[PPT] - Y Eielson Regional Growth Plan R The F he F-35s 35s Are Are Com PowerPoint Presentation

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Fairbanks North Star Borough Eielson Regional Growth Plan

Prepared for the Fairbanks North Star Borough by the Arcadis Project Team

The F he F-35s 35s Are Are Com Coming: ing: Ho How Ca w Can You n You Be Be Pr Prep epare ared? d?

DR DRAFT AFT Preliminar reliminary y Fi Find nding ings s – Aug Augus ust 2017 t 2017

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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2016 2005

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Eielson Regional Growth Plan Focus Areas

Existing Conditions
Regional Housing
Fiscal Impact
Education
Transportation
Planning + Zoning
Utilities + Infrastructure

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Utilities + Infrastructure
Public Safety
Health + Social Services
Quality of Life
Workforce Development
Regional Coordination
Implementation Plan

We need your input on these topics

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

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Recommendations

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

What We are Sharing Today

Preliminary population and employment projections.
Revised housing need estimate for F-35 population.
What we have learned-to-date re:

existing housing stock, desired housing type, and potential strategies for new housing.

Potential increased demand for childcare, early

childhood and educational services.

Overall assumptions, methodology and schedule –

how we are doing the work and what to look forward to.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

As We Share This Week – Please Keep in Mind

This is the be

begi ginn nning ing of

f th

the gr grow

wth

th pla planning nning proc process ess.

There is still a

a lo lot t to to le learn arn from Air Force, from you.

You
u ne

need t d thi his s in information

rmation to

to pla plan.

We are sharing pr

preliminar eliminary y in information formation today to:

Build on the information exchange that has been

happening.

Provide a clear understanding of prel

elimina iminary y as assu sumpt mptions ions an and lim limit itat ation ions s of f the da e data ta.

Understand and begin to address your concerns – you

can help us ask the right follow-up questions.

Please understand, we are sharing this information

early in the process – an analy alysis sis ma may y ch chan ange ge.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Preliminary Population Projections for F-35 Beddown Operation at EAFB

Considers two scenarios for direct employment increases at EAFB. Both scenarios start with numbers provided by EAFB leadership:

Approved Scenario: Based on positions

authorized by Congress and included in the Department of Defense multi-year budget.

Approved + Pending Scenario: Adds to

Approved Scenario with additional positions not yet authorized by Congress but likely to be approved. Projections Tool: Alaska REMI Model

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

What is the REMI Model?

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The Alaska REMI Model was developed for

Northern Economics in a collaborative process with Regional Economic Models, Inc.

See www.remi.com for more information
It is a dynamic multi-year model.
Many other models assume everything is

available locally for new development, like the F-35, it’s just not being used.

Considers the movement of people and

resources in and out of local economies over time.

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Assumptions that Apply to Both Scenarios

Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce

Development (ADOLWD) forecasts used to predict baseline population and employment figures:

http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/projections/pub/p
pproj.pdf (more info on population forecasts)
http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/indfcst/index.cfm (more

info on employment forecasts)

Timeframe for projections: 20

2016 16 th thro roug ugh h 20 2030 30.

Construction projects-related population and

employment impacts are not yet included.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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Approved Scenario Assumptions

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POPULATION INCREASE BREAKDOWN F-35 beddown plans will add to EAFB:

1,178 active duty personnel
66 federal civilian employees
66 technical consultants

Plus 1,584 dependents Plus 1,696 “induced” or additional FNSB general population

resulting from increased economic activity. This includes new

workers AND their families. (Source AK REMI Model)

TOTAL = 4,590 new potential FNSB residents

Increases every year between 2019 and 2030 – biggest jump in 2021 and 2022.

By 2021

Subtotal 1,310 +1,584 = 2,894

Year

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

By 2030

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Approved + Pending Assumptions

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POPULATION INCREASE BREAKDOWN F-35 beddown plans will add to EAFB:

1,284 active duty personnel
101 federal civilian employees
100 technical consultants

Plus 1,822 dependents

Plus 2,009 “induced” or additional FNSB general population resulting from increased economic activity. This includes new workers AND their families. (Source AK REMI Model)

TOTAL = 5,316 potential new FNSB residents

By 2021

Increases every year between 2019 and 2030 – biggest jump in 2021 and 2022.

Subtotal 1,485+ 1,822 = 3,307

Year

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

By 2030

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Population and Employment Projections

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A Closer look at Additional Natural Growth + Induced, Approved Scenario

By 2030, 58% of total growth is result of economic migration (induced) 42% of total is result of natural growth (births).

