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Nov 10, 2023 590 likes •833 views

trt t t sts ss t r rt rts

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SLIDE 1

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❙♣❛t✐❛❧ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡✿ ♣♦❧✐❝② ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ❢r♦♠ ❛ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❛❣❡♥t ♠♦❞❡❧

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✶✱ ❍❡r❜❡rt ❉❛✇✐❞✶✱ ❛♥❞ ▼✐❝❤❛❡❧ ◆❡✉❣❛rt✷

✶❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ✷❚❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❉❛r♠st❛❞t

✶✶✳ ❙❡♣t❡♠❜❡r ✷✵✶✷

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶

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SLIDE 2

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

✶

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥

✷

❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧

✸

❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧

✹

❘❡s✉❧ts ❇❛s❡ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❍❈ P♦❧✐❝② ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

✺

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✷

slide-3
SLIDE 3

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

❋r♦♠✿ ❘❡♣♦rt ♦❢ t❤❡ ❊✉r♦♣❡❛♥ ❈♦♠♠✐ss✐♦♥✳

❊✉r♦♣❡❛♥ ❯♥✐♦♥ → ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r✐♥❣ ♣❡r✲❝❛♣✐t❛ ●❉P✳ ❋❛❝✐❧✐t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣❡r✲❝❛♣✐t❛ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐✈✐t② ❛♠♦♥❣ ❊✉r♦♣❡❛♥ r❡❣✐♦♥s ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ❣♦❛❧s ♦❢ ❊❯ ✭❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝✮ ♣♦❧✐❝②✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✸

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SLIDE 4

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

P♦❧✐❝✐❡s

❆❜♦✉t ✵✳✹ ✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ t♦t❛❧ ●❉P ♦❢ t❤❡ ❊❯ ✐s s♣❡♥t ❢♦r ❝♦❤❡s✐♦♥ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s✳ ✷ ♠❛✐♥ ♣♦❧✐❝② ✐♥str✉♠❡♥ts✿

❊✉r♦♣❡❛♥ ❘❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ❉❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ❋✉♥❞ ❊❘❉❋ ✭❊✉r♦ ✷✵✶ ❜♥✱ ✷✵✵✼✲✷✵✶✸✮

❉✐r❡❝t ❛✐❞ t♦ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥ts ✐♥ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ■♥❢r❛str✉❝t✉r❡ ❧✐♥❦❡❞ ♥♦t❛❜❧② t♦ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❛♥❞ ✐♥♥♦✈❛t✐♦♥ ✳✳✳

❊✉r♦♣❡❛♥ ❙♦❝✐❛❧ ❋✉♥❞ ✭❊✉r♦ ✼✻ ❜♥✱ ✷✵✵✼✲✷✵✶✸✮

❙tr❡♥❣t❤❡♥✐♥❣ ❤✉♠❛♥ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❆❞❛♣t✐♥❣ ✇♦r❦❡rs ❛♥❞ ❡♥t❡r♣r✐s❡s ✳✳✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✹

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SLIDE 5

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥s

❉♦ t❤❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ✐♥❞❡❡❞ ❢♦st❡r ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ ♦✉t♣✉t✴ ♦✉t♣✉t ❣r♦✇t❤✴ t❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣②❄ ❍♦✇ ❛r❡ t❤❡ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❡✛❡❝ts ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② ❧❛❜♦r ♠♦❜✐❧✐t②❄ ✭❉♦❡s t✐♠✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ s❡q✉❡♥❝✐♥❣ ♦❢ ♣♦❧✐❝② ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❤❛✈❡ ❛♥ ❡✛❡❝t❄✮ ✭■s t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s q✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❡❧② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❢r♦♠ ✐s♦❧❛t❡❞ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥❄✮

