Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Beacon - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
riverside rising
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Beacon - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 21, 2023 254 likes •450 views

Analysis. Answers Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Beacon Economics, LLC Analysis. Answers. California fact versus fiction Looking back a few years (2009 / 2010) everyone was saying that CA would fail like Greece

slide-1
SLIDE 1
  • Analysis. Answers.
  • Analysis. Answers

Beacon Economics, LLC

Riverside Rising

Economic Outlook for the Region

April 2015

slide-2
SLIDE 2
  • Analysis. Answers.

California fact versus fiction

2

California Hype:

  • High taxes, Over regulated
  • People / businesses fleeing

Reality

  • Cyclical issues being confused with

structural ones

  • Business Climate is not that important
  • Certain industries more vulnerable than
  • thers, but others doing great
  • State on top of growth again
  • Biggest issue is resistance to growth,

particularly in coastal regions

“Looking back a few years (2009 / 2010) everyone was saying that CA would fail like Greece or Detroit, but things look different now. What has happened to turn things around?”

slide-3
SLIDE 3
  • Analysis. Answers.

Job Estimates

3

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Jan‐11 May‐11 Sep‐11 Jan‐12 May‐12 Sep‐12 Jan‐13 May‐13 Sep‐13 Jan‐14 May‐14 Sep‐14 Jan‐15

Year on Year Change California Payrolls

Old Revised

Change Growth United States 3,212,000 2.4% New York State 156,800 1.8% California 498,000 3.2% Texas 392,900 3.5%

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 Jan‐95 Aug‐96 Mar‐98 Oct‐99 May‐01 Dec‐02 Jul‐04 Feb‐06 Sep‐07 Apr‐09 Nov‐10 Jun‐12 Jan‐14

Index Payroll Employment

California Balance US

slide-4
SLIDE 4
  • Analysis. Answers.

IE Employment Trends

4

SA Data Mar-15 Y-o-Y Gr San Jose 1,044,900 5.3% Fresno 323,000 4.5% Inland Empire 1,325,800 4.4% Orange Cnt 1,536,000 3.5% Santa Barbara 182,000 3.2% Stockton 213,500 3.1% Sacramento 909,400 3.0% San Diego 1,376,600 2.9% Modesto 164,800 2.7% Los Angeles 4,298,400 2.4% Bakersfield 260,600 2.4% East Bay 1,080,700 2.3% Sonoma 194,700 1.7% Ventura 296,400 1.5%

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

Jan‐13 Mar‐13 May‐13 Jul‐13 Sep‐13 Nov‐13 Jan‐14 Mar‐14 May‐14 Jul‐14 Sep‐14 Nov‐14 Jan‐15 Mar‐15

Year over Year (%, SA)

Nonfarm Employment Growth

Inland Empire California

slide-5
SLIDE 5
  • Analysis. Answers.

Local Jobs

5

520000 540000 560000 580000 600000 620000 640000 660000 680000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

County Jobs

Riverside San Bernardino

Mar-15 YoY Gr Total, All Industries 1,340,800 4.2% Logistics 86,600 12.6% Administrative 94,200 11.1% Professional 43,700 7.4% Wholesale Trade 62,000 6.7% Construction 78,700 5.6% Financial Activities 44,700 5.4% Hospitality 153,000 5.3% Health Care 178,700 3.6% Other Services 44,600 3.5% Educational 20,300 3.0% Government 235,100 1.5% Manufacturing 90,900 1.1% Retail Trade 165,900 0.2% Information 11,200

  • 0.9%
slide-6
SLIDE 6
  • Analysis. Answers.

Taxable Sales

6

7.56 7.77

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5

Q1‐06 Q4‐06 Q3‐07 Q2‐08 Q1‐09 Q4‐09 Q3‐10 Q2‐11 Q1‐12 Q4‐12 Q3‐13 Q2‐14

Riverside County ($ Bill., SA)

Riverside Taxable Sales

Category 2013 YTD 2014 YTD Change (%) Autos and Transportation 34.9 39.3 12.6 Building and Construction 21.5 23.7 10.0 Business and Industry 28.7 28.2 ‐1.7 Food and Drugs 12.1 12.8 5.5 Fuel and Service Stations 28.6 29.6 3.6 General Consumer Goods 50.2 52.4 4.4 Restaurants and Hotels 23.6 25.2 6.6 Total 220.8 235.6 6.7

slide-7
SLIDE 7
  • Analysis. Answers.