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Population and Employment Projections

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Preliminary FNSB Population Projections Approved Scenario

Note: “Other Civilian” includes Federal civilians and technical consultants working at EAFB along with their dependents. Induced population is for the most part economic migrants moving to FNSB. Source: Preliminary results developed by Northern Economics using the Alaska REMI Model, data from EAFB and ADOLWD Population Forecasts at http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/projections/pub/popproj.pdf

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Behind the numbers

Between 2010 – 2016 = 3 years growth; 3 years decline.
Each year, positive natural increase; negative net migration

all years, except 2012.

Change #: 4,590 Change %: 4.3%

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Preliminary FNSB Population Projections Approved + Pending Scenario

Note: “Other Civilian” includes Federal civilians and technical consultants working at EAFB along with their dependents. Induced population is for the most part economic migrants moving to FNSB. Source: Preliminary results developed by Northern Economics using the Alaska REMI Model, data from EAFB and ADOLWD Population Forecasts at http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/projections/pub/popproj.pdf

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Behind the numbers:

Between 2010 – 2016 = 3 years growth; 3 years

decline.

Each year, positive natural increase; negative net

migration all years, except 2012.

Change #: 5,316 Change %: 4.7%

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Preliminary Employment Projections for F-35 Beddown Operations at EAFB for Approved Scenario

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Note: “Civilian Employment” includes federal civilian employees and technical consultants working at EAFB. Source: Preliminary results developed by Northern Economics using the Alaska REMI Model, data from EAFB and ADOLWD Employment Forecasts summarized at http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/indfcst/index.cfm

By 2030, 2,651 new jobs

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Preliminary Employment Projections for F-35 Beddown Operations at EAFB for Approved + Pending Scenario

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Note: “Civilian Employment” includes federal civilian employees and technical consultants working at EAFB. Source: Preliminary results developed by Northern Economics using the Alaska REMI Model, data from EAFB and ADOLWD Employment Forecasts summarized at http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/indfcst/index.cfm

By 2030, 3,081 new jobs

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

19 Note: The High-end Scenario is expected to generate 0.6 percent more children than the Standard Scenario. Source: Preliminary results developed by Northern Economics using the Alaska REMI Model, data from EAFB, and ADOLWD Population Forecasts at http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/projections/pub/popproj.pdf.

Preliminary Population Projections for Children Approved Scenario

Approved Scenario

Increase of 1,806
Total of 30,731 by 2030

Approved/Pending Scenario

Increase of 2,030
Total of 30,993 in 2030

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

20 Note: The High-end Scenario is expected to generate 0.6 percent more children than the Standard Scenario. Source: Preliminary results developed by Northern Economics using the Alaska REMI Model, data from EAFB, and ADOLWD Population Forecasts at http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/projections/pub/popproj.pdf.

Preliminary Population Change Projections for Children for Approved Scenario

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Considerations for Educational Services

Anticipated number of children coming to FNSB

via the F-35 beddown.

Boroughwide population projections by age.
Nu

Numbe ber a r and nd loc locati tion

n of
f sc

scho hools

ls.

.

In

Indiv dividu idual sch l schoo

ol c

l capa paci city ty. .

School zones.
Districtwide enrollment and enrollment by school

(10-year snapshot).

Districtwide total number of military-connected

students (10-year snapshot).

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Considerations for Educational Services, cont’d.

Number of military-connected students by school

(10-year snapshot).

Districtwide and by-school military-connected

student family information, such as rank, rotation info, etc.

Districtwide and by-school military-connected

student grade levels.

Districtwide and by-school military programs and

partnerships.

Bussing options and challenges.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Housing Projections

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Assumptions of U.S. Air Force Projected Housing Unit Demand Increase

Based on
n EA

EAFB FB Ap Approv proved d + P + Pend ndin ing g Sc Scena nario io of

f

app approxi roximate mately ly 1, 1,284 284 ne new ac w active tive du duty ty p personnel. rsonnel.

Housing estimates only for active duty personnel

and their families. Wh When ar n are e th the n new pe w personnel rsonnel an anticipate ticipated d to to ar arrive ive at at EA EAFB? FB?

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Year FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 TOTAL Number of Active Duty Personnel Added to EAFB

1 76 566 641 1,284

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Assumptions of U.S. Air Force Projected Housing Unit Demand Increase

Not included in original U.S.A.F. estimates:

▪ Additional demand by federal civilians at

EAFB.

