EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT TO REAL APPLICATIONS TO REAL APPLICATIONS YASIN M. FAHJAN

Department of Earthquake and Structural Sciences Gebze Institute of Technology, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey fahjan@ gyte.edu.tr

Universidade do Minho Departamento de Engenharia Civil

SEMINAR AND LUNCH ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND HISTORIC MASONRY

July 12, 2010

Attenuation of Seismic Energy Attenuation of Seismic Energy Local Site Effects: Local Site Effects: Event Event

HAZARD ASSESSMENT INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK VULNERABILITIES RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY LOSS RESULTS

Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level Level

SEISMIC HAZARD SEISMIC HAZARD

Deterministic

Consider small number of scenarios: magnitude, distance, number of standard deviation of ground motion Choose the largest ground motion from cases considered

Probabilistic

Consider all possible scenarios: all magnitude, distance and number of

Attenuation Attenuation Relationship Relationship

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH DETERMINISTIC APPROACH

Seism ic source characterization Estim ation of seism icity ( recurrence) param eters for each source Selection of ground m otion attenuation m odels Quantification of the seism ic hazard

F2 F1

Faults (line sources) Area source

log(N) M

SOURCE MODELS RECURRENCE

pga, Sa, Ai

GROUND MOTI ON ATTENUATI ON

distance Probability of exceedance Acceleration

SEI SMI C HAZARD CURVES SEI SMI C HAZARD MAP

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD

Active faults of eastern Marmara region during the last century (Akyuz et al., 2000) The recent high-resolution bathymetric map obtained from the survey of the Ifremer RV Le Suroit vessel that indicates a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system (LePichon et al., 2001)

SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION

The long-term seismicity of the Marmara region (Seismicity between 32 AD –1983 taken from Ambraseys and Finkel, 1991)

Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Catalog Catalog

The sequence of earthquakes in the 18 The sequence of earthquakes in the 18th

th century (after Hubert

century (after Hubert-

• Ferrari, 2000).

Ferrari, 2000).

The seismic activity of the Marmara region with M>3 events from August 17, 1999 to present

Koeri, 2002

Koeri, 2002

Source Source Zonation Zonation Scheme Scheme

Koeri, 2002

RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS

Koeri, 2002

The NEHRP-based Soil Classification

Koeri, 2002

Fa, the short period site-correction defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997) Fv, the long period site correction defined in 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)

Site Site -

• correction Defined

correction Defined i in n t t he 1997 NEHRP he 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997). Provisions (NEHRP 1997).

Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Site dependent seismic hazard assessment

Site dependent SA (T=0.2 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Koeri, 2002

Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Site dependent seismic hazard assessment

Site dependent SA (T=1.0 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Koeri, 2002

Standard Shape of the Standard Shape of the Design Design Spectrum Spectrum (NEHRP 1997) (NEHRP 1997)

T0 TS 1.0 SM1 SMS Sa=S M1 / T Period Sa 0.4 S MS

RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS National Level City Level

(District & Sub-district)

Building Level

Risk Assessment At NATIONAL Level Risk Assessment At NATIONAL Level

Intensity based estimation for the total damage for each city

Members Capacity

Assessment Procedures Assessment Procedures At At Building Building Level Level

Strong Ground Motion Time Histroy

Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level Level

ELEMENTS AT RISK ELEMENTS AT RISK

• Buildings
• Lifeline Systems Built Environment
• Population
• Socio-Economic Activities

Vulnerability Estimation Methodology Vulnerability Estimation Methodology Observed Vulnerability

Based on Previous Earthquake Damage Data

Calculated Vulnerability

Based on computed performance of the building class

Observed Vulnerability Observed Vulnerability Advantage

Based on Observed Damage in previous Earthquakes Simple Concept

Limitations

Intensity Based that does not fit to Current Engineering parameters Regional Building Class Can not apply to New Classes of building

HAZUS, 2003

Classification of Structural Damages Classification of Structural Damages

EMS-1998

Koeri, 2002

Calculated Vulnerability Calculated Vulnerability Advantage

Based on Engineering Ground Motion Parameters Applied to all building classes Based on Soil and Structural Response

Limitations

Not based on damage data Non-structural failure can not be considered

HAZUS, 2003

General General Analysis Analysis Procedure Procedure For For Buildings Buildings Loss Loss Estimation Estimation

IST, 2004

Line plot for vulnerability curves Line plot for vulnerability curves

Classification of Structural Damage

(1) Slight damage (2) Moderate damage (3) Extensive damage (4) Complete damage

Classification of Casualties

Severity 1

Injuries requiring basic medical aid w ithout requiring hospitalization

Severity 2

Injuries requiring a greater degree of medical care and hospitalization

Severity 3

Injuries that pose an immediate life threatening condition if not treated adequately and expeditiously

Severity 4

Instantaneously killed or mortally injured

Example for Classification of Building Types Example for Classification of Building Types According to Existing Database According to Existing Database Construction Type ( I )

1. Skeleton type reinforced concrete building 2. Reinforced concrete shear w all buildings 3. Masonry and plain concrete buildings

Number of stories ( J )

1. Low rise (1-3 stories) 2. Mid rise (4-6 stories) 3. High-rise (more than 6 stories)

Construction date ( K )

