Cost reduction program implemented with target to reduce production cost by 10%
and will begin commissioning in 3Q Hebi
w orking area im provem ents: Improving ventilation, and continued repair
railways and roadways
and optimization. Plan to reduce labor costs in 2015.
OPERATIONAL UPDATES
Sum m ary 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Sales (Mt) 2.4 2.1 1.6 2.2 ASP (RMB/ t) 343 372 372 304 Revenue (US$ M) 133 129 94 107 COGS (RMB/ t) 249 235 187 166 EBITDA (US$ M) 47 51 44 44
Operation Project Operation Project POWER COAL 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.9 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
Gaohe CV: 6500-8000 Kcal/ kg** Hebi CV: 5300-6800 Kcal/ kg**
3Q14 – 2Q15 COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM)
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e
27 UNST KHUDAG AND ALTAI NUURS PROJECTS
TSANT UUL PROJECT
Unst Khudag Project
mining models
development
feasibility study for coal-to-liquid, coal- to-gas, and power facility Altai Nuurs Project
environmental studies
approvals from the Mongolian Government
currently performing functional testing and commissioning
coal-to-chemicals commercial scale project
OVEN PLANT INSTALLATION
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Financial summary Power business Coal m arketing Coal operations Focus: Banpu Power growth update 5 4 3 2 1 Looking ahead 6
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“ Oversupply continues”
SUPPLY TRENDS DEMAND TRENDS
+2 Mt +4 Mt +2 Mt +3 Mt
Indonesia Australia Russia Colombia S.Africa USA India Others Other N.Asia Europe China*
Global demand likely to fall for first time in decade due to steep decline in Chinese import but other Asian demand continues to grow
Note: *steam coal imports only
+3 Mt +15 Mt +20 Mt
USA : significant domestic demand falls pressure producers as does, strengthened US$ Russia : diverted to more coal to Asia due to lower UK import, still benefit from Rouble depreciation Indonesia : coal exports fall due low China demand, huge
coal, new government policy; use of domestic currency Australia : tight HCV coal supply, HA coal finds alternative buyers in India and Malaysia with larger discount due to falling Chinese demand. Take-or-pay forces producers to export more coal Colombia : night coal railing ban has limited impact to coal export, new port capacity to support export South Africa : continued political and social issues; limited rail capacity; uncertain expansion; high competition in India market
Thermal market continues to be oversupplied. Premium coals are trending tighter while off-spec coal is trending to more oversupply
Europe : increased carbon pricing, gas-switching, increased renewable energy and coal-fired capacity retirements per IED program will reduce coal burn China :
domestic market despite production cuts by major producers, weak power demand, high hydro and risk
elements test lower import India : demand growth still strong and domestic coal sector reforms can not contain import growth in the short-term, infrastructure constraint remains Others : South America and Turkey drive demand growth Other Asia : about 15 GW are expected to come
two to three years although some projects are still facing environmental and regulatory challenges
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*Note: Does NOT include lignite imports c.50Mtpa
CHINA ANNUALIZED ACTUAL IMPORT 1Q13-2Q15* CHINA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS/ EXPORTS* CHINA DOMESTIC COAL PRICES 93 103 147 135 96 14 7 5 4 2 2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F Import Export
Sources: Banpu MS&L Estimates
Unit: Mt
152 148 140 159 167 135 116 122 84 86 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Import Export
Unit: Mt 200 400 600 800 1,000 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15
> 5,800 kcal/ kg > 5,500 kcal/ kg > 5,000 kcal/ kg
392 343
CHINA
175
428
COMMENTS
Source: www.sxcoal.com/ cn 4 August 2015
be oversupplied despite production cuts by major producers
power demand
reduced coal burn in southern and eastern provinces
especially along coastal provinces
uncertainty to some imported coal due to the risk of having coal failing inspections
in the first half of this year
after a range of expansionary policies in 2Q
Unit: RMB/ t
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INDIA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS* INDIA ANNUALIZED ACTUAL IMPORT 1Q13-2Q15
Sources:: Salva Report India, Banpu MS&L Estimates
131 159 135 120 126 163 168 197 171 180 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Unit: Mt Unit: Mt
increase output to planned 1 billion tonnes by 2020.
continue with imported coal required to fill the gap
the rate of import growth
blocks involves high bidding cost as mostly for high CV coal located inland – focus is more on inland buyers rather than serving coastal areas
generation in India, and much higher quality import coal is at price parity with domestic coal in coastal locations.
