Fairbanks North Star Borough Y Eielson Regional Growth Plan R The F he F-35s 35s Are Are Com Coming: ing: A How Ca Ho w Can You n You Be Be Pr Prep epare ared? d? N I DR DRAFT AFT Preliminar reliminary y Fi Find nding ings s – Aug Augus ust 2017 t 2017 M I L Prepared for the Fairbanks North Star Borough by the Arcadis Project Team E R P DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
Y 2005 R A N I M I L E R 2016 P DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 2
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 Y R A N I M I L E R P 3 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
Eielson Regional Growth Plan Focus DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 Areas Y R • Existing Conditions • Utilities + Infrastructure A • Regional Housing • Public Safety N • Fiscal Impact • Health + Social Services I M • Education • Quality of Life I • Transportation • Workforce Development L • Planning + Zoning • Regional Coordination E R • Utilities + Infrastructure • Implementation Plan P We need your input on these topics 4 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 August 2017 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 P R E L Recommendations I M I N A R Y 5
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 What We are Sharing Today Y Preliminary population and employment projections. • R Revised housing need estimate for F-35 population. • A N What we have learned-to-date re: • I existing housing stock, desired M housing type, and potential strategies I for new housing. L E R Potential increased demand for childcare, early • childhood and educational services. P Overall assumptions, methodology and schedule – • how we are doing the work and what to look forward to. 6 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 As We Share This Week – Please Keep in Mind Y • This is the be begi ginn nning ing of of th the gr grow owth th pla planning nning proc process ess. R • There is still a a lo lot t to to le learn arn from Air Force, from you. A • You ou ne need t d thi his s in information ormation to to pla plan. N • We are sharing pr preliminar eliminary y in information formation today to: I M o Build on the information exchange that has been happening. I L o Provide a clear understanding of prel elimina iminary y E assu as sumpt mptions ions an and lim limit itat ation ions s of f the da e data ta. R o Understand and begin to address your concerns – you P can help us ask the right follow-up questions. • Please understand, we are sharing this information early in the process – an analy alysis sis ma may y ch chan ange ge. 7 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 Preliminary Population Projections for F-35 Beddown Operation at EAFB Y Considers two scenarios for direct employment R increases at EAFB. A Both scenarios start with numbers provided by N EAFB leadership: I M Approved Scenario: Based on positions • I authorized by Congress and included in the L Department of Defense multi-year budget. E Approved + Pending Scenario: Adds to R • Approved Scenario with additional positions P not yet authorized by Congress but likely to be approved. Projections Tool: Alaska REMI Model 8 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 What is the REMI Model? Y • The Alaska REMI Model was developed for R Northern Economics in a collaborative A process with Regional Economic Models, Inc. N o See www.remi.com for more information I M • It is a dynamic multi-year model. I • Many other models assume everything is L E available locally for new development, like R the F- 35, it’s just not being used. P • Considers the movement of people and resources in and out of local economies over time. 9 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 Assumptions that Apply to Both Scenarios Y • Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce R Development (ADOLWD) forecasts used to predict A baseline population and employment figures: N o http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/projections/pub/p I M opproj.pdf (more info on population forecasts) o http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/indfcst/index.cfm (more I L info on employment forecasts) E R • Timeframe for projections: 20 2016 16 th thro roug ugh h 20 2030 30. P • Construction projects-related population and employment impacts are not yet included. 10 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
Approved Scenario Assumptions POPULATION INCREASE BREAKDOWN Y DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 R Year F-35 beddown plans will add to EAFB: A Subtotal o 1,178 active duty personnel N 1,310 o 66 federal civilian employees +1,584 I By 2021 M o 66 technical consultants = I 2,894 L Plus 1,584 dependents E R Plus 1,696 “induced” or additional FNSB general population Increases every year between P 2019 and 2030 resulting from increased economic activity. This includes new – biggest jump in 2021 and workers AND their families. (Source AK REMI Model) 2022. By 2030 TOTAL = 4,590 new potential FNSB residents 11 DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
Approved + Pending Assumptions Y POPULATION INCREASE BREAKDOWN DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 R Year F-35 beddown plans will add to EAFB: A Subtotal o 1,284 active duty personnel N 1,485+ o 101 federal civilian employees By 2021 I 1,822 = M o 100 technical consultants 3,307 I L Plus 1,822 dependents E Increases R every year Plus 2,009 “induced” or additional FNSB general population between 2019 P resulting from increased economic activity. This includes and 2030 – biggest jump in 2021 and new workers AND their families. (Source AK REMI Model) 2022. TOTAL = 5,316 potential new FNSB residents By 2030 12 DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
A Closer look at Additional Natural DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 Growth + Induced, Approved Scenario Y R A N Population and Employment Projections I M I L E R P By 2030, 58% of total growth is result of economic migration (induced) 42% of total is result of natural growth (births). 13 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 Y R A N Population and Employment Projections I M I L E R P 14 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 Preliminary FNSB Population Projections Approved Scenario Y R Change #: 4,590 Change %: 4.3% A N I M Behind the numbers I • Between 2010 – 2016 = 3 years growth; 3 years decline. L Each year, positive natural increase; negative net migration • E all years, except 2012. R P Note: “Other Civilian” includes Federal civilians and technical consultants working at EAFB along with their dependents. Indu ced population is for the most part economic migrants moving to FNSB. Source: Preliminary results developed by Northern Economics using the Alaska REMI Model, data from EAFB and ADOLWD Population Forecasts at http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/projections/pub/popproj.pdf 15 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017 Preliminary FNSB Population Projections Approved + Pending Scenario Y R Change #: 5,316 Change %: 4.7% A N I M Behind the numbers: Between 2010 – 2016 = 3 years growth; 3 years • I L decline. • Each year, positive natural increase; negative net E migration all years, except 2012. R P Note: “Other Civilian” includes Federal civilians and technical consultants working at EAFB along with their dependents. Induced population is for the most part economic migrants moving to FNSB. Source: Preliminary results developed by Northern Economics using the Alaska REMI Model, data from EAFB and ADOLWD Population Forecasts at http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/projections/pub/popproj.pdf 16 DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017
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