Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Moderator Welcome Kevin Aitchison CEO of Knight Frank Investment Management & Member of AREF Management Committee
Speakers & Panellists Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Andrew Phipps Mat Oakley Paul Richards Head of EMEA Research and Insight Director, Commercial Research Managing Director Cushman & Wakefield Savills AREF Lord Jonathan Hill Ann Xu Senior Adviser, Corporate Client Associate, CBRE Global Investors Solutions & Member of AREF FutureGen UBS + AREF ESG & Social Impact Committees
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Agenda for today Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q 09.00 Welcome – Kevin Aitchison 09.05 Andrew Phipps, Cushman & Wakefield 09.15 Mat Oakley, Savills 09.25 Paul Richards, AREF 09.35 Panel session & questions featuring: - Lord Jonathan Hill, UBS - Ann Xu, CBRE Global Investors - Andrew Phipps, Matt Oakley, Paul Richards 10.20 Conclusions 10.30 Join us for coffee & networking 11.00 Close
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Poll Question: To answer this poll please search Slido.com in your web-browser and enter the code below: Slido.com Ref:#Z203
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Keynote Andrew Phipps Head of EMEA Research and Insight Cushman & Wakefield
AREF 20:20 Vision Andrew Phipps, Cushman & Wakefield, January 21st 2020
Economic and Political Direction 8
Political background Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 That feeling when you can’t quite believe it Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q It’s mine, it’s all mine…
U.S. Iran tensions rise Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Global political and economic impact
Not going anywhere Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q President…Prime Minister…President…Prime Minister…
Societal change 13
Societal change Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Alignment of desire and opportunity
Demographic shift Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Different generations in the workplace, so what? • Younger generations have a voice and expect to be listened to • The unofficial apprenticeship is no longer viewed as the norm • Expectations and satisfaction levels are mis-aligned
Environmental beliefs Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q The level of acceptance is overwhelming
A changing society Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Evolution creates challenge Password: XLG6qY9q Focus on culture Lower birth rates Environmental Reduced access and experience conscience to home Skill ownership development and continuous Economics learning Increasing Technology Dissociation of urbanisation wealth and home Aging population ownership Demography Routine tasks automated Higher levels of Data driven education workplaces Ability acquire Agile working Informed goods remotely consumers Rising income Multi- inequality generational Constant accommodation connectivity Changing model of ownership
Risks for real estate Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Low risk of recessionary factors in 2020
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Keynote Mat Oakley Director, Commercial Research Savills
Key themes for UK commercial AREF 20:20 Vision Event: Mat Oakley, Savills 20
Brexit has not gone away! 21
3 Trends 22
Some risk- averse investors will return, but what is there to buy? 23
Office prime rental growth: 3 year annual average % pa London City Manchester Cardiff Leeds London office Oxford fundamentals London WE strong Cambridge Bristol Some risk- Time to build? Birmingham averse Reading investors will Edinburgh return, but what is there Glasgow to buy? 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Source: Savills Research 24
London office fundamentals strong Retail Some risk- Time to build? turbulence is averse not over, but investors will good retail return, but now looks what is there cheap to buy? 25
Savills net effective rent change MSCI average rent growth 10% 5% YoY % change to end Q3 2019 0% -5% -4.05% -4.07% -4.10% -7.5% -10% -15% Retail -20% turbulence is not over, but -25% good retail -24.90% -26.8% now looks -30% cheap Shopping Retail Warehouse High Street Centre Source: Savills Research 26
3 Disruptors 27
Rising hunger for long income opportunities meets scarcity 28
Last mile (and last metre) logistics still complicated Rising hunger for long income opportunities meets scarcity 29
Last mile (and last metre) logistics still complicated Rising hunger Uncertainty for long will not income x disappear opportunities meets scarcity 30
My top picks Core Opportunistic • • Re-priced prime retail London offices with where shoppers want to rental growth potential be • Undersupplied regional • office markets High quality offices let to serviced office providers • Urban logistics with potential change of use 31 31
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Paul Richards Managing Director AREF
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 AREF Outlook Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q • Lobbying • Relationship with The Investment Association • Immediate challenges: — Brexit — Liquidity — Social & environmental impact
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #2572 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Panel Session + Q&A To ask questions during this panel session: Search Slido.com into your web-browser and enter the code #Z203
To ask questions during this panel session: Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Search Slido.com into your web-browser and enter the code #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Andrew Phipps Mat Oakley Paul Richards Head of EMEA Research and Insight Director, Commercial Research Managing Director Cushman & Wakefield Savills AREF Lord Jonathan Hill Ann Xu Senior Adviser, Corporate Client Associate, CBRE Global Investors Solutions & Member of AREF FutureGen UBS + AREF ESG & Social Impact Committees
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #2572 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Conclusions
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Poll Question: To answer this poll please search Slido.com in your web-browser and enter the code below: Slido.com Ref:#Z203
Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Slido.com - ref: #2572 Slido.com - ref: #Z203 Login: guestwifi4@client.room Login: guestwifi4@client.room Password: XLG6qY9q Password: XLG6qY9q Thank you Join us for coffee/networking outside
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