GHG reductions potentials and GHG reductions potentials and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

GHG reductions potentials and GHG reductions potentials and mitigation costs in world regions mitigation costs in world regions

The 13th AIM International Workshop The 13th AIM International Workshop 16 16-

• 18, February 200

18, February 2007 7 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies Tatsuya Hanaoka, Yuko Kanamori, Mikiko Kainuma Kyoto University Yuzuru Matsuoka, Osamu Akashi, Tomoko Hasegawa Mizuho Information and Research Institute Go Hibino, Kazuya Fujiwara

Development of Development of Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] ] presentaiton presentaiton outline

• utline

1.

• 1. Overview of Global

Overview of Global Enduse Enduse model model 2.

• 2. Issues & Progress

Issues & Progress

• 3. Results in world regions by using the
• 3. Results in world regions by using the

Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] Database ] Database GHG mitigation potentials and estimate marginal GHG mitigation potentials and estimate marginal abatement costs in world regions. abatement costs in world regions.

• Comparison of region

Comparison of region-

• wise & sector

wise & sector-

• wise

wise reduction potentials and reduction costs reduction potentials and reduction costs

Overview of Overview of Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] ]

◆

Target Regions Target Regions : 23 geographical world regions 23 geographical world regions

◆

Time Horizon Time Horizon : 2000 2000 – – 2050 2050

◆

Target Gas Target Gas : CO2, CH4, N2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs HFCs, , PFCs PFCs, SF6 , SF6 (expansion of (expansion of GHGs GHGs to BC, OC, SO2, to BC, OC, SO2, NOx NOx, NMVOC, NH3, etc) , NMVOC, NH3, etc)

◆

Target Sectors Target Sectors : multiple sectors multiple sectors (Power generation / Industry / Residential / (Power generation / Industry / Residential / Commercial / Commercial / Transport / Agriculture / F Transport / Agriculture / F-

• gas emissions sector

gas emissions sector ) ) Type : Regional Bottom Type : Regional Bottom-

• up optimization model with detail technology

up optimization model with detail technology selection framework selection framework Components: Components: Regional energy enduse module coupled with

• Regional energy resource module
• International energy, basic materials balance module
• Regional macro-economy and energy service demand module

Global economic model

Trade matrix DB Trade cost DB Macro-Economic model Industry Residential / Commercial Transportation Agriculture Non-Agriculture (CH 4 /N 2 O) F-gas emission Resource model Resource reserve & cost DB

23 regions

Enduse model

Energy resource price Resource mining Resource price Energy price Goods/service price Goods/service export/import Goods/service production Energy demand Electricity price, Emission factor Non-CO2 Trend model GDP，POP Energy conversion Energy service demand Goods/service production Technology option DB Non-CO2 drivers DB

Overview of Overview of Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] ]

• Mr. Akashi
• Mr. Hibino
• Mr. Fujiwara
• Dr. Kanamori

Dr.Hanaoka, Ms.Hasegawa

Progress and Issues Progress and Issues

• Overall

– Updated data of driving forces and used the latest international statistical data. – Developed database of technology options

• Progresses and developments

– Expanded target service: Cement service in industry sector (preliminary done) – Developed global economic model (Trade Balance Module of Energy, Materials and Food) and regional macro-economic model (Regional macro-economy and energy service demand module) and estimated steel production in 23 regions (preliminary done) – Developed global agriculture model (preliminary done) – Re-arranging (and adjusting) IEA Energy Balance in residential and commercial sector (On-going) – Considering the new approach how to estimate service demands in residential and commercial sector (On-going) – Expanding target GHGs such as BC, OC SO2 etc. (On-going) and so on

• Preliminary analysis

– Estimated reduction potentials in 21 regions as the preliminary version

Results of reduction potentials Results of reduction potentials by using the by using the Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] Database ] Database

Target year : 2020 2020 Discount rate:

• High discount rate case:

High discount rate case:

• Industry, Transport, Residential & Commertial :33%/year
• Power generation: 10%/year
• Agriculture, MSW, Fgas: 5％/year
• Low discount rate case: 5%/year

Low discount rate case: 5%/year Definition of reduction potential

Reduction amounts are estimated by comparing the Reduction amounts are estimated by comparing the level of standard technologies diffused in the base level of standard technologies diffused in the base year with the introduction of new mitigation year with the introduction of new mitigation technologies in the target year, target region and technologies in the target year, target region and target sector. target sector.

