Trends and Analysis Vail R. Brown, CHMS Vice President, Global - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Beyond Bullet Points: Statistics, Trends and Analysis Vail R. Brown, CHMS Vice President, Global Business Development & Marketing Society of Government Travel Professionals September 18, 2014 vail_str vbrown@str.com 5 Things to Know ..
Beyond Bullet Points: Statistics, Trends and Analysis
Vail R. Brown, CHMS
Vice President, Global Business Development & Marketing
vail_str vbrown@str.com Society of Government Travel Professionals September 18, 2014
5 Things to Know …..
U.S. Pulse - Positive So Far
U.S. Records Set in 2013!
Most Rooms Available Most Rooms Sold Highest Rooms Revenue Highest ADR ($110) Highest RevPAR ($70)
Full Year 2013
Highest May of any on record…ever!
Highest June occupancy this century!
July 2014: Most Rooms Sold Ever!
Strong Demand Drives Very Strong RevPAR % Change
0.8%
4.2%
65.1% 3.4%
$115 4.3%
$75 7.8%
8.6%
Total U.S. As of July 2014 YTD *All Time High for First 7 Months
Demand Growth Accelerates. How Long Can That Last?
4 8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Supply Demand
Total U.S. Supply & Demand % Change 12 Month Moving Average Jan. 1990 – July 2014
8.0% 3.4%
Steady ADR Growth As Room Demand Growth Continues
5 10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Demand % Change ADR % Change
7.5% 6.8%
4.0% Total U.S., ADR & Demand % Change 12 Month Moving Average Jan. 1990 – July 2014
Homewood Suites, Courtyard, Best Western Premier
Inn/Suites, Best Western PLUS
Quality Inn/Suites
2014 STR Chain Scales
*Full list go to www.str.com
A Tale of 2 Supply Growth Scenarios
0.8 1.5 3.5 0.4
0.4 1.6 3.8 6.6 4.0 3.0 4.3
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply % Change Demand % Change
U.S. Chain Scales: Supply / Demand % Change As of July 2014 YTD
ADR Growth Strong Across The Board
0.7 2.3 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.7 4.4 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Occupancy % Change ADR % Change
U.S. Chain Scales: OCC / ADR % Change As of July 2014 YTD
Actual RevPAR Catches Up To Prior Record Highs
$213 $113 $84 $62 $44 $31 $217 $116 $87 $64 $43 $30
$226 $123 $93 $68 $46 $32
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
2007 2013 2014F
U.S. Chain Scales: Absolute RevPAR $ 2007 & 2013 & 2014 Forecast as of August 2014
Group Demand ‘Comeback’?
Group Transient Contract
Segmentation
Total U.S.: Transient Occupancy Share Increases
43% 57%
Group Transient
36% 64%
U.S. Transient and Group Occupancy as Share of Total OCC 2005 and 2013 (Share does not include contract)
2005 2013
U.S. Transient and Group Occupancy Mix of Total OCC 2005 thru July 2014
Transient Continues To Grow Share of Occupancy
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Group mix Trans Mix
1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
2012 2013 2014
Demand ADR
U.S. Group Demand and ADR % Change 12 Month Moving Average, Jan. 2012 – July 2014
Group Demand Is (Finally!) Recovering
*2013 Easter Comp
more group rooms sold than in the prior 12 month
Transient Room Premium Back to 2008 Levels
$194 $164 $168 $178 $186 $194 $204 $173 $161 $157 $161 $166 $172 $177
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014
Transient Group
U.S. Customer Segmentation ADR $ 2008 – YTD July 2014
U.S. Market Performance
Top U.S. Markets Demand Growth %, July 2014 YTD
Markets With Demand Growth > 4%
Actual OCC & ADR % Change in Top 25 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing Markets ending July 2014 YTD
Market OCC % ADR % Change
Nashville, TN 72.8 13.2 San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 83.2 11.3 Denver, CO 76.2 8.1 Seattle, WA 75.4 7.6 Boston, MA 74.3 7.1 Chicago, IL 67.9 1.7 Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 55.5 1.7 New Orleans, LA 71.2 1.6 Philadelphia, PA-NJ 68.5 0.2 Washington, DC-MD-VA 70.3
Not all growth or declines are created equal…many factors
Pipeline Accelerates
In Construction – Vertical construction on the physical building has begun. (This does not include construction
Final Planning – construction will begin within the next 12 months. Planning – construction will begin in more than 13 months. Unconfirmed (formerly Pre-Planning) - Potential projects that remain unconfirmed at this time.
Under Contract
STR Pipeline Phases
Under Contract Pipeline- 12% Increase
Phase 2014 2013 % Change In Construction 108 75 44% Final Planning 124 126
Planning 155 144 8% Under Contract 388 345 12%
Total U.S. Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms July 2014 and 2013
Most In Upscale & Upper Midscale
3.5 10.3 40.4 30.9 5.1 0.8 15.4
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
Total U.S. Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, June 2014
67%
Construction In Top 26 Markets: 15 With 2%+ Of Supply
U.S. Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, July 2014 Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing
Chicago, IL 2,292 2.1% Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI 832 2.2% New Orleans, LA 826 2.2% Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 2,187 2.2% San Diego, CA 1,381 2.3% Dallas, TX 1,826 2.3% Washington, DC-MD-VA 2,507 2.3% Boston, MA 1,379 2.7% Denver, CO 1,250 2.9% Nashville, TN 1,157 3.1% Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 2,394 4.4% Seattle, WA 1,937 4.7% Miami-Hialeah, FL 2,653 5.4% Houston, TX 4,672 6.2% New York, NY 13,989 12.5%
New Hotels w/ 50,000+ Sqft Meeting Space
12 9 5 2 2 2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014
Total U.S. Count of New Hotels with 50k+ Sqft of meeting space By year, 2008 – YTD 2014
Where are we headed?
Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future
5 10
1990 2000 2010
9% 8.6%
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 Month Moving Average Jan. 1990 – July 2014
65 Months 46 Mo. 112 Months
Total United States: Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2014 - 2015
U.S. Outlook
2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast Supply
1.0% 1.3%
Demand
3.6% 2.1%
Occupancy
2.6% 0.7%
ADR
4.2% 4.4%
RevPAR
6.9% 5.2%
2014 Year End Outlook
U.S. Chain Scales Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury
4.6% 4.5%
Upper Upscale
2.0% 4.4% 6.5%
Upscale
2.0% 4.4% 6.5%
Upper Midscale
2.6% 3.3% 6.0%
Midscale
3.0% 3.5% 6.6%
Economy
2.9% 3.9% 6.8%
Independent
2.8% 4.6% 7.5% Total United States 2.6% 4.2% 6.9%
As of August 12th , 2014
0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15% 15%+
Chicago Anaheim Atlanta Nashville New Orleans Detroit Boston New York Houston Dallas Norfolk Los Angeles Denver Philadelphia Miami San Francisco Washington Minneapolis Seattle Oahu Tampa Orlando Phoenix San Diego
2014 Year End RevPAR Forecast
Top 25 U.S. Markets, August 2014 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
2015 Year End RevPAR Forecast
0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
New York Atlanta Anaheim Nashville New Orleans Boston Norfolk Chicago Philadelphia Dallas Washington Denver Detroit Houston Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis Oahu Orlando Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Seattle
Tampa
Top 25 U.S. Markets, August 2014 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
To Recap…
Slides: www.HotelNewsNow.com Questions: vbrown@str.com
Thank you!