THE NAVIES IN THE 21 ST CENTURY By DR M. VEGO; JMO DEPARTMENT, U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE, NEWPORT, RI., USA ROYAL HIGH INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE, BRUSSELS; 21 NOVEMBER 2011
“ THE ONLY WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO HAVE POWER TO SHAPE THE FUTURE.” “IN A TIME OF DRASTIC CHANGE IT IS THE LEARNERS WHO INHERIT THE FUTURE. THE LEARNED USUALLY FIND THEMSELVES EQUIPPED TO LIVE IN A WORLD THAT NO LONGER EXIST.” ERIC HOFFER (1902-1983)
THE FUTURE GLOBAL STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM • CONTEMPORARY • EMERGING POWERS POWERS BRAZIL UNITED STATES IRAN EUROPEAN UNION TURKEY RUSSIAN FEDERATION JAPAN • RISING POWERS PEOPLE‘S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC) INDIA
CONTEMPORARY POWERS • UNITED STATES • EUROPEAN UNION (EU) • RUSSIAN FEDERATION • JAPAN
RISING POWERS • PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC) • INDIA
EMERGING POWERS • BRAZIL • IRAN • TURKEY
PIVOTAL REGIONS • GREATER MIDDLE EAST • SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA • KOREAN PENINSULA • THE POLAR AREA—THE ARCTIC IN PARTICULAR.
MARITIME DOMAIN AND ITS DIMENSIONS • PHYSICAL • MILITARY • POLITICAL • LEGAL • SOCIAL • ENVIRONMENTAL • DEMOGRAPHIC • OTHER • ECONOMIC
PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT
DEMOGRAPHIC DIMENSION
ECONOMIC DIMENSION
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE 1969-2010
Top 20 largest shipping flags (October 2010)
LEGAL DIMENSION
Source: DCDC (Development, Concepts and Doctrine), Strategic Trends Programme, global Strategic Trends-Out to 2040 (London: Ministry of Defence, 4th ed., 12 January 2010), p. 67.
Source: DCDC (Development, Concepts and Doctrine), Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends-Out to 2040 (London: Ministry of Defence, 4th ed., 12 January 2010), p. 63.
MILITARY DIMENSION • SOME 150 NAVIES WORLDWIDE • RELATIVE DECLINE OF THE U.S. NAVY • CHANGING NAVAL BALANCE IN WESTERN PACIFIC • RISE OF PRC‘S NAVY (PLAN) • RISE OF THE INDIAN AND THE BRAZILIAN NAVIES.
CHINESE NAVAL CHALLENGE
CHINESE EX-SOVIET AIRCRAFT CARRIER VARYAG
PLAN‘S SOVREMENNY -CLASS MISSILE DESTROYER
PLAN‘S KILO -CLASS SSK
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF CONFLICT/WAR • ATTEMPTS BY THE RISING POWERS TO IMPOSE THEIR POLITICAL/ECONOMIC INFLUENCE ON THE WEAKER NEIGHBOURS • VIRULENT NATIONALISM • RELIGIOUS –BASED TOTALITARIAN IDEOLOGIES LAND/MARITIME BORDER DISPUTES • • STRUGGLE TO CONTROL SCARCE WATER RESOURCES • COMPETITION OF MAJOR POWERS FOR RELIABLE SUPPLY OF OIL/NATURAL GAS AND MINERALS • OVERPOPULATION • GLOBAL WAR IS UNLIKELY BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE POSSIBILITY OF A REGIONAL HIGH-INTENSITY CONVENTIOINAL • WAR EXISTS • FLASHPOINTS– KOREAN PENINSULA; TAIWAN STRAIT; SOUTH CHINA SEA; PERSIAN (ARABIAN) GULF; EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN.
THREATS IN MARITIME DOMAIN
ROLE AND IMPORTANCE OF THE NAVIES
ROUTINE ACTIVITIES • ENFORCING MARITIME BORDER LAWS & CUSTOMS • VESSEL TRAFFIC SERVICE • SEARCH & RESCUE • SALVAGE • ORDNANCE DISPOSAL • HYDROGRAPHIC SURVEY • OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
PROTECTION OF THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC INTERESTS AT SEA • PROTECTION OF COMMERCIAL SHIPPING • FISHERY PROTECTION • PROTECTION OF OFFSHORE OIL/GAS INSTALLATIONS • PROTECTION OF SEABED MINERAL DEPOSITS
PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE / DISASTER RELIEF (HA /DR) • ASSISTANCE IN THE AFTERMATH OF NATURAL DISASTERS • EMERGENCY MEDICAL ASSISTANCE • GOODWILL ACTIVITIES • REFUGEE ASSISTANCE • EVACUATION OF CIVILIANS
6 Jan 2005--US Navy personnel from the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln load food, water, and other supplies onto a US Navy Seahawk helicopter at Banda Aceh.