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✺

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SLIDE 6

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❚❤❡ ❊✉r❛❝❡❅❯♥✐❜✐ ▼♦❞❡❧

❈❧♦s❡❞ ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❆❣❡♥t✲❇❛s❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ s✉❜st❛♥t✐❛❧❧② ❡①t❡♥❞✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❊❯✲❢✉♥❞❡❞ ♣r♦❥❡❝t ❊❯❘❆❈❊ ✭✷✵✵✻✲✷✵✵✾✮✳ ❖✈❡r❛❧❧ ❖❜❥❡❝t✐✈❡✿ ❉❡✈❡❧♦♣ ❛♥ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ s✐♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♣❧❛t❢♦r♠ t❤❛t ✐s s✉✐t❛❜❧❡ ❢♦r ✭♠❛❝r♦✮❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡✈❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ♣♦❧✐❝② ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✻

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SLIDE 7

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

Households CG Firms

Labor Market (search & matching) Cons. Good Market (local malls)

Employee Consumer Employer Producer

Agent

Decisions labor demand wage schedule labor supply

  • reserv. wage

cgood demand

  • cons. choice

cgood supply posted prices Buyer Capital Good Market

IG Firm

Producer igood demand vintage choice igood supply vintage menu posted prices

Agent Interaction/Exchange Banks Government

Financial Market Credit Market

ECB

Decisions

Policy Measures

Innovation P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✼

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SLIDE 8

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

Pr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❈♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ●♦♦❞s

❈♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❣♦♦❞s ❛r❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ✭✈✐♥t❛❣❡ str✉❝t✉r❡❞✮ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❜♦r✳ ❈♦♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛r✐t② ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❣♦♦❞s ❛♥❞ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ s♣❡❝✐✜❝ s❦✐❧❧s ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡rs✳ ❉✐st✐♥❝t✐♦♥ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❛♥❞ s♣❡❝✐✜❝ s❦✐❧❧s✳ ■❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ st♦❝❦ ✐s ♥♦t ❢✉❧❧② ✉s❡❞✱ ♦❧❞❡st ✈✐♥t❛❣❡s ❛r❡ ♠❛❞❡ ✐♥❛❝t✐✈❡ ✜rst✳ ❆❝t✉❛❧ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐✈✐t② ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ✈✐♥t❛❣❡ ✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ✭♠✐♥✐♠✉♠ ♦❢ t❤❡✮ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ ✈✐♥t❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ s❦✐❧❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜r♠✬s ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❡s✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✽

slide-9
SLIDE 9

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❚❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❈❤❛♥❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❉✐✛✉s✐♦♥

■♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❣♦♦❞ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡r ✭■●P✮ ♦✛❡rs ❛ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❣♦♦❞s ✇✐t❤ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t q✉❛❧✐t② ✭✈✐♥t❛❣❡s✮✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛r❡ s✉♣♣❧✐❡❞ ❛t ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t✐❛t❡❞ ♣r✐❝❡s✳ ◆❡✇ ✈✐♥t❛❣❡s ✇✐t❤ ✐♠♣r♦✈❡❞ q✉❛❧✐t② ❛r❡ ❛❞❞❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝t r❛♥❣❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ st♦❝❤❛st✐❝ ✐♥♥♦✈❛t✐♦♥ ❝②❝❧❡s✳ ❉✐✛✉s✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♥❡✇ t❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣✐❡s ❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❛❝t✐✈✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❣♦♦❞s ♣r♦❞✉❝❡rs ✭❈●P✮ ❛♥❞ t❤❡✐r ✈✐♥t❛❣❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡✳ ❲❤❡♥ ✐♥✈❡st✐♥❣ ❛ ❈P● ❝❤♦♦s❡s ❛ ✈✐♥t❛❣❡ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❛ ❧♦❣✐t ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❢✉t✉r❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐✈✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡ ✈✐♥t❛❣❡ ♦✈❡r ❛ ♣❧❛♥♥✐♥❣ ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ✭❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ s❦✐❧❧s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✜r♠✬s ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❡s✮✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✾

slide-10
SLIDE 10

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❙❦✐❧❧ ❉②♥❛♠✐❝s

❙♣❡❝✐✜❝ s❦✐❧❧s ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡rs ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ❧❡❛r♥✐♥❣ ❜② ❞♦✐♥❣ ✐❢ t❤❡② ❛r❡ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞✳ ❜✇,t+✶ = ❜✇,t + χ(❜❣❡♥

