AIM application on GHG stabilization scenarios Workshop on GHG - - PDF document

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Matsuoka and Kainuma 1

AIM application on GHG stabilization scenarios

Yuzuru MATSUOKA Kyoto University, Japan and Mikiko KAINUMA National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios Tsukuba, Japan on January 22-23, 2004

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AIM model family

AIM/Material AIM/IMPACT Global version Country version AIM/Topdown (Global Energy, Land-use and Economic models) AIM/Enduse AIM/Country AIM/Local

AIM-Linkage

AIM/CLIMATE

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

• AIM is composed with

various models and connected with hard/soft linkage

• Global, Country and regional

versions exist

• Developed and supported

by International collaborating teams in Asian countries

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AIM model family

AIM/Material AIM/IMPACT Global version Country version AIM/Topdown (Global Energy, Land-use and Economic models) AIM/Enduse AIM/Country AIM/Local

AIM-Linkage

AIM/CLIMATE

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

• Bottom-up type engineering

models

• Japan, China, India, Korea,

and other Asian country studies and regional studies

• Coupled with county level

high resolution emission inventories

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AIM model family

AIM/Material AIM/IMPACT Global version Country version AIM/Topdown (Global Energy, Land-use and Economic models) AIM/Enduse AIM/Country AIM/Local

AIM-Linkage

AIM/CLIMATE

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

• A model which couples economic

CGE approach and engineering bottom-up approach

• One regional model for a country

environment, energy, and material problems

• Applied to Japan, China, and

India

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AIM model family

AIM/Material AIM/IMPACT Global version Country version AIM/Topdown (Global Energy, Land-use and Economic models) AIM/Enduse AIM/Country AIM/Local

AIM-Linkage

AIM/CLIMATE

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

• Combined models for

analyzing Global long- term climate stabilization scenarios

• Soft link with

AIM/Enduse, AIM/Material, and detailed climate models, e.g. GCM and RegCM

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Abstract of AIM/Topdown Abstract of AIM/Topdown

• Type: Multi-regional, multi sector CGE,

sequential equilibrium

• Programmed with GAMS/MPSGE
• Year period: 1990-2100
• Regions: 21 regions
• Production Sectors: 13 sectors
• Energy depletion, electricity mix
• Several extended and modified version

are developing, e.g. AIM/CGE(Asia).

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Structure of AIM/Topdown

Fuel sectors

Power generation sectors

Non-energy Sectors

Government Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Some features Simple cohort structure of stocks Investments are determined with rate

• f return and

previous preference Logit type share preference of energy in order to keep energy balance in trade and market electricity production by various generation methods Resource vs. cost functions are supplied for each region

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Regional Aggregation of AIM 21 regions

JPN Japan AUS Australia NZL New Zealand CAN Canada USA United States of America EUR West Europe FSU Former Soviet Union CHN China HKG Hong Kong IDI India MEA Middle East and North Africa KOR Republic of Korea TWN Taiwan SGP Singapore IDN Indonesia MYS Malaysia PHL Philippines THA Thailand LAM Latin America SSA Sub Saharan Africa ROW Rest of the World

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Sectors in AIM/Topdown Sectors in AIM/Topdown

1 COL

Coal production

8 AGR

Agriculture 2 GAS Natural gas production 9 FRS Forestry 3 CRU Crude oil production 10 LVK Livestock 4 OIL Refined oil products 11 EIS Energy Intensive Industries 5 RNW Renewable energy supply 12 OTH Other Industries 6 ELE Electricity and heat production with oil, coal, gas, hydo, nuc, solar, biomass subsectors 13 SER Service 7 TRN Transport

13 production sectors and 8 production sub- sectors, 2 final demand sectors

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Assumptions for experiments

• Regional population and GDP changes follow SRES B2
• Global CO2 emission to achieve 450, 550 and 650 ppm

stabilization after 2150, calculated with AIM/SSG

• Contraction and Convergence approach for burden

sharing, i.e.

