Solicitation R R2114367P 114367P1. 1. 100 100-Yea ear F Flood - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presentation in Response to:

Solicitation R R2114367P 114367P1. 1. 100 100-Yea ear F Flood Elev evation M Map a and Associated ed M Model eling g Lago C Consulting & g & Services es L LLC LC

4237 Henderson Blvd. Suite 201. Tampa, FL 33629

Sept 27, 2017

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Conte nt

• 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required
• 4. How we will validate those improvements
• 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity as it relates to development of IDF curves

for future conditions

• 6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project
• 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform the project

Presented to Broward County’s Selection Committee Members, Sept 27, 2017

813.774- 5559

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Our Team, Our main roles

Lago Consulting & Services Bermello Ajamil and Partners Ross Engineering CRS Max

• Data Processing

and Analysis.

• Community

Outreach

• Community

Rating System Improvement

• Stakeholder

Involvement

• Community

Outreach

• MIKE SHE/MIKE11
• Utilities/Tools
• Non-Stationary IDF
• Flooding Maps

LAGO B&A ROSS CRS Max

• 1. Ke y me mbe r

s, the ir r

• le in the pr
• je c t and the ir

c apabilitie s

• 1. Ke y me mbe r

s, the ir r

• le in the pr
• je c t and the ir

c apabilitie s

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Ananta Nath, P.E, D.WRE – Senior Water Resources Engineer at LAGO Peter deGolian, MSc. – Senior Project Manager and Senior Hydrologist at LAGO Marcelo E. Lago, PhD, GISP, CFM – Vice-President and Senior Scientist at LAGO

Project Manager Deputy Project Mngr. Principal Modeler

• Project manager for all work assignments,
• Oversee the work and supervise assigned personnel,
• Coordinate with the County on all matters regarding the project,
• Provide support in his areas of expertise and QA/QC.
• Day to day supervision of activities, deadlines and schedule,
• Support the project manager in all contract matters,
• Assist in coordination with County staff,
• Hands-on in activities related to his areas of expertise.
• Hands on guidance and supervision of all modeling tasks
• Define modeling approaches, methods and evaluate alternatives
• Lead programmer for development of project related utilities.

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Maria C. Bravo, PhD, P.E. – President and Sr. Scientist and Engineer at LAGO. Michelle Irizarry, P.E. – Senior Professional Engineer at LAGO

• 1. Ke y me mbe r

s, the ir r

• le in the pr
• je c t and the ir

c apabilitie s

Principal in Charge Future Condition/ IDF

• Verify that all contract obligations are met
• Provide QA/QC and serve as the senior technical advisor
• Technical leadership and schedule personnel and resources for

successful execution of each task.

• Technical lead for Non-Stationarity IDF Curve development
• Specialized support in task 4 to generate storm events assuming

nonstationary conditions for both 2060 and 2100 future conditions. Robert Ross, PE – Principal Engineer and Vice-President of Ross Engineering

Data Collection QA/QC

• Data collection activities, including data review and QA/QC
• Community outreach activities.

Herman Taube, PG – Senior Geologist at Ross Engineering

• Review of MODFLOW output files for conversion into

groundwater utility

• Utility testing and verification.

ModFlow Expert

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Coordinate with Broward County, 298s, professionals, developers municipalities, regulatory agencies and business organizations on the results of the modeling efforts. TAC/WAB, Surface Water Coordination Committee, ASCE, FES, Task Force meetings

Jose L. Lopez, P.E., PMP – Senior Professional Engineer at B&A

Coordinate with Broward County and public outreach. Public forums.

Teresita Garcia– Public Involvement Director at B&A

Technical Outreach Community Outreach

• 1. Ke y me mbe r

s, the ir r

• le in the pr
• je c t and the ir

c apabilitie s

Earl King, CFM – CRS Senior Consultant and Vice President of CRS Max

FEMA’s Community Rating System. Hands-on on CRS related matters of this project. Provide support to summarize CRS potential creditable criteria and recommendations, as required in task 10. CRS outreach

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Project Manager Deputy Project Manager Principal Modeler Principal in Charge Future Condition/ IDF Technical Outreach Community Outreach Data Collection ModFlow Expert

Capabilitie s.

