IDF World Dairy Summit, Vilnius, Lithuania September 22nd, 2015 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IDF World Dairy Summit, Vilnius, Lithuania September 22nd, 2015

• Special thanks to:
• ZNL
• CN
• IDF National Committees

and other national contributors

• And our 2015 partner

Recent and current World Dairy Situation

• 2014: start of a market turnaround
• Abundant milk deliveries which led to further dairy
• utput growth
• Solid increase of World dairy trade
• Fall of dairy prices almost continuously until 2015
• Record farm-gate milk prices in 2014 before

serious downturn

• World dairy consumption estimated at 110.7 kg

per capita

Milk production

200 400 600 800 1.000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2014 Cow milk Buffalo milk Other milk mln tonnes

Asia 28% EU 28 24% North and Central America 18% South America 11% Other Europe 9% Africa 5% Oceania 5%

+ 3.3%

2014: 802 mln tonnes + 1.5 to 2% per year 2016: 830 mln tonnes

Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, FAO, IDF National Committees, national statistics.

Dairy product output

<-1%

• 1% to +1%

+1% to +3% >+3%

Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, FAO, IDF National Committees, national statistics.

Evolution of milk deliveries 2013/2014

Dairy product output

9,1 9,5 9,9 10,1 10,4 6 7 8 9 10 11 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

mln tonnes +3.8% +2.0% +3.4% +4.6%

Butter/-oil

18,2 18,4 18,8 19,1 19,6 15 16 17 18 19 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

mln tonnes +2.3% +1.7% +2.6% +1.2%

Cheese

3,7 4,0 4,2 4,2 4,8 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

mln tonnes +5.2% -0.3% +15.1% +7.7%

4,3 4,7 4,8 4,8 5,1 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

mln tonnes +2.5% +1.0% +6.0% +8.9%

SMP WMP

Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, FAO, IDF National Committees, national statistics.

Industry leaders

Company Country Dairy turnover 2014 (bln USD) 2013-2014 1 Lactalis FR 21.9 + 3% 2 Fonterra NZ 18.7 + 24% 3 Nestlé CH 18.3

• 2%

4 DFA US 17.9 + 40% 5 FrieslandCampina NL 15.0

• 1%

6 Danone FR 14.8

• 6%

7 Arla Foods DK 14.1 + 7% 8 Dean Foods US 9.5 + 6% 9 Saputo CA 9.4 + 7% 10 Yili CN 8.8 + 14% 11 Mengniu CN 8.1 + 15% 12 Sodiaal FR 7.2 + 17% 13 DMK DE 7.0

• 0%

14 Savencia FR 6.1 + 4% 15 Meiji Dairies JP 5.8

• 9%

16 Morinaga Milk Industry JP 5.4

• 9%

17 Land O'Lakes US 5.1 + 13% 18 Schreiber US 5.0 19 Müller DE 4.9 20 Glanbia Plc IE 4.7 + 7% 21 Megmik Snow Brand JP 4.3

• 7%

22 Agropur CA 4.2 + 14% 23 Kraft Foods US 4.1 + 4% 24 Emmi CH 3.7 + 5% 25 Bel FR 3.7 + 2%

Source: CNIEL, company reports, international press.

+ 3 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1

Dairy consumption

7.2 billion 110.7 kg/capita/ year

Informal 46% Fresh milk and dairy products 17% Butter 15% Cheese 13% WMP 4% SMP 3% Other 2%

38% 28% 13% 9% 6% 4% 2% Central America Oceania Africa South America North America Europe Asia

Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, FAO, IDF National Committees, national statistics.

Dairy consumption

200 400 600 800 1000

WORLD Developed Countries Developing Countries Least Advanced Countries

1 000 tonnes milk equivalent

+2.2% CAGR +0.9% CAGR +3.0% CAGR +4.5% CAGR

Annual growth rates of total consumption between 2014 and 2024

Source: CNIEL, ZuivelNL, OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015.

Trade

Export share development of key exporters 2000-2014 (in milk equivalents)

19% 3% 4% 6% 14% 26% 28% 16% 3% 2% 16% 5% 39% 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Rest of world Argentina Belarus Australia USA EU New Zealand 2000 2014

Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Trade

38,2 43,9 52,8 62,7 66,5 66,0 68,6 15 30 45 60 75 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 mln tonnes + 6%

• 0.7%

+ 4%

World trade volume development: 2000-2016

Source: ZuivelNL, European Commission.

Trade

Russia

Belarus USA Australia

+33% China Mexico Saudi Arabia

• 11%

Japan +13% +20%

• 48%

+5% +7% +15% +30% +0% Philippines +44% +80% Switzerland +4% +40% South Korea

• 13%

+8% +24%

New Zealand

+47%

EU

Cheese

Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Trade

Russia

Belarus USA Australi

China Saudi Arabia +4%

New Zealand EU

• 36%

+122%

• +28%
• 12%

+6% +56% Egypt Iran

• 20%

Butter and butteroil

Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Trade

USA

• 12%

China Mexico

• 10%

+11% Algeria +146% Egyp +32% Indonesia

• 1%

+10%

• 20%

+23% Vietnam Malaysia

• 22%
• 7%
• 19%
• 4%

Singapore +192% +53% +7% +102%

Australia

+60% Nigeria +25% +25 Philippines

New Zealand

Saudi Arabia Russia

• 5%

EU Belarus

Skim milk powder

Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Trade

New Zealand

• 6%

China Brazil Algeria +136% Nigeria +48% +1% Singapore +9%

Argentina Uruguay

• 26%

Venezuela +2%

• 21%
• 7%

Oman

• 4%

+14% Libanon U.A.E.

• 21%

+62%

Australia

+9% Malaysia Sri Lanka

• 44%

Angola

• 3%

+190%

EU

Whole milk powder

Source: ZuivelNL, Comtrade.

Dairy prices

700 1.700 2.700 3.700 4.700 5.700 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USD per tonne Cheddar Butter SMP WMP

Variations of dairy prices between 2001-2006 and 2007-2015 (FOB Oceania)

Source: USDA.

Farmgate milk prices

10 20 30 40 50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

38.62

EUR/100 kg 2 4 6 8 10

00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15

NZD/kg MS

4.65

Annual producer prices for milk in the EU in NZ (Fonterra) And in the US (Class III)

5 10 15 20 25 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

22.34

USD/cwt Source: LTO International Milk Price Comparison.

Farmgate milk prices

30 33 36 39 42 45 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2014 2015 EUR/100 kg 15 17 19 21 23 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2014 2015 USD/cwt

Source: LTO International Milk Price Comparison.

Monthly evolution of milk prices in the EU And in the US

• 2015
• Milk volumes weighing on

market

• Inventories building up
• Strong fall in dairy prices
• And beyond
• Dairy price recovery: now?
• Necessity to adjust milk output

+ for buyers comeback

• Thank you very

much and…

• …Order your copy

now !