HOMELAND SECURITY • SEA-BASED BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE (BMD)COMBATING TERRORISM • PORT SECURITY • PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INSTALLATIONS/FACILITIES ON THE COAST • COUNTER NARCOTICS (DRUGS) • COUNTER ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION • COUNTER SMUGGLING OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD) • COMBATING PIRACY • COUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
ENFORCEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TREATIES • COMBATING TRANSNATIONAL MARITIME TERRORISM • ENFORCEMENT OF UNSCR’S RESOLUTIONS • COMBATING INTERNATIONAL PIRACY • ENSURING FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION/OVERFLIGHT • COMBATING ILLICIT ARMS TRADE • COUNTER PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD) • PREVENTING ILLICIT SMUGGLING OF HUMANS
COMBATING TRANSNATIONAL MARITIME TERRORISM
COMBATING INTERNATIONAL PIRACY
COMBATING PROLIFERATION OF WMD
PREVENTING ILLICIT SMUGGLING OF HUMANS
ENSURING FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION AND OVERFLIGHT
SUPPORT OF THE COUNTRY‘S FOREIGN POLICY
NAVAL POTENTIAL VS. NAVAL INFLUENCE
• COOPERATIVE NAVAL DIPLOMACY • COERCIVE (OR “GUNBOAT”) NAVAL DIPLOMACY • CONFLICT PREVENTION • SETTLING MARITIME BORDER DISPUTES
COOPERATIVE NAVAL DIPLOMACY • ROUTINE NAVAL PRESENCE • OPERATIONAL DEPLOYMENTS • EXERCISES/MANEUVERS • PORT VISITS ROUTINE OPERATIONAL DIPLOMATIC • SHOW OF FLAG
COERCIVE NAVAL DIPLOMACY • THREAT OF USING FORCE • SHOW OF FORCE • PREEMPTIVE DEPLOYMENT • NAVAL DEMONSTRATION • RAIDS • BOMBARDMENTS OF THE COAST
EMPLOYMENT OF NAVAL FORCES IN CONFLICT PREVENTION
EMPLOYMENT OF NAVAL FORCES IN SETTLING MARITIME BORDER DISPUTES
SUPPORT OF MILITARY- /THEATER STRATEGY • SEA-BASED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE • CONVENTIONAL DETERRENCE • BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE • SECURITY COOPERATION
SUPPORT OF INSURGENCY OR COUNTERINSURGENCY (COIN)
SUPPORT OF PEACE OPERATIONS • PEACE-KEEPING OPERATIONS (PKO) • PEACE-ENFORCEMENT OPERATIONS (PEO) • EXPANDED PKO/PEO • PEACE-BUILDING (PB) • PEACE-MAKING
Employment of Naval Forces in Support of Peace Operations Type Conflict Peace Keeping Peace Enforcement Peace Building (PB) Peace Making Operations (PKO) Operations (PEO) Prevention Support of non-military •Monitoring / facilitating Use of military force or Support of non-military Support of actions aimed Objectives actions aimed to prevent implementation of the threat of its use to compel efforts aimed to to end a dispute and occurrence, escalation, agreement to cease compliance with strengthen / rebuild resolve the underlying conflict, and its hostilities resolutions / sanctions governmental causes that led to it resumption designed to maintain / infrastructure and •Support diplomatic restore peace / order institutions in order to efforts to reach long-term avoid resumption of settlement hostilities UN Charter, Chapter VI UN Charter, Chapter VII Legal Basis Only in self-defense Prepared for combat Use of Force •Provide early warning •Coastal surveillance / •Threat of use of •Supervise cease-fire or Tasks patrolling maritime forces truce •Coastal surveillance / •Harbor defense / protection patrolling •Blockade •Protection of •Escort of merchant shipping humanitarian aid and •Preventative •Shore bombardment •Maritime intercept delivery Deployment •Amphibious landings operations (MIO) •Secure bases for friendly •Sanctions / embargoes •Raids •Protection of shore facilities land forces / installations • Logistical support for •Support withdrawal of friendly forces ashore •Protection of offshore oil / friendly land forces gas facilities • Logistical support for •Defensive mining friendly forces ashore •Mine countermeasures (MCM) •Monitor / enforce / EEZ •Sea search and rescue •Port visits •Providing neutral site for negotiations •Logistical support for friendly forces ashore
MULTINATIONAL TASK FORCE (MTF) OF THE UN INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON (UNIFIL) 48 NM 5,000 SQ NM
THE NAVIES AND HIGH-INTENSITY CONVENTIONAL WAR
NATURE OF WAR • REFERS TO THOSE CONSTANT, UNIVERSAL, AND INHERENT QUALITIES THAT ULTIMATELY DEFINE WAR THROUGHOUT THE AGES • THE NATURE OF WAR NEVER CHANGES—IT IS TIMELESS.
NATURE OF WAR AND ITS MAIN FEATURES: • UNPREDICTABILITY • DOMINANT ROLE OF POLICY AND • UNCERTAINTY (“FOG STRATEGY OF WAR”) • VIOLENCE • FRICTION • HOSTILITY/HATRED • FEAR • BLOODSHED • DANGER • SUFFERING • ACCIDENTS • IRRATIONALITY • CHANCE • LUCK
CHARACTER OF WAR • CHARACTER OF WAR REFERS TO THOSE TRANSITORY, CIRCUMSTANTIAL, AND ADAPTIVE FEATURES THAT ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF WARFARE THROUGHOUT HISTORY • IN CONTRAST TO ITS NATURE, THE CHARACTER OF WAR IS EVER- CHANGING.
CHARACTER OF WAR AT SEA IS AFFECTED BY: DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE ADVANCES IN SCIENCE & • • INTERNATIONAL SECURITY TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENT • INFLUENCE OF NAVAL • DOMESTIC POLITICS THEORETICIANS • ECONOMIC CONDITIONS • CHANGES IN THE CHARACTER OF WAR ON • DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES LAND IDEOLOGY • • INTERNATIONAL LAW OF MEDIA/PUBLIC OPINION • THE ARMED CONFLICT
DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT • FRENCH REVOLUTIONARY WARS (1792- 1802) AND NAPOLEONIC WARS (1803- 1815) • WORLD WAR I • WORLD WAR II • COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION IN 1991 • THE RISE OF PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC).
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