SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere 2014 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mar 15, 2023 116 likes •449 views

SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere 2014 weather page: 2015, in the press: if December T stays normal then last 13 years all were among 2014 will be hottest ever records, 14 hottest ever recorded globally 2016

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

2015, in the press: last 13 years all were among 14 hottest ever recorded 2014 weather page: if December T stays “normal” then 2014 will be hottest ever records, globally consequence of global warming:

uneven warming
more extreme weather

2016 one of the hottest ever! 2017 CO2 increasing even though emission stayed flat 2018 one of the hottest ever!

Anomalous Polar Vortex

> extreme cold storms

2019 one of the hottest ever!

CO2 Mauna Loa June 2020: 416.4 ppm

June 2019: 413.9 ppm

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: wikipedia

this implies that we just passed the 1ºC increase compared to pre-industrial age (0.9 – (-0.2) = 1.1ºC) it also shows the dramatic increase in the rate of warming since 2010!

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

as of 2012

this would have given us a 1.5ºC increase by 2100 … from pre-industrial levels it hurts our economy it hurts our economy climate change is a hoax

1997: to stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm emissions must fall to levels of 1990 by 2012

needed 55% of producers to be ratified
2004: ratified after Russia joined; in effect Feb 2005
2007: Australia joined leaving

U.S. only industrial country not to join (has 5% of population but contributes with 25% CO2)

green: agreed light green: developing world red: withdrawn

range: no intention to ratify

grey: no position

CO2 Mauna Loa 1990: 360 ppm

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel

n Climate Change

2000 scientists do research and give input to panel (incl. SIO!)

"for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change."

IPCC and Al Gore receive Nobel Peace Price 2007 http://www.climatecrisis.net > 99% scientists agree that global warming is real

PEW research center survey: 2006: 77% Americans agree 2007: Inconvenient Truth 2009: 57% Americans agree TIME magazine: 2014: 40% Americans strongly agree 57% globally 71% in India

2017 U.S. Tweet of the day: “climate change is a hoax, a real hoax, fake news”

Birch Aquarium: award-winning ‘Feeling the Heat’ exhibit

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

2010: Cancun;
2011: South Africa;
2012: Qatar
2013: Warsaw
2014: Lima
2015: Paris
2016: Marrakesh
2017: Bonn/D
2018: Katowice
2019: Madrid*
2020: ??

*originally planned in

Brazil

issues involved:

cap-and-trade
CO2 vs all GHG
China’s grace period
deforestation

top 3 emitters 2017 (greenhouse gases): China (29.3%) U.S. (13.8%) India (6.6%) Indonesia 3rd by (deforestation)

Indonesia: 85% through deforestation 15% rest 2009: Copenhagen Accord: endorse continuation of Kyoto Protocol global increase in T should be less than 2ºC (compared to pre-industrial) recognize CO2 increase by deforestation

2ºC is more than Kyoto Protocol

China surpassed USA as top emitter in 2009

2017: we will leave “Paris” invest in renewables

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

2015 Paris Agreement: continue Kyoto Protocol in some form as of Oct 2016: 193 parties signed; 110 ratified; went into effect Nov 4, 2016 For the very first time, U.S. is on board….. until 2017 BIGGEST ISSUES: verification that countries fulfill reduction doesn’t go as far as the Kyoto Protocol different countries have different commitments new U.S. administration page will be updated U.S. Tweet of the day: “gonna hurt our economy, hurt bad, real bad. We exit! We’re the greatest” “make American coal great again, real great! Coal is clean energy. Maybe even renewable?” newsclips: 11/08/17 Syria to join climate pact; U.S. only nation out 11/14/17 White House ridiculed at Bonn, Germany climate-change talks

we will not host 2019 meeting

Birch Aquarium 2017: ‘Feeling the Heat’ gone

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

2018: greenhouse emission must be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, and 100% by 2050 Implications: electricity from coal (currently 40 %) must be reduced to 1-7 % renewable energy must increase (currently 20%) to 67 %

we will not host 2019 meeting 2019: we will leave “Paris”; coal is clean

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

we had enough!

source: wikipedia

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

we had enough!

source: wikipedia

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: NOAA

Greenhouse Gases CO2, CH4, NxO, FCs increase radiative forcing of CO2 increases most!

found 11/20/19

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

1993 2000

“Arctic summer ice free soon”

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

“how do we know it’s us?”

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

> CO2; SO2;

mercury

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: IPCC 2014

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: wikipedia/NASA

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: Keller and Blodgett “Natural Hazards” &World Watch Institute

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: IPCC 2014

U.S. government: “make American coal great again!” Reality: collapse despite heavy subsidies

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: IPCC 2014

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

Science News Jun 2018

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: IPCC 2014

2019 all this will happen much sooner! Models were too simple.

ice melts faster
sea level rises faster
Arctic changes faster

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

source: IPCC 2014

this is not going to happen any time soon ... but ... 1 m is to be expected

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

+1m Bangladesh Maldives all atolls!!!! New York Florida KIRIBATI (see homework)

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

H2O sun earth UV IR CH4 N2O O2/O3 CO2 vis

10ppm at 20-25km altitude

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

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SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere

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