2017 Bodrum-Kos Earthquake from the Perspectives of KOERI- Regional - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2017 Bodrum-Kos Earthquake from the Perspectives of KOERI- Regional - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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th July 12 June 2017 Lesvos Earthquake and 20 th 2017 Bodrum-Kos Earthquake from the Perspectives of KOERI- Regional Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring Center as a Tsunami Service Provider of NEAMTWS CEREN ZER SZDINLER 1 , , CAL NECMIOLU

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SLIDE 1

12 June 2017 Lesvos Earthquake and 20th

th July

2017 Bodrum-Kos Earthquake from the Perspectives of KOERI- Regional Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring Center as a Tsunami Service Provider of NEAMTWS

CEREN ÖZER SÖZDINLER1, , ÖCAL NECMIOĞLU1, MEHMET YILMAZER1, , ALI PINAR1

1 1 BOGAZICI UNIVERSITY KANDILLI OBSERVATORY AND EARTHQUAKE

RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CEREN.OZER@BOUN.EDU.TR, , OCAL.NECMIOGLU@BOUN.EDU.TR, , MEHMETY@BOUN.EDU.TR, , PINARA@BOUN.EDU.TR

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE RECENT TSUNAMI EVENTS IN THE AEGEAN SEA

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SLIDE 2

NTWC-TR is operational since 1 July 2012 and has been accredited in 13th Session of UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS held in Bucharest between 26-28 September 2016. SUBSCRIBERS: NIOF (EGYPT), CENALT (FRANCE) , NOA (GREECE) , PMO (ISRAEL), INGV (ITALY) , NCGR, (LEBANON) , IPMA (PORTUGAL) , NIEP (ROMANIA) TYPHOON (RUSSIAN FEDERATION), DGPCE (SPAIN) , CCS (UNITED KINGDOM), ERCC (EU), IOC Secretariat

Tsunami effect zones Earthquake Monitoring Area

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SLIDE 3

Seis ismic Network

NTWC-TR network comprises 236 KOERI owned stations and 99 stations through bilateral agreements.

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SLIDE 4

Sea Level Observations

19 sea level stations

  • perated by General

Command of Mapping – 7

  • f them transmits real-time

data to KOERI.

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SLIDE 5

JR JRC - ID IDSL

° ° “ ”

IDSL stations installed in Fethiye (left) and Bozcaada (right) Planned installations in Samsun (top) and Bodrum (bottom)

… In 2018 …

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SLIDE 6

KOERI Daily Operational Set-Up

  • Day Shift (8:30-17:30) and Two Night Shifts (17:30-01:00 and 01:00-08:30)
  • One duty officer per day (8h) and night shifts (16 hours)
  • One stand-by Duty Officer per day shift
  • One back-up duty officer per day and night shift
  • Total number of Duty Officers: 16 – 7 of them is assigned to the Back-up Team in addition.
  • In total 3 Duty Officers per day shift and 2 Duty Officers per night shift available

CTSP-TR Duty Shifts Working Days Weekends and Holidays 08:30 - 17:30 Duty Officer Stand-by Officer Back-up Officer Duty Officer Back-up Officer 17:30 - 01:00 Duty Officer Back-up Officer Duty Officer Back-up Officer 01:00 - 08:30 Duty Officer Back-up Officer Duty Officer Back-up Officer

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SLIDE 7

Concepts of Operations – Decision Support System

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SLIDE 8

Operational Concepts

Initial EQ Parameters (Magnitude, Location) Tsunami Advisory Message Sea Level Observation Is there a tsunami potential ? Yes! Tsunami Information Message DECISION SUPPORT MATRIX No ! Tsunami Watch Message DECISION MATRIX TSUNAMI MODEL DATABASE (optional) End Message Update Message

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Cancellation Message

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SLIDE 9

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EC EC-JRC Coll llaboration / / TAT and SDBs

MOD1&MOD2 … available in operations … MOD2-TR … developed and available in

  • perations …

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SLIDE 11

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ADVISORY,

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SLIDE 12

Seis iscomp3 and and Earl rly-Est Magnitude Calculations for Le Lesvos and and Bodrum-Kos Earthquakes

5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 00:00 01:26 02:53 04:19 05:46 07:12 08:38 10:05 11:31 12:58 14:24 15:50 17:17 18:43 20:10 21:36 23:02 24:29 25:55 27:22 28:48 30:14 31:41 33:07 34:34 36:00 37:26 38:53 40:19 41:46 43:12 44:38 46:05 47:31 48:58 50:24 51:50 Magnitude Time Early-est Mwp SC3 Mw(Mwp) SC3 Mwp

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Lesvos Bodrum

  • Kos
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SLIDE 13

1st

st Tsunami Alert Message

Disseminated by KOERI for 12 June 2017 Lesvos Earthquake

(10 min after the earthquake)

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SLIDE 14

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2nd

nd Tsunami Alert Message Disseminated by KOERI for

12 June 2017 Lesvos Earthquake (after 1 h 42 min)

Wave heights calculated at Greece and Turkey coasts by SWAN Comparison of sea level mesaurements (red line) with the modeling results (blue line) at Bozcaada IDSL Arrival time of first waves to the coastal locations in Turkey and Greece due to the SWAN modeling results in Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT)

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SLIDE 15

1st

st Tsunami Alert Message Disseminated by KOERI for 20 July 2017

Bodrum-Kos Earthquake (19 min after the earthquake)

