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droughtmonitor.unl.edu Th The United St States Drought Mo Monitor Ø Hosted by the NDMC as part of a 3- way partnership with NOAA and USDA Ø Weekly maps provided since 1999 Ø Over 450+ “Local Experts” participating each week A summary Ø Over 12.5 million hits a year narrative of changes made each Ø Used in several USDA programs week, by region, Ø Used by the IRS for tax deferrals can be found in the “Drought Ø Many others ! Summary”
Timescales of potential impacts delineated 22.63% of the country currently in drought NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
5 levels of intensity on the map, 4 are considered drought, 1 is not… Not Drought 4 Drought intensities NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
! Assessment of current drought conditions and current drought impacts %3*3$-./01"($ 2/&'(/.$ ! The U.S. Drought Monitor is NOT a model ! The map is made manually each week based off the previous map 456#7('8#, ! The U.S. Drought Monitor is NOT interpreting just precipitation ! The U.S. Drought Monitor is NOT a forecast or drought declaration ! Can be used by decision makers in this way though ! Identifying impacts ! “ S ” short-term impacts, “ L ” long-term impacts or “ SL ” for a combination of both ! “ S ”-6 month time scales or less, “ L ”-greater than 6 month time scales ! Incorporate local expert input ! Accomplished via email and impact reports ! Validation of Objective Indicators ! Authors try to be as objective as possible (using the percentiles methodology) and the “Convergence of evidence” approach ! The physical data and indicators must support the depiction on the map ! Impact data validates physical data >N*('>N:%HW'OYE*% &(*(YN*('>%I?>*?W
Percentiles and the U.S. Drought Monitor Advantages of percentiles: ( 1 st -2 nd percentile) Ø Can be applied to any D4: Exceptional Drought parameter used in the drought ( 3 rd - 5 th percentile) analysis D3: Extreme Drought Ø Can be used for indicators of ( 6 th -10 th percentile) D2: Severe Drought any length of data record Ø Puts drought in historical ( 11 th -20 th percentile) D1: Moderate Drought perspective: ( 21 st -30 th percentile) How many occurrences in D0: Abnormally Dry a given period of time NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
How is all of this done?
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q Keep working towards a coordinated soil moisture product for the CONUS based upon in situ data USDM Soil q Provide data in percentiles and in a GIS compatible format Moisture so the USDM Authors can ingest the data each week into their analysis q Develop a soil moisture climatology going as far back as “Wish List” possible q Provide guidance on the limitations of any aggregated products q Weekly updates of these soil moisture products if not near-real time q Develop hybrid products along with the remote sensing community using both in situ and satellite data for the CONUS q Utilize existing federal platforms (SCAN, CRN, etc) and state/regional networks to expand our soil moisture monitoring efforts NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
And now….BEYOND the USDM NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
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