INDIA
Note: *includes lignite grade imports (approximately 25% - 30%)
COMMENTS
68 87 107 136 163
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
184
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(1) Excluding Mongolia coal (2) Sales from Indonesia are included on 100% basis, sales from Australia and China are included on equity basis
COAL SALES(1) SOURCE – DESTINATION ANALYSIS 2015e GLOBAL COAL SALES(2) 2015e BY REGION
THAILAND HK CHINA TAIWAN ITALY
4.8 1.4 4.7 0.3 1.0
USA
0 .6 Mt 0 .8 Mt
INDIA
6.5 Mt 9.8 Mt
JAPAN
1.7 5.4 7.1 Mt 3.2 Mt
MALAYSIA
0 .3 Mt
INDONESIA
3.8 Mt
PHILIPPINES
2.0 Mt 2.4 Mt 0 .3 Mt
AUSTRALIA
8 .6 Mt
OTHERS
0.3 0.4 0 .7 Mt Indonesia coal Australia coal China coal
Japan 15% Korea 5% Taiwan 5% China, 20%** Australia 18% SE Asia 20% India 13% Others 4%
* Illustrative target ** Include coal sales from domestic production in China S KOREA
1.1 2.5 Mt 1.4
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Fixed 82% 9% 1% 8%
Fixed Unsold Unpriced Indexed
Mt*
*Target sales as at 31 July 2015
48% 13% 32% 3%4%
Unsold Indexed Domestic: legacy Fixed Export Domestic: long-term export parity
Mt*
AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL
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* The Newcastle Export Index (previously known as the Barlow Jonker Index – BJI)
weakness – 2Q15 ASP was 6% down Q-o-Q
domestic pricing as well as depreciation of A$ – 2Q15 ASP unchanged Q-o-Q
CV coal than other coals, especially in Indonesia, we further diversified coal sales both in ITM and CEY to sustain delivery and growth.
proportionately higher than export compared to 2Q and 3Q.
delivering dividends.
ITM ASP 2Q15 $57.2 (-6% QoQ) CEY ASP 2Q15 A$64.0 (+0% QoQ) NEX* August 6, 20 15 $59.9 Unit: $/ t 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Monthly NEX Quarterly ITM ASP Quarterly Centennial ASP
BANPU ASP VS BENCHMARK PRICES COMMENTS
35
Financial summary Power business Coal marketing Coal operations Focus: Banpu Power growth update 5 4 3 2 1 Looking ahead 6
36
30 17 14
7
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
USD m illion
Energy Paym ent (EP) Dispatch (%) Availability Paym ent (AP)
Q-Q : +16.8 % Y-Y : -3.8 % Q-Q : +31.7 % Y-Y : -26.1% Q-Q : +30 .1% Y-Y : -26.3%
Total revenue EBIT EBITDA
Q-Q : +7.0 % Y-Y : -12.2% Q-Q : +30 .9 % Y-Y : -15.9%
Based on Banpu’s 50% interest
Q-Q: +43.9% Y-Y: -31.4% Equity incom e
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FX loss
21 30
FX gain
83.9 53.9 70.5
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
79.8 65.5 70.1
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
166.1 124.5 146.5
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
69.1 38.8 51.0
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
69.9 39.6 51.5
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
98.3 80.9 97.8
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
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Ov era ll p rogress a p p rox. 97.8 % on sched ule (a s a t June 20 15)
Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3
Cooling tower
100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 98%
Concrete construction and system installation Hongsa project progress in 2Q15 Boiler and turbine Commissioning activity
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10.2 19.4 3.5 9.9 16.4 9.4 3.7 6.7 3.6 5.9 5.6 6.0 1,928 1,205 1,343 1,516 1,510
1,618
1,743 1,418 1,838 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.37 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.41 0.42 429 357 464 512 457 555 362 357 419
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
8.7 11.5 4.1 18.4
17.1 15.9
Note: *BIC = Banpu Investment China (formerly BPIC), **Unaudited figures, *** Including transportation
Luannan
Hebei Province Power 100 MW Steam 128 tph (Banpu 100% )
Zhengding
Hebei Province Power 73 MW Steam 370 tph Chilled water 35 MW (Banpu 100%)
Zouping
Shandong Province Power 100 MW Steam 450 tph (Banpu 70%) Sales** (US$M) EBITDA (US$M) Utilization (hours) Power tariff (RMB/ kwh) Coal price*** (RMB/ t)