▪ Additional demand by technical consultants. ▪ Additional demand from induced

population.

Availability of on-base housing:
125 on-base houses/units.
50 on-base dorm units available.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Methodological Note on U.S. Air Force Housing Forecasts

Air Force has determined what individual officer

and enlisted personnel they need for the F-35 beddown operation.

Air Force has used Air Force-wide statistics to

determine approximately how many of those

fficers and personnel will be married or single,

and how many personnel will have children.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Example Statistics Used in Air Force Housing Estimates

59% of Air Force personnel are assumed

to be married; 41% are assumed to be single.

Of married personnel:
Approximately 74% will be married and accompanied by

a non-military spouse.

Approximately 18% will be married to another military

person in the same unit.

Approximately 9% are likely to transfer without their

spouse or dependents.

Not

te:

: Married percentages have been rounded and sum to 101%. This accounts in part for a slight overstatement of off-base family housing needs—should be 641 rather than 647.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Forecast of F-35 Beddown Housing Demand w/Federal Civilian Employees + Technical Consultants

Ap Approved roved Sc Scenar enario io –

762

62 Un Unit its s for Active Duty Personnel +

119

119 Un Unit its s Co Combined mbined for Federal Civilian Employees and Technical Consultants TO TOTA TAL L = = 88 881 p 1 potenti ential al nee eeded ded housi sing ng unit its O s OFF FF-BAS ASE

(this is is is the de demand s d sid ide of

f t

the hou

usin

ing g qu question, ion, NOT supp pply) ly)

Ap Approved roved + + Pe Pending nding Sc Scenar enario io –

84

848 Units for Active Duty Personnel +

181

181 Units Combined for Federal Civilian Employees and Technical Consultants TOT TOTAL AL = = 1, 1,029 029 po potential tential ne neede eded d ho hous usin ing g un unit its OF s OFF-BASE BASE

(this is is is the de demand s d sid ide of

f t

the hou

usin

ing g qu question, ion, NOT supp pply) ly) NOTE: E: Does not yet include additional housing demand created by the induced population – people who move to FNSB because of increased levels of economic activity.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Uncertainty in Housing Demand Estimates

With all data-based statistics there is a level of uncertainty.
We assume (based on standard practice) estimates of

married and single officers and enlisted personnel have a 95% level of confidence. The actual number is likely to fall within +/- 2.5% of the estimate provided.

If 59% of all active duty personnel are married under the

Approved and Pending Scenario, the actual number of married personnel is likely to range from 739 to 777, with the most likely estimate to be 758.

Unmarried personnel counts are equally uncertain, but will

also depend on counts of married personnel.

Numbers of unmarried personnel will increase if

counts of married personnel are lower, and decrease if counts of married personnel are higher.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Assumptions

Temporary vs. Permanent Personnel

All active duty personnel will regularly rotate in and
ut of EAFB.
After initial transition period – active duty personnel

will serve 3-year assignments.

Federal civilian employees and technical consultants

would become permanent residents.

After transition period – approximately 1/3 of all

active duty personnel will leave FNSB each year to be replaced by new personnel (mostly demographically similar to outgoing population).

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Housing Research and Methods: Getting from Existing Conditions and Projections to Gaps and Recommendations

Guiding Questions

How much housing is needed and where? What exists today?
What are the obstacles to both occupying existing and

developing new housing?

What recommendations/strategies might make sense?

What We’ve Been Doing

Interviews: Organizations, builders, lenders.
Reviewing data: Military forecast, economic trends, real estate

data (vacancy rates), quality of existing stock.

What’s Next

Complete data analysis & interviews
Develop recommendations/strategies for discussion.

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Housing – What We’ve Heard So Far

Existing Stock

Vacancy
Quality
Location

New Housing

Expensive
Utilities
Financing

Type of Housing

Multi family or

Single family

Location/drive

time

Units Needed

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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What We’ve Learned So Far: Existing Stock and Vacancy

March 2017, FNSB surveyed 40-50 property owners/renters (apartments, some houses).*

Approximately 2,951 rental units.
Of those, 443 vacant rental units.
Initial mapping of 83% of 2,951 units indicates:
99% of vacant apartment units are in Fairbanks area.
12% vacancy rate in Fairbanks area.
2.5% vacancy in North Pole area.
66% of vacant apartments are 1 and 2 bedrooms.
Potentially limited quality units and high energy costs

make existing stock undesirable/unrentable.

Homeowner vacancy rate is less than 2 percent (Census,

American Community Survey, 2015).

