What is happening to the world? Professor Sir John Beddington - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

What is happening to the world? Professor Sir John Beddington Oxford Martin School, Oxford University President, ZSL 7 th September 2016 Zoological Society of London Slides are credited to: Professor Sir John Beddington CMG FRS, the Oxford Martin School and ZSL

The Global ‘In - Tray’ Novel Climate change Air pollution Inequality Brexit biotechnologies Antibiotic resistance Migrant crises Conservation Nuclear proliferation Zika virus challenges Environmental Terrorism African famine Cybersecurity Financial Stability disasters There is clearly huge uncertainty…

However, in key ways, the early 21 st Century is already determined The global community will have to contend with a number of significant challenges Consumption will increase with prosperity Demographic momentum: An extra billion people by 2025 Urbanisation: global urban:rural ratio ~55% by 2025 Climate change: GHG in the atmosphere now will drive changes up to 2030 Alemao Shanty Town, Brazil Brazil is forecast to have 90% urbanisation by 2020 33% of the world’s urban population live in slums

Global Population and Urbanization Predictions Historical progression of Global Population Total Year Interval Population 3 billion 1959 4 Billion 1974 15 years 5 Billion 1987 13 years Source: World Population Prospects 2015, UN • Of the additional 2.4bn people projected to be 6 Billion 1998 11 years added to the global population between 2015 7 Billion 2011 13 years and 2030, 1.3bn will be added in Africa • The urban global population will increase by 8 Billion 2022 11 years around 1.5bn people – and 90% of them will 9 Billion 2040 18 years be in Asia and Africa • The fastest growing urban agglomerations are 10 Billion 2055 15 years medium sized cities (<1m inhabitants) in Asia and Africa

Future climate warming is also unequivocal, and there is growing evidence that there will be increasing weather volatility 600 1000 900 550 800 Global catastrophes per year Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv) 700 500 600 450 500 400 400 300 200 350 100 300 0 Number of natural disasters per year, as recorded by Munich Re Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (ppmv), as measured by the IPCC Reference carbon dioxide concentration scenarios, as projected by the IPCC • Due to climate system inertia, emissions made around twenty years ago drive the present-day climate • There is a growing body of evidence that links human influence on climate with increasing risks of certain types of extremes, notably heatwaves (e.g. Chinese spring 2014), floods (e.g. UK winter rainfall 2013/2014), and hurricanes (e.g. Hawaiian 2014 hurricane season).

The changing global poverty landscape and the rise of the global middle class Number of households with daily expenditures $10-100, in millions Numbers of individuals living below $1.25/day, in millions

Consequences for food, water and energy: the “Perfect Storm” Source: Professor Sir John Beddington, Biodiversity: Policy Challenges in a Changing World London: Government Office for Science, 2009

CONSERVATION BIODIVERSITY

A Changing Global Balance Asia in 2030: 4.9bn people, 3.3bn of working age Africa in 2030: 1.6bn people, 800m of working age Europe in 2030: 700m people, 460m of working age

Biodiversity status update Monstersky (2014) Life – a status report, Nature 516: 159-161 % of described species under threat of extinction Many species remain undescribed thus their conservation status is unknown ? Only 0.5% of Most data exists for insects described these groups have been evaluated Estimates of current extinction rates vary from 10 to 690 extinctions per week Photo credits (left to right): iStock/GlobalP, iStock/amwu, iStock/Studio-Anika, iStock/kurga

Main threats to animal populations [Source: Monastersky (2014). Nature, 516: 159-161] How can we conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world?

The Next 15 Years • Population – 1 billion more people • Urbanisation – population increase concentrated in cities • A more prosperous world, but further strain on resources • Complex demographic trends • Migration to vulnerable areas • Climate change is happening – a risk multiplier A Changing Global Balance: by 2030 Asia: 4.9bn people, 3.3bn of working age Africa: 1.6bn people, 800m of working age Europe: 700m people, 460m of working age Overall: an increased vulnerability to shocks and pressures 2030 compared to 2012 Source Food +38% FAO (TOWARDS 2030/2050) Water 60% gap in supply/demand Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand, 2013 Energy +54% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2012 Emissions (GHG) +37% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2012

A Possible Global ‘In - Tray’ of 2030… HIGH Resource Biotechnological Urbanisation Volatile weather 1bn more people c inequality innovation o n f i d e Continued prosperity? +1’C warmer? Antibiotic resistance? A biodiversity crisis? n c e Artificial Economic Environmental Pandemics? LOW intelligence?? disasters?? depression??