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droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Th The United St States Drought Mo Monitor

Ø Hosted by the NDMC as part of a 3- way partnership with NOAA and USDA Ø Weekly maps provided since 1999 Ø Over 450+ “Local Experts” participating each week Ø Over 12.5 million hits a year Ø Used in several USDA programs Ø Used by the IRS for tax deferrals Ø Many others !

A summary narrative of changes made each week, by region, can be found in the “Drought Summary”

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER

Timescales

• f potential

impacts delineated 22.63% of the country currently in drought

5 levels of intensity

• n the map, 4 are

considered drought, 1 is not…

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER

4 Drought intensities Not Drought

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! Assessment of current drought conditions and current drought impacts ! The U.S. Drought Monitor is NOT a model ! The map is made manually each week based off the previous map ! The U.S. Drought Monitor is NOT interpreting just precipitation ! The U.S. Drought Monitor is NOT a forecast or drought declaration ! Can be used by decision makers in this way though ! Identifying impacts ! “S” short-term impacts, “L” long-term impacts or “SL” for a

combination of both

! “S”-6 month time scales or less, “L”-greater than 6 month time scales ! Incorporate local expert input ! Accomplished via email and impact reports ! Validation of Objective Indicators ! Authors try to be as objective as possible (using the percentiles

methodology) and the “Convergence of evidence” approach

! The physical data and indicators must support the depiction on the map ! Impact data validates physical data

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Percentiles and the U.S. Drought Monitor

D4: Exceptional Drought (1st-2nd percentile) D3: Extreme Drought (3rd-5th percentile) D2: Severe Drought (6th-10th percentile) D1: Moderate Drought (11th-20th percentile) D0: Abnormally Dry (21st-30th percentile)

Advantages of percentiles:

Ø Can be applied to any parameter used in the drought analysis Ø Can be used for indicators of any length of data record Ø Puts drought in historical perspective: How many occurrences in a given period of time

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER

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USDM Soil Moisture “Wish List”

qKeep working towards a coordinated soil moisture product for the CONUS based upon in situ data qProvide data in percentiles and in a GIS compatible format so the USDM Authors can ingest the data each week into their analysis qDevelop a soil moisture climatology going as far back as possible qProvide guidance on the limitations of any aggregated products qWeekly updates of these soil moisture products if not near-real time qDevelop hybrid products along with the remote sensing community using both in situ and satellite data for the CONUS qUtilize existing federal platforms (SCAN, CRN, etc) and state/regional networks to expand our soil moisture monitoring efforts

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER

And now….BEYOND the USDM

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER

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