Regional Earthquake Shaking and Loss Assessment Dr.Karin Sesetyan, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Regional Earthquake Shaking and Loss Assessment

Dr.Karin Sesetyan, Dr. Mine B. Demircioglu, Dr. Can Zulfikar, Yaver Kamer and Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik

Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey

Cost Action C26 International Conference, 16-18 September 2010

NERIES –JRA3 Developing Rapid Shake-map and Loss Estimation Capability

ELER - EU NERIES Project (http://www.neries-eu.org/)

The JRA 3 working group aims for rapid earthquake loss estimation (damages and casualties) throughout the Euro-Med region. JRA 3 Working Group: KOERI,Imperial College, NORSAR, EMSC, ITSAK, DPC-SSN, ICC, IST Task-1 Evaluation of the existing tools on urban earthquake loss assessment (Imperial College) Task-2 Development of “Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine” Task-2a Earthquake Shaking estimation (NORSAR) Task-2b Earthquake Vulnerability (KOERI) Task-3 Development of the ELER Software (KOERI) Task-4 ELER Utilization/Applications (EMSC)

HAZARD Module (at reference soil) Physical Losses and Casualties

ELER

Mapping and Reporting External Hazard Data Site Response Module Earthquake Source Parameters Tectonic Entities Vs30 Distribution SHAKEMAP External Site Response Data USGS ShakeMap Module Online Accelerometric Data Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement Based) User Supplied Vulnerability Modules Default Physical and Social Inventory Data User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data HAZARD Module (at reference soil) HAZARD Module (at reference soil) Physical Losses and Casualties Physical Losses and Casualties

ELER ELER

Mapping and Reporting Mapping and Reporting External Hazard Data External Hazard Data Site Response Module Site Response Module Earthquake Source Parameters Tectonic Entities Earthquake Source Parameters Tectonic Entities Vs30 Distribution Vs30 Distribution SHAKEMAP SHAKEMAP External Site Response Data External Site Response Data USGS ShakeMap Module USGS ShakeMap Module Online Accelerometric Data Online Accelerometric Data Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement Based) Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement Based) User Supplied Vulnerability Modules User Supplied Vulnerability Modules Default Physical and Social Inventory Data Default Physical and Social Inventory Data User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data

Overview of ELER Software Components

LOSS MODULE HAZARD MODULE

Levels of Loss Assessment Analysis

Crude Estimations

• f

Casualties Regional Scale Damage and Casualty Assessment Urban Scale Damage and Casualty Assessment

• Ground Motion Methodology

 Modified USGS Shake-map algorithm

• Building Damage Estimation Methodologies

 Intensity Based Vulnerability (Level 1)

• Macroseismic method implicitly defined by EMS-98 scale

(Giovinazzi S., 2005)  Spectral Displacement- Based Vulnerability (Level 2)

• Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM)
• Modified Acceleration – Displacement Response Spectrum

Method (MADRS)

• Reduction Factor Method
• Coefficient Method
• Casualty Estimation methodology
• Samardjieva & Badal (2002) – Level 0
• Intensity based fatality rates – Level 0
• KOERI (with ATC-13) – Level 1
• HAZUS99 – Level 2
• HAZUS-MH – Level 2

Methodologies used in ELER Software

Since MATLAB is a cross-platform programming language ELER can run

• n the following operating systems without any code modification:
• Windows (x64)
• Linux (x86-64)
• Mac OS X
• Solaris 64

Once compiled MATLAB programs can run without a licensed MATLAB software. User interface ELER can be used both from a GUI and command line. The GUI enables even the inexperienced user to obtain results fast. The command line interface can be used for automated, scheduled or event triggered runs.

Platform independency

Input file formats

XML Files: (.xml) ShakeMap formatted XML station list files for ground motion estimation input Text t Files: (.txt, .xy) Fault coordinates, fault databases, site condition maps in xyz format Shape Files: (.shp) Building inventories MATLAB AB files: (.mat) Matrix and reference vectors for site condition maps, ground motion prediction models and various coefficient tables (vulnerability-ductility, casualty rates…) GTOPO30: (.dem) Elevation grid data DTED: D: (dt0, dt1): High resolution elevation grid data, population distribution, distribution

• f

building numbers, slope based Vs-30 grids.

Output file formats

Google Earth th KML: (.kml) Ground motions and

• bserved

intensity estimations, casualty and damaged buildings distributions can be outputted as contour lines

• r polygons in KML format.

