Decarbonizing Mobility Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer | | Institute of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decarbonizing Mobility Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer | | Institute of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decarbonizing Mobility Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer | | Institute of Science, Technology and Policy GHG Emissions from Transport Source: EASAC policy report 37, March 2019 | | Institute of Science, Technology and Policy Prof. Dr. Thomas

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Institute of Science, Technology and Policy | |

  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer

Decarbonizing Mobility

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GHG Emissions from Transport

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Source: EASAC policy report 37, March 2019

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Growing Travel and Transport Demand

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Source: EASAC policy report 37, March 2019

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§ EU target is to reduce GHG emissions from transport by 60% against the 1990 baseline by 2050 § Decarbonizing supply (electrification, hydrogen, …) § Limiting demand § Road transport, and in particular passenger cars and light-duty vehices, is the biggest challenge in terms of magnitute of emissions and regulatory politics § Biggest supply and demand side challenges and opportunities in urban centers

Challenges and Opportunities

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Switzerland

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Switzerland

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https://www.bafu.admin.ch/bafu/de/home/themen/klima/mitteilungen.msg-id-78720.html

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Switzerland

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Switzerland

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§ Replace internal combustion engines with electric engines (battery-electric vehicles, fuel cell vehices) – it takes about 20 years to renew the current vehicle fleet – currently less than 3% low-carbon vehicle sales in EU § Decarbonize electricity supply while decarbonizing vehicles § Create seamless and high-capacity multi-modal public transport options, one key-faced of which is the last mile - problem § Increase use of non-motorized mobility (bicycles, scooters, walking, etc.), particularly in urban centers

Supply-Side Policy Goals

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§ Reverse common government policy that “curbing mobility is not an option” § Options:

§ Mobility pricing / increasing the cost of mobility across the board § More home-office, more video conferencing § Public awareness campaigns § Shifting demand to low carbon modes of transport (this might limit mobility growth, but not reduce mobility)

Demand-Side Goals

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The Effectiveness – Opposition/Acceptance Dilemma

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Effectiveness (GHG emission cuts) Citzen / consumer opposition

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Which policies are

  • Effective in reaching certain

societal goals

  • Economically efficient (cost-

benefit ratio)

  • Politically feasible
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Let’s Focus on Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), one of they key

  • ptions for decarbonizing individualized mobility

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More and More Electric Cars on Swiss Roads

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer

https://www.watson.ch/leben/auto/154716102-9-grafiken-und-statistiken- zum-elektroauto-in-der-schweiz-2018

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In International Comparison…

Data sources: EAFO, OECD

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… Switzerland Has a Long Way to Go!

Data sources: EEA 2017, EAFO 2017

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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§ Concerns of consumers

§ Higher purchase price (up front investment) § Range / driving distance § Charging (duration, temporal and spatial availability, inconvenience) § Security and environmental concerns § Limited choice of car, model, etc.

§ Weak government incentives in Switzerland

§ Only few cantons use purchase subsidy (e.g. Ticino, Thurgau, Valais) § Very limited tax breaks § Parking privileges for BEV very rare (green zones) § Fairly large public charging network, but little awareness of it

Key Obstacles to BEV Ownership

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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  • 1. Who owns a BEV?
  • 2. Could better information on BEVs and test drives increase

acceptance/attractiveness?

  • 3. How do current BEV owners charge their vehicles, and what are the challenges

in strongly increasing the BEV share in the country’s vehicles fleet?

Some Insights from Our Research at the ISTP

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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§ Survey of all BEV owners and a random sample of non-BEV owners in the cantons of Aargau, Schwyz, Zug und Zürich § Survey in Summer 2018 (Brückmann and Bernauer 2020) § N = 5’325, of 22’627 invited persons

  • 1. Who Owns a BEV?

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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  • 1. Who Owns a BEV?

§ One-person households § Households with more than

  • ne car

§ Higher-income households with home-ownership § Stronger environmental attitudes and tech affinity § Live close to public charging infrastructure § Politically middle-to- left/green position

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Brückmann, Willibald, Blanco 2020

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§ To increase the BEV share strongly, policies serving larger, less affluent households, households with one car, and non-home owners are needed. § Public charging infrastructure needs to be expanded very strongly

§ Our survey research shows strong public support for such expansion, but much less so for BEV purchase subsidies (Brückmann and Bernauer 2020)

  • 1. Who Owns a BEV?

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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§ Effects of

  • 1. Test-driving and information
  • 2. Information
  • n
  • a. Perception of BEV
  • b. Purchasing intentions
  • c. Policy preferences concerning BEVs

summer 2018 autumn 18 - spring 2019 spring 2019 spring 2020

  • 2. Can More Information and Test-Drives Increase Acceptance?

Baseline survey Follow up survey 1 Follow up survey 2 experimental treatment

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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  • 2. Information Treatment

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§ Energy efficiency § Environmental impacts § Range § Charging stations § Charging times § Costs § Comparison to ICE cars § N = 1097

Energieeffizienz

Elektromotoren haben einen Wirkungsgrad von rund 90%, Benzin- und Dieselmotoren einen Wirkungsgrad von rund 30%. Das heisst, dass bei Elektroautos 90% der eingesetzten Energie (Strom) zur Fortbewegung verwendet werden

  • kann. Bei Benzin- oder Dieselautos sind es nur

30% (siehe Bild unten). Elektroautos brauchen somit viel weniger Energie pro Kilometer als Benzin- oder Dieselautos.