✇ ) × ♠❛①[❆✐,t − ❜✇,t, ✵]

▲❡❛r♥✐♥❣ s♣❡❡❞ χ ❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ s❦✐❧❧s ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡r ❜❣❡♥

✇ ✳

✭▲♦❝❛❧✮ ❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡ ✢♦✇s ❛♥❞ s♣✐❧❧♦✈❡rs t❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t✳

❲♦r❦❡rs tr❛♥s❢❡r s♣❡❝✐✜❝ s❦✐❧❧s ✇❤❡♥ ❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡r✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✵

slide-11
SLIDE 11

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

■♥✐t✐❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥

✷ r❡❣✐♦♥s✿ ❘✶✿ ❤✐❣❤ t❡❝❤ ❘✷✿ ❧♦✇ t❡❝❤ P♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ s✐③❡ ✭❍❍✴❋✐r♠s✮✿ ✽✵✵✴✹✵ ✽✵✵✴✹✵ ■♥✐t✐❛❧ q✉❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ st♦❝❦✿ ✶✳✺ ✶✳✵ ■♥✐t✐❛❧ s♣❡❝✐✜❝ s❦✐❧❧s✿ ✶✳✺ ✶✳✵

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ s❦✐❧❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✭❤✐❣❤✴❧♦✇✮

✵✳✽ ✴ ✵✳✷ ✵✳✷ ✴ ✵✳✽ ■♥✐t✐❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ❣♦♦❞ q✉❛❧✐t② ❛t ❢r♦♥t✐❡r✿ ✶✳✼✳ ❱❛r②✐♥❣ ❧❡✈❡❧s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♠✉t✐♥❣ ❝♦sts✿ ❢r♦♠ ③❡r♦ t♦ ♣r♦❤✐❜✐t✐✈❡❧② ❤✐❣❤ ❝♦♠♠✉t✐♥❣ ❝♦sts✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✶

slide-12
SLIDE 12

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

P♦❧✐❝② ❊①♣❡r✐♠❡♥ts

✶ ❍✉♠❛♥ ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ✭❍❈✮ P♦❧✐❝②✿ ❯♣❣r❛❞❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ s❦✐❧❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥

✐♥ r❡❣✐♦♥ ✷ t♦ t❤❛t ♦❢ r❡❣✐♦♥ ✶

❙❦✐❧❧ ✉♣❣r❛❞✐♥❣ t❛❦❡s ❡✛❡❝t ❛❢t❡r ✶✷✵ ♠♦♥t❤s✳

✷ ❚❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣② ✭❚❡❝❤✮ P♦❧✐❝②✿ ❙✉❜s✐❞✐③❡ ✜r♠ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥ts ✐♥ r❡❣✐♦♥

✷ ✭❜② ✺✪✮ ✐❢ t❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣② ♦♥ t❤❡ ❢r♦♥t✐❡r ✐s ❝❤♦s❡♥✳ ✶✺ r✉♥s ❢♦r ✼✺✵ ♠♦♥t❤s ❝❛rr✐❡❞ ♦✉t ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ❝♦♠♠✉t✐♥❣ ❝♦st s❝❡♥❛r✐♦✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✷

slide-13
SLIDE 13

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❇❛s❡ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❍❈ P♦❧✐❝② ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

❈♦♠♣❛r✐s♦♥ ♦❢ r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ♦✉t♣✉ts

200 400 600 1000 2000 3000 4000 Months Output 200 400 600 1000 2000 3000 4000 Months Output

❧❡❢t✿ ❤✐❣❤❧② ✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t❀ r✐❣❤t✿ s❡♣❛r❛t❡❞ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡ts ❇❧❛❝❦ ❧✐♥❡✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✶❀ r❡❞ ❧✐♥❡✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✷

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✸

slide-14
SLIDE 14

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❇❛s❡ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❍❈ P♦❧✐❝② ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