MATLAB AB files: (.mat) The distributions stated above can also be

• utputted as grids represented by matrices and

reference vectors in MATLAB file format. Graphic files: (.jpg, .gif) The distributions stated above can also be

• utputted as graphic files such JPEG or GIF.

Shape Files: (shp) The output of the building damage analysis can be outputted as a Shape File containing number

• f buildings in each damage state or number of

injuries in each severity level.

Graphical User Interface of ELER Earthquake Hazard

Earthquake Hazard Calculation Routine

Graphical User Interface of ELER Earthquake Hazard

Intensity distribution (ShakeMap) - 1999 Kocaeli earthquake

Observed Intensity Distribution PGA/PGV-Intensity Correlations Wald et al. (1999) Regional Intensity Attenuation Relationship

Graphical User Interface of ELER Earthquake Hazard

Intensity as Polygons Intensity as Lines KML Outputs

Verification with USGS ShakeMap

Only Phantom Stations Phantom and Actual Stations Phantom and Actual Stations with Site correction

ELER ShakeMap

With strong motion data and site correction September 29, 2004 Parkfield Earthquake, M5.0 Depth : 11.5km

L'Aquila Earthquake



Magnitude: Mw 6.3



Coordinates Latitude: 42.38o N Longitude:13.32o E Depth: 2 km

Peak ground acceleration distribution map (%g)

Shaking intensity map (MMI)

• Level 0 (Intensity based

casualty assessment)

 Grid-based analysis  Estimations in

regional scale

 Based on gridded

Landscan population data

 Only earthquake

parameters are required from the user

 Samardjieva & Badal

(2002) and Intesity vs.fatality rates

Level 0 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

Level 0 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

• Level 1 (Intensity based building damage and casualty assessment)

 Grid-based analysis  Estimations in regional and/or country scale  Basic input data available for Europe, for crude estimations of

building damage

 User defined building inventories are accomodated  Intensity based structural vulnerabilites from Lagomarsiono and

Giovinazzi (2006) (EMS-98 Vulnerability Classes, Vulnerability Indices (V, Q), Vulnerability Curves, Damage Probability Matrices)

Level 1 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

REGIONAL SCALE BUILDING INVENTORY FOR LEVEL-1 ANALYSIS

MARMARA REGION INVENTORY

Population Low-Rise RC Mid-Rise RC High-Rise RC Masonry

REGIONAL BUILDING INVENTORY GENERATION THROUGH PROXIES

LAND COVER NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER BUILDING Continuous Urban Fabric 30-40 Discontinuous Urban Fabric 3-5 Nonagricultural Vegetation Areas 3-4 Heteregenous Agricultural Areas 2-4

• Sample areas from Corine database for specific landcover
• Match these areas with Google Earth
• Use image detection software to count the number of buildings in the same area
• Get population count from Corine Database for the same area
• Obtain number of people per building for the specific land cover
• For known land use and population in a grid we can estimate the number of buildings, assign

percentage building types (county and region dependent)

• Verify with actual number of buildings per country (official figures)
• Obtain grid-based number of buildings in different structural types from country-based statistics

REGIONAL BUILDING INVENTORY GENERATION THROUGH PROXIES

Level 1 - Methodology based on Vulnerability Indices

3 . 2 1 . 13 25 . 6 tanh 1 5 . 2

I d

V I

Typology Description Min Mean Max M1 M1 Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of... M1.1 Rubble stone, fieldstone 0.62 0.873 1.02 M1.2 Simple stone 0.46 0.74 1.02 M1.3 Massive stone 0.3 0.616 0.86 M2 Adobe 0.62 0.84 1.02 M3 M3 Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with... M3.1 Masonry with Wooden slabs 0.46 0.74 1.02 M3.2 Masonry vaults 0.46 0.776 1.02 M3.3 Composite steel and masonry slabs 0.46 0.704 1.02 M3.4 Reinforced concrete slabs 0.3 0.616 0.86 M4 Reinforced or confined masonry walls 0.14 0.451 0.7 M5 Overall strengthened 0.3 0.694 1.02 RC1 Concrete Moment Frames

• 0.02

0.442 1.02 RC2 Concrete shear walls

• 0.02

0.386 0.86 RC3 RC3 Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill walls RC3.1 Regularly infilled walls

• 0.02

0.402 0.98 RC3.2 Irregularly infilled walls 0.06 0.522 1.02 RC4 RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall)