Other Measure Business Activity

7

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 Jan‐04 Apr‐05 Jul‐06 Oct‐07 Jan‐09 Apr‐10 Jul‐11 Oct‐12 Jan‐14

Non Residential Permits

New Alterations

2013 2014 Room Rate Palm Springs $164.0 $174.7 Riverside $91.7 $97.5 Temecula $111.8 $116.5 Occupancy Palm Springs 60.4% 62.0% Riverside 67.2% 69.7% Temecula 73.5% 77.7%

Hotels

250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Jan‐09 Jul‐09 Jan‐10 Jul‐10 Jan‐11 Jul‐11 Jan‐12 Jul‐12 Jan‐13 Jul‐13 Jan‐14 Jul‐14

Ontario Passenger Traffic (SA)

slide-8
SLIDE 8
  • Analysis. Answers.

Business and Wages

8

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Establishments (Indexed)

CA Riverside

$560 $580 $600 $620 $640 $660 $680 $700 $720 $740 $760 $780 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Weekly Earnings: Riverside

slide-9
SLIDE 9
  • Analysis. Answers.

The IE Economy

9

Rank City GMP 01-13 Gr 17 San Diego 186108 2.0% 18 Denver 166150 1.9% 19 Portland 159266 5.1% 20 Baltimore 158746 1.9% 21

  • St. Louis

136519 0.6% 22 Charlotte 130318 2.9% 23 Pittsburgh 122891 1.0% 24 Inland Empire 118693 1.6% 25 Indianapolis 117312 1.7% 26 Tampa 115263 1.6% 27 Cleveland 114448 0.6% 28 Cincinnati 111279 1.1% 29 Kansas City 110278 1.3% Share LQ Government 19.3% 7.1% Retail trade 8.9% 3.2% Logistics 5.2% 2.4% Construction 5.3% 1.6% Real estate 15.5% 1.5% Other services 2.8% 0.7% Administrative 3.8% 0.7% Wholesale trade 6.6% 0.7% Health care 8.0% 0.7% Accommodation 3.2% 0.4% Arts, entertainment 0.8%

  • 0.2%

Educational services 0.6%

  • 0.5%

Information 2.0%

  • 3.5%

Manufacturing 8.1%

  • 3.8%

Finance 2.7%

  • 4.2%

Professional 3.3%

  • 4.3%
slide-10
SLIDE 10
  • Analysis. Answers.

Commuting

10

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Commute out of Home County (%)

Outbound Commuting

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Riverside Household Payroll Gap

slide-11
SLIDE 11
  • Analysis. Answers.

The Commuter Base

11

‐ 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Jan‐11 May‐11 Sep‐11 Jan‐12 May‐12 Sep‐12 Jan‐13 May‐13 Sep‐13 Jan‐14 May‐14 Sep‐14 Jan‐15

Median Homes Prices

Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino

By Income Local Commuters Under $20k 41.4% 24.0% $20k to $50k 34.6% 34.3% $50k to $100k 18.3% 31.9% $100k plus 5.7% 9.8% By Education Local Commuters No High School 17.1% 13.2% High School 26.8% 22.8% Some College 35.6% 36.4% Bachelors Degree 13.1% 18.8% Grad./Prof. Degree 7.3% 8.8% Who are the Commuters?

slide-12
SLIDE 12
  • Analysis. Answers.

Residential Real Estate

12

150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 Q1‐05 Q1‐06 Q1‐07 Q1‐08 Q1‐09 Q1‐10 Q1‐11 Q1‐12 Q1‐13 Q1‐14

Median Home Prices

Riverside County California 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Q1‐05 Q4‐05 Q3‐06 Q2‐07 Q1‐08 Q4‐08 Q3‐09 Q2‐10 Q1‐11 Q4‐11 Q3‐12 Q2‐13 Q1‐14 Q4‐14

Riverside (SA)

Existing Home Sales

slide-13
SLIDE 13
  • Analysis. Answers.