CRS Expert

• 1. Ke y me mbe r

s, the ir r

• le in the pr
• je c t and the ir

c apabilitie s

Role

Ke y Me mbe r s

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BC Model less SFWMD’ data

• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h
• 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required?

TOPOGRAPHY

• LAGO pre-evaluated

and found differences between the model elevation data and the most recent DEM from the SFWMD. The BC model will be updated with the new DEM.

• Cross-sections will be

reviewed to ensure that ground elevations are consistent with new elevation data

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• 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required?
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h

LAND USE

• Water classified cells in

the model do not include all water bodies

• Recommend updating

the landuse map and related parameters

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STRUCTURES

• Review structure data currently defined in the model
• Verify invert elevations and dimensions
• Verify operational rules and protocols
• Collect data on recently constructed structures and stormwater

management features in the model area.

• New Permits
• Coordination with SFWMD
• Projects in City of Fort Lauderdale
• 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required?
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h

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DRAINAGE

• LAGO developed utility

to evaluate drainage routing

• Will evaluate current

model drainage routines and correct as needed to improve COUPLING SW-GW

• Will evaluate leakance

coefficients in the MIKE 11 network

• 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required?
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h

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• 4. How we will validate those improvements?
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h

LAGO will evaluate the accuracy of the model and its ability to reproduce measured data. For this: 1. 1. LAGO a and t the C County wi will e establish criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of the model to produce results that are consistent with measured flow, stage and flooding information 2. LAGO and the County will select one or two recent storm events to be used to evaluate model performance 3. Collect measured data of flow and stage for the selected events. Also collect anecdotal information (pictures, reported flooding) for use in area where measured data is limited

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(Cont.)

• 4. How we will validate those improvements?
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h

LAGO’S EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE APPLYING MIKE SHE/MIKE11 MODELS

will be utilized during the model verification process to ensure that the model accurately predicts the system response

• Changing the topography and land use suggests that the results of the initial

model run may not fully represent the observed conditions for the selected storm events.

• LAGO will implement an optimization process to validate the model

Our team will put Special focus on structure operations and input parameters that control the timing and volume of runoff during storm events.

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• 1. Go directly to existing downscaled Datasets that could show smaller biases in

historical extremes, such as: Lessons learned from our Hands-on experience on Non-stationary IDF curves dictates the following steps:

Non-stationarity continue in next slide

LAGO will provide im m ediate analysis & suggestions on the dataset selection for Broward County consideration and final decision

• 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF

Curves for Future conditions?

• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h

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• 3. Apply a quantile mapping technique for temporally downscaling extremes for

durations shorter than 1 day similar to one used by Tetratech (2015)

Non-stationarity continue in next slide

• 4. Use Carney (2016) method to increase confidence in most extreme events

(100-500 year frequencies) to correct biases in the Generalized Extreme Value shape parameter. Note: IDF curves are desired to be projected to year 2100, but most of the downscaled model products end in the year 2100. Therefore, a 40-year period analysis would be centered around the year 2080.

L AGO c o unts with a c ode in “R” to e ffe c tive ly a ddre ss ste ps 1 & 2

• 2. Lago, in consultation with Broward, will decide which percentiles and which

Representative Concentration Pathways’s of downscaled model predictions to consider in the analysis

• SFWMD concerned with overall 5th-50th-95th
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

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• 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF

Curves for Future conditions?

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Concern: Joint Probability of occurrence of all flood driving variables? SLR, storm surge, extreme rainfall & moisture conditions Extreme rainfall events, combined with Sea Level Rise scenarios will be evaluated.

• 5. Lago will decide in consultation with Broward which temporal rainfall

distribution to use in this project

• Normalized curves by NOAA Atlas 14 or SFWMD
• Apply Lago Precipitation-Duration tool to develop input files

Adopted by the County

• n 2016 as the basis for

a SLR projection for planning.

Compact, 2015

• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

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• 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF

Curves for Future conditions?

