Toll Rate Study For August 20, 2015 Board Meeting Toll Rate Study - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

For August 20, 2015 Board Meeting

Toll Rate Study

Toll Rate Study

 Updated Traffic and Earnings Report (“Update Letter”)

• Update of previous 2010 forecast
• Review historical traffic and revenue trends through FY 2014
• Adjust forecast based on actual data since 2010
• Elasticity

 Bridge: estimated from previous two toll increases  Parkway: estimated using the Northwest Florida Regional Planning Model

• Developed updated traffic and revenue forecasts through FY 2040

 Revisions after public information sessions

• Updated SunPass participation rates for FY 2016 and future years
• Adjusted percentage of frequent users

Mid-Bay Bridge & Spence Parkway

Historical Traffic and Revenue Trend

• 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Annual Traffic and Toll Revenue (1994 = 1.00) Fiscal Year ending September 30 Historical Total Traffic Historical Total Toll Revenue

2014 Traffic - 8,466,994 Revenue - $18,147,451 1994 Traffic - 1,896,661 Revenue - $3,204,321

Options

 Eleven tolling options considered

• Four options fully evaluated
• Seven options eliminated from further evaluation

Options Evaluated

 Do not change toll schedule  Increasing the cash/TBP toll rates (visitors)  Sustaining the SunPass discount amount (locals)  Implementing discounts for frequent SunPass users (commuters)

Options Not Carried Forward

 Installing another electronic gantry on the Parkway  Indexing toll increases to the Consumer Price Index  Increasing tolls for multi-axle vehicles  Implementing an accommodation for low-wage earning workers by

• ffering additional discounts to those who meet some predefined criteria

such as a certain income level given the costs of managing program

 Implementing different tolls by direction  Implementing toll discounts by time of day  Implementing congestion toll rates

Two-Tier Tolling Structure

 Present basic toll structure:

• Two-axle non-SunPass vehicles pay full toll
• Two-axle SunPass vehicles pay a discounted toll
• All 3+ axle vehicles pay the full toll according to the “N-1” formula

regardless of method of payment

Three-Tier Tolling Structure

 Present basic toll structure plus an additional discount (rebate) for

frequent users

• Two-axle non-SunPass vehicles pay the full toll
• Two-axle SunPass vehicles pay a discounted toll
• Two-axle SunPass vehicles making over 40 trips per month per SunPass

account pay the lowest toll

• Frequent users rebate is available to only personal SunPass accounts
• Frequent users rebate is NOT available to commercial SunPass accounts
• Number of trips are counted separately by toll plaza
• All 3+ axle vehicles pay the full toll according to the “N-1” formula regardless
• f method of payment or number of trips per month

Analysis

 Data & Assumptions

• A toll collection factor for each facility was calculated to account uncollectible

toll revenues. Toll collection factors of 0.99 and 0.85 were used for the Bridge and the Parkway, respectively, based on current experience.

• The following elasticity factors were used in the calculations:

 Mid-Bay Bridge: Non-SunPass: –0.189, SunPass: –0.164  Spence Parkway: Non-SunPass: –0.300, SunPass: –0.300

• SunPass usage will increase due to toll rate increase and additional discounts

for SunPass users, and to account for the adoption of technology as well as for the anticipated inter-operability of toll collection systems in surrounding states.

• SunPass participation rate was capped at 85 percent.

Public Comments

 Major comments/inputs

• Discount for frequent users
• Make cash toll even dollar amount
• Increase number of SunPass lanes
• Reduced number of manned booths
• Widen bridge to 4-lanes

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 1

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 1 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 1

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

1

No Toll Increase (Do Nothing) Bridge Cash $3.00 N/A N/A SunPass $2.00 N/A N/A Parkway TBP(B) $1.50 N/A N/A SunPass $1.00 N/A N/A

No Toll Increase Current toll structure Does not meet Targeted Revenue No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 2

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 2 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 2

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

2

Base Case: toll increases in the Series 2011 Official Statement Bridge Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 SunPass $2.00 +$1.00 $3.00 Parkway TBP(B) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass $1.00 +$0.50 $1.50

Operational efficiency - even dollar toll Current Toll Structure Higher tolls for SunPass users No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 3 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

3

Notional toll increases in the Update Letter. Bridge Cash $3.00 +$0.50 $3.50 SunPass $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 Parkway TBP(B) $1.50 +$0.25 $1.75 SunPass $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25

Minimizes toll increase Meets Targeted Revenue Current Toll Structure Inefficient toll collection No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3A

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 3A vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Targeted Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3A

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

3A

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 SunPass $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 Parkway TBP(B) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25