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
2Q15 sales w ere low er than 1Q15 due to the heating season ending and low er YoY sales due to w eaker steam dem and resulting from w eak econom ics. Low er coal price helped stabilize the YoY EBITDA. 2Q15 sales w ere low er than 1Q15 and YoY due to pow er tariff being low ered by low coal price. Low er coal price helped
hence 2Q15 EBITDA higher than 1Q15 and YoY 2Q15 sales w ere low er than 1Q15 due to ending heating season and low er YoY sales w ere due to low er pow er sales and pow er tariff being low ered by low coal price As a result, YoY 2Q15 EBITDA w as low er
39
Financial sum m ary Power business Coal marketing Coal operations Focus: Banpu Power growth update 5 4 3 2 1 Looking ahead 6
40
Australia cut rates by 0.25% to 2.00% (second tim e in 2015)
EXTERNAL EVENTS CORPORATE EVENTS DIRECT INDIRECT
c.10% resource tax set in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi NEX coal index closed at $72/ t JPU forecast cut from $77/ t to $70/ t 4Q14 Analyst m eeting 4Q14 SET Opportunity Day Thai inflation dropped to 5-year low est at 0.6% yoy BOT hold policy rate at 2% Euro dropped to 11-year low against USD after ECB launched one trillion euros bond-buying Announced Bt0.70/ share 2H14 dividend 2014 Result Announcement BOT cut rate by 0.25% to 1.75% Fed m aintained sam e rate, but likely to rise 50Mt of contracts w ith Japan settled at $69/ t
1Q15
Annual General Meeting for 2015 1Q15 Analyst m eeting 1Q15 SET Opportunity Day Australia coal prices jum p 10% to $68/ t after storm hit Indonesia m aking L/ C m andatory for coal export BOT cut GDP forecast to 3.8% BOT cut rate by 0.25% to 1.5% China cut rates by 0.25% to 5.1% for lending and 2.25% for deposit. China im poses ban
ash content higher than 16% or Sulphur 1% HBA price dropped 0.7% from June to $59.16/ m t FOB ADB cut GDP grow th for SEA from 6.3% to 6.1% EU announced interest rates unchanged China plans to step up control
im port
3Q15
Australian PWCS term inals' Jun coal shipm ents to China fall 41% from May PBOC cuts 0.25% rates
deposit rates to 2% and lending rate to 4.85% COD of Hongsa’s 1st unit Citi dow ngrades LT therm al coal price forecast
2Q15
BOD’s approval
plan on SET BOT hold rate at 1.5%
41
Note: ITM and Centennial revenues are consolidated in Banpu income statement. Australia Coal – Third party coal sales included. *NEX = Newcastle Export Index (formerly Barlow Jonker Index or BJI) It is relevant but not linked to China Coal’s ASP
CHINA COAL
Note: Hebi and Gaohe revenues are not consolidated in Banpu income statement.
SALES (Mt) AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/ t) excl. VAT REVENUE (US$M) 178 159 154 118 135 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
ASP
63 60 65 65 55 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
NEX*
73 69 64 66 60
Equity basis 100% basis Domestic Export
AUSTRALIA COAL (CENTENNIAL)
1.9 3.0 2.1 2.3 1.7 3.2 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.1 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 SALES (Mt) AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (A$/ t) REVENUE (A$M) 218 305 244 233 198 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
ASP
68 66 67 64 64 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
NEX*
73 69 64 66 60
Equity basis Equity basis Domestic Export
INDONESIA COAL (ITM)
5.7 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.7 7.8 7.3 7.1 6.9 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 SALES (Mt)
100% basis Domestic Export
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/ t) REVENUE (US$M) 462 522 455 428 397 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
NEX* ASP
73 69 64 66 60 68 67 63 61 57 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
100% basis
42
477 447 405 203 190 163 38 53 34
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Note: Revenue from others is included in Coal Indonesia.
