Urban Earthquake Loss Assessment by ELER U. Hancilar, C. Tuzun, C. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Urban Habitat Constructions under Catastrophic Events 16-18 September 2010, Naples,Italy

Urban Earthquake Loss Assessment by ELER

• U. Hancilar, C. Tuzun, C. Yenidogan, M. Erdik

Department of Earthquake Engineering, Kandilli Observatory & Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey

Outline

 Introduction  Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER)  Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability

Assessment

 Casualty Asessment  Conclusions

 Modern technology permits measurements of strong

ground shaking in near real-time for urban areas exposed to earthquake risk.

 The assessments of the distribution of strong ground

motion, building damage and casualties can be made within few minutes after an earthquake.

 The ground motion measurement and data processing

systems designed to provide this information are called Earthquake Rapid Response Systems. Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies can be reduced by timely and correct action after a disastrous earthquake.

Introduction

Earthquake Rapid Response Systems

Introduction (cont.)

 Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging

earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information.

 Earthquake shaking and loss information is ultimately

intended for dissemination in a timely manner to related agencies for the planning and coordination of the post- earthquake emergency response.

 A methodology and software package, Earthquake Loss

Estimation Routine-ELER, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro- Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled “Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES (www.neries-eu.org)”.

Introduction (cont.)

 Earthquake losses might be assessed in regional and/or in

urban scale.

 Regional estimates of damage to built-environment and

assessment of human losses can be achieved using region-specific theoretical/empirical vulnerability relationships in connection with regional inventories of physical and social elements exposed to risk.

 In urban scale, more detailed inventories of elements at

risk are required in order to use with analytical vulnerability relationships for the estimation of earthquake losses.

ELER Software

 ELER software incorporates both regional

and urban-scale almost real-time estimation

• f losses after a major earthquake in the

Euro-Mediterranean region.

 The software package coded in MATLAB

environment comprises of a Hazard Module and three loss estimation modules: Level 0, Level 1 and Level 2.

Overview of ELER Software Components

HAZARD Module (at reference soil) Physical Losses and Casualties

ELER

Mapping and Reporting External Hazard Data Site Response Module Earthquake Source Parameters Tectonic Entities Vs30 Distribution SHAKEMAP External Site Response Data USGS ShakeMap Module Online Accelerometric Data Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement Based) User Supplied Vulnerability Modules Default Physical and Social Inventory Data User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data HAZARD Module (at reference soil) HAZARD Module (at reference soil) Physical Losses and Casualties Physical Losses and Casualties

ELER ELER

Mapping and Reporting Mapping and Reporting External Hazard Data External Hazard Data Site Response Module Site Response Module Earthquake Source Parameters Tectonic Entities Earthquake Source Parameters Tectonic Entities Vs30 Distribution Vs30 Distribution SHAKEMAP SHAKEMAP External Site Response Data External Site Response Data USGS ShakeMap Module USGS ShakeMap Module Online Accelerometric Data Online Accelerometric Data Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement Based) Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement Based) User Supplied Vulnerability Modules User Supplied Vulnerability Modules Default Physical and Social Inventory Data Default Physical and Social Inventory Data User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data

Hazard Parameters Hazard Calculation Vulnerability Calculation Physical Loss Calculation Representation of Results

ELER Software Analysis Levels

• Level 2 module of the ELER software (similar to

HAZUS, 1999 and HAZUS-MH, 2003) essentially aims at assessing the earthquake risk (building damage, consequential human casualties and macro economic loss quantifiers) in urban areas.

• Spectral capacity based vulnerability assessment

methodology is utilized for building damage estimations.

ELER Software – Level 2

• Capacity Spectrum Method - ATC 40
• MADRS - FEMA 440

(bilinear hysteretic, stiffness degrading, strength degrading and approximate equations)

• Reduction Factor Method - Fajfar 2000
• Coefficient Method - ASCE 41-06

METHODS of BUILDING DAMAGE ESTIMATION Spectral Displacement-Based Vulnerability and Damage Assessment Methodology

ELER Software – Level 2

Level 2 - Spectral Displacement-Based Vulnerability and Damage Assessment Methodology

0 % 5 % 1 0 % 1 5 % 2 0 % 2 5 % 3 0 % N o D a m a g e S lig h t M o d e ra te E x te n s iv e C o m p le te

Performance point and damage probability calculation

Distribution of Buildings at Discrete Damage Levels

Spectral Acceleration Spectral Acceleration

Percentage of exceeding damage

D e m a n d & c a p a c ity s p e c tra fo r d iffe re n t d u ra tio n s o f s h a k in g