• Per capita CO2 emission convergence after 2050
• Annex B: Kyoto protocol till 2012 and start

convergence linearly to 2050 target

• Non annex B: After 2015, each region joins

convergence when the emission surpasses the per capita CO2 emission permit

• Carbon trade market is opened for capped regions

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Climate and Impact modules of this calculation

• CO2 concentration with AIM/SSG

(Stabilization Scenario Generator): Simplified carbon cycle model based on Joos model

• Radiative forcing expression based on IPCC

report (WG1, 2001)

• Upwelling diffusion model for energy balance
• Spatial pattern scaling of climate change with

IPCC/DDC’s GCM library

• Country level aggregated version of

AIM/Impact for impact analysis

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Frame of impact estimation

Global mean temperature changes Spatial data of future climate Spatial pattern of climate change provided by GCM

Global mean temperature increase relative to 1990 value (oC)

• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year

• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Reference WRE 550 WGI 550 MID 550 Reference WRE 550 WGI 550 MID 550

5 10 15 20 25 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year CO2 Emission (GtC) WRE550 WGI550 MID550 REF

Emission scenarios

AIM/Climate AIM/Impact

Spatial estimation of climate change impact

R e f e r e n c e W R E 5 5 W G I 5 5 M I D 5 5

• 100
• 90
• 80
• 70
• 60
• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

Change of productivity (%) Scenario M y a n m a r C a m b

• d

i a M a l a y s i a P h i l i p p i n e s T h a i l a n d L a

• P

D R B a n g l a d e s h N e p a l V i e t N a m S r i L a n k a I n d i a I n d

• n

e s i a B h u t a n T a i w a n K

• r

e a D P R C h i n a K

• r

e a R e p u b l i c J a p a n R e f e r e n c e W R E 5 5 W G I 5 5 M I D 5 5

• 100
• 90
• 80
• 70
• 60
• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10
• 100
• 90
• 80
• 70
• 60
• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

Change of productivity (%) Scenario M y a n m a r C a m b

• d

i a M a l a y s i a P h i l i p p i n e s T h a i l a n d L a

• P

D R B a n g l a d e s h N e p a l V i e t N a m S r i L a n k a I n d i a I n d

• n

e s i a B h u t a n T a i w a n K

• r

e a D P R C h i n a K

• r

e a R e p u b l i c J a p a n

Country-wide impact

Aggregation Spatial pattern Scaling

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CO2 emission from energy consumption 5 10 15 20 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year CO2 emission (GtC/y) BaU 450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

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CO2 emission from energy consumption, 450ppm target

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year CO 2 e m ission (G tC/y)

JPN AUS NZL USA CAN EUR FSU TWN KOR HKG SGP CHN IDI IDN MYS PHL THA LAM MEA SSA ROW

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year P rim ar y e ne rgy (E J /y) Biomass Solar Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Oil

Primary energy supply

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year Primary energy (EJ/y) Biomass Solar Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Oil

BaU scenario 550 ppm scenario

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Required CO2 emission changes in year 2050 compared with 1990

• 74
• 76
• 59
• 82
• 75
• 64
• 43
• 48
• 50
• 60
• 70

77 567 464 94 839 133 134 193 944 4

• 57
• 62
• 32
• 70
• 58
• 40
• 8
• 13
• 20
• 33
• 50

193 834 217 289 288 386 72

• 53
• 57
• 32
• 67
• 55
• 34

2

• 5
• 20
• 33
• 45

222 926 253 324 326 434 89

• 200

200 400 600 800 1000

JPN AUS NZL USA CAN EUR TWN KOR HKG SGP FSU CHN IDI IDN MYS PHL THA LAM MEA SSA ROW

CO2 emission change (%)

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

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CO2 emission changes in year 2050 compared with 1990