US$ M
718 68 9 60 2
Coal Australia
Coal Indonesia
Power
Power Coal Australia Coal Indonesia
43 INDONESIA COAL
AUSTRALIA COAL
Note: AUD exchange rate – US$ 0.779/ A$ (Average of 2Q15)
Coal sales Gross margin
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
30 % 25%
203 163 Indonesia coal gross m argin: 32%
37% 34%
US$ M US$ M
Australia coal gross m argin: 24% 190
24 % 32%
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
37% 34%
396 460 430
32%
44 75 73 48 8 3 2 37 45 36 40 32 26
US$M
159 152
US$M
EBITDA NET PROFIT
113
Power
Coal Australia
Coal China
Coal Indonesia
Power Coal Australia Coal China Coal Indonesia
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
24 41 20 32 22 18 (32) (33) (33) (2) (10) 17
(3) (8) (7)
2.1 21
Power Operating profit
Derivatives
Others FX
Financial Charges Coal Operating profit
Other non recurring Derivatives Power Operating profit Coal Operating profit Financial charges FX
45
GEARING RATIOS
DEBT FX STRUCTURE
Note: 1 Net debt to book value of shareholders' equity 2 Net debt to enterprise value (enterprise value = net debt + market capitalization as at 30 June 2015)
USD Fixed 47% USD Float 23% AUD Fixed 3% AUD Float 8% THB Fixed 17% THB Float 2% Total gross debt: US$3.2 billion As of 30 June 2015
1.10 1.17 1.23 Net debt / Equity1 (x) 52% 54% 55% Net m arket gearing2 (%) Net debt / EBITDA (x) 4.17 4.38
2013 2014 2Q15
46
Financial summary Power business Coal marketing Coal operations Focus: Banpu Power growth update 5 4 3 2 1 Looking ahead 6
47
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
synergy value potential
expertise (UG, OP , contracting…)
relationships throughout the region
successful Asian power sector experience
development, project finance, operations…
Pacific with relative ease, speed
SHORT TERM OBJECTIVES
discount reduction
up, SLG development, Japan solar…
LONGER TERM OBJECTIVES
logistics, blending and trading synergies
scale, risk mitigation, synergies
investment pipeline development
portfolio throughout Asia-Pacific region
performance of conventional power
COAL POWER
DISCLAIMER The views, information and indications expressed here including forward looking targets and indications are illustrative only, are subject to change, may be based on incorrect assumptions, and have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the views, information as indications expressed here. This slide should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this slide should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
48
49
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
32% 37% 34% 396
Indonesia Coal 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Indom inco
37% 35% 25% 164 194 218
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
40 % 35% 36% 114
Trubaindo
134 139
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 53% Jorong
51% 36% 42% 11 13 13
52% 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15
18 23% 28 % 26%
Kitadin
15 14 460 430
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Bharinto
46 35 37% 35%
52% 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Tandung Mayang
42 27% 41% 26% 38 35 44 37%
US$M
50
NPAT IMPACT 2Q20 15 (US$m ) APPROXIMATE FX EXPOSURE (US$m ) NPAT 5% SENSITIVITY 3Q20 15 (US$m ) +18
+2 +1 +15
NET AUD IDR THB & OTHERBanpu: THB bond and
Banpu: THB bond and
+20 +20
AUD IDR THB & OTHER+ 19 1
+ 19
NET AUD IDR THB & OTHERNET LIABILITY NET ASSET
Assum ing 5% depreciation of local currencies against USD
CURRENCY EXPOSURE ITMG: IDR asset and liabilities ITMG: IDR asset and liabilities CEY: USD liabilities CEY: USD liabilities Net Net
51
Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown. *BIC = Banpu Investment China (formerly BPIC)
47 51 44 43
3
1 2 5 2 4 13 8 5 3 3 19 15 20 16 29 35 44 22
Jorong
48 14 40 52 2 1 5 64 56 74 55
50% 40%
Power & New energy
40% 45% 70% Gaohe Hebi BLCP HONGSA BIC* Zouping
4 6 6 6
Zhengding
3 9 12 4
Luannan
4 6 7 4
& holding companies 65% Indom inco Trubaindo Kitadin AACI OVERHEAD
Unit: US$M
100%
73 32 45 32
Consolidated NOT consolidated
9 11 24 13
Unit: AUD Mil
All figures are 100% basis except for Centennial which is equity basis
167 118 152 112
Bharinto
3Q4 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
52
Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown.