*FNSB Community Research Quarterly: http://www.co.fairbanks.ak.us/cp/Community%20Research%20Quarterly/Current.pdf

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Preliminary Recommendations and Strategies for Consideration/Discussion

Balanced approach:
Existing stock is part of the solution.
New construction – Example: Focus resources on

a phased planned development close to EAFB.

Consider incentives to improve financial feasibility

and mitigate part of the risk.

Property tax abatement
Military facility zones
Loan guarantees/bridge between debt and equity
Infrastructure support

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P R E L I M I N A R Y

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This Week’s Activities

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THI HIS W S WEE EEK: K: Int ntervie views ws wi with th edu duca cation, tion, ho housin using, g, he heal alth th an and d so social cial se service vice expe perts rts an and pr d prese esentations. ntations. Mon

nda

day, y, Aug Augus ust 14, t 14, 20 2017 17

7:00 p.m. – 9:00 p.m.: Salcha Senior Center – OPE

OPEN N TO O THE HE PUB UBLIC LIC Tue uesd sday, ay, Aug Augus ust 15, t 15, 20 2017 17

11:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m.: Fa

Fairba irbanks nks Ch Chambe amber r of

f Co

Comm mmerce erce; Carlson Center – OP OPEN EN TO O THE HE PUB UBLIC LIC

5:30 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.: FN

FNSB SB Plann lanning ing Co Comm mmissio ission; Assembly Chambers – OP OPEN EN TO TH O THE E PUB UBLI LIC C

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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This Week’s Activities

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We Wedn dnesd sday ay, , Aug Augus ust 16, t 16, 20 2017 17

10:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.: Gre

reater ater Fa Fairba irbanks nks Board

ard of
f

Re Real altors tors; Westmark Hotel Gold Room – MEM EMBER BER MEE EETING NG

6:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.: No

North rth Pole

le City Council, North Pole

Chamber of Commerce, community members; North Pole City Council Chambers – OP OPEN EN TO O THE HE PUB UBLI LIC Thu hurs rsda day, y, Aug Augus ust 1 t 17, 7, 20 2017 17

2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.: Int

nterior ior Al Alaska aska de dele lega gation tion; Fairbanks Legislative Information Office – OP OPEN EN TO TH O THE E PUB UBLI LIC

7:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.: Work Session with FNS

FNSB As Asse sembl mbly. Assembly Chambers – OP OPEN EN TO TH O THE E PUB UBLI LIC

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Next Steps

In In th the co e coming ming mo months: nths:

Continue information gathering and sharing with focus area

experts, Air Force, Army and community leaders.

Information sharing at community activities and events

(check out: www.EAFBregionalgrowth.com).

Develop gap analysis and preliminary recommendations.

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Schedule + Tasks

Project Initiation + Information Sharing Reconnaissance + What We Learned Drafts + Final Regional Growth Plan

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

Eielson Regional Growth Plan Focus Areas

Existing Conditions
Regional Housing
Fiscal Impact
Education
Transportation
Planning + Zoning
Utilities + Infrastructure
Utilities + Infrastructure
Public Safety
Health + Social Services
Quality of Life
Workforce Development
Regional Coordination
Implementation Plan

We need your input on these topics

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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DRAFT – FNSB: Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017

How to Get Involved

Visit sit us us Online line

Live on August 18th! www.EAFBregionalgrowth.com

Lea earn rn ab abou

ut

t th the e pro rojec ject t an and

th

ther er FN FNSB SB ec economic nomic devel elopm

pment

ent ef effor

rts

ts on Fac acebook ebook an and Twi witt tter er

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/EconDevFNSB/ Twitter: @EconDevFNSB

Si Sign n up up for r re regul ular ar pro roject ect up updat ates es Se Sent ap approxi ximatel mately y on

nce

ce a a mo month

To sign up for electronic updates, send us an email: JStepp@fnsb.us

Cont ntact act us us wi with th ideas, eas, qu ques esti tions

ns or

r conce ncerns rns Jeff Stepp Special Assistant to the Mayor, Fairbanks North Star Borough JStepp@fnsb.us Direct (907) 459-1351 Office (907) 459-1300 Cell (907) 371-6384 Shelly Wade Member, Arcadis Project Team and Principal/Owner, Agnew::Beck Consulting shelly@agnewbeck.com Direct/Cell (907) 987-9818

P R E L I M I N A R Y

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2016 2005

DRAFT – Preliminary Findings, Eielson Regional Growth Plan, August 2017