What is a Meaningful Life? “The purpose of life, after all, is to live it, to taste experience to the utmost, to reach out eagerly and without fear for newer and richer experience.” ‒ Eleanor Roosevelt
What is a Meaningful Life? “Deprived of meaningful work, men and women lose their reason for existence; they go stark, raving mad.” ‒ Fyodor Dostoevsky
P= Σ Ft i *( Σ HC i + Σ SC i + Σ RA i ) P = Prosperity Ft = Financial Technology HC = Human Capital SC = Social Capital RA = Real Assets
P= Σ Ft i *( Σ HC i + Σ SC i + Σ RA i ) Financial Human Social Real Technology Capital Capital Assets Rule of law Cash Innovative processes & Productivity: components including: Skills Property rights Receivables Public health Real estate Convertible bonds Education Universal education Factories Preferred stock Training Religious freedom Capital High-yield bonds Experience Police/fire protection equipment Collateralized loans Creativity Collateralized bonds Habits Cultural resources Roads Universal suffrage Buildings Equity -linked Values Protection of creditors Infrastructure securities Health Rigorous financial Securitized obligations reporting standards (mortgages, credit cards, etc.) Transparent markets Regulatory continuity Derivatives
Financial Technologies • Collateralized loan obligations • Collateralized bond obligations • Securitized mortgages • Securitized credit cards • Derivatives • Convertible bonds • Preferred stock • High-yield bonds
America Goes to Work U.S. and Fortune 500 Employment 180 U.S. = + 62 million jobs 160 New financial technologies are fully implemented 140 120 100 Modern capital 80 markets begin Fortune 500 = minus 4 million 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters.
U.S. small businesses represent … Almost 50% of private U.S. GDP 99.7% of all employers 48% of private-sector workers 58% of high-tech workers 1.9 million of net new jobs $3.3 trillion+ in annual payroll Source: Small Business Administration (Statistics of U.S. Businesses/2015); U.S. Census; US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The 21 st century is being defined by a worldwide competition for human capital.
Human capital is the largest asset class.
Human Capital Gary Becker, 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics “To most of you, capital means a bank account, stock certificates or factories. “I’m talking about a different kind of capital. Schooling, a computer training course, expenditures on medical care and lectures on the virtues of punctuality and honesty are capital too.”
Three Ways to Build Human Capital Immigration Health Education
“They’re taking our jobs.” European immigrants Chinese railroad workers Black migration to the north Mexican “braceros” Vietnamese shrimpers Today
Immigrants Seek Strong Social Capital Throughout history, people have sought to live in nations that provide the freedoms that come with vibrant social capital – especially the Rule of Law. In the 19 th century, 50 million Europeans emigrated to America.
Where U.S. Immigrants Were Born 1960 Today Europe Canada 12% Europe Other 2% Other 1% 75% 5% Asia 5% Latin America 9% Asia 28% Latin Canada America 10% 54% Sources: Migration Policy Institute, U.S. Census, United Nations Population Division, 2015 Note: 2015 figures sum to 101% due to rounding.
60% of Chinese people with assets exceeding $1.6 million are thinking about emigrating to the U.S. or Europe. Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security (WSJ 2/22/12 “ Plan B for China ’ s Wealthy: Moving to the U.S./Europe)
Immigration Facts 35% of all U.S. Nobel Prize winners are immigrants. 83% of finalists in the 2016 Intel Science Talent search were children of immigrants. 40% of Fortune 500 company founders were immigrants or children of immigrants. Immigrants start businesses at twice the rate of other Americans. Incarceration rate of immigrants is nearly half of U.S. citizens. Without immigrants, the U.S. has had no population growth since 1970. Sources: Bret Stephens, New York Times, Four Questions About American Greatness , Dec. 7, 2017
Immigrant Inventors Foreign -born scientists in the U.S. are listed among the inventors on… More than five out of six information-technology patents Almost eight out of 10 pharmaceutical drug patents Three out of four patents in molecular biology and microbiology. Sources: Partnership for a New American Economy
The Value of Health Each life is priceless… but in economic terms, over the past two centuries, as much as 50% of all economic growth can be traced to advances in health.
