New integrated scenarios New integrated scenarios approach & - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

New integrated scenarios New integrated scenarios approach & Representative approach & Representative Concentration Pathw ays Concentration Pathw ays (RCPs RCPs) ) ( Steven Rose (EPRI) – – representing many representing many Steven Rose (EPRI) September 15, 2009 September 15, 2009 Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium Meeting, Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium Meeting, Tsukuba, Japan Tsukuba, Japan

New integrated scenarios approach New integrated scenarios approach

New integrated scenarios New integrated scenarios approach approach   In response to In response to… …   Scientific and policy interest in exploring a broader range of potential climates Scientific and policy interest in exploring a broader range of p otential climates and uncertainties and uncertainties   New opportunities arising from the evolution of modeling New opportunities arising from the evolution of modeling   Need for improved compatibility & consistency of results across research Need for improved compatibility & consistency of results across research   Need for greater integration and coordination between research communities ommunities Need for greater integration and coordination between research c   Need to be able to work concurrently Need to be able to work concurrently   …the scenarios related scientific communities have designed a blu … the scenarios related scientific communities have designed a blueprint eprint for a new scenarios development process for a new scenarios development process   Process starts with a set of representative greenhouse gas concentration ntration Process starts with a set of representative greenhouse gas conce and radiative radiative forcing pathways ( forcing pathways (RCPs RCPs = Representative Concentration = Representative Concentration and Pathways) Pathways)   RCPs RCPs   Facilitate the characterization of an expansive climate space Facilitate the characterization of an expansive climate space   Create new opportunities for improving modeling of climate change, impacts, e, impacts, Create new opportunities for improving modeling of climate chang and mitigation and mitigation

New integrated scenarios approach and RCPs RCPs New integrated scenarios approach and (Representative Concentration Pathw ays) (Representative Concentration Pathw ays)

RCPs – – a scientific community a scientific community RCPs initiative, the w ork of many initiative, the w ork of many   Genesis: Aspen, CO 2006 (Meehl et al. 2007; Hibbard et al., 2007 Genesis: Aspen, CO 2006 (Meehl et al. 2007; Hibbard et al., 2007) )   Joint IAM- -CMC CMC- -IAV development and vetting and presentation to IPCC (Moss et IAV development and vetting and presentation to IPCC (Moss et Joint IAM al, 2008) al, 2008)   Moss, Richard, Mustafa Babiker Moss, Richard, Mustafa Babiker, Sander Brinkman, Eduardo , Sander Brinkman, Eduardo Calvo Calvo, Tim Carter, Jae Edmonds, Ismail , Tim Carter, Jae Edmonds, Ismail Elgizouli, Seita Emori, Lin , Seita Emori, Lin Erda Erda, Kathy Hibbard, Roger Jones, Mikiko Kainuma, Jessica Kelleher, , Kathy Hibbard, Roger Jones, Mikiko Kainuma, Jessica Kelleher, Jean Jean Elgizouli Francois Lamarque, Martin Manning, Ben Matthews, Jerry Meehl, Leo Meyer, John Mitchell, Nebojsa Francois Lamarque, Martin Manning, Ben Matthews, Jerry Meehl, Le o Meyer, John Mitchell, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Brian O’ ’Neill, Ramon Neill, Ramon Pichs Pichs, Keywan , Keywan Riahi Riahi, Steven Rose, Paul Runci, Ron Stouffer, Detlef , Steven Rose, Paul Runci, Ron Stouffer, Detlef Nakicenovic, Brian O van Vuuren, John Weyant, Tom Wilbanks van Vuuren, John Weyant, Tom Wilbanks, Jean Pascal van , Jean Pascal van Ypersele Ypersele, Monika , Monika Zurek Zurek, 2008. , 2008. Towards Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies: IPCC , and Response Strategies: IPCC New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts Expert Meeting Report, 19– Expert Meeting Report, 19 –21 September, 2008, 21 September, 2008, Noordwijkerhout Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands , The Netherlands , , www.ipcc.ch www.ipcc.ch. .   Evaluation of the robustness of IMAGE 2.6 for RCP3 Evaluation of the robustness of IMAGE 2.6 for RCP3- -PD (Weyant et al., 2009) PD (Weyant et al., 2009)   RCP data preparation (van Vuuren et al., being finalized, draft RCP data preparation (van Vuuren et al., being finalized, draft available) available)   Detlef P. van Vuuren, Johannes Feddema Detlef P. van Vuuren, Johannes Feddema, Jean , Jean- -Francois Lamarque, Keywan Francois Lamarque, Keywan Riahi Riahi, Steven Rose, Steve , Steven Rose, Steve Smith, Kathy Hibbard, in preparation, “ “ Work plan for data exchange between the Integrated Assessment Work plan for data exchange between the Integrated Assessment Smith, Kathy Hibbard, in preparation, and Climate Modeling community in support of Phase- and Climate Modeling community in support of Phase -0 of scenario analysis for climate change 0 of scenario analysis for climate change assessment (Representative Community Pathways)” ” assessment (Representative Community Pathways)   Dozens more across all the data components (emissions, land- Dozens more across all the data components (emissions, land -use, 2300 extension, use, 2300 extension, concentrations) concentrations)   Many meetings and teleconferences along the way Many meetings and teleconferences along the way

