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Technology and Technology and Stabilization Stabilization Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios Jae Edmonds 22 January 2004 National Institutes for Environmental Studies Tsukuba, Japan Thanks To Thanks To Thanks To National Institutes

SLIDE 1

Technology and Technology and Stabilization Stabilization

Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios

Jae Edmonds

22 January 2004 National Institutes for Environmental Studies Tsukuba, Japan

SLIDE 2

Thanks To Thanks To Thanks To

National Institutes for Environmental Studies Stanford Energy Modeling Forum

Sponsors of the GTSP

Kansai Electric Power U.S. Department of Energy U.S. EPA EPRI

SLIDE 3

Dedicated to the Memory of Tsuneyuki Morita Dedicated to the Memory of Dedicated to the Memory of Tsuneyuki Morita Tsuneyuki Morita

SLIDE 4

Key Question for Today Key Question for Today Key Question for Today

What are the energy technology implications

f stabilizing climate—not just CO2

concentrations?

Interactions with uncertainty in biogeochemical

parameterization;

Interactions with uncertainty in technology

developments.

Inspired by the work of Richels, Manne and Wigley.

SLIDE 5

APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH

Background—MiniCAM A Reference Case—MiniCAM B2 Stabilize mean global temperature change to 2oC (relative to pre-industrial) at minimum cost. Sensitivities

Physical science uncertainties

Climate sensitivity Ocean diffusivity Terrestrial carbon uptake

Energy technology uncertainties

CO2 capture and storage H2 systems Biotechnology

SLIDE 6

MiniCAM MiniCAM MiniCAM

Agriculture, Livestock, & Forestry Energy System Coastal Zone System Other Human Systems

Human Activities

Crops & Forest Productivity Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Hydrology Unmanaged Ecosystems & Animals

Ecosystems

Atmospheric Chemistry Ocean Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Climate System Ocean Temperature Sea Level

Climate & Sea Level

SLIDE 7

The MiniCAM KEY CHARACTERISTICS The MiniCAM The MiniCAM KEY CHARACTERISTICS KEY CHARACTERISTICS

Energy-Agriculture-Economy Market Equilibrium 17 Global Regions 15-year time steps Multiple Greenhouse Gases Internally Generated Demographics Land Resource Constraints

69 Energy Technology Options

SLIDE 8

The MiniCAM KEY CHARACTERISTICS The MiniCAM The MiniCAM KEY CHARACTERISTICS KEY CHARACTERISTICS

Carbon Dioxide Methane

15 Source Sectors
Energy, Human Wastes, Agriculture, Land-Use

Nitrous Oxide

12 Source Sectors
Energy, Human, Industrial, Agriculture, Land-Use

Halocarbons, etc.

15 Source Sectors (7 gases)

Reactive Gases

NOx, VOC, CO

Sulfur Dioxide Carbonaceous Aerosols

Black Carbon & Organic Carbon
19 Source Sectors each (Energy & Land-Use Combustion)

15 Greenhouse Related Gases Tracked

GHG concentrations and radiative forcing calculated using MAGICC (Wigley et al.) GHG concentrations and radiative forcing calculated using MAGICC (Wigley et al.)

SLIDE 9

MiniCAM B2 MiniCAM B2 MiniCAM B2

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The Reference Primary Energy System The Reference Primary Energy System SRES MiniCAM B SRES MiniCAM B-

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Exajoules per Year Wind Solar Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Gas Oil

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B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Concentrations, Temperature Rise & Sea Level Rise B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Concentrations, Temperature Rise & Concentrations, Temperature Rise & Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Tgas/ year 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 T C/ year CH4 N2O NOx CO VOC BC OC CO2 process HFC-245fa HFC-134a HFC125(227ea) HFC-143a SF6 C2F6 CF4 CO2 TgC/ yr

Emissions

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 ppb 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 CO2 ppm CH4Conc N2OConc CO2Conc

Concentrations

Sea Level Rise from 1990 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 CM

Sea Level Rise

Global Mean Temperat ure Change from Pre-indust rial 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 degrees C

Global Mean Temperature Change

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Climate Stabilization Climate Stabilization Climate Stabilization

SLIDE 13

The Analysis The Analysis The Analysis

Global Mean Temperature Change not to exceed 2oC. This limit does NOT reflect a determination as to a change that avoids dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Other values could equally well

have been chosen.

Future work will explore other

values.

