Technology Insertion/Infusion CALCE Electronic Products and Systems - - PDF document

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Technology Insertion/Infusion CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion Design Refreshes Rarely will a design refresh just replace an obsolete part. Usually, if a design refresh is to

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Technology Insertion/Infusion

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Rarely will a design refresh just replace an obsolete part. Usually, if a design refresh is to be undertaken, the

  • pportunity will be used to upgrade the system using:
  • Newer parts
  • High reliability parts
  • Increased functionality
  • Increased memory
  • Increased performance
  • Reduce system size and weight
  • Reduce power requirements
  • Improve maintainability and reliability
  • Reduce cost of acquisition and life cycle support

Design Refreshes

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

  • When: When to insert a technology is a crucial parameter in

determining the cost effects. Cost effects vary greatly with the programmatic variables of the system, i.e., budget availability. Roadmapping of technology availability is also necessary.

  • Why: A comparative quantification of technologies being considered

can enable decision makers to maximize “value” (value = economic, performance, requirement satisfaction).

  • Who: People involved in technology insertion analysis include the

decision maker (normally program manager), engineers, cost analysts and the customer

  • How Much: Once we have assigned a “value” to the technology

insertion, we want to be able to assess how much it cost allowing the customer to determine if the extra value of inserting the cost is worth the extra cost.

What We Want to Know About Technology Insertion

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion Beginning of availability Availability Calendar Time End of availability

  • Roadmapping forecasts the beginning of availability

(maturity) of technology

  • Obsolescence forecasting focuses on the backend of the

technology wave

  • What is your risk threshold?

Technology Availability

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Technology Forecasting Methods

Time Units shipped/Market ($)

Maturity Growth Decline Introduction Phase-out Discontinuance

Time Units shipped/Market ($)

Maturity Growth Decline Introduction Phase-out Discontinuance

  • Expert Opinion
  • Technology Trend Analysis

(Pearl-Reed & Gompertz)

  • Delphi Technique
  • Fisher-Pry Substitution
  • Nominal Group Technique
  • Scenarios
  • Morphological Analysis
  • Relevance Trees
  • Impact Wheel
  • Patent Analysis
  • Data Mining
  • On-Line Analytical Processing

There are many technology forecasting methods (most focused on predicting introduction/maturity), but the challenge is relating the two extremes (beginning of availability and end of availability).

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Cost Considerations

(Current Technology Comparison to Future Technology)

  • Cost historical data for current technology
  • Cost of keeping the old technology in the field (maintain)
  • Technical considerations for current technology and future technology

– Engineering effort

  • Engineering difficulty
  • New design effort

– Technology indices – Design integration – Time (technology year)

  • Maturity level
  • Improvements in methods and processes

– Technology trend – Year to insert technology – Quantity

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Average Annual Rate of Technology Change

Darryl Webb – Price Systems, LLC Mx versus IOC- Fighter/Attack AC y = 0.0503x + 3.5424 R2 = 0.8918 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 20 40 60 80 100 120 IOC-1900 Mx

Year of Initial Operational Capability (IOC) - 1900 Manufacturing Producibility (Mx)

Fighter/Attack Aircraft

M x vs I O C y = 0. 0349x + 3. 9291 R

2

= 0. 8103

  • 4. 00
  • 4. 50
  • 5. 00
  • 5. 50
  • 6. 00
  • 6. 50
  • 7. 00
  • 7. 50
  • 8. 00

20 40 60 80 100 120 I O C

Year of Initial Operational Capability - 1900 Manufacturing Producibility (Mx) Military Transport Aircraft M x vs I O C y = 0. 0349x + 3. 9291 R

2

= 0. 8103

  • 4. 00
  • 4. 50
  • 5. 00
  • 5. 50
  • 6. 00
  • 6. 50
  • 7. 00
  • 7. 50
  • 8. 00

20 40 60 80 100 120 I O C

Year of Initial Operational Capability - 1900 Manufacturing Producibility (Mx) Military Transport Aircraft

Manufacturing Producibility (Mx) measures recurring cost impact of materials, fabrication, assembly, and inspection

Components, subsystems and systems follow the same patterns.

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Battery Performance Example

Most component technologies historically have maintained consistent improvement rates in Performance (batteries: cycles) Efficiency (batteries; watt-hours per kilogram) Physical characteristics (batteries;: mass, density,

and volume)

Technological cycle time is consistent and driven by: Application Competition Demand Subsidiary industries (infrastructure)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year of Initial Operational Capability Total cycles

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year of Initial Operational Capability Efficiency (Wh/kg)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year of Initial Operational Capability Mass

Ni Cad Ni H2 Li Ion Ni Cad Ni H2 Li Ion Ni Cad Ni H2 Li Ion

Darryl Webb – Price Systems, LLC

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Disruptive technology innovations are accounted for here. Many of the data points on the previous two slides were viewed as a disruptive technologies.