1. Construction year: Pre-1985 2. Construction year: Post-1985

Spectral Displacement Based Loss Spectral Displacement Based Loss Estimation Analysis Estimation Analysis

Input Building Inventory Database for Geo-Cells Input Spectral Acceleration for Geo-Cells Input Spectral Displacement Based Vulnerabilities Compute Building Damage Ratio for each Building Types Input Capacity Curve for each Building Type Compute Number of Damaged Buildings for each building Class Compute Direct Economic Loss for each Building Damage State Compute Casualties for each Injury Groups Input Economic Loss Data Parameters Input Demographic Database for Geo-Cells Input Casualties Loss data Parameters Casualtie s Losses for geo- Cells, Sub- district, Districts Economi c Losses for geo- Cells, Sub- district, Districts Buildings Damages for geo- Cells, Sub- district, Districts Calibration with Intensity Based Vulnerabilities

Transportation Transportation Systems Systems

Highw ay Systems: A highw ay transportation system consists of roadw ays, bridges and tunnels. ( geographical location, classification, and replacement cost

• f the system components)

Highw ay Roads

Major Roads Urban Roads

Highw ay Bridges

Transportation system: Earthquake Transportation system: Earthquake Vulnerability and Damage Vulnerability and Damage

Road damages consist of the surface damages and collapse of the neighboring slopes or retaining w alls. Also collapsed underpasses or buildings can block the traffic even if the motorw ay is not damaged. According to ATC 25, the ratio of damage of local roads during an earthquake are given as %2 for MMI V, %4 for MMI VI, %11 for MMI VII, and %32 for MMI VIII

Lifeline Lifeline Utility Utility Systems Systems

Potable Water System

A potable w ater system consists of pipelines, w ater treatment plants, w ells, storage tanks and pumping

• stations. ( geographical location and classification of

system components. repair cost for pipelines ) Brittle Pipe Ductile Pipe Wells, Water Storage Tanks, Water Treatment Plants Pumping Plants

Waste Water

A w aste w ater system consists of pipelines, w aste w ater treatment plants and lift stations. (geographical location and classification of system components, repair cost for pipelines).

Damage Functions Damage Functions for Water Pipelines for Water Pipelines

STRUCLOSS 1.4 SOFTWARE STRUCLOSS 1.4 SOFTWARE

(Updated Version of (Updated Version of KoeriLoss KoeriLoss 1.0) 1.0)

• StrucLoss 1.4 is an updated version of Koeriloss

softw are. The updated version is developed by Earthquake and Structural Department of Gebze Institute of Technology, Turkey.

• Major Updates

Integrate the deterministic hazard into the softw are for w idely used attenuation relationships computation is integrated. Provide Intensity range outputs of the results for each damage states of each building types. Calibration and testing the capacity curve and fragility curve parameters can be done more accurately and in fast w ay.

Adnalyis Method Options Options Icons Start Analyis Input and Control Data Files

Integration of Integration of KOERILoss KOERILoss and MapInfo and MapInfo Graphics Graphics

ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT ASSESSMENT PROJECT

Mw=7.5 scenario earthquake for Istanbul and vicinity

Deterministic Seismic Hazard

GRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTION GRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTION

Site dependent deterministic intensity distribution

Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=0.2 sec) values in units of g

Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=1.0 sec) values in units of g

Moderate Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

Extensive Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

Complete Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM) GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM)-

• JORDAN

JORDAN EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT

Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts

Geo Geo-

• Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m).

Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m).

Geological map of GAM Geological map of GAM

A census block at city center of GAM w ith 500x500 A census block at city center of GAM w ith 500x500 Geo Geo-

• Grid layer

Grid layer

Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, 1 Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, 1 -

• 3 Floors (One Building

3 Floors (One Building

• f 2 Floors )
• f 2 Floors )

0.8 0.5 Average Percenatge of Steel in Beam (%) 0.8 0.6 Average Percenatge of Steel in Columns (%) 25 15 cm Slab Thickness Rib slap RC solid slab Slab Type 50x25 cm 30 x 50 cm External Beam Dimesions 70x25 cm 30 x 50 cm Internal Beam Dimensions 30 cm no Shear w all Thickness 25 x 50 cm 30 x 30 cm External Column Dimesinon (Floor 2) 25 x 50 cm 30 x 30 cm External Column Dimesinon (Floor 1) 25 x 50 cm 30 x 30 cm Internal Column Dimension (Floor 2) 25 x 50 cm 30 x 30 cm Internal Column Dimension (Floor 1) 3.0 -2.75 m 3.5-3.0 m Floor Height 4.0 m 4.5 m Y Grids Spaces 4.0 m 4.5 m X Grids Spaces 400 Mpa 275 Mpa Reinforced Steel Type 300 kg/cm2 200 kg/cm2 Concrete Type After > 1985 Before <1985

Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, pre 1985 Buildings Type (111) Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, post 1985 Buildings Type (112)

Capacity Curve Computations Capacity Curve Computations

Capacity Curve ( +X Direction)

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25

Sd (m) Sa (g)

Capacity Curve Linearized Bilinear

Fragility Curve Estimation Fragility Curve Estimation

. . Example of site Example of site -

• dependent deterministic strong

dependent deterministic strong ground motion distribution ground motion distribution

Thank Thank you you