What is happening to the world? Professor Sir John Beddington - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
What is happening to the world? Professor Sir John Beddington Oxford Martin School, Oxford University President, ZSL 7 th September 2016 Zoological Society of London Slides are credited to: Professor Sir John Beddington CMG FRS, the Oxford
Professor Sir John Beddington Oxford Martin School, Oxford University President, ZSL 7th September 2016 Zoological Society of London
Slides are credited to: Professor Sir John Beddington CMG FRS, the Oxford Martin School and ZSL
Climate change Antibiotic resistance Zika virus Novel biotechnologies Brexit Migrant crises Inequality African famine Terrorism Cybersecurity Financial Stability Conservation challenges Air pollution Nuclear proliferation Environmental disasters
The global community will have to contend with a number of significant challenges
Urbanisation:
global urban:rural ratio ~55% by 2025
Climate change:
GHG in the atmosphere now will drive changes up to 2030
Demographic momentum:
An extra billion people by 2025 Consumption will increase with prosperity
Alemao Shanty Town, Brazil Brazil is forecast to have 90% urbanisation by 2020 33% of the world’s urban population live in slums
Total Population Year Interval 3 billion 1959 4 Billion 1974 15 years 5 Billion 1987 13 years 6 Billion 1998 11 years 7 Billion 2011 13 years 8 Billion 2022 11 years 9 Billion 2040 18 years 10 Billion 2055 15 years Historical progression of Global Population
added to the global population between 2015 and 2030, 1.3bn will be added in Africa
around 1.5bn people – and 90% of them will be in Asia and Africa
medium sized cities (<1m inhabitants) in Asia and Africa
Source: World Population Prospects 2015, UN
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
Global catastrophes per year Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
Number of natural disasters per year, as recorded by Munich Re Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (ppmv), as measured by the IPCC Reference carbon dioxide concentration scenarios, as projected by the IPCC
Future climate warming is also unequivocal, and there is growing evidence that there will be increasing weather volatility
climate
winter rainfall 2013/2014), and hurricanes (e.g. Hawaiian 2014 hurricane season).
Number of households with daily expenditures $10-100, in millions Numbers of individuals living below $1.25/day, in millions
Source: Professor Sir John Beddington, Biodiversity: Policy Challenges in a Changing World London: Government Office for Science, 2009
Asia in 2030: 4.9bn people, 3.3bn of working age Africa in 2030: 1.6bn people, 800m of working age Europe in 2030: 700m people, 460m of working age
Estimates of current extinction rates vary from 10 to 690 extinctions per week
Many species remain undescribed thus their conservation status is unknown
Monstersky (2014) Life – a status report, Nature 516: 159-161
Most data exists for these groups
% of described species under threat of extinction
Only 0.5% of insects described have been evaluated
Photo credits (left to right): iStock/GlobalP, iStock/amwu, iStock/Studio-Anika, iStock/kurga
[Source: Monastersky (2014). Nature, 516: 159-161]
Overall: an increased vulnerability to shocks and pressures
2030 compared to 2012
Source Food +38% FAO (TOWARDS 2030/2050) Water 60% gap in supply/demand Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand, 2013 Energy +54% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2012 Emissions (GHG) +37% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2012
A Changing Global Balance: by 2030 Asia: 4.9bn people, 3.3bn of working age Africa: 1.6bn people, 800m of working age Europe: 700m people, 460m of working age
Pandemics? Resource inequality 1bn more people Urbanisation Biotechnological innovation +1’C warmer? Continued prosperity? A biodiversity crisis? Artificial intelligence?? Economic depression?? Antibiotic resistance? Volatile weather Environmental disasters??
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