Time Performance Metric Trend for a particular evolving family of technology Trend for a history of all families of technologies Disruptive Technology

Disruptive Technologies

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Cost Life Cycle of a Technology

0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200 10 20 30 40 50 Year Relative Cost per Unit

  • Initial part of the curve; high

cost due to low producibility, small production runs and limited sources

  • Center portion of the curve;

low cost due to mature manufacturing processes, high yields and multiple sources

  • Latter part of the curve;

increase in cost due to

  • utdated processes, low

procurement quantities and limited sources (and decreasing profitability to the technology supplier)

  • Depth of curve a function of

market size and number of applications State-of-the-practice State-of-the-art Obsolete

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Technology Generations

(Cost)

  • Three generations of

battery technology

  • Initial high peaks of each

generation caused by subcontractor processes maturity costs, prime contractor design integration costs and low producibility

  • When obsolete for

several generations, cost is higher than current technologies of much greater performance

Generations of Technology

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Time Cost Ni Cad NiH2 Li Ion

When should you make the jump from one technology to the next?

Commercial product Military product

Darryl Webb – Price Systems, LLC

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Technology Generations

(Performance)

  • “Performance” is a

technology-specific metric constructed from a combination of the operational, functional, and reliability requirements placed on the system by the customer

Performance Trend

Time Performance

Cycles) Total , Mass 1 y, (Efficienc f e Performanc =

For the battery example:

Ni Cad Ni H2 Li Ion

Darryl Webb – Price Systems, LLC

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Technology Generations

(Best Value)

Cost ity e/Reliabil Performanc Value =

Technology Benefit

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71

Time Value

Ni Cad Ni H2 Li Ion

Technology Benefit

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71

Time Value

Ni Cad Ni H2 Li Ion

Darryl Webb – Price Systems, LLC

  • Technology benefit

analysis provides the benefits divided by the cost over time.

  • It considers direct benefits

(performance and reliability) and indirect benefits (reductions in weight and power requirements).

  • A cost effectiveness study analytically assesses the comparative worth
  • f alternatives for achieving a designated goal through the joint

consideration of costs, time, technical performance, and limitations inherent in other cost related studies.

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Utilization of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques

  • AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) is a multi-criteria decision analysis

methodology that involves choosing from a number of alternatives based on how well those alternatives rate against chosen criteria. The criteria are weighted in terms of importance to the decision maker, and the overall "score" of an alternative is the weighted sum of its rating against each criteria.

  • SMART (Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique) is another multi-criteria

analysis approach. In SMART, ratings of alternatives are assigned directly, in the natural scales of the criteria. SMART is more appropriate to use if new alternatives are likely to be added to the model later.

  • The decision analysis must be performed within an environment that includes

all the major stack-holders (customer, prime contractor, OEM community)

  • Example commercial tools:

– Expert Choice Professional implements AHP. The company also offers Team Expert Choice which is suitable for team decisionmaking. (www.expertchoice.com) – Criterium DecisionPlus implements AHP and SMART. (www.halcyon.com/infoharv) – Logical Decisions implements not only AHP and SMART but also includes Tradeoff and

  • SMARTER. (www.logicaldecisions.com).

– RADSS Resource Allocation Decision Support System (www.tasc.com)

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Forecasting Obsolescence of Future Technologies

Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Phase Out 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

TTL STTL LSTTL CMOS ALS AS HCT FAST ACT FCT BCT ABT LVT

Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Phase Out 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

TTL STTL LSTTL CMOS ALS AS HCT FAST ACT FCT BCT ABT LVT y = 1.2788x - 562.89 y = 0.5041x + 997.08 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Peak Sales Year Year

Introduction Phase-out

Note, the time between introduction and phase-out is becoming smaller

y = 0.5041x + 997.08 y = 1.2788x - 562.89

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

y = 1.2788x - 562.89 y = 0.5041x + 997.08 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Peak Sales Year Year

Forecasting Obsolescence of Future Technologies - Example

3 i 0.5041(2005)+997.08– 1.2788(2005)+562.89 =6.7 L 2005 (the year you project replacing the part) B where, = = =

( )

4 1 i 1 L B date ce Obsolescen       − − + = = 2008.4

2.5 5 7.5 10

M a t u r i t y P h a s e

  • u

t I n t r

  • d

u c t i

  • n

D e c l i n e G r

  • w

t h

y = 0.5041x + 997.08 y = 1.2788x - 562.89

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Another Example

Adapted and compiled from: Sandia National Laboratories, 1999, Electronic News Online, and Semiconductor Business News Online