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ALL our Pre- and Post-processing tools that MAXIMIZE the Modeling efficiency, and MINIMIZE human errors. Among the most relevant for this project are: MODFLOW Res To dfs: Converts MODFLOW result files to dfs2 and dfs3 files formats (for MIKE SHE). Process PP_Print.log file : Produces visual map with discharge location of each cell where drainage is specified Hydroperiod from Microtopo: Maximum water depth maps at a higher resolution than MIKE SHE Grid. The BC model is 500-ft grid, but grid-based

topographic data sets are usually with grids as small as 5-feet. LAGO will develop a utility to convert results from coastal modeling efforts into MIKE’s format for use as boundary cond. in the canal network and overland component.

• 6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h

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MODFLOW Res To dfs: Converts MODFLOW result files to dfs2 and dfs3 files formats

• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h
• 6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project

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• 1. Identify stakeholders
• 2. Communication outreach tools
• 3. Organize and Coordinate meetings

and Public forums

• 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform

about the project

Coordinate with

Technical CRS Public Outreach

• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h

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Stakeholder ers Com

• mmunit

ity O y Outreac ach Tools

• ols
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

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• ac h
• 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform

about the project

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Technical

Stakeholders meetings in coordination with water control districts, professional

• rganizations, business and developing industries.
• South and Central Broward, coordinate with SBDD and CBWCD
• North Broward, coordinate with OPWCD, NSID, CSID, Cocomar and Broward

County

• Coastal Broward, coordinate with Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, Dania Beach,

Hallandale Beach, Pompano Beach and Deerfield Beach

• 2. Br

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• 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform

about the project

Development of Program for Public Information (PPI) Strategic utilization of this CRS outreach could earn a total of 495 points:

• 350 points in CRS Activity 330 – Public Outreach
• 100 points in CRS Activity 370 – Flood Insurance Promotion
• 45 points in other CRS Activities

Each class within the CRS program is separated from the next higher class by 500 points. Team member CRS Max Consultants has proven success with developments of PPIs (9 in South Florida alone). Additional points resulting from Lago team efforts may be earned in other CRS Activities, including: Activity 320 – Map Information Service Activity 410 – Flood Hazard Mapping Activity 430 – Higher Regulatory Standards Activity 440 – Flood Data Maintenance

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CRS

Activity 450 – Stormwater Management Activity 530 – Flood Protection Activity 540 – Drainage System Maintenance Activity 610 – Flood Warning and Response

• 2. Br

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• 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform

about the project

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South Florida communities improved within the past 6 years:

• Collier County (Class 6 – Class 5)
• Palm Beach County (Class 6 – Class 5)
• City of Boynton Beach (Class 7 – Class 6)
• Town of Jupiter (Class 6 – Class 5)
• Town of Surfside (Class 10 – Class 8)
• Village of Tequesta (Class 8 – Class 7)
• Village of Wellington (Class 7 – Class 6)

LAGO Team has proven success in working together with local communities to improve their respective CRS classifications.

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• 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform

about the project

CRS

(Cont.)

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Public Ou Outr treach

• Presentations to professional organizations
• Public forums with Water Control Districts and utilities
• Presentations to business stakeholders and insurance companies
• Meetings with developers
• Meetings with local organizations
• 2. Br

ie f Re vie w of Pr

• je c t Appr
• ac h
• 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform

about the project

Conc lusions: Why L AGO?

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Q u e s t i o n s ?

Matchless MIKE SHE/MIKE11 Modeling Experts. Well versed on the

MIKE’s suite, its algorithms, solvers and troubleshooting, etc.

Authors of original Broward MIKE SHE/MIKE11 Model. Masters on data mining, management and analysis. Local experts. Exclusive expertise in export/import from other model platforms. Ex:. Utility needed for MODFLOW developed & tested. Unique set of pre- & post processing (user friendly) tools & well established reputation for developing Tools/Utilities as needed. Current Broward Model/Input data pre-evaluated by LAGO. Proven Local Leadership in Predicting Non Stationary IDF curves. Code in R already developed and tested. Unmatched Skills in Community Rating Systems (CRS) Improvement

Exceptional Range of Public Involvement Experience in Broward