Meets Targeted Revenue Efficient toll collection Current Toll Structure Increased discount for SunPass users No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3B

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 3B vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Targeted Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3B

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

3B

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 SunPass $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 Parkway TBP(B) $1.50 +$0.25 $1.75 SunPass $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25

Meets Targeted Revenue Efficient toll collection Current Toll Structure Increased discount for SunPass users No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 4

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 4 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 4

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

4

Minimal SunPass toll increases Bridge Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 SunPass $2.00 +$0.10 $2.10 Parkway TBP(B) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass $1.00 +$0.05 $1.05

Minimizes SunPass toll increase Current Toll Structure Does not meet Targeted Revenue Inefficient toll collection No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 5

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 5 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 5

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

5

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$0.50 $3.50 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.25 $2.25 Parkway TBP(C) $1.50 +$0.25 $1.75 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.15 $1.15

Minimizes toll increase Frequent user rebate Does not meet Targeted Revenue Inefficient toll collection

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 6

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 6 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 6

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

6

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $2.00 +$1.00 $3.00 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 Parkway TBP(C) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.50 $1.50 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25

Frequent user rebate Efficient toll collection Meets Targeted Revenue Higher tolls

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 6A

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 6A vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Targeted Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 6A

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

6A

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $2.00 +$1.00 $3.00 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.00 $2.00 Parkway TBP(C) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.50 $1.50 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.00 $1.00

No toll increase for frequent SunPass users Frequent user rebate Meets Targeted Revenue Efficient toll collection Higher tolls for non- frequent users

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 6B

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 6B vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Targeted Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 6B

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

6B

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.75 $2.75 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.10 $2.10 Parkway TBP(C) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.35 $1.35 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.05 $1.05

Minimal toll increase for frequent SunPass users Frequent user rebate Meets Targeted Revenue Efficient toll collection

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 7

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 7 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 7

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

7

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.10 $2.10 Parkway TBP(C) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.05 $1.05

Minimal toll increase for frequent SunPass users Frequent user rebate Efficient toll collection Does not meet Targeted Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 8

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 8 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 8

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

8

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$0.75 $3.75 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.10 $2.10 Parkway TBP(C) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.05 $1.05

Minimal toll increase for frequent SunPass users Frequent user rebate Does not meet Targeted Revenue Inefficient toll collection

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 9

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Gross Toll Revenues FY ending September 30

Scenario 9 vs. Targeted Revenue

Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 9

Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll(A) Proposed Toll Increase(A) Proposed Toll(A)

9

Bridge Cash $3.00 +$2.00 $5.00 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $2.00 +$0.00 $2.00 Parkway TBP(C) $1.50 +$1.00 $2.50 SunPass (Infrequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 SunPass (Frequent)(B) $1.00 +$0.00 $1.00

No toll increase for frequent SunPass users Frequent user rebate Efficient toll collection High cash tolls Does not meet Targeted Revenue

Scenarios vs Target Toll Revenue

$20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Gross Toll Revenues Fiscal Year ending September 30

Total Gross Toll Revenue Forecasts vs Targeted Revenue

Original Scenarios

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9 Targeted Revenue

Scenarios vs Target Toll Revenue

$20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Gross Toll Revenues Fiscal Year ending September 30

Mid-Bay Bridge Authority Mid-Bay Bridge and Spence Parkway Total Gross Toll Revenue Forecasts by Toll-Rate Structure Scenario

Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 3A Scenario 3B Scenario 6 Scenario 6A Scenario 6B Targeted Revenue

Summary

Scenario Bridge Parkway Meets Targeted Revenue? Cash SunPass SunPass (Frq) TBP SunPass SunPass (Frq) 2-Tier Scenarios 1 $3.00 $2.00 N/A $1.50 $1.00 N/A No 2 $4.00 $3.00 N/A $2.00 $1.50 N/A Yes 3 $3.50 $2.50 N/A $1.75 $1.25 N/A Yes 3A $4.00 $2.50 N/A $2.00 $1.25 N/A Yes 3B $4.00 $2.50 N/A $1.75 $1.25 N/A Yes 4 $4.00 $2.10 N/A $2.00 $1.05 N/A No 3-Tier Scenarios 5 $3.50 $2.50 $2.25 $1.75 $1.25 $1.15 No 6 $4.00 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.25 Yes 6A $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Yes 6B $4.00 $2.75 $2.10 $2.00 $1.35 $1.05 Yes 7 $4.00 $2.50 $2.10 $2.00 $1.25 $1.05 No 8 $3.75 $2.50 $2.10 $2.00 $1.25 $1.05 No 9 $5.00 $2.50 $2.00 $2.50 $1.25 $1.00 No

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