Total returns of emerging market debt - YTD Local currency bonds - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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total returns of emerging market debt ytd
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Total returns of emerging market debt - YTD Local currency bonds - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 29, 2023 45 likes •79 views

Total returns of emerging market debt - YTD Local currency bonds have outperformed hard currency bonds 5% 4.5% 4% 3.4% 3% 2% 1% 0.1% 0.0% 0% -1% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -2% -2.0% -2.0% -3% Jan-18 Feb-18 Total year To date 2018 Local

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SLIDE 1

Total returns of emerging market debt - YTD

Local currency bonds have outperformed hard currency bonds

Source: M&G, Bloomberg 28th February 2018; JP Morgan indices; returns in USD

BONDVIGILANTES

4.5%

  • 1.0%

3.4% 0.1%

  • 1.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0%

  • 2.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Jan-18 Feb-18 Total year To date 2018 Local currency government bonds Hard currency corporate bonds Hard currency government bonds

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SLIDE 2

EM hard currency funds have replenished more than the entire AUM lost since the taper tantrum

Source: EPFR: Deutsche Bank, January 2018

BONDVIGILANTES

170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Funds flow index (% AUM, Jan 2010 = 100) Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017

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SLIDE 3

China is attempting to tackle its debt problem

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates, March 2018

BONDVIGILANTES

Total non-financial debt across developed and emerging markets

DM = developed markets; EMXC = emerging markets excluding China