Global Mean Temperat ure Change from Pre-indust rial 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 degrees C

SLIDE 14

Approach Approach Approach

Minimize the cost of stabilizing climate change

SLIDE 15

Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference Technology and Physical Parameters Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference Technology and Physical Reference Technology and Physical Parameters Parameters

Global Mean Temperat ure Change from Pre-indust rial B2 stab ref science, ref t ech B2 Reference Case 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 degrees C CO2 Concent rat ion B2 st ab ref science, ref t ech B2 Reference Case 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 degrees C

SLIDE 16

CO2 Emissions CO CO2

2 Emissions

Emissions

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions 2020, 7,931 MMT C/ year B2 Ref St ablizat ion B2 Ref 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 MMT Carbon

SLIDE 17

Carbon Tax and Total Cost B2 Ref and B2 Ref with Stabilization Carbon Tax and Total Cost Carbon Tax and Total Cost B2 Ref and B2 Ref with Stabilization B2 Ref and B2 Ref with Stabilization

Global, Common, Carbon Tax in B2 Reference St abilizat ion Case $29 $0 $138 $321 $488 $816 $696 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 U.S. $/ ton C

Present Discounted Cost

$4.625 trillion

1990 U.S. dollars, discounted @ 5%/year, 1990 to 2095

Present Discounted Cost

$4.625 trillion

1990 U.S. dollars, discounted @ 5%/year, 1990 to 2095

SLIDE 18

Energy and Stabilization Energy and Stabilization Energy and Stabilization

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

H2 Biom Elec Coal Gas Oil

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

H2 Biom Elec Coal Gas Oil

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year

SatSolar SWStor Wind Fusion H2Fcell GasCap OilCap CoalCap Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

B2 Reference B2 Reference with Climate Stabilization

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year

SatSolar SWStor Wind Fusion H2Fcell GasCap OilCap CoalCap Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

Final Energy Electric Power

SLIDE 19

Biomass and Land-Use Change Emission Biomass and Land Biomass and Land-

Use Change

Use Change Emission Emission

Biomass in B2 Reference and B2 Reference St abilizat ion Cases 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 EJ/ year B2 st ab Modern b2 St able Wast e & Trad B2 Modern B2 Wast e & Trad Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions

1000
500

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 TgC/ year C

B2 Reference Crops Pasture Forest BioLand Unmgd Non-prod Land 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 B2 Reference with Stabilization Crops Pasture Forest BioLand Unmgd Non-prod Land 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

SLIDE 20

Physical Parameter Uncertainty & Climate Stabilization Physical Parameter Uncertainty & Physical Parameter Uncertainty & Climate Stabilization Climate Stabilization

SLIDE 21

Alternative Biogeophysical Parameterizations Alternative Biogeophysical Alternative Biogeophysical Parameterizations Parameterizations

High Climate Sensitivity Low Value Reference Value High Value Units Climate Sensitivity 1.5 2.5 4.5 degrees C per CO2 doubling Ocean Diffusivity 1.0 2.3 3.3 cm2/s Carbon Uptake low mid high various High Ocean Diffusivity Low Value Reference Value High Value Units Climate Sensitivity 1.5 2.5 4.5 degrees C per CO2 doubling Ocean Diffusivity 1.0 2.3 3.3 cm2/s Carbon Uptake low mid high various High Carbon Uptake Low Value Reference Value High Value Units Climate Sensitivity 1.5 2.5 4.5 degrees C per CO2 doubling Ocean Diffusivity 1.0 2.3 3.3 cm2/s Carbon Uptake low mid high various SEVEN CASES Reference High Climate Sensitivity High Ocean Diffusivity High Carbon Uptake Low Climate Sensitivity Low Ocean Diffusivity Low Carbon Uptake

Each case uses the extreme value for

ne physical

parameter and reference values for the others Each case uses the extreme value for

ne physical

parameter and reference values for the others

SLIDE 22

Temperature, Stabilization, & Uncertainty in Biogeochemical Physical Parameters Temperature, Stabilization, & Uncertainty Temperature, Stabilization, & Uncertainty in Biogeochemical Physical Parameters in Biogeochemical Physical Parameters

Global Temperature Change 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 Year Temperature Change (°C) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

B2 Reference Case HighOceanD Base Stabilization vHighClimSens LowClimSens LowOceanD LowCarbUptake HighCarbUptake HighBCLowSO4

Range of unconstrained reference cases under alternative physical system parameterizations Range of unconstrained reference cases under alternative physical system parameterizations High climate sensitivity, ∆T< 2oC High climate sensitivity, ∆T< 2oC Low climate sensitivity, ∆T< 2oC Low climate sensitivity, ∆T< 2oC

SLIDE 23

Carbon and GMT Change Stabilization Carbon and GMT Change Carbon and GMT Change Stabilization Stabilization

