Transportation Market Trends Opportunities for Additional GHG - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transportation Market Trends Opportunities for Additional GHG Reductions From Petroleum Transportation Fuels Workshop Sacramento, CA August 20, 2018 Siva Gunda Energy Assessments Division California Energy Commission Siva.Gunda@energy.ca.gov
August 20, 2018 Siva Gunda Energy Assessments Division California Energy Commission Siva.Gunda@energy.ca.gov
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2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Jan-1981 Jan-1982 Jan-1983 Jan-1984 Jan-1985 Jan-1986 Jan-1987 Jan-1988 Jan-1989 Jan-1990 Jan-1991 Jan-1992 Jan-1993 Jan-1994 Jan-1995 Jan-1996 Jan-1997 Jan-1998 Jan-1999 Jan-2000 Jan-2001 Jan-2002 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 Jan-2018
Thousands of Barrels Per Day
U.S. Less California California + Outer Continental Shelf
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
9.989 million barrels per day 0.478 million barrels per day 7.535 million barrels per day 1.005 million barrels per day
Outside of California, U.S. oil production has increased 135.6 percent between the low point
development of domestic shale oil deposits, steadily improving drilling efficiency & a dramatic increase of hydraulic fracturing. California output has declined 27.8 percent. Although California contains some shale oil deposits (according to EIA & USGS), a similar rebound of oil production in the state has not occurred due to more complex geological formations that greatly increase development costs & a significant downward revision in the volume of technically recoverable oil.
4.240 million barrels per day
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3,069 915 455 389 347 168
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Texas North Dakota New Mexico Oklahoma Colorado Rest of U.S. California Alaska
Thousands of Barrels Per Day
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. crude oil production has changed from 5.391 million barrels per day in January 2010 to a record10.474 million barrels per day during March 2018
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Crude oil production gains are from shale oil (tight oil) formations. California & Alaska fields are conventional formations that have been producing for many decades (older fields).
California& Other Domestic Lower 48 Sources Alaska
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Millions of Barrels Foreign
56.7 % 12.3 % 354.1 Million Barrels 31.0 % 77.1 Million Barrels 193.8 Million Barrels
Sources: DOGGR, Energy Information Administration, Class 1 Railroads and the California Energy Commission.
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1.71 million barrels per day in 2017 – foreign receipts expected to grow as California’s output continues to decline.
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Thousands of Barrels per Year Domestic Crude-by- Rail Other Domestic Marine Alaska Saudi Arabia Ecuador Iraq Columbia Brazil Angola INDONESIA MEXICO KUWAIT CANADA ALL OTHERS
Sources: Energy Information Administration and the California Energy Commission.
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Waterborne receipts
diversity of foreign sources increasing.
Nearly 69 percent of oil processed in CA refineries during 2017 was delivered via marine vessels.
4.40% 43.24%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percentage of Total Foreign Imports Northern California Califiornia United States
8/20/2018 8 Contrary to the national trend, California refiners have collectively not been increasing their use of Canadian crude oils. The trend appears to be declining since
time, refiners are expected to offset with other types of
Source: Energy Information Administration
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14,606,188 14,486,190 14,540,241 14,701,647 15,107,812 15,491,961 15,584,894
14,200,000 14,400,000 14,600,000 14,800,000 15,000,000 15,200,000 15,400,000 15,600,000 15,800,000 16,000,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Thousands of Gallons
Source: California Energy Commission analysis of State Board of Equalizationdata.
Highest level since 2007.
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2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17
Percent of Labor Force Unemployed
Source:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
12.0 Percent
Unemployed 4.9 Percent Unemployed
California Unemployment Rate
10
2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 14,000,000,000 16,000,000,000 18,000,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Gallons Base Gasoline Ethanol
Renewable content was an average concentration of 10.1 percent by volume for each gallon of finished gasoline consumed in the state during 2017. Blend wall of 10 percent can be exceeded through additional E85 sales.
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Sources: California Energy Commission analysis of data from the State Board of Equalization, Energy Information Administration & California Air Resources Board.
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500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 4,000,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Gallons Diesel Fuel Renewable Diesel Biodiesel
California policies such as the Low Carbon Fuels Standard are compelling greater use of renewable fuel, attaining an average concentration of 13.4 percent by volume for each gallon of diesel fuel consumed in the state during 2017.
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Sources: California Energy Commission analysis of data from the State Board of Equalization, Energy Information Administration & California Air Resources Board.
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625.7 612.2 598.6 596.2 592.5 591.7 591.3
580 585 590 595 600 605 610 615 620 625 630
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gallons of Gasoline Per Year Per Driver
Sources: California Energy Commission analysis of State Board of Equalizationand Federal Highway Administration data.
California continues to reduce gasoline use per driver, assisted by growing sales of alternative vehicles.
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612.2 598.6 596.2 592.5 591.7 591.3 636.0 634.1 644.5 644.9 652.2 653.3
580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650 660
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gallons of Gasoline Per Year Per Driver
California U.S. Less California
Sources: California Energy Commission analysis of State Board of Equalizationand Federal Highway Administration data.
Opposite trend outside California as consumers preferentially purchase less fuel-efficient light trucks. 8/20/2018
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Oct 2016 Jan 2017 Apr 2017 Jul 2017 Oct 2017
Percentage of Total New Vehicle Sales 64.7 percent of total sales 52.3 percent of total sales
Light Trucks as Percentage
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For technical questions, please contact Gordon Schremp Transportation fuels expert Gordon.Schremp@energy.ca.gov Sudhakar Konala EV expert Sudhakar.Konala@energy.ca.gov
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