• 64
• 68
• 46
• 55
• 57
• 58

135 128 50 129

• 62

25 496 277 159 315 73 108 122 412 1

• 50
• 54
• 32
• 36
• 39
• 41

224 218 110 210

• 42

101 480 268 253 295 211 307 334 405 46

• 47
• 51
• 19
• 32
• 35
• 37

246 240 130 223

• 35

129 477 265 267 285 237 304 331 403 59

• 100

100 200 300 400 500 600

JPN AUS NZL USA CAN EUR TWN KOR HKG SGP FSU CHN IDI IDN MYS PHL THA LAM MEA SSA ROW

CO2 emission change (%) 450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

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Trade of CO2 emission, Japan

• 0.035
• 0.03
• 0.025
• 0.02
• 0.015
• 0.01
• 0.005

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year CO2 trade (GtC)

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

Trade of CO2 emission

Trade of CO2 emission, West Europe

• 0.15
• 0.1
• 0.05

0.05 0.1 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year CO2 trade (GtC)

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

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Trade of CO2 emission, from LDC to DC

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year CO2 trade (GtC)

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

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World Economic Production Change

• 2.5
• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year GDP change (%) 450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

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Regional GDP change

GDP change, Japan

• 0.3
• 0.25
• 0.2
• 0.15
• 0.1
• 0.05

0.05 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year GDP change (%)

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

GDP change, West Europe

• 0.9
• 0.8
• 0.7
• 0.6
• 0.5
• 0.4
• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year GDP change (%)

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

GDP change, India

1 2 3 4 5 6 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year GDP change (%)

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

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GDP changes in 2050

• 0.22
• 1.52
• 0.17
• 2.22
• 1.90
• 0.76
• 1.40
• 3.02
• 0.90
• 0.52
• 3.53
• 3.24

1.19

• 0.56
• 3.07

0.96 0.50 0.91

• 2.42
• 0.29
• 2.39
• 0.09
• 1.12

0.12

• 1.81
• 1.42
• 0.36
• 1.26
• 2.72
• 0.82
• 1.13
• 2.59
• 1.67

0.78

• 0.50
• 1.86

0.59 0.46 0.12

• 1.29
• 0.20
• 0.94
• 0.02
• 0.98

0.18

• 1.51
• 1.22
• 1.03
• 2.24
• 0.70
• 0.92
• 2.23
• 1.29

0.70

• 0.43
• 1.37

0.53 0.58 0.11

• 1.11
• 0.18
• 0.61
• 0.23
• 4
• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2

JPN NZL CAN TWN HKG FSU IDI MYS THA MEA ROW

GDP change (%)

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm

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Change of malarious area in 2070’s

50 100 150 200 250 Bangladesh Bhutan Burma China India Indonesia Japan Kampuchea Korea-PDR Korea-Republic Lao_PDR Malaysia Nepal Philippines Sri_Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Change of population in malarious area (%) BaU 650ppm 550ppm 450ppm

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Wheat productivity change in 2070’s

• 120
• 100
• 80
• 60
• 40
• 20

Bangladesh Bhutan Burma China India Indonesia Japan Kampuchea Korea-PDR Korea-Republic Lao_PDR Malaysia Nepal Philippines Sri_Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Wheat productivity change (%)

B2 650ppm 550ppm 450ppm

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Final remarks

• Introduce recent application of AIM for

Stabilization scenarios, especially on per capita convergence approach.

• In case of convergence year is 2050, DC must reduce

60-80% (450ppm) compared with 1990 emissions.

• In case of full-scale

carbon trading, required domestic reduction becomes 60%

450ppm 550ppm 650ppm Japan 26(36) 43(50) 47(53) USA 18(45) 30(64) 33(68) West Europe 36(42) 60(59) 66(63) China 177(125) 293(201) 322(229) India 667(596) 1106(580) 1214(577) Emission permits in 2050 % of 1990 emission. ( ) is net actual emission considering carbon trading and sink

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Final remarks (continued)

• World economic losses of these reduction are 1.2-

3% in the middle of this century.

• Some regions loss more, up to 4%, and some

regions gain mainly caused by carbon trading

• Impacts decrease substantially by these

mitigation effort, and their examples were shown.

• The extension of this approach to multi-gas

reduction will also introduced by Dr.Fujino, continuously, and as for impact by Dr.Takahashi, tomorrow