Surface Transportation Board Rail Energy Transportation Advisory - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Surface Transportation Board Rail Energy Transportation Advisory - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 17, 2023 207 likes •323 views

Surface Transportation Board Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee Meeting Performance Measures Subcommittee Update October 2, 2014 Using EIA, AAR and individual railroad data sources, a data table is assimilated, and from it...

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Surface Transportation Board – Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee Meeting

Performance Measures Subcommittee Update

October 2, 2014

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2

Six coal-related dashboards, organized as follows:

  • 1. Coal Production, Consumption, and Inventories Dashboard
  • 2. Net Generation by Fuel Type Dashboard
  • 3. Coal Exports Dashboard
  • 4. Western Rail Coal Carloads Dashboard
  • 5. Eastern Rail Coal Carloads Dashboard
  • 6. Canadian Rail Coal Carloads Dashboard
  • 7. Railroad Coal Train Speed Dashboard

Most dashboards have three sections:

  • a. Left - historical and forecasted data (no forecasts of rail metrics)
  • b. Middle - comparison for the most recent quarter (Q3 or Q4 as noted)
  • c. Right - current YTD comparison versus the 5-year range

Using EIA, AAR and individual railroad data sources, a data table is assimilated, and from it…...

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2013 YTD Appalachia Interior Western Total Q1 71.3 45 126.8 243.1 Q2 66.2 48.1 142.4 256.7 Sum: 137.5 93.1 269.2 499.8 2014 YTD Appalachia Interior Western Total Q1 70.9 46.8 127.2 244.9 Q2 70 49.5 135.2 254.7 Sum: 140.9 96.3 262.4 499.6 Tonnage 3.4 3.2

  • 6.8
  • 0.2

Percent 2.47% 3.44%

  • 2.53%
  • 0.04%

2013 YTD Electric Pwr Other Coke Total 2013 YTD Met Steam Total Q1 212 11.8 5.3 229.1 Q1 18.2 13.7 31.8 Q2 200.2 10.6 5.1 215.9 Q2 16.1 13.3 29.4 Sum: 412.2 22.4 10.4 445 Sum: 34.3 27 61.2 2014 YTD Electric Pwr Other Coke Total 2014 YTD Met Steam Total Q1 231.7 12.2 5 248.9 Q1 16.9 10.9 27.7 Q2 196.8 11.5 5.1 213.4 Q2 14.7 8.3 23 Sum: 428.5 23.7 10.1 462.3 Sum: 31.6 19.2 50.7 Tonnage 16.3 1.3

  • 0.3

17.3 Tonnage

  • 2.7
  • 7.8
  • 10.5

Percent 3.95% 5.80%

  • 2.88%

3.89% Percent

  • 7.87%
  • 28.89%
  • 17.16%

2013 YTD Electric Pwr Bit Sub-Bit Total Q1 171.5 81.8 88.7 342 Sum: 171.5 81.8 88.7 342 2014 YTD Electric Pwr Bit Sub-Bit Total Q1 117.9 57 60.7 235.6 Sum: 117.9 57 60.7 235.6 Tonnage

  • 53.6
  • 24.8
  • 28
  • 106.4

Percent

  • 31.25%
  • 30.32%
  • 31.57%
  • 31.11%

Coal Production MM Tons Coal Consumption MM Tons Coal Inventories MM Tons Coal Exports MM Tons

3 Performance Summary Coal Production (2014 YTD vs 2013 YTD) Appalachia: Increased 3.4 million tons (+2.5%) Interior: Increased 3.2 million tons (+3.4%) Western: Decreased 6.8 million tons (-2.5%) Total Production: Decreased 0.2 million tons (-.04%) Coal Consumption (2014 YTD vs 2013 YTD) Electricity/Power Increased 16.3 million tons (+3.9%) Retail/Other Increased 1.3 million tons (+5.8%) Met/Coke Decreased 0.3 million tons (-2.9%) Total Consumption Increased 31.1 million tons (+3.5%) Coal Exports (2014 YTD vs 2013 YTD) Met Coal: Decreased 2.7 million net tons (-7.9%) Steam Coal: Decreased 7.8 million net tons (-28%) Total Exports: Decreased 10 million net tons (-17%)

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4

2013 YTD BNSF UP *KCS NS CSX CN CP Total Q1 542 364 49 266 235 58 60 1,574 Q2 513 373 48 262 239 61 55 1,551 Sum: 1,055 737 97 528 474 119 115 3,125 2014 YTD BNSF UP *KCS NS CSX CN CP Total Q1 565 388 48 229 218 53 60 1,561 Q2 547 373 46 269 246 61 65 1,607 Sum: 1,112 761 94 498 464 114 125 3,168 Carloads 57 24