2295 2425 2545 2649
170 178 210 193 & holding companies 2,761 2,813 2,740 2,776
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL CHINA COAL MONGOLIA COAL THAILAND POWER LAOS POWER CHINA POWER
Gaohe Hebi HONGSA BLCP BIC*
100% 65% 45% 40% 100% 50% 40% 100% 672 704 717 720
413 409 374 365 9 2
Unit: AUD Mil
Unit: US$M
2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Consolidated NOT consolidated Net debt Net cash
53
Unit: USD m illion Sales revenues – Power (BIC) Cost of sales Gross profit* GPM Sales revenues – Coal Total sales revenues* Gross profit - Coal Gross profit – Power (BIC) GPM – Pow er (BIC) GPM - Coal
YoY%
Note: * Including other businesses
QoQ%
34 (421) 18 2 30 % 2Q15 60 2 561 167 11 33% 30% 38 (494) 224 31% 2Q14 718 673 208 12 30% 31% 53 (445) 24 5 36% 1Q15 68 9 631 226 22 42% 36%
54
Unit: USD m illion Gross profit GPM SG&A Royalty Other income EBIT EBITDA EBIT - Coal EBIT - Power Income from associates EBITDA - Coal EBITDA - Power
YoY%
Other expenses - Operations
18 2 30 % (82) (62) 7 64 113 2Q15 42 22 19 87 26
QoQ%
224 31% (90) (77) 10 10 0 159 2Q14 64 36 39 119 40 (7) 24 5 36% (91) (69) 4 10 3 152 1Q15 75 28 14 120 32
55
Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses
Unit: USD m illion EBIT Interest expenses Financial expenses Minorities Non-recurring items* Income tax (non - core business) Net profit before FX Income tax (core business) Net profit before extra item s FX translations Net Profit EPS (US$/ share)
YoY% 178%
Deferred tax income (expenses) 64 2Q15 (30) (2) (8) (24) (3) (18 ) (13) 10 17 (2) (0.001) (2)
QoQ%
10 0 2Q14 (29) (3) (19) (1) (4) 23 (23) 26 (2) 21 0.008 3 10 3 1Q15 (31) (2) (14) (18) (4) 12 (34) 23 (10) 2 0.001 11
56 Unit: USD m illion
Cost of sales Gross profit GPM Royalty SG&A EBIT Sales revenue Sales volum e (Mt) Other income Interest expenses Financial expenses Gain (loss) on exchange rate Net profit Gain (loss) on derivative Other expenses
YoY%
n.m.
n.m. QoQ%
+96% n.m. 2Q14 (152.9) 50 .1 25% (13.8) (39.3) (2.7) 3.2 203.1 7.2 (7.3) (1.5) 0.8 (9.6) 0.3 (7) Deferred tax income 0.9 1Q15 (132.9) 56.7 30% (13.2) (31.2) 14 .5 3.7 189.6 2.3 (7.0) (0.7) (2.5) (2.2) (6.5)
(123.7) 38 .9 24% (11.1) (26.8) 5.5 3.1 162.6 4.5 (6.5) (1.0) 2.0 (8 .6) (8.7)
57
Note: 1. Bar width is indicative of the equity production contributions to Centennial
Normal production Bolt-up/ commissioning
1.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 2.2 1.9 2.7 1.5 2.5 1.6 2.6 1.2 3.7 3.7 4 .6 3.2 4 .3 3.0 3.9 2.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e 4Q15e
Total equity ROM (Mt) ACTUAL PLANNED (INDICATIVE ONLY)
WESTERN NORTHERN
LW relocation 3 wks
2014 2015e
6 wks 6 wks 4 wks 3 wks 6 wks Care & maintenance 3 wks
58
*Note: Ultra-super critical power plants in general consume less coal (c.284 g/ KWh) and have higher efficiency (heat efficiency of 44%, boiler efficiency of 93%) and lower emissions (SOx of 35 mg/ Nm3, NOx of 50 mg/ Nm3, dust of 10 mg/ Nm3)
Note: PPA in China
agreement for parties to sell and purchase power
by entering into “Interconnection and dispatch agreements” with grid companies. Duration of agreement is c.3-5 years, regularly renew when expired.
already obtained dispatch approval to export power to Hubei province
reflect coal price change
lower emission levels – De-NOx : 10RMB/ MWh – De-SOx : 15RMB/ MWh – Dust removal : 2RMB/ MWh
Coal consum ption 3.2 Mtpa Gaohe m ine
2 x 600 MW air-cooling, ultra-super critical technology*
Banpu 35% Lu’an Group Gem eng International 35% 30 % 45% 55%
500 kv T/ L
Hubei province
Conveyer belt
3 km
0 .6 Mtp a Lu’an group and
in Shanxi 2.6 Mtp a ILLUSTRATIVE & INDICATIVE ONLY