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Multi- -gas Model Analysis on gas Model Analysis on Multi stabilization scenarios stabilization scenarios Junichi Fujino NIES, Japan The 9th AIM International Workshop; 12-13, March 2004 National Institute for Environmental Studies,

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Multi Multi-

  • gas Model Analysis on

gas Model Analysis on stabilization scenarios stabilization scenarios

Junichi Fujino

NIES, Japan

The 9th AIM International Workshop; 12-13, March 2004 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

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AIM model components AIM model components for multi for multi-

  • gas study

gas study

  • AIM/CGE: Long-term scenario of Multi-gas

– Top-down economic global model – Recursive dynamics CGE model – Multi-regional, multi-sectoral, multi-gas model

  • AIM/Enduse: Detailed Sketch of Multi-gas

– Technology detailed bottom-up model – AIM/Enduse [country], AIM/Enduse [global]

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Brazil Argentina India South Africa Indonesia Ukraine Australia France China Russia Spain Canada Mexico Italy UK U.S. % CO2 % non-CO2

1997 GHG Emissions of selected countries

CO2 Fuel/ cement 55% CO2 LUCF 19% CH4 16% N2O 9% F-gases 1% Total 11,100 MMTCE

2000 Global Net GHG Emissions

Data source: USEPA (MMTCE: Million Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Global Biofuel combustion Other Waste water Solid waste Manure Enteric fermentation

Rice cultivation Biomass burning

Natural gas Oil Coal Energy Agriculture Waste

Global CH4 Emissions in 2000

CH4 Emissions (MMTCE)

Data source: USEPA

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Basic framework of AIM/CGE Basic framework of AIM/CGE

  • Type: Top-down, CGE, recursive dynamics
  • Program：

GTAP-EG/GAMS/MPSGE

  • Database：

GTAP ver.5(1997), IEA

  • Target Year: 2100
  • Target Region: 18 regions
  • Target Sector: 13 sectors
  • Non-CO2 gas abatement
  • (Land use: use SRES/B2(AIM) scenario)
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Sectors of AIM/CGE Sectors of AIM/CGE

Livestock LVK 7 Service SER 13 Agriculture AGR 6 Transport T_T 12 Crude oil CRU 5 Other Industry OIN 11 Coal transformation COL 4 Energy Intensive Industry EII 10 Refined oil products OIL 3 Fishing FSH 9 Electricity and heat ELE 2 Forestry FRS 8 Natural gas works GAS 1

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Structure of AIM/CGE model

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

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Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACs) for CH4

  • 50

50 100 150 200

  • 50

50 150 250 350 450 CH4 reduction Marginal Abatement Cost ($/TCE)

Discount rate = 5%

World in 2010

Data source: USEPA

CES function

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Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

2100

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

2030…

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

2020 2010

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

Radiative Forcing/Temperature raise Radiative Forcing/Temperature raise constraint and dynamic recursive model constraint and dynamic recursive model

Simple Climate Model Based on Joos model (AIM/SSG)

GHG emissions Emission path to satisfy stabilization target Other gases: SOx, NOx BB+FF

2000

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

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Stabilization scenarios Stabilization scenarios

Modeler’s reference (B2-like) (1) BaU Stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m^2 by 2150 relative to pre-Industrial times (2) Long-term stabilization scenarios (2-1) CO2 only (2-2) multi gas global mean temperature change to an average decadal rate of 0.20ºC (3) Long-term stabilization scenarios with rate of temperature change (3-1) CO2 only (3-2) multi gas

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Calculation flow with AIM models Calculation flow with AIM models

recursive dynamic CGE AIM/CGE simple climate model AIM/SSG set BaU case propose emission path

  • f CO2

(temperature constraint) propose emission path

  • f CO2,CH4,N2O

by GWP basket (temperature constraint) calculate scenario calculate scenario BaU CO2 only multi gas

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2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 6 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 A n t h r

  • p
  • g

e n i c G H G e m i s s i

  • n

s ( G t C

  • e

q / y r ) C O 2 C H 4 N 2 O C O 2 ( B a U ) C H 4 ( B a U ) N 2 O ( B a U ) 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 6 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 A n t h r

  • p
  • g

e n i c G H G e m i s s i

  • n

s ( G t C

  • e

q / y r ) C O 2 C H 4 N 2 O C O 2 ( B a U ) C H 4 ( B a U ) N 2 O ( B a U ) 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 6 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 A n t h r

  • p
  • g

e n i c G H G e m i s s i

  • n

s ( G t C

  • e

q / y r ) C O 2 C H 4 N 2 O

Anthropogenic Anthropogenic GHG emissions GHG emissions

BaU CO2 only multi gas

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Radiative forcing and Radiative forcing and future CO future CO2

2 emission for stabilization

emission for stabilization

2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Radiative Forcing (W/m2) CO2 emission (Gt-C/yr) CO2 emission BaU multi gas CO2 only Radiative Forcing CO2 only BaU multi gas