Informationen zu Elektroautos

Ladestationen

In der Schweiz wird das Netz öffentlicher Ladestationen immer dichter. Ladestationen sind leicht über Navigationsgerä- te, Apps und im Internet zu

  • finden. Beispiele für Websites

mit Ladestationen sind https://e-mobile.ch/de/elektro-tankstelle-finden

  • der https://chargemap.com/map

Reichweite von Elektroautos

Die Reichweite von Elektroautos ist abhängig von der Kapazität der Batterien. Kompaktere, günstigere Elektroautos haben kleinere Batterien und Reichwei- ten von 200 km im alltäglichen

  • Gebrauch. Grössere und teurere

Elektroautos haben Reichweiten von bis zu 500 km in der Praxis. Dabei beeinflusst der Fahrstil die Reichweite eines Elektroautos, da durch langsame- res und vorrausschauendes Fahren und den mass- vollen Gebrauch von Heizung und Klimaanlage viel Energie gespart werden kann. Zusätzlich kann beim Bremsen und (bergabwärts) Rollen die Batterie wieder aufgeladen werden.

Umweltauswirkungen

CO2-Emissionen sind hauptverantwortlich für den

  • Klimawandel. Der Verkehr trägt rund 30% zu den

gesamten CO2-Emissionen der Schweiz bei. Die CO2-Emissionen von Elektroautos sind über ihre gesamte Lebensdauer gerechnet (Herstellung, Betrieb, Entsorgung) um mindestens 60% gerin- ger als die CO2-Emissionen eines vergleichbaren Benzin- oder Dieselautos. Voraussetzung dafür ist, dass der Strom für Elektroautos aus erneu- erbaren Energiequellen stammt. Dies ist in der Schweiz gut möglich. Zudem stossen Elektroautos keine Abgase aus und belasten dadurch die Luft- qualität nicht. Ausserdem verursachen sie deut- lich weniger Lärm als Benzin- und Dieselautos.

Wirkungsgrad 90% 30%

Ladezeiten

Die Ladezeit eines Elektroautos hängt vom Ladestand, der Kapa- zität der Batterie (in kWh) und der technischen Ausrüstung des Autos und der Ladevorrichtung

  • ab. Der schwächste Faktor in

dieser Kette bestimmt die Lade- dauer. Ladevorrichtung Durchschnittliche Ladedauer um 80% der Batterie zu laden Haushaltssteckdose 8 -14 Std. Ladung zuhause mit Installation einer speziel- len Ladestation 4 Std. Öffentliche Ladestation 1 Std. Öffentliche Schnellladestation Unter 1 Std.

Beispiele für Ladezeiten

Schild für Elektroauto- Ladestation auf Nationalstrassen

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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  • 2. Test Drives

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Information and Test-Driving § Printed information § 48h test drive (starting with a brief intro), N=215 § Use as if test-driver’s own car § Control group received neither information nor did they test-drive, N=1196

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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§ Test-driving: large majority considers it pleasant or very pleasant § Most test-drivers charged the car, most of them at the household socket, and charging was experienced as very easy or easy § Information and testdriving significantly increased knowledge on BEVs and contributed to a more positive perception of key characteristics of BEVs § 17% express intention to buy a BEV as their next car (from 2020 onwards), but the experimental treatments have no effect on such intentions § A clear majority is in favour of state policies for promoting BEV adoption, though the experimental treatments as such do not affect these policy preferences

Some Key Findings

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Based on a survey experiment with ICE and BEV car owners in Switzerland (N=5’325) we re-assess the presumably stronger support for pull measures (positive incentives) by studying whether such support is (negatively) affected by revealing the cost implications in terms of means for funding these policy measures (e.g. charging infrastructure, purchase subsidies). We also examine support for policies to promote EVs both amongst non-EV and EV holders. Our hypothesis is that EV holders are likely to be more supportive of such policies, even when cost implications become apparent. We find that support for pull measures, which is high amongst non-EV holders, and even higher among technology adopters (EV holders), remains stable even when policy funding is revealed. This suggests that more ambitious pull measures in this area are politically feasible, even more so as the share of EV- adopters increases. (Brückmann and Bernauer 2020)

What Public Policies for BEV Do People Prefer?

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§ Postal invitation to all BEV owners in cantons Aargau, Schwyz, Zug und Zürich § N=1176 (June - November 2018, ca. 45% response rate) (Brückmann und Bernauer 2020) § Key findings:

§ Most BEV owners charge quite frequently also when battery is far from empty § Most BEV owners charge at home (87%) § Moving beyond the current niche market requires a massive build-up of charging infrastructure in public parking zones and in rental buildings. § There is an emerging equity issue if public policies keep pushing people towards BEV and an increasing gap appears between those who rent their home and home owners with respect to charging opportunities, convenience, and costs.

  • 3. Charging Behavior

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  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Bernauer
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§ Limiting or even reducing mobility is a political minefield. § Mobility behavior is likely to quickly bounce back to pre-Covid levels once restrictions are lifted. § Some very modest policy-interventions (e.g. mobility pricing) might help in slowing the growth in mobility (km per capita and year). Limiting urban sprawl (urban densification) may also contribute to limiting mobility and carbon footprint per capita. § However, a transition to low-carbon transport over the next 10-20 years is likely to be the politically most feasible option. One area of current controversy here is whether urban policies should push towards replacing ICE with BEV or towards car-free households using public transport and non-motorized means.

Some Concluding Thoughts

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