RCP selection process RCP selection process (see Moss et al., 2008) (see Moss et al., 2008)   Defined requirements Defined requirements   Desirable characteristics for RCPs RCPs Desirable characteristics for   Desirable types of RCPs Desirable types of RCPs   Identified candidates Identified candidates   Selected RCPs RCPs Selected

Four Types of desirable RCPs RCPs Four Types of desirable

Selected RCPs RCPs are representative are representative Selected Represent 10-90 th emissions Span RF scenarios 120 10 9 MES-A2R 8.5 MES-A2R 8.5 100 8 80 Radiative Forcing (W/m 2 ) 7 Emissions (GtCO2) 6 AIM 6.0 60 5 AIM 6.0 MiniCAM 4.5 40 4 3 20 MiniCAM 4.5 IMAGE 2.6 2 0 IMAGE 2.6 1 -20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

RCP data requirements – – full set of full set of RCP data requirements radiative forcing & AQ components forcing & AQ components radiative

RCP data hand- -shake shake – – an IAM an IAM - -ESM ESM - - RCP data hand inventory- -chemistry collaboration chemistry collaboration inventory   IAM teams need to round- -out their published scenarios to satisfy out their published scenarios to satisfy IAM teams need to round the full data request for climate and atmospheric chemistry the full data request for climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling modeling   Harmonize definitions and historic data (emissions and land- -use) use) Harmonize definitions and historic data (emissions and land   Provide additional detail for emissions Provide additional detail for emissions   Provide additional detail for land use & land cover change Provide additional detail for land use & land cover change   Extend scenarios to 2300 – Extend scenarios to 2300 – currently only 2100 currently only 2100   Consistency and coordination between the communities required Consistency and coordination between the communities required and essential to increase comparability and provide a smooth and essential to increase comparability and provide a smooth transition from historic to future periods transition from historic to future periods   Coordination events: Coordination events:   February 2008, Washington, DC February 2008, Washington, DC   May 2008, Paris May 2008, Paris   Summer 2008, Snowmass, CO Summer 2008, Snowmass, CO   September 2008, Vienna September 2008, Vienna   Spring 2009, Hamburg Spring 2009, Hamburg   Summer 2009, Snowmass, CO Summer 2009, Snowmass, CO

Harmonized historical emissions Harmonized historical emissions Reactive gases & aerosol precursors) ( Reactive gases & aerosol precursors) ( Unique compilation of inventories Unique compilation of inventories Historical emissions: 1850 – – 2000 2000 Historical emissions: 1850 With sectoral With sectoral disaggregation disaggregation   Surface Transportation Surface Transportation   International Shipping International Shipping   Aviation Aviation   Power plants, energy conversion, Power plants, energy conversion, extraction extraction   Solvents Solvents   Waste (landfills, waste water, Waste (landfills, waste water, non- -energy incineration) energy incineration) non   Industry (combustion and Industry (combustion and processing) processing)   Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial   Ag. waste burning on fields Ag. waste burning on fields   Agricultural (animals, risce Agricultural (animals, risce, soil) , soil)   Grassland burning Grassland burning   Forest burning Forest burning