Region Code Annex1) 1) Japan 2) China 3) India 4) Indonesia 5) Korea 6) Thailand 7) Other South-east Asia 8) Other South Asia 9) Middle East 10) Australia 11) New Zealand 12) Canada 13) USA JPN CHN IND IDN KOR THA XSE XSA XME AUS NZL CAN USA AⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ AⅠ AⅠ AⅠ AⅠ Region Code Annex1) 12) Canada 13) USA 14) EU-15 in Western Europe 15) EU-10 in Eastern Europe 16) Russia 17) Argentine 18) Brazil 19) Mexico 20) Other Latin America 21) South Africa 22) Other Africa 23) Rest of the World CAN USA XE15 XE10 RUS ARG BRZ MEX XLM SAF XAF XRW AⅠ AⅠ AⅠ AⅠ AⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ NAⅠ

Focusing on major GHG emission regions, especially Again regions Focusing on major GHG emission regions, especially Again regions in detail in detail

Geographical coverage Geographical coverage

Note1) AⅠ = AnnexⅠ nations，NAⅠ= non-AnnexⅠ nations

Target gas and sectors Target gas and sectors

GHG Sector Services CO2 Power generation Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant,

• ther powers generation (wind, biomass, PV)

Industry Iron and steel, Cement Other industries （Boiler, motor etc） Transportation Passenger vehicle, truck，bus，ship, aircraft， passenger train，freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport) Residential Cooling, heating, hot-water，cooking，lighting， refrigerator, TV (only residential) & Commercial CH4 N2 O Agriculture livestock rumination, manure management, paddy field, MSW Municipal solid waste HFCPFC SF6 Fgas emissions By-product of HCFC-22, refrigerant，aerosol, foams， solvent, etching，aluminum production, magnesium

• production. Insulation gas, others.

CH4 Fuel production Coal production and transport, Natural gas production and transport

Assumption of future service demands Assumption of future service demands

Sector Activities Data sources POP GDP UN World Population Prospects （2006) SRES B2 Power generation Electricity generation (GWh) IEA Energy Balances (2007) IEA World Energy Outlook (2007) Industry (Steel) Crude steel production (Mt) International Iron and Steel Institute (2002), The Institute of Energy Economics (2007) U.S. DOE SAGE (2003) and so on Transportation Transport volume (vehicle/km, ton/km) IEA Energy Balance (2007)， U.S. DOE SAGE (2003) , Several Japan and international statistics，WBCSD（2004） and so on Residential & commercial Energy consumption (toe) IEA Energy Balance (2007)， U.S. DOE SAGE (2003) , World Development Indicators (2007)，World Marketing Data and Statistics (2002),UN habitat (2007) and so on Agriculture Livestock (head), cultivation area (ha) FAOSTAT (2005)，The International Food Policy Research Institute (2002)，Food and Agriculture Organization （2002) and so on Fgas Consumption UNEP (2002)，AFEAR (2007)，IPCC/TEAP (2005)， WMO/UNEP(1999)，several papers and so on

Global MAC curves Global MAC curves

• Annex I and Non Annex I

Annex I and Non Annex I -

• 100
• 50

50 100 150 200 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 GHG reductions (Mt-CO2 eq) Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-CO2 eq) Non-Annex I (High DR) Annex I (High DR) Non-Annex I (Low DR) Annex I (Low DR)

Comparison with LOW & HIGH discount rate case

• Estimated mitigations are 8.7~11.3 GtCO2 eq in Global, 2.6~3.8 GtCO2 eq in

Annex I and 6.0~7.5 GtCO2 eq in Non Annex I under the case of 100 US$/t-CO2 marginal abatement cost in 2020

Sector Sector-

• wise reduction potentials

wise reduction potentials

• Annex I and Non Annex I

Annex I and Non Annex I -

• large reduction potentials in power generation and industry sectors are evaluated

due to the use of low energy-efficient technologies particularly in Non-Annex I in the current situation, and these sectors account for 56 % of world total reduction potentials．

Total 11.3 GtCO2 eq

8% 5% 10% 5% 1% 1% 3% 8% 5% 10% 5% 1% 1% 3% 23% 21% 5% 5% 8% 4% 1% 23% 21% 5% 5% 8% 4% 1%

Power generation Industry Residential & Commercial Transport Agriculture MSW F-gas Power generation Industry Residential & Commercial Transport Agriculture MSW F-gas

Annex I Non Annex I

Low discount rate case （under 100US$/ｔ-CO2)

Regional MAC curves Regional MAC curves

• Annex I nations

Annex I nations -

• Low discount rate case

Annex-Ⅰ (2020年, GHGs)

• 100
• 50

50 100 150 200 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 GHG reductions (Mt-CO2 eq) Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-CO2 eq) USA RUS XE15 JPN XE10 AUS CAN NZL

Regional MAC curves Regional MAC curves

• Non Annex I nations

Non Annex I nations -

• Non-Annex-Ⅰ

(2020年, GHGs)

• 100
• 50

50 100 150 200 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 GHG reductions (Mt-CO2 eq) Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-CO2 eq) CHN IND XAF XLM XME IDN BRA XSE XSA KOR ARG THA XRW

Low discount rate case

Region Region-

• wise reduction potentials

wise reduction potentials

Low discount rate case （under 100US$/ｔ-CO2)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 JPN CHN IND IDN KOR THA XSE XSA XME AUS NZL CAN USA XE15 XE10 RUS ARG BRA XLM XAF XRW GHG Reduction potential (Mt-CO 2 eq) 50 < X <= 100 US$/t-CO2 20 < X <= 50 US$/t-CO2 0 < X <= 20 US$/t-CO2 X <= 0 US$/t-CO2

• China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there are

large reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials in the world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.