0 .0 0 .2 0 .4 0 .6 0 .8 1 .0 0 .0 0 .1 0 .2 S p e c tra l d is p la c e m e n t (m ) S p e c t r a l a C a p a c ity C u rv e D e m a n d C u rv e

E x a m p le F ra g ility C u rv e s

0 % 1 0 % 2 0 % 3 0 % 4 0 % 5 0 % 6 0 % 7 0 % 8 0 % 9 0 % 1 0 0 % 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .1 0 0 .1 5 0 .2 0

S p e c tra l R e s p o n s e (m )

P e r c e n t a g e o e x c e e d i n g d a S lig h t M o d e ra te E x te n s iv e C o m p le te P e rfo rm a n c e P o in t

Spectral Acceleration

Percentage of exceeding damage

Typology Description M1 M1 Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of... M1.1 Rubble stone, fieldstone M1.2 Simple stone M1.3 Massive stone M2 Adobe M3 M3 Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with... M3.1 Masonry with Wooden slabs M3.2 Masonry vaults M3.3 Composite steel and masonry slabs M3.4 Reinforced concrete slabs M4 Reinforced or confined masonry walls M5 Overall strengthened RC1 Concrete Moment Frames RC2 Concrete shear walls RC3 RC3 Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill walls RC3.1 Regularly infilled walls RC3.2 Irregularly infilled walls RC4 RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall) RC5 Precast Concrete Tilt-Up Walls RC6 Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls S1 Steel Moment Frames S2 Steel braced Frames S3 Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls S4 Steel frame+cast-in-place shear walls S5 Steel and RC composite system W Wood structures

RISK-UE Building Typology Matrix Building Types of HAZUS-1999

Level 2 – Building Taxonomy

Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Components

• Earthquake demand representation: Demand Spectrum
• Structural system representation: Building Capacity

Spectrum

• Structural response assessment: Performance Point

Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Components

• Representation of damage probability: Fragility

Curves

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Spectral Displacement (cm) Cumulative Damage Probability Slight Damage Moderate Damage Extensive Damage Complete Damage

,

| (1/ )ln( / )

k dp k dp d k

P Damage D S S S            

Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability Assessment

Spectral capacity based vulnerability and damage assessment methodology

Casualty Assessment

• The casualty estimation is based on HAZUS99 and HAZUS-

MH (2003) methodologies.

• Grid based demographic data defining the number of

people residing in each geo-cell should be provided.

• The output consists of a casualty breakdown by injury

severity level, defined by a four level injury severity scale (Durkin et al. 1991, Coburn 1992, Cheu 1994).

• The casualty model itself in fact is based on the models

suggested by Coburn and Spence (1992), Murakami (1992) and Shiono et al. (1991).

• However, unlike other approaches, the methodology is in

event-tree format and thus is capable of taking into account non-collapse related casualties.

Casualty Assessment

• To estimate the casualties from structural damage, the

model combines inputs from other HAZUS modules including the probability of being in the damage state and the relationship between the general occupancy classes and the model building type with specific casualty inputs provided for each damage state (D1-slight, D2 moderate, D3 Extensive, D4 Complete, D5 complete with collapse structural damage) in combination with occupancy data and time event.

• Casualties for any given building type, building damage

level and injury severity level can be calculated by the following equation: Kij = Population per Building * Number of Damaged Building in damage state j* Casualty Rate for severity level i and damage state j

Conclusions

• Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies

can be reduced by timely and correct action after a disastrous earthquake. Urban earthquake loss assessment module of Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine-ELER software can be used as an effective tool.

• The ultimate goal is the rapid estimation of losses for

effective emergency response and public information after potentially damaging earthquakes.

• Although primarily intended for almost real-time estimation
• f earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also

equally capable of incorporating scenario based earthquake loss assessments and can be utilized for related Monte- Carlo type simulations and earthquake insurance applications

Conclusions

• ELER software is under development and ELER V3.0 has

been released with new capabilities as:

• Calculation of ground motion parameter by “Modified

Kringing Method”

• User defined GMPE
• Economic loss estimation for Level1 and Level 2
• User defined vulnerability parameters for Level 1
• Pipeline damage assessment module
• ELER software will be used as the basic risk assessment

tool in EMME: Earthquake Model of Middle East which is a regional application of GEM: Global Earthquake Model

• ELER V3.0 software can be downloded from

ftp://www.orfeus-eu.org/pub/software/ELER

Thank you for your attention...