4.5W/m2

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GHG reduction rate GHG reduction rate

  • 1

% % 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 6 % 7 % 8 % 9 % 2 0 2 2 0 2 4 0 2 6 0 2 8 0 2 1 G H G r e d u c t i

  • n

r a t e t

  • B

a U C O 2 C O 2

  • n

l y C O 2 m u l t i g a s C H 4 C O 2

  • n

l y C H 4 m u l t i g a s N 2 O C O 2

  • n

l y N 2 O m u l t i g a s

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Economic impact Economic impact

2 , 4 , 6 , 8 , 1 , 1 2 , 1 4 , 1 6 , 1 8 , 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1 G D P ( 1 b i l . 1 9 9 7 U S $ ) B a U C O 2

  • n

l y m u l t i g a s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1 C a r b

  • n

p r i c e ( U S $ / t C ) C O 2

  • n

l y m u l t i g a s

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Bottom Up Modeling Approach for Bottom Up Modeling Approach for Non CO2 Gases: An Overview Non CO2 Gases: An Overview

Bottom Up analysis using the AIM/Enduse model

  • AIM/Enduse models energy and materials

through detailed representation of technologies

  • Based on a linear optimization framework where

system cost is minimized under several demand and supply constraints

  • The model is being structured to include Non

CO2 gas emission sectors and linking to removal processes

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Framework of the AIM/Enduse Model

Energy Energy Technology Energy Service

  • Oil
  • Coal
  • Gas
  • Solar
  • (Electricity)
  • Boiler
  • Power generation
  • Blast furnace
  • Air conditioner
  • Automobile
  • Heating
  • Lighting
  • Steel products
  • Cooling
  • Transportation

Energy Database Technology Database

  • Employees
  • Lifestyle
  • Energy type
  • Energy price
  • Energy constraints
  • CO2 emission factor
  • Technology price
  • Energy consumption
  • Service supplied
  • Share
  • Lifetime

Socio-economic Scenario

Technology

Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions

Service Demand

  • Industrial Structure
  • Economic Growth
  • Population Growth

Energy Energy Technology Energy Service

  • Oil
  • Coal
  • Gas
  • Solar
  • (Electricity)
  • Oil
  • Coal
  • Gas
  • Solar
  • (Electricity)
  • Boiler
  • Power generation
  • Blast furnace
  • Air conditioner
  • Automobile
  • Boiler
  • Power generation
  • Blast furnace
  • Air conditioner
  • Automobile
  • Heating
  • Lighting
  • Steel products
  • Cooling
  • Transportation
  • Heating
  • Lighting
  • Steel products
  • Cooling
  • Transportation

Energy Database Technology Database

  • Employees
  • Lifestyle
  • Energy type
  • Energy price
  • Energy constraints
  • CO2 emission factor
  • Technology price
  • Energy consumption
  • Service supplied
  • Share
  • Lifetime

Socio-economic Scenario

Technology

Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions

Service Demand

  • Industrial Structure
  • Economic Growth
  • Population Growth
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Policy Scenario

GDP, population growth rate Productivity, technology improvement rate Energy resource depletion, development GHG emission control Environmental conditions Japan China, India USA, Canada EU Brazil, Argentine Other region/country

Global market AIM/Enduse[global]

Global Enduse Model

Model Output

Demand and supply

  • f industrial commodities,

service, energy, and so on Introduction of productive, emission control, env Protection technology Emissions of GHG, air pollution, waste and so on Trade effect on service, technology, environment Cost for production, technology diffusion, environmental measures

Policy-maker

Policy implication

Equity on emission burden CDM effect of developing countries Global and local E3 by trade Sustainable development

Region (country) CGE model

commodity, energy service Demand and supply

Energy supply Energy conversion Secondary energy Industrial sector Service equipment Residential/ Transport sector Service equipment Final service Final service Service demand Energy equipment stock

cost, lifetime, energy efficiency

Social/Economic framework

population, GDP Ind/agr production transport demand

GHG emissions

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Key issues of non Key issues of non-

  • CO2 gas

CO2 gas abatement technology options abatement technology options

  • To evaluate ancillary benefit of non-CO2 gas

abatement technology options

– Energy recovery from CH4 related technology options – Substitute fertilizer with organic one to reduce N2O and for energy saving – Energy saving with non-F refrigerator

  • How to diffuse agriculture related options

– Dispersed emission sources – Regional specific situation – Impact of global warming on agriculture sector

  • To evaluate CDM potentials
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Final remarks Final remarks

  • Develop global AIM/CGE model to evaluate multi-

gas mitigation options for stabilization scenarios and estimate economic impact w/wo non-CO2 gas mitigation options.

  • We are now building up technology bottom-up model

to evaluate the possibility of multi-gas mitigation

  • ptions and potential of CDM.
  • Soft linkage between economy top-down model and

technology bottom-up model will be examined.