Using Google Trends Data Seth Stephens-Davidowitz October 1, 2014 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Using Google Trends Data

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz October 1, 2014

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Google Trends

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“Jewish” Search Rate

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“Mormon” Search Rate

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Huge Advantage of Google Search Data

Social desirability bias

People lie to surveys People very honest on Google

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• 1. Cost of racism on black candidate.

Racist search rate, 2004-2007: 200 DMAs. Difference between Obama and Kerry vote shares.

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• 1. Cost of racism on black candidate

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• 1. Cost of racism on black candidate

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• 1. Cost of racism on black candidate.

Conclusions

1

Survey data: Racism cost Obama 1-2 % of vote.

2

Google data: Racism cost Obama 3-5 % of vote.

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• 2. Predicting turnout (and possibly elections)

Searches for “vote” in October Compared to 4 years earlier.

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NV UT MD LA ND AR SD WY AK MT FL NH TN NM OH ME WV ID MN OR IA OK NC HI SC KY IN AL WI TX MI PA MA WA KS NE CO RI GA NJ IL CT MO AZ NY MS

−.1 −.05 .05 .1 .15 ∆ ln(Turnout Rate) −.4 −.2 .2 .4 ∆ ln(Google Vote Search)

R

2 = 0.21

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NV UT MD LA ND AR SD WY AK MT FL NH TN NM OH ME WV ID MN OR IA OK NC HI SC KY IN AL WI TX MI PA MA WA KS NE CO RI GA NJ IL CT MO AZ NY MS

−.2 −.1 .1 .2 .3 ln(Turnout Rate) −.5 .5 1 ∆ ln(Google Vote Search)

R

2 = 0.43

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• 3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

Compare child maltreatment rates to exposure to recession. Exposure to recession: Unemployment(2009+2010) - Unemployment(2006+2007)

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• 3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

AK AL AR AZ CA CO DC DE FL GA IA IN KS KY MA ME MN MO MS MT NE NH NM NV OK OR RI SC SD TX UT VA VT WA WI WV

−.6 −.4 −.2 .2 .4 2 4 6 8 10 ∆ Unemployment Rate

t = −2.31

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• 3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

AL AR AZ CO CT DC DE FL GA HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA ME MN MO MT ND NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT WA WI WV

−2 −1 1 2 ∆ Fatality Rate 2 4 6 8 10 ∆ Unemployment Rate

t = 1.74

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• 3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

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• 3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

AK AL AR AZ CO CT DC FL GA HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT WA WI WV WY

−.3 −.2 −.1 .1 ∆ ln(Google) 2 4 6 8 10 ∆ Unemployment Rate

t = 3.03

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• 3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

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• 3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

Conclusions

1

CPS data: Great Recession decreased child abuse.

2

Google data (+ mortality data): Great Recession increased child abuse.

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Conclusions

Anonymous, aggregate Google searches excellent new data for social scientists. Google searches particularly valuable for socially sensitive topics. More of my work: sethsd.com

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