Understanding in Crossing Temporal and Spatial Scales: Three - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• M. Jonas

30 April 2015 – 1

Advanced Systems Understanding in Crossing Temporal and Spatial Scales: Three Examples

• M. JONAS on behalf of IIASA’s ASA Program

IIASA, Austria; 10 October 2016

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The three examples

Example 1: GHG + T  2050 target Example 2: CO2 + T + biodiversity  two PBs Example 3: GHG + T  persistence

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Example 1

• 2. To put uncertainties that are associated with

accounting emissions for compliance purposes into a wider quantitative context

• 1. To bring a global long-term emissions-temperature-

uncertainty issue (2ºC-by-2050) to the here and now  to emission targets on the near-term scale  to emission targets on the national scale

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Example 1

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/archive/2011/CarbonBudget_2011.ppt

2050 2100

ere ere

?

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Example 1

Meinshausen et al. (2009: Fig. 2)

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Example 1

Meinshausen et al. (2009: Fig. 3)

10 42 234 25

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Example 1

Additional undershooting

Time

2050

Diagnostic Prognostic Combined

Massari Coelho et al. (2012: Fig. 10)

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Example 1

Jonas &Nilsson (2007: Fig. 9); modified

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Example 1

Jonas & Żebrowski (2016: Fig. 2b)

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Example 2

Consider a simplified terrestrial carbon–plant biodiversity (C-B) system

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Example 2

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Example 2

Important take-home messages:

Addressing sustainability  requires a stock-based view! Framework needed  to facilitate decision making from the planetary to the local level, and vice versa!

Here: The LUC system is described in terms of PBs, here C and B; but if they were to be met globally, they would need to be monitored and tracked across scales from local to global (assuming that socio-ecological policies are implemented by nations, organizations, and individuals)

An important modeling component is not in place  with the focus on interrelations of key system parameters (B, C, N, P, water, etc.) and how their characteristics (feedbacks, thresholds, critical transitions, etc.) emerge at the planetary scale!

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Example 3

An easy-to-apply metric or indicator is needed that informs non-experts about the time in the future at which a prognostic scenario ceases to be (for whatever reasons) in accordance with the system’s past. This indicator should be applicable in treating a system / model coherently (from beginning to end)!

2050 2014 Past Future

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Example 3

Via persistence (memory) to explainable outreach:

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Example 3

Important take-home messages:

Linking past and future  requires understanding the persistence of a system! As above while accounting for the human impact  requires understanding the system’s persistence at the right resolution

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References