ENERDAY 2019 Scenarios for decarbonizing an integrated energy system ENERDAY 2019 - 1 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Underlying research question: Flexibility Definition A power system’s ability to cope with variability and uncertainty in demand and supply Reaction time Energy quantity short-term medium-term long-term flexibility flexibility flexibility Forecast errors Forecasts Fundamentals Electrification of the heat and mobility sector provides new sources, but also additional needs for flexibility ENERDAY 2019 - 2 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Scenario assumptions (preliminary) Neglected climate Current goals Accelerated action transformation • • • Both the 2030 and Goals currently set on a More ambitious goals Emission levels 2050 target are European level are are set and achieved 2030 and 2050 • missed by 5% and achieved 55% in 2030 • • 10% 40% until 2030 98% for 2050 • • 35% until 2030 80% reduction by • 70% until 2050 2050 • • • Slight overall increase Constant final demand Moderate efficiency Final energy for electricity and high gains in electricity and demand temperature heat high temperature heat (excluding • • demand for low demand for low transport sector) temperature heat temperature heat decreases by 20% decreases by 25% • • • Coal phase-out until Coal phase-out until Coal phase-out until Technologies 2045 2040 2035 ENERDAY 2019 - 3 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Applied model framework Input assumptions yearly emission limits final demand for heat, mobility and electricity technology and cost data for renewable and conventional technologies GENeSYS-MOD cost efficient pathways to 2050 in 5-year-steps for the energy system capacities and consumption remaining potentials • • CHP, heat pumps and electric boilers emissions • • electro mobility Biomass • methaniation and electrolysis dynELMOD cost efficient pathways to 2050 in 10-year-steps for the power system capacities generation transmission ENERDAY 2019 - 4 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Spatial resolution of applied models Source: E-Highways (2014) ENERDAY 2019 - 5 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Energy flow, Europe 2030 Accelerated transformation ENERDAY 2019 - 6 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Final electricity demand TWh 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Current goals transformation Current goals transformation Current goals transformation Neglected climate Neglected climate Neglected climate Accelerated Accelerated Accelerated action action action 2015 2030 2050 Original power Electric vehicles Heat pumps Heating high Other mobility Other low heat Power-to-X → rising levels of electrification and gains in efficiency offset each other ENERDAY 2019 - 7 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Demand profiles for Germany, Accelerated transformation GW 120 90 60 30 0 01.01 01.04 01.07 01.10 2020 2050 → electrification greatly increases the volatility of load ENERDAY 2019 - 8 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Installed flexibility technologies GW 540 360 180 0 Neglected climate Current goals transformation Neglected climate Current goals transformation Neglected climate Current goals transformation Accelerated Accelerated Accelerated action action action 2030 2040 2050 DSM from heat pumps DSM from electric vehicles Lithium ion battery Electrolysis + Methanation ENERDAY 2019 - 9 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Conclusion Key findings • Electricity demand from the heat and mobility sector create an additional demand for flexibility, but also provide additional short- and medium-term flexibility • Other technologies become increasingly relevant, if emission constraints exceed the 70% target • Power-to-X becomes a key technology for deep decarbonisation as a source for long- term flexibility (and almost unlimited substitute for fossil fuels in other sectors) Research outlook • Reassessment of scenarios considered, especially within the mobility sector • Integrated modelling of the power and heat sector to identify additional synergies (e.g. within heating networks) ENERDAY 2019 - 10 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Thank You for Your Attention! Leonard Göke Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (TU Berlin) Email: lgo@wip.tu-berlin.de ENERDAY 2019 - 11 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Utilisation of scenarios in the OSMOSE modelling process Input data Scenarios GENeSYS-MOD dynELMOD heat, mobility and power sector only investment power sector stylized dispatch including storage , dispatch DSM, ramping etc. 17 regions and 16 time 99 regions and up to resolution intervals 8.760 time intervals Plausibility check ENERDAY 2019 - 12 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Overview of included technolgies short-term medium-term long-term flexibility flexibility flexibility Thermal power plants Interconnection Pumped Demand Side Management Storage Lithium Ion Flywheel Electrolysis Battery Redox Flow AA-CAES Methanation Battery share of renewables ENERDAY 2019 - 13 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
Frage: Angebot und Nachfrage Flexibilität durch Sektorkopplung, Synergien? Grafiken: Lastprofil DE -> mehr Vola, mehr SL, mehr saisonale Speicherung Energy flow diagram -> flexxen Energy flow diagramm ENERDAY 2019 - 14 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 12.04.2019
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