Worldwide Life Expectancy Four million years 118 years 72 produced an 11-year produced a 41- increase from 20 to 31. year increase. 31 1900 2018 James Carey: Longevity; United Nations Development Program
Some Major Diseases Now Mostly Controlled Chicken pox Pneumococcal disease Diphtheria Polio H. influenza -caused Tetanus invasive diseases Typhoid fever Measles Yellow fever Pertussis Smallpox Source: Discovery Fit & Health
What caused the increase? Vastly improved sanitation Development of antibiotics Implementation of vaccines Progress against heart disease Investment in bioscience research
We have entered a new Age of Medicine. Immunology Precision medicine Genomics Powerful diagnostic tools
Pathologist vs. Computer Two highly skilled pathologists assessing the same slide will agree only about 60% of the time. Machine-learning predicted patient survival times better than the standard practice of pathologists. Source: Stanford University School of Medicine
ROI of Young Investigators Percentage of Epilepsy MFF Grant Researchers Still Active 100% 75% 7% Late-Stage Mid-Level Young Investigator Career Awards Career Awards Awards Source: Philanthropy Advisory Service, Milken Institute
Impact of PCF Young Investigators 10 FDA -approved treatments for prostate cancer since 2010. Provenge: stimulates tumor immunity Xgeva: improves quality of life by reducing side effects Jevtana: chemotherapy that kills prostate cancer cells Zytiga: reduces testosterone, resulting in longer life Xtandi: blocks testosterone’s cancer targets and prolongs life Xofigo: results in less medication to control bone pain Erleada: treatment for those who fail testosterone reduction Zytiga + Prednisone: delays cancer progression by 18 months Pembrolizumab: precision immunotherapy for solid tumors Xtandi: secondary approval for non- metastatic CRPC
Return on Human Capital Investment Preschool Programs Return School Job Training Age Source: James Heckman, University of Chicago
“ By age 5, it is possible to predict with depressing accuracy who will complete high school and who won’t. ” James Heckman Nobel Prize in Economics Source: New York Times – July 29, 2008
Do human capital strategies work? Per Capita GDP Singapore 1960 2017 $2,271 $51,431 Jamaica $2,255 $5,017 Source: IMF Outlook (9/28/17).
Beverly Hills High School Canada 46 th percentile in math 87.7 % rank “proficient” or above in math. students Singapore 34 th percentile in math Sources: City-Data.com / Global Report Card (Jay Greene and Josh McGee)
University-Community Outreach Program ( (UCOP) Program at Berkeley, Columbia, USC and Wharton designed to create productive partnerships within their communities. Mentoring Scholarships Young Entrepreneurs Tutoring Community workshops Assistance to local businesses
Trends Shaping the World Demographics
Dependency Ratios Japan Number of Germany people 65 and Italy over as a Sweden percentage of Spain the labor Poland force United States Russia WORLD China India 0 20 40 60 80 2050 2010 Source: Economist, European Commission
T HERE WILL BE 1 BILLION PEOPLE WORLDWIDE OVER THE AGE OF 60 NEXT YEAR AND MORE THAN 2 BILLION BY 2050 Source: The United Nations.
G LOBAL PORTION OF THE POPULATION 60+ Sources: UNDESA Population Division, HelpAge.
U.S. POPULATION 65+ ( IN MILLIONS ) 100 92 90 79.7 80 70 56 60 50 43.1 40 35 30 25.5 16.6 20 9 10 4.9 3.1 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2012 2020 2040 2060 Sources: United States Census Bureau, United States Department of Health and Human Services.
Spending power of 60+ global consumers will be $15 trillion + by 2020 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
83 percent of US household wealth is held by people 50+ Source: AARP.
7 in 10 70% OF PEOPLE AGE 65+ WILL NEED LONG - TERM CARE Source: The Scan Foundation.
U.S. Birth Rates Per 1,000 Women Early 1950s: 200 Today: 60
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