❈♦♠♣❛r✐s♦♥ ♦❢ r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ♦✉t♣✉ts

Months 200 400 600 Commuting Costs in % 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

  • u

t p u t 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Main Effect

Months 200 400 600 Commuting Costs in % 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

  • u

t p u t 500 1000 1500

Main Effect

❧❡❢t✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✶❀ r✐❣❤t✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✷

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✹

slide-15
SLIDE 15

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❇❛s❡ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❍❈ P♦❧✐❝② ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

200 400 600 −200 200 400 600 Months

  • utput

200 400 600 −200 200 400 600 Months

  • utput

❧❡❢t✿ ❤✐❣❤❧② ✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t❀ r✐❣❤t✿ s❡♣❛r❛t❡❞ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡ts ❇❧❛❝❦ ❧✐♥❡✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✶❀ r❡❞ ❧✐♥❡✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✷

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✺

slide-16
SLIDE 16

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❇❛s❡ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❍❈ P♦❧✐❝② ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

❖✉t♣✉t ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❛ ❍❈ P♦❧✐❝②

Months 20 40 60 80 100 Commuting Costs in % 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

  • u

t p u t −500 500

HC Effect

Months 20 40 60 80 100 Commuting Costs in % 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

  • u

t p u t −500 500 1000

HC Effect

❧❡❢t✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✶❀ r✐❣❤t✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✷

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✻

slide-17
SLIDE 17

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❇❛s❡ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❍❈ P♦❧✐❝② ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

❖✉t♣✉t ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❛ ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

200 400 600 −500 500 Months

  • utput

200 400 600 −500 500 Months

  • utput

❧❡❢t✿ ❤✐❣❤❧② ✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t❀ r✐❣❤t✿ s❡♣❛r❛t❡❞ ❧❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡ts ❇❧❛❝❦ ❧✐♥❡✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✶❀ r❡❞ ❧✐♥❡✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✷

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✼

slide-18
SLIDE 18

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❇❛s❡ ❙❝❡♥❛r✐♦ ❍❈ P♦❧✐❝② ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

❖✉t♣✉t ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❛ ❚❡❝❤ P♦❧✐❝②

Months 20 40 60 80 100 Commuting Costs in % 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

  • u

t p u t −800 −600 −400 −200

Tech Effect

Months 20 40 60 80 100 Commuting Costs in % 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

  • u

t p u t 200 400 600 800 1000

Tech Effect

❧❡❢t✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✶❀ r✐❣❤t✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ✷

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✽

slide-19
SLIDE 19

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❲✐t❤♦✉t ♣♦❧✐❝②

❚❤❡ ❛❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ❊✉r❛❝❡❅❯♥✐❜✐ ♠❛❝r♦✲♠♦❞❡❧ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✉s❡❞ t♦ ❡①♣❧♦r❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❝♦❤❡s✐♦♥ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ✐♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥❛❧ s❡t✉♣s✳ Pr♦❤✐❜✐t✐✈❡❧② ❤✐❣❤ ❝♦♠♠✉t✐♥❣ ❝♦sts✿ ♥♦ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ❣❛♣✳ ❘❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♠✉t✐♥❣ ❝♦sts✿

♥♦♥✲♠♦♥♦t♦♥✐❝ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ♦✉t♣✉ts✳

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧❧②✿ ▲♦✇❡r ❝♦♠♠✉t✐♥❣ ❝♦sts ✭❧❡ss s♣❛t✐❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s✮

❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛t❡s ❞✐✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✶✾

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SLIDE 20

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❲✐t❤ ♣♦❧✐❝②

▲♦✇ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s✿

❍❈ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛t❡s ❞✐✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡✳ P♦❧✐❝② ❤❛s ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✉t♣✉t ✐♥ r❡❣✐♦♥ ✶✳ ❚❡❝❤ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛t❡s ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡✳ ❚❡❝❤ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❤❛s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✉t♣✉t ✐♥ r❡❣✐♦♥ ✶✳