• 0.02

0.386 0.86 RC5 Precast Concrete Tilt-Up Walls 0.14 0.384 0.7 RC6 Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls 0.3 0.544 0.86 S1 Steel Moment Frames

• 0.02

0.363 0.86 S2 Steel braced Frames

• 0.02

0.287 0.7 S3 Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls 0.14 0.484 0.86 S4 Steel frame+cast-in-place shear walls

• 0.02

0.224 0.54 S5 Steel and RC composite system

• 0.02

0.402 1.02 W Wood structures 0.14 0.447 0.86 Vulnerability Index

RISK-UE Building Typology Matrix

Giovinazzi S.,(2005)

European building typology

Level 1 - Methodology based on EMS98 Vulnerability Classes

Level 1 – Casualty Estimation

Koeri,2002 Coburn&Spence

Summary of Results

KOERI ESCENARIS ELER D4+D5 40,268 32,148 40,542 D3 76,944 67,034 69,089 Mortal Victims 40,268 17,353 40,542 Hospitalized İnjuries 120,804 121,626

Case Study for ISTANBUL Level 1

Intensity Based Damage Assessment

Case Study for 2009 M6.3 L’Aquila Earthquake Level 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation

Case Study for 2009 M6.3 L’Aquila Earthquake Level 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation

Case Study for 2009 M6.3 L’Aquila Earthquake Level 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation

Level 2 - Spectral Displacement-Based Vulnerability and Damage Assessment Methodology

Presented by Dr. Cüneyt Tüzün

Building Damage Estimation Level 1 (Intensity Based)

(No station correction applied) Attenuation

Buildings in each damage grade based on European Microseismic Scale – EMS, 1998 D3

(Substantial to heavy damage)

D4 + D5

(Damage beyond repair)

Akkar & Bommer 2007

648 63

Boore & Atkinson 2007

582 35

Boore et al. 1997

1112 85

Campbell & Bozorgnia 2007

494 36

D4: Very heavy damage D5: Destruction

Some Remarks on ELER and Similar Applications

IT Characteristics

• Developed with MATLAB (both computation and plots)
• Easy installation and use in different operating systems
• Modular-Based
• Easy incorporation of user-defined methods (e.g. attenuation, vulnerabilities)

Improvements in Shake Mapping

• Different techniques (FAS, local intensity attenuation relationships)
• Bias adjustment also at surface

Loss Assessment

• Robust loss estimation methodology
• Both European and HAZUS Building Taxonomies
• Incorporation of different levels of inventory sophistication
• Implementation of several well-tested analytical methods
• Both intensity and spectral displacement-based methods

Applications with ELER

 Earthquake loss assessments for the Istanbul

Metropolitan Municipality have been conducted with ELER

 Earthquake risk assessment for the buried

pipelines of the Istanbul Natural Gas Network will be conducted with ELER

 ELER was selected as one of the tools to be tested

in GEM, Los Angeles building inventory is being analyzed under Level 2 of ELER

 Regional and urban scale risk assessments within

EMME (Earthquake Model of Middle East) Project will be conducted with ELER

 Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System will

also be modified to adopt the analysis tools developed in ELER

Publications



RAPID EARTHQUAKE HAZARD and LOSS ASSESSMENT for EURO-MEDITERRANEAN REGION

Mustafa Erdik, Karin Sesetyan, Mine Demircioglu, Ufuk Hancilar, Can Zulfikar, Eser Durukal, Yaver Kamer, Cem Yenidogan, Cuneyt Tuzun, Zehra Cagnan, Ebru Harmandar Acta Geophysica, 2010



RAPID EARTHQUAKE LOSS ASSESSMENT AFTER DAMAGING EARTHQUAKES

M.Erdik, K.Şeşetyan, M.B.Demircioğlu, U.Hancılar, C.Zülfikar Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2010



ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RAPID RESPONSE SYSTEM: METHODS AND PRACTICES

Karin Sesetyan, Can Zulfikar, Mine Demircioglu, Ufuk Hancilar, Yaver Kamer and Mustafa Erdik Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2010



URBAN EARTHQUAKE LOSS ASSESSMENT

Ufuk Hancılar , Cüneyt Tüzün, Cem Yenidoğan, Mustafa Erdik. (submitted to NHESS,)

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

ftp://www.orfeus-eu.org/pub/software/ELER/ELER_V3/