Sector & Region Sector & Region-

• wise reduction

wise reduction potentials under 100 US$/tCO potentials under 100 US$/tCO2

2

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 JPN CHN IND IDN KOR THA XSE XSA XME AUS NZL CAN USA XE15 XE10 RUS ARG BRA XLM XAF XRW GHG Reduction potential (Mt-CO

2 eq)

under 100 US$/t-CO

2

F-gas (HFC,PFC,SF6) MSW(CH4) Agriculture (CH4&N2O) Power generation (CO2) Transportation (CO2) Residential & Commercial (CO2) Industry (CO2)

• Major sectors which have large reduction potentials vary differently depending
• n the socio-economic characteristics in each region. There are much larger

potentials of cost-effective measures in developing countries．

Low discount rate case （under 100US$/ｔ-CO2)

Comparison with the IPCC AR4 Comparison with the IPCC AR4

• This study shows results in 2020, but results in IPCC AR4 are in 2030．
• Results in IPCC AR4 are based on SRES B2 and IEA World Energy Outlook(2004). The

results of this study are based on SRES B2, UN mid estimation and IEA World Energy Outlook(2007).

• The amount of potentials in IPCC AR4 are larger than this study, not only because IPCC

AR4 focuses on different year and so estimated activities’ levels are different, but also because coverage of mitigation options are wider than this study.

Note 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

This study AR4WG3 This study AR4WG3 This study AR4WG3 This study AR4WG3 This study AR4WG3 This study AR4WG3 Power generation Industry Residential & Commercial Transport Agriculture MSW

GHG Reduction potential (GtCO2 eq) under 100 US$/tCO2 eq Minimum reduction Maximum reduction

Comparison with the IPCC AR4 Comparison with the IPCC AR4

相違

1 2 3 4 5

This study (Annex I) AR4WG3 (OECD) This study (Non Annex I) AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT) This study (Annex I) AR4WG3 (OECD) This study (Non Annex I) AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT) This study (Annex I) AR4WG3 (OECD) This study (Non Annex I) AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT) This study (Annex I) AR4WG3 (OECD) This study (Non Annex I) AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT) This study (Annex I) AR4WG3 (OECD) This study (Non Annex I) AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT) This study (Annex I) AR4WG3 (OECD) This study (Non Annex I) AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT) Power generation Industry Residential & Commercial Transport Agriculture MSW

GHG Reduction potential (GtCO2 eq) under 100 US$/tCO2 eq Minimum reduction Maximum reduction

Trade Balance Module of Energy, Materials and Food Database World Trade

Database

transportation cost and trade barrier

Regional macro-economy and energy service demand module Energy transformation sector Industrial sector Residential and commercial sector Transport sector agriculture sector

Non-agriculture CH4・N2O emission sector

F gases emission sector

Technology Database Regional energy production and supply module Resources-Cost database

23 regions Regional technology bottom-up module

Production and extraction amount of energy Trades of Energy, BMs and Food Energy service demand and energy price Energy demand and Supply Final energy demand

Energy price and emission coefficient World energy and BM price

AIM/Enduse[Global]

Trade module

• Oil, Gas, Coal, Energy biomass
• Iron and Steel,
• Chemical products
• Wood and wood products
• Crop and diary products

Key modeling issue 1

Macro-economy module

• Econometric production-

side model coupled with detailed module of energy and material service demand generation mechanism

Key modeling issue 2

Modules of material demand generation and its reduction mechanism

• Iron and Steel,
• Chemical products
• Wood and wood products
• Crop and diary products

Key modeling issue 3

Modeling of residential energy transition

Dynamism among Electrification, household fuel choice and poverty

Key modeling issue 4

Regional reality of modeling

• Spatial migration
• f

emission activity

• Building and household

dynamics

Key modeling issue 5

Modeling of ancillary benefit and neighboring policy effects

• Regional air quality

management

• Other environmental policy

Key modeling issue 6

Relation among three global models

Impact [Policy] Global [CGE] Enduse [Global]

Common database

• Social and

macroeconomy

• Energy supply

and demand

Reconciliation among energy stocks, efficiency, energy services, and energy consumption Aggregation of energy efficiency, substitution coefficients, emission coefficients Aggregation of energy efficiency, substitution coefficients, emission coefficients Global GHGs emission paths Regional macroeconomic frames World energy price

All in soft linkage

Reconciliation between monetary term and physical term With a certain burden share scheme Year 2000-2050 Year 2000-2100 Year 2000-2200

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