THE PERSPECTIVES ON ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH IN BRAZIL CLOSING PLENARY - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 1

CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 37th IAEE International Conference June 18th, 2014 New York City, USA

Mauricio T. Tolmasquim

CEO Energy Research Office - EPE

THE PERSPECTIVES ON ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH IN BRAZIL

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 2

BRAZIL: GDP AND ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH

• % a.a.

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 3

TPES PER CAPITA AND GDP PER CAPITA

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 4

ENERGY BALANCE: THE RENEWABLE SHARE

Renewables: Hydro, Biomass,renewable fuels, waste, solar power, wind power, geothermal . Non-Renewables: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal

Sources: EPE and IEA

BRASIL 2013

RENEWABLES = 41.0%

OECD 2012

RENEWABLES = 9.0%

WORLD 2011

RENEWABLES = 13.3%

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 5

BRAZIL: ENERGY RESOURCES

WIND SUN EARTH SEA WATER

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 6

WATER

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 7

Brazil has the third biggest hydro potential

• f the world ...

Others, 44%

China, 13% Russia, 12% Brazil, 10% Canada, 7% Congo, 5% India, 5% USA, 4%

Source: Tolmasquim, M. (coord). Geração de Energia Elétrica no Brasil. Ed. Interciência, 2005.

Estimated Brazilian hydro potential

260 GW

BRAZILIAN HYDRO POTENTIAL

... however only

• ne third of it

has been developed

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 8 Notes:

• 1. Based on data from World Energy Council, considering plants in operation and under constructions, at the end of 1999.
• 2. In the case of Brazil, based on data from EPE and Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil, published by ANEEL. In the case of China, based on data from Worldwatch

Institute.

% of technical potential

HYDRO POTENTIAL: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 9

HYDRO POTENTIAL YET TO BE EXPLORED

41%

Hydro potential to develop Amazon basin, 59%

Potential to be developed:

96 GW (out of 175GW)

Potential left intact:

79 GW (out of 175GW)

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 10

OK

EARTH

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 11

1 ton sugar cane 1,718 x 103 kcal 1 crude oil barrel 1,386 x 103 kcal 153 kg sugars and

ethanol

276 kg bagasse (50% humidity) 165 kg cuts & leaves (15% humidity)

1 ton sugar cane = 1.2 crude oil barrel Sugarcane has a high energetic content

BIOMASS FROM SUGARCANE IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE

608 x 103 kcal 35% 598 x 103 kcal 35% 512 x 103 kcal 30%

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 12

Favorable geographic and natural conditions land availability for agriculture soil characteristics climate conditions (sun, rain, etc.) Technology developed ethanol cogeneration from bagasse

• ther uses

Relatively low production cost

Brazil has a huge bioenergy potential (biofuel and bioelectricity)

BIOMASS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 13

WIND

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 14

BRAZILIAN WIND POWER POTENTIAL

ESTIMATED POTENTIAL 300 GW

(100 m )

ESTIMATED POTENTIAL 143.5 GW

( 50 m)

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 15

WIND POWER DEVELOPING FASTER AFTER POWER AUCTIONS

• !"

" !

• #!

#"" # !# #! # # #!!

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 16

WIND FARM

HYDROPOWER RESERVOIRS AS WIND FARMS AND BIOMASS POWER PLANTS BATTERIES

HYDROPOWER RESERVOIR BIOMASS POWER PLANT Source: EPE

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 17

SUN

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 18

SOLAR ENERGY: BRAZIL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES

Country Global Horizontal Irradiation in a year (kWh/m²) Brazil 1500 – 2200 Germany 900 – 1250 France 900 – 1650 Spain 1200 – 1850

Global horizontal irradiation is the most important parameter for assessing solar energy potential of a particular region.

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 19

OK

SEA

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 20

BRAZIL OIL PRODUCTION PROFILE

$%%&& '(&) *)%

• *

Source: IEA

million bpd

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 21

THE IMPORTANCE OF BRAZIL TO WORLD OIL MARKETS IN 2020

• 2012

2020 2030

Existing Projects

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/0

1 2

• 2
• 3
• )
• 4*

25)

. 1)& *&)

Source: Petrobras and WoodMackenzie

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 22

ENERGY RESOURCES POTENTIAL: URANIUM EARTH II: URANIUM

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 23

• NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE

LARGE URANIUM RESERVES Angra I, II and III

INB plant (RJ) Resende industrial plant (RJ) Navy Research Center (SP)

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& '

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 24

BRAZILIAN ENERGY BALANCE BRAZILIAN ENERGY BALANCE

THE LONG THE LONG-

• TERM PERSPECTIVE

TERM PERSPECTIVE

Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 25

BRAZILIAN TPES FURTHER AHEAD

EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA - EPE

Thank you very much!

<http://www.epe.gov.br>

• Av. Rio Branco, 1 – 11o andar

20090-003 Rio de Janeiro RJ Tel.: + 55 (21) 3512 - 3100 Fax: + 55 (21) 3512 - 3199