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Minimum Feature Size (microns)

Note, the time between introduction and phase-out is approaching a constant

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Technology Forecasting Observations

  • Regression of all performance data not recommended

– Typical regression of all data represents central economic utility

  • nly

– Trend technology leaders – Trend obsolescence – Watch for changes in balance of technology, size and quantity – Recognize that leader trend forecasts points to step function increases (cycle increases)

  • Performance trends are remarkably stable over time
  • Product relies upon subsidiary technology development
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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

MOCA Functional Upgrade Strategy

Functional Upgrade Refresh Event No Criteria: 1) User preference 2) Optimization decision Yes Part-for-part replacement of

  • bsolete parts only
  • New BOM (new obs. dates for new parts)
  • New software
  • New system characteristics

Derived trends in: Manufacturing producibility (Mx) and other factors

Price H/HL

Recalibration

  • f life cycle

cost models What portion of the BOM: a) Unchanged (no obs. problem or upgrade) b) One-for-one replacement c) One-for-multiple replacement

Compute Cost of Refresh Event

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Accommodating Technology Insertions in Product Design

Technology refreshment is inevitable, whether due to electronic part obsolescence, or changing customer requirements, or both, it will happen. How does a product accommodate technology insertions in an economically viable way?

– Synchronize technology insertions with technology refreshments (save on re-testing) – Provide “opening” for functional growth to affordably fit into the “unchanged architecture” – Continuous evolution required

  • To avoid system obsolescence
  • To keep pace with prevailing standards
  • To enable technology insertion and functional enhancement
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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Development Production Sustainment User Capabilities

Note: JSF is planned to have approximately one decade

  • f initial development, two decades of production, and

three decades of support after that

(Butch Ardis, ASC/EN, WPAFB)

Traditional Program Plan Example

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Development Production Sustainment User Capabilities

(Butch Ardis, ASC/EN, WPAFB)

Customer Desired Operational Capability Updates

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion Capabilities Development Production Sustainment DMS &Tech. Insertion (Butch Ardis, ASC/EN, WPAFB)

Continuous Technology Insertion View

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Avionics Viability

(Butch Ardis, ASC/EN, WPAFB)

Avionics Viability is a metric for the ability to support both the system’s current and future affordability and capability needs

– Avionics Viability includes (over the life of the system) avionics producibility, supportability, and the ability to grow to meet operational capability needs – Avionics Viability includes hardware, software, and verification as well as their support environments – Avionics Viability is driven by a combination of architecture, process, and business attributes – Avionics (aviation electronics) includes prime equipment, support systems, training systems, production systems, test systems, ….

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

For the projected life cycle of the weapon system:

Producibility - Ability to produce the Sub-System in the future based upon

the “current” architecture and design implementation. (Production & Initial Spares, not replenishment Spares)

Supportability - Ability to sustain the Sub-System and meet the required

Mission Capable rates. This includes repair and resupply as well as non- recurring redesign for supportability of the “as is” design implementation and performance.

Future Requirements Growth - Ability of the Sub-system to support

projected Combat Capability Requirements with the “current” design and avionics architecture. This includes capability implemented by software updates.

(Butch Ardis, ASC/EN, WPAFB)

Viability Assessment Areas

Viability is a metric for sustainment

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Smart Roadmapping

(Roadmapping in Both Ends of the Wave)

Beginning of availability Availability Calendar Time End of availability

  • When should you jump into a new technology
  • When should you phase out an old technology
  • “Based on total cost of ownership”, “best value” and

visibility into your customer’s platform roadmaps

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

The Need for “Smart” Roadmapping

  • Cost models (and value models) embedded in the

roadmap to allow execution of application-specific “what-if” scenarios.

  • Develop and execute integrated change roadmaps that

leverage commercial technologies and affordable open avionics architectures using evolutionary acquisition principles

CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Integrated Change Roadmap

(Butch Ardis, ASC/EN, WPAFB)

  • Integrates development, verification, production,

support, and future capability needs into single strategy

  • Developed by each program for life of program
  • Used to set context for developing program plans

and long range architecture requirements

  • Viability of proposed solution evaluated against

integrated change roadmap

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CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center University of Maryland Obsolescence/Technology Insertion

Major Electronic Industry Roadmaps and their Direct Application to Avionics

  • The three major electronics industry roadmaps are

– The Semiconductor Industries Association (SIA) roadmap – The National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative Inc., (NEMI) roadmap – The Institute for Interconnecting and Packaging Electronic Circuits (IPC) roadmap

  • The SIA, NEMI, and IPC roadmaps direct application to

avionics lies in the fact that a segment of these roadmaps forecast technology requirements for the electronic products that operate in harsh environments such as a temperature range of -55°C to 125°C.