❍✐❣❤ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s✿

❍❈ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛t❡s ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡✳ P♦❧✐❝② ❤❛s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✉t♣✉t ✐♥ r❡❣✐♦♥ ✶✳ ❚❡❝❤ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛t❡s ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡✳ ❚❡❝❤ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❤❛s ♥❡✉tr❛❧ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✉t♣✉t ✐♥ r❡❣✐♦♥ ✶✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✷✵

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SLIDE 21

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

P♦❧✐❝② ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥

❈♦♥✢✐❝t ♦❢ ❣♦❛❧s✿ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ r❡❣✐♦♥s✳ P♦❧✐❝② ♠❛❦❡rs s❤♦✉❧❞ ❝❛r❡❢✉❧❧② ❝❤♦♦s❡ t❤❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❛s✱ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ t❤❡ s♣❛t✐❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s✱ s♦♠❡ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❝❛♥ ❤❛✈❡ ❞✐❛♠❡tr✐❝❛❧❧② ♦♣♣♦s❡❞ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡✳

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✷✶

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SLIDE 22

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❘❡❧❛t❡❞ ▲✐t❡r❛t✉r❡

◆❡♦❝❧❛ss✐❝❛❧ ❣r♦✇t❤ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ❞❡❜❛t❡✿ ❡✳❣✳ ▼❛♥❦✐✇ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✶✾✾✷✮✱ ♦r ❇❛rr♦ ✫ ❙❛❧❛✲✐✲▼❛rt✐♥ ✭✶✾✾✷✮✱ ■s❧❛♠ ✭✷✵✵✸✮ ❚❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣② ❛❞♦♣t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❣r♦✇t❤✿ ❡✳❣✳ P❛r❡♥t❡ ❛♥❞ Pr❡s❝♦tt ✭✶✾✾✹✮✱ ❈♦♠✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❍♦❜✐❥♥ ✭✷✵✶✵✱ ✷✵✶✶✮ ❙❦✐❧❧s ❛♥❞ ❚❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣② ❈❤♦✐❝❡✿ ❈❛s❡❧❧✐ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱ P✐✈❛ ❛♥❞ ❱✐✈❛r❡❧❧✐ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ❊✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ✭❊❯✮ ❝♦❤❡s✐♦♥ ♣♦❧✐❝②✿ ❇♦❧❞r✐♥ ✫ ❈❛♥♦✈❛ ✭✷✵✵✶✮✱ ❘❛♠❛❥❛ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✽✮✱ ❆r❝❛❧❡❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ❑♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡ s♣✐❧❧♦✈❡rs ❜② ♠✐❣r❛t✐♥❣ ✇♦r❦❡rs✿ ❆❣❤✐♦♥ ❡t ❛❧ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ❆❣❡♥t✲❜❛s❡❞ ♠❛❝r♦♠♦❞❡❧s✿ ❙✐❧✈❡r❜❡r❣ ✫ ❱❡rs♣❛❣❡♥ ✭✶✾✾✸✮✱ ❉❡❧❧✐ ●❛tt✐ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✱ ✷✵✵✽✮✱ ❉♦s✐ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✱ ✷✵✶✶✮✱ ▼❛♥❞❡❧ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ ❆s❤r❛❢② ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✶✮✱ ❉❛✇✐❞ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✾✱ ✷✵✶✶✱ ✷✵✶✷✮

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✷✷

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SLIDE 23

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❙❡t ✉♣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s

❚❤❛♥❦ ②♦✉ ❢♦r ②♦✉r ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥✦ ■♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ❊✉r❛❝❡❅❯♥✐❜✐ ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❡①t❡♥s✐✈❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ❛t✿ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳✇✐✇✐✳✉♥✐✲❜✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞✳❞❡✴✈♣❧✶✴r❡s❡❛r❝❤✴❡✉r❛❝❡✲✉♥✐❜✐✳❤t♠❧

P❤✐❧✐♣♣ ❍❛rt✐♥❣✱ ❇✐❡❧❡❢❡❧❞ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ▲❛ts✐s ❙②♠♣♦s✐✉♠ ✷✵✶✷ ✷✸