CO2 Concent rat ion 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 degrees C B2 Ref B2 Ref St ablizat ion Low Carb Sens High Carb Sens High Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Ocean Diffusivit y High Ocean Diffusivit y High Black Carbon-Low S Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 MMT Carbon B2 Ref B2 Ref St ablizat ion Low Carb Sens High Carb Sens High Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Ocean Diffusivit y High Ocean Diffusivit y High Black Carbon-Low S

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Biogeochemical Parameter Uncertainty and Cost Biogeochemical Parameter Biogeochemical Parameter Uncertainty and Cost Uncertainty and Cost

Carbon Tax Rat e for St abilizat ion $0 $138 $321 $488 $696 $816 $714 $1,027 $1,288 $1,526 $1,880 $1,992 $29 $142 $72 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 US$/ TonC B2 Ref St ablizat ion Low Carb Sens High Carb Sens High Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Ocean Diffusivit y High Ocean Diffusivit y High Black Carbon-Low S

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B2 Reference with Stabilization Alternative Biogeophysical Parameters B2 Reference with Stabilization B2 Reference with Stabilization Alternative Biogeophysical Parameters Alternative Biogeophysical Parameters

Total Policy Cost 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 B a s e _ S t a b L

C l i m S e n s V H i g h C l i m S e n s L

U p t a k e C a r b C H i g h U p t a k e C a r b C L

O c e a n D i f f H i g h O c e a n D i f f H i g h B C L

e r S O 4 Cost (Trillion $90US)

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Technology Availability & Climate Stabilization Technology Availability & Technology Availability & Climate Stabilization Climate Stabilization

SLIDE 27

Technology Performance Technology Performance

Units 1990 Ref 2095 Adv 2095 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY Oil 1990 US$/gJ $1.13 $7.55 $3.27 Gas 1990 US$/gJ $1.40 $5.03 $3.40 Coal 1990 US$/gJ $0.76 $1.42 $1.08 Biomass 1990 US$/gJ $1.63 $1.95 $1.89 ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION (fuel + non-fuel cost) Nuclear 1990 US cents/kWh 5.8 5.8 5.8 Solar 1990 US cents/kWh 61.0 6.0 6.0 Wind 1990 US cents/kWh 8.0 4.0 4.0 Gas 1990 US cents/kWh 3.5 4.4 4.4 Coal 1990 US cents/kWh 3.8 3.8 3.8 CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE Power penalty, coal % derating 25 not available 15 Capital cost, coal % of non-capture K 88 not available 63 Power penalty, gas % derating 13 not available 10 Capital cost, gas % of non-capture K 89 not available 72 Storage 1990 US$/tC 37 not available 37 Capture efficiency % 90 not available 90 TRANSPORTATION US Automobile Performance mpg 18 60 100 Fuel Cell mpg (equivalent) 43 60 100 Agriculture & Biomass Crop & Biomass Productivity Annual Ave 1.10% (added .25% in early years, and 0.5% in latter years) Hydrogen Production Natural Gas 1990 US$/gJ $6.50 $9.00 $15.00 Coal 1990 US$/gJ $9.00 $7.40 $29.00 Advanced H2 1990 US$/gJ NA NA $5.50 0.70%

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WARNI NG!!!

The Advanced Technology Case Is Just The Advanced Technology Case Is Just One of Many Possible Outcomes for One of Many Possible Outcomes for Investments in a Diversified Portfolio of Investments in a Diversified Portfolio of Energy Technology R&D Energy Technology R&D

Includes information from three “deep dives” undertaken under the GTSP Carbon Capture and Storage Bio-technology Hydrogen and Advanced Transportation Systems

SLIDE 29

Technology & Stabilization Technology & Stabilization Technology & Stabilization

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year

H2 Biom Elec Coal Gas Oil

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year

H2 Biom Elec Coal Gas Oil 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year

H2 Biom Elec Coal Gas Oil

B2 Reference B2 Ref with Stabilization B2 AT with Stabilization

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Power Generation and Stabilization—Electrification Power Generation and Power Generation and Stabilization Stabilization— —Electrification Electrification

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year

SatSolar SWStor Wind Fusion H2Fcell GasCap OilCap CoalCap Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year

SatSolar SWStor Wind Fusion H2Fcell GasCap OilCap CoalCap Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

B2 Ref with Stabilization B2 AT with Stabilization

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year

SatSolar SWStor Wind Fusion H2Fcell Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear CoalCap Coal GasCap Gas OilCap Oil

B2 Reference

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H2 and Biotech B2 AT with Stabilization H2 and Biotech H2 and Biotech B2 AT with Stabilization B2 AT with Stabilization

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/year Biotechnology Biomass Electrolysis Coal Gas Oil

Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions

1000
500

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 TgC/ year C

B2 AT with Biotech Crops Pasture Forest BioLand Unmgd Non-prod Land 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 B2 Reference with Stabilization Crops Pasture Forest BioLand Unmgd Non-prod Land 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Biotechnology& Land Use

What if agricultural and biomass crop productivities could be maintained and a biological source of H2 that is cost-competitive with CH4?