Residential Real Estate

13

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Q1‐94 Q3‐95 Q1‐97 Q3‐98 Q1‐00 Q3‐01 Q1‐03 Q3‐04 Q1‐06 Q3‐07 Q1‐09 Q3‐10 Q1‐12 Q3‐13

Distressed Mortgages

Defaults Foreclosures 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jan‐00 Jan‐01 Jan‐02 Jan‐03 Jan‐04 Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Months of Supply

Housing Inventory

Riverside Orange County

slide-14
SLIDE 14
  • Analysis. Answers.

Residential Real Estate

14

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 Q4‐04 Q4‐05 Q4‐06 Q4‐07 Q4‐08 Q4‐09 Q4‐10 Q4‐11 Q4‐12 Q4‐13 Q4‐14 Vacancy Rate (%) Monthly Rent

Inland Empire Apartment Market

Rent Vacancy

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

Riverside County Permits

Residential Units

slide-15
SLIDE 15
  • Analysis. Answers.

Supply Demand Imbalances

15

2013 Vacancy State Owner Renter Both Florida 2.5% 9.2% 4.9% Texas 1.6% 7.9% 4.0% Illinois 1.8% 6.2% 3.3% New York 1.6% 4.2% 2.8% California 1.3% 4.2% 2.6% MSA Miami 2.1% 7.4% 4.2% Dallas 1.4% 7.2% 3.7% Inland Empire 1.9% 6.5% 3.7% Chicago 1.9% 5.6% 3.2% New York 1.6% 4.3% 2.9% San Diego 1.4% 4.1% 2.7% Washington, DC 1.0% 5.1% 2.5% Los Angeles 1.0% 3.7% 2.4% San Francisco 0.9% 3.0% 1.9%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

State Housing / Population Imbalance

Share Population Share Residential Permits

slide-16
SLIDE 16
  • Analysis. Answers.

Population

16 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Population (Millions)

Riverside County Population

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Annual Growth (%)

Population Growth

Riverside County California

slide-17
SLIDE 17
  • Analysis. Answers.

Forecast

17 ‐ 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 Q4‐04 Q1‐06 Q2‐07 Q3‐08 Q4‐09 Q1‐11 Q2‐12 Q3‐13 Q4‐14 Q1‐16 Q2‐17 Q3‐18 Q4‐19 Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (000s, SA)

Labor Market Forecast

Nonfarm Employment Forecast Unemployment Rate Forecast ‐ 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 ‐ 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Q4‐04 Q4‐05 Q4‐06 Q4‐07 Q4‐08 Q4‐09 Q4‐10 Q4‐11 Q4‐12 Q4‐13 Q4‐14 Q4‐15 Q4‐16 Q4‐17 Q4‐18 Q4‐19 Q4‐20 Sales (000s, SA) Median Price ($000s, SA)

Residential Real Estate Forecast

Sales Forecast Median Home Price Forecast

slide-18
SLIDE 18
  • Analysis. Answers.

Forecast

18 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Q4‐04 Q1‐06 Q2‐07 Q3‐08 Q4‐09 Q1‐11 Q2‐12 Q3‐13 Q4‐14 Q1‐16 Q2‐17 Q3‐18 Q4‐19 Nonres Permit Values ($ Millions, SA) Residential Permits (000 Units, SA)

Construction Permit Forecast

Residential Permits Forecast Nonresidential Permits Forecast ‐ 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Q4‐04 Q4‐05 Q4‐06 Q4‐07 Q4‐08 Q4‐09 Q4‐10 Q4‐11 Q4‐12 Q4‐13 Q4‐14 Q4‐15 Q4‐16 Q4‐17 Q4‐18 Q4‐19 Q4‐20 Taxable Sales ($ Millions, SA)

Taxable Sales Forecast

Taxable Sales Forecast

slide-19
SLIDE 19
  • Analysis. Answers.

19

  • For additional information visit www.beaconecon.com
  • Our Services
  • Economic Forecasting
  • Regional Intelligence Reports
  • Business & Market Analysis
  • Real Estate Market Analysis
  • Ports & Infrastructure Analysis
  • Economic Impact Analysis
  • Public Policy Analysis

To view or download this presentation please visit: www.BeaconEcon.com Chris@BeaconEcon.com 310‐571‐3399