  • 3
  • 30
  • 10
  • 5

10 43 Percent 5.4% 3.3%

  • 3.1%
  • 5.7%
  • 2.1%
  • 4.2%

8.7% 1.4% Car Originations / *KCS Receipts (000 Carloads) 2013 YTD BNSF UP *KCS NS CSX CN Avg Q1 23.4 27.9 28.1 17.8 19.6 25.1 24 Q2 20.7 27.1 26.6 17.5 19.3 25.6 23 2014 YTD BNSF UP *KCS NS CSX CN Avg Q1 18.8 25.6 26 17.1 18.2 24.9 22 Q2 17.5 24.3 25.1 16.6 16.6 25.5 21 Average Train Speeds (MPH)

Performance Summary Railroad Carloads (CY 2013 estimate versus CY 2012) BNSF: Increased 56,500 carloads (+5.4%) Union Pacific: Increased 23,300 carloads (+3.3%) Kansas City Southern: Decreased 2,200 carloads (-3.1%) Norfolk Southern: Decreased 30,000 carloads (-5.7%) CSX Transportation: Decreased 10,800 carloads (-2.1%) Canadian National: Decreased 3,500 carloads (-4.2%) Canadian Pacific: Increased 9,000 carloads (+8.7%) Total Carloads: Increased 43,300 carloads (+1.4%)

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5

Source Data: EIA

U.S. COAL PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND INVENTORIES DASHBOARD

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mn Short Tons

Historical and Forecasted Consumption

Electric Pwr Sector Retail & Other Industry Coke

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mn Short Tons

Historical and Forecasted Production

Total Appalachia Interior Western Forecast

50 100 150 200 250 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mn Short Tons

Historical and Forecasted End-of-Period Inventories

Bituminous Coal Sub-Bituminous Coal Electric Pwr Sector 50 100 150 200 250 300 Total Appalachia Interior Western

Mn Short Tons

Q2 Production Comparison

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Electric Pwr Sector Retail & Other Industry Coke

Mn Short tons

Q2 Consumption Comparison

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

50 100 150 200 250 Electric Pwr Sector Bituminous Coal Sub-Bituminous Coal

Mn Short Tons

Q2 End-of-Period Inventories Comparison

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast

200 220 240 260 280 300 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mn Short Tons

2014 Consumption vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2014 Forecast

200 220 240 260 280 300 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mn Short Tons

2014 Production vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2014 Forecast 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mn Short Tons

2014 End-of-Period Inventories vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2014 Forecast

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6

Source Data: EIA

NET GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE DASHBOARD

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

(000 Megawatthours)

Historical Net Generation by Fuel Type

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydroelectric Renewables

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Source Data: EIA

U.S. COAL EXPORTS DASHBOARD

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mn Short Tons

Historical and Forecasted Exports

Met Steam Forecast 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mn Short Tons

2014 Exports vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2014 Forecas t

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Total Met Steam Mn Short Tons

Q2 Exports Comparison

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Source Data: AAR, BNSF, UP, KCS

WESTERN RAILROAD COAL CARLOADS DASHBOARD

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

KCS Historical Receipts

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

BNSF Q2 Originations Comparison

320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

UP Q2 Originations Comparison

400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Carloads (000)

2013 BNSF Originations vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2013 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

KCS Q2 Receipts Comparison

360 380 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Carload (000)

2013 UP Originations vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2013 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Carloads (000)

2013 KCS Receipts vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2013 100 200 300 400 500 600 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

UP Historical Originations

400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

BNSF Historical Originations

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Source data: AAR, CSX, NS

EASTERN RAILROAD COAL CARLOADS DASHBOARD

200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

NS Historical Originations

200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

CSX Historical Originations

200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

CSX Q2 Originations Comparison

230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

NS Q2 Originations Comparison

200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Carloads (000)

2013 NS Originations vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2013 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Carloads (000)

2013 CSX Originations vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2013

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10

Source Data: AAR, CN, CP

CANADIAN RAILROAD COAL CARLOADS DASHBOARD

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

CN Historical Originations

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

CN Q2 Originations Comparison

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Carloads (000)

2013 CN Originations vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2013 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

CP Historical Originations

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carloads (000)

CP Q2 Originations Comparison

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Carloads (000)

2013 CP Originations vs 5-Year Range

5 Year Range 2013

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11

Source Data: AAR, BNSF, UP, KCS, NS, CSX, CN, CP

RAILROAD COAL TRAIN SPEED DASHBOARD

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mph

Historical Coal Train Speed

BNSF UP KCS NS CSX CN CP

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mph

Q2 Coal Train Speed Comparison

BNSF UP KCS NS CSX CN CP

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 BNSF UP KCS NS CSX CN Mph

2014 YTD Coal Train Speeds