SLIDE 32

CO2 Capture and Storage B2 AT with Stabilization CO CO2

2 Capture and Storage

Capture and Storage B2 AT with Stabilization B2 AT with Stabilization

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

MMt C

H2 Prod Synfuel Elec

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

MMt C/year

H2 Prod Synfuel Elec

Carbon Storage Reservoir Range (PgC) Deep Saline Reservoirs 87 to 2,727 Depleted Gas Reservoirs 136 to 300 Depleted Oil Reservoirs 41 to 191 Unminable Coal >20 Basalt Formations >1,000 Deep Ocean 1,400 to 27,000

Source: Herzog et al. (1997), Freund and Ormerod (1997), PNNL (2001).

SLIDE 33

Technology, Carbon Emissions, & CO2 Concentration Technology, Carbon Emissions, Technology, Carbon Emissions, & CO & CO2

2 Concentration

Concentration

CO2 Concent rat ion 300 350 400 450 500 550 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 degrees C B2 St able B2 St able CC&S B2 St able H2 B2 St able CC&S-H2 B2 St able Biot ech B2 St able H2&Biot ech B2 St able CC&S-H2&Biot ech Technology, Carbon Emissions, and St abilizat ion 300 1300 2300 3300 4300 5300 6300 7300 8300 9300 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 degrees C B2 St able B2 St able CC&S B2 St able H2 B2 St able CC&S-H2 B2 St able Biot ech B2 St able H2&Biot ech B2 St able CC&S-H2&Biot ech

SLIDE 34

Technology and Cost Technology and Cost Technology and Cost

Total Policy Cost $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 $4.0 $4.5 $5.0 Base_Stab BioTech Geol Carb Seq H2 End Uses H2 & BioTech Carb Seq & H2 H2 & Seq & BioTech Cost (Trillion $90US)

SLIDE 35

Some Major Points Some Major Points Some Major Points

The inclusion of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in an analysis of greenhouse gas stabilization has important implications. Limiting the change in radiative forcing to 2oC implies stabilizing CO2 concentrations at 500 ppm.

Emissions peak in 2020 and decline to 3.4 PgC/year by 2095.

An improved technology portfolio could reduce the cost substantially—from $4.5 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity has huge implications for a 2oC limit on GMT change:

Low climate sensitivity means no mitigation until the second half

f the century

High climate sensitivity means immediate, radical emissions

mitigation.

SLIDE 36

The GTSP Web Site The GTSP Web Site

www.pnl.gov/gtsp www.pnl.gov/gtsp

SLIDE 37

END END END

SLIDE 38

GTSP “Deep Dives”

Carbon Capture and Storage Bio-technology Hydrogen and Advanced Transportation Systems Nuclear (fission/fusion) Wind, Solar and Other Renewables (including SSP) Energy Intensity

Cross-Cutting Themes

Modeling Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Scenarios Institutions and Implementation

SLIDE 39

Technology & High Climate Sensitivity Technology & High Climate Technology & High Climate Sensitivity Sensitivity

Total Policy Cost High Climate Sensitivity $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 No Addl Tech Geol Carb Seq H2 End Uses H2 & BioTech H2 & Seq & BioTech Cost (Trillion $90US)

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 MMT Carbon B2 Ref B2 Ref St ablization Low Carb Sens High Carb Sens High Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Ocean Diffusivit y High Ocean Diffusivit y High Black Carbon-Low S

SLIDE 40

Total Policy Cost Low Climate Sensitivity $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $0.80 $0.90 $1.00 No Addl Tech Geol Carb Seq H2 End Uses H2 & BioTech H2 & Seq & BioTech Cost (Trillion $90US)

Technology & Low Climate Sensitivity Technology & Low Climate Technology & Low Climate Sensitivity Sensitivity

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 MMT Carbon B2 Ref B2 Ref St ablizat ion Low Carb Sens High Carb Sens High Climate Sensit ivit y Low Climat e Sensit ivit y Low Ocean Diffusivit y High Ocean Diffusivity High Black Carbon-Low S

SLIDE 41

MiniCAM MiniCAM MiniCAM

Agriculture, Livestock, & Forestry Energy System Coastal Zone System Other Human Systems

Human Activities

Crops & Forest Productivity Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Hydrology Unmanaged Ecosystems & Animals

Ecosystems

Atmospheric Chemistry Ocean Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Climate System Ocean

Temperature
Sea Level

Climate & Sea Level