World Energy Demand 2100: 40-50 TW 2050: 25-30 TW 25.00 World - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

World Energy Demand

EIA Intl Energy Outlook 2004 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

10 20 30 40 50 %

World Fuel Mix 2001

• il

gas coal nucl renew

85% fossil

2100: 40-50 TW 2050: 25-30 TW

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1970 1990 2010 2030

TW

World Energy Demand

total

industrial developing US ee/fsu

energy gap ~ 14 TW by 2050 ~ 33 TW by 2100

Hoffert et al Nature 395, 883,1998

The Energy Gap

• ~ 14 TW of additional power by 2050
• ~ 33 TW of additional power by 2100

2004 capacity: 13 TW

fossil energy

after oil production peaks, switch to gas and coal capture/store 22 Gtonnes of CO2/yr (current emissions)

• 12,500 km3 at atmospheric pressure = volume of Lake Superior
• 600 times CO2 injected in oil wells/yr to spur production
• 100 times the natural gas drawn in and out of geologic storage/yr to smooth

demand

• 20,000 times CO2 stored/yr in Norway’s Sleipner offshore reservior
• no leaks: 1% leak rate nullifies storage in 100 yrs

nuclear energy

14,000 1 GWe fission reactors - 1 new reactor/day for 38 years

Renewable Energy

Solar

1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical

Biomass

5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food

Hydroelectric Geothermal Wind

2-4 TW extractable

4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity

12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable

Tide/Ocean Currents

2 TW gross

energy gap ~ 14 TW by 2050 ~ 33 TW by 2100

Solar Energy Utilization

Solar Electric Solar Fuel Solar Thermal

.001 TW PV $0.30/kWh w/o storage

CO2

sugar natural photosynthesis 50 - 200 °C space, water heating 500 - 3000 °C heat engines electricity generation process heat

1.5 TW electricity $0.03-$0.06/kWh (fossil) 1.4 TW solar fuel (biomass) ~ 14 TW additional energy by 2050 0.002 TW 11 TW fossil fuel (present use) 2 TW space and water heating

H2O O2

Solar Land Area Requirements

3 TW

“Solar Paint”

inexpensive processing, conformal layers

polymer donor MDMO-PPV fullerene acceptor PCBM

O O

( )n

O OMe O OMe

d

“Fooling “inexpensive particles into behaving as single crystals

Light Fuel Electricity Photosynthesis

Fuels Electricity

Photovoltaics

sc e SC

CO Sugar H O O

2 2 2

Energy Conversion Strategies

Semiconductor/Liquid Junctions H2O O H2

2

SC

Solar Thermal + Electrolyzer System

Solar-Powered Catalysts for Fuel Formation

hydrogenase 2H+ + 2e- ⇔ H2

10 µ chlamydomonas moewusii

2 H2O O2 4e- 4H+ CO2 HCOOH CH3OH H2, CH4

Cat Cat

• xidation

reduction photosystem II

Control of Materials Properties Through Nanoscience

biological physical

demonstrated efficiencies 10-18% in laboratory

+

• H2

O2

Self-assembly of complex structures Hydrogen from water and sunlight

mechanical

Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy

• The Sun is a singular solution to our future energy needs
• capacity dwarfs fossil, nuclear, wind . . .
• sunlight delivers more energy in one hour

than the earth uses in one year

• free of greenhouse gases and pollutants
• secure from geo-political constraints
• Enormous gap between our tiny use
• f solar energy and its immense potential
• Incremental advances in today’s technology

will not bridge the gap

• Conceptual breakthroughs are needed that come
• nly from high risk-high payoff basic research
• Interdisciplinary research is required

physics, chemistry, biology, materials, nanoscience

• Basic and applied science should couple seamlessly

• Need for Additional Primary Energy is Apparent
• Case for Significant (Daunting?) Carbon-Free Energy Seems

Plausible (Imperative?) Scientific/Technological Challenges

• Provide Disruptive Solar Technology: Cheap Solar Fuel

Inexpensive conversion systems, effective storage systems Policy Challenges

• Energy Security, National Security, Environmental Security,

Economic Security

• Is Failure an Option? Will there be the needed commitment?

Summary