Toward a Classification of Ready-to- eat Foods According to Risk or - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Aug 28, 2022 14 likes •115 views

Toward a Classification of Ready-to- eat Foods According to Risk or Other Uses of Risk Assessment in Managing risk Richard C. Whiting Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition Food and Drug Administration Cluster Analysis Risk per

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Toward a Classification of Ready-to- eat Foods According to Risk or Other Uses of Risk Assessment in Managing risk Richard C. Whiting

Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition Food and Drug Administration

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Cluster 4 Cultured Milk Products Ice Cream and Frozen Dairy Products Processed Cheese Hard Cheese Cluster 3 Deli-type Salads Dry/Semi-dry Fermented Sausages Fresh Soft Cheese Frankfurters, reheated Fruits Preserved Fish Raw Seafood Semi-soft Cheese Soft Ripened Cheese Vegetables Cluster 2 Cooked RTE Crustaceans High Fat and Other Dairy Products Pasteurized Fluid Milk Soft Unripened Cheese Cluster 1 Deli Meats Frankfurters, not reheated Pâté and Meat Spreads Unpasteurized Fluid Milk Smoked Seafood Risk per Serving Cluster E Cultured Milk Products Hard Cheese Ice Cream and Frozen Dairy Products Preserved Fish Processed Cheese Raw Seafood Cluster D Deli-type Salads Dry/Semi-dry Fermented Sausages Frankfurters, reheated Fresh Soft Cheese Semi-Soft Cheese Soft Ripened Cheese Vegetables Cluster C Cooked RTE Crustaceans Fruits Pâté and Meat Spreads Unpasteurized Fluid Milk Smoked Seafood Cluster B High Fat and Other Dairy Products Frankfurters, not reheated Pasteurized Fluid Milk Soft Unripened Cheese Cluster A Deli Meats Risk per Annum

Cluster Analysis

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The Model as a Tool

Sensitivity Analyses— ’What-If’ Scenarios

Estimate the impact of intervention strategies by changing 1 or more input parameters and measuring change in the model output Test effects of changes in process or regulation (prediction of impact on public health) Show how different factors interrelate (hypothetical)

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Contamination at Retail

With baseline storage times and temperatures Growth supporting food

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 2 3 4 5 6

Log Reduction Achieved by Intervention Predicted Annual Mortality

Deli Meat - Elderly

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Inhibiting Growth in Frankfurters-Not reheated

0.4 30.5

Cases per annum

(median, total population)

8.2 x 10 - 10 6.5 x 10 - 8

Cases per serving

(median, total population)

Growth inhibited Growth permitted (baseline RA)

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‘What-if’ Scenario for Mortality as a Function of Home Storage Time

5 10 15 20 25 30 Storage time (d) Frequency

Baseline Truncated 15 days

Deli Meat - Elderly

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

5 10 15 20 25 30

Maximum Storage Time (Days) Annual Mortality

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Mortality as a Function of Maximum Storage Temperature

5 10 15 20

Temperature (C) Frequency

Deli Meat - Elderly

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Maximum Refrigerator Temperature (°C) Predicted Annual Mortality

7 C/45 F

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Conclusions and Interpretations

Major factors that affect risk:

Susceptibility of individual Frequency and amount of consumption Frequency and level of contamination Ability of food to support growth Opportunity for growth

Refrigerated storage temperature Refrigerated storage time

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Foods that lead to cases of listeriosis are almost always growth supporting foods with some initial contamination that have been abused It’s not whether a food is below 100 cfu/g or not, the more important question is what is the best public health policy to prevent consumption of 10 4 to 10 6 (or more) cfu/g

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Quantitative assessment of relative risk to public health from foodborne Listeria monocytognees among selected categories of ready-to-eat foods. Sept 2003 www.foodsafety.gov