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SLIDE 16

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2nd

nd Tsunami Alert Message Disseminated by KOERI after 20 July 2017

Bodrum-Kos Earthquake (1 h 12 min after the earthquake)

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SLIDE 17

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3rd

rd Tsunami Alert Message Disseminated by KOERI after 20 July 2017

Bodrum-Kos Earthquake (2 h after the earthquake)

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SLIDE 18

19 EYLÜL 2017

18

KOERI Operational Key Performance Indicators

  • 2017

in accordance with the Draft Proposal for Performance Monitoring Framework

  • f

NEAMTWS Upstream Components

  • OPI#

Description value Target 12 June 2017

  • Lesvos

– Karaburun Event 20 July 2017

  • Bodrum

– Kos Event OPI01: Elapsed time from earthquake to the issuance

  • f

the first tsunami message time 10 min 10 min 19 min OPI02: Elapsed time from the re-calculation

  • f

the earthquake magnitude to the issuance

  • f

corresponding tsunami message.

  • time

3 min n/a n/a OPI03: Conformity

  • f

the threat level in the message according to the Decision Making Criteria Implemented by the (C)TSP as described in its Operational Manual. + /

  • +

+ + OPI04: Compliance

  • f

the type

  • f

magnitude used in the issued message according to the description given in the CTPS’ Operational Manual + /

  • +

+ + OPI05: The detection

  • f

the earthquake within the service area.

  • yes/no

yes yes yes OPI06: Difference between the epicenter

  • f

the earthquake in the initial message and revised location calculated after 30 min

  • f

the earthquake

  • ccurrence

km 30 km 6.5 km 8.9 km OPI07: Difference between the depth

  • f

the earthquake in the initial message and revised depth calculated after 30 min

  • f

the earthquake

  • ccurrence.
  • km

15 km 10 km 5 km OPI08: Difference between the magnitude

  • f

the earthquake in the initial message and revised magnitude calculated after 30 min

  • f

the earthquake

  • ccurrence

value 0.3 0.1 OPI09: Accuracy

  • f

the forecasted tsunami threat level at 90%

  • f

TFPs + /

  • +

ADVISORY (<0.5m) for all

  • TFPs

WATCH for 3 TFPs in Turkey and Greece each, including Bodrum and Kos, ADVISORY for all

  • ther

TFPs in Turkey and Greece OPI10: Accuracy

  • f

the forecasted arrival time

  • f

the initial tsunami (This depends

  • n

the epicentral distance. For near-field forecast points

  • ne

may not expect the same accuracy as for far-field points.) min 5 16 nin gor Lesvos- Sigri and 23 min for İzmir-Aliağa were forecasted 8 min for Bodrum and 16 min for Kos were forecasted OPI11: Elapsed time from any product issuance to potential receipts TWFPs. min 3min 1 m 1m

  • Kan

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16 min for

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SLIDE 19

Magnitude Uncertainty

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0900Z 01 NOV 2017 COORDINATES - 36.35 NORTH 36.27 EAST DEPTH - 10.00 KM LOCATION - ANTAKYA MAGNITUDE - 6.9* * CALCULATED AT 5 MIN – SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION UPON AVAILABILTY OF ADDITIONAL SEISMIC DATA – MAY DIFFER FROM FINAL MAGNITUDE ESTIMATION Message Dissemination Target: 7 min

19 EYLÜL 2017

19

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SLIDE 20

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SLIDE 21

Tsunami Information Note for AFAD

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SLIDE 22

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SLIDE 23

Bodrum-Kos Earthquake in Turkish Media

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SLIDE 24

Tsu sunami Early Warnin ing Design for Near-fie ield Tsunamis

Necmioğlu, Ö. (2016)

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SLIDE 25

Near-field ld Tsunami Early Warning Design

tSD time needed for the determination of earthquake focal parameters tTD time needed for tsunami decision-making tST time needed for the transmission of earthquake information and tsunami decision to CPA tEV

time needed for the population to receive and understand correctly the warning and evacuate

Effective Tsunami Warning≃ tWT + tEV

< less than 1min

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ing g Cen Center (R (RET ETMC) Papadopoulos and Fokaefs (2013)

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tWT time needed for the civil protection to issue and disseminate early tsunami warning

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SLIDE 26

Tsunami Awareness

  • … regardless of any model, the effectiveness of any tsunami early

warning depends purely on the awareness and preparedness of the civil protection authorities and the public.

  • The aimed awareness and preparedness should only be achieved

with the collaborative study of all stakeholders.

We should aim to ensure that people exposed to an earthquake in a coastal region would be away from the coast within 1-3 hours after the event.

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Jerussalem, Israel Setubal, Portugal

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SLIDE 27

Tsunami World Awareness Day– 5 5 November 2017

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SLIDE 28

Tsunami In Inform rmatio ion Handbook prepared in in MarDiM iM Projec ject

http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/aheb/pdf%20dokumanlar/tsunami_kitap.pdf INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE RECENT TSUNAMI EVENTS IN THE AEGEAN SEA

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SLIDE 29

31 Oct ctober - 3 3 November 2017

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SLIDE 30

Tsunami Human Body Experiment

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Port and Airport Research Institute, Yokosuka, Japan, 2014

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SLIDE 31

Thank you…

Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Istanbul