SLIDE 1 Latest numbers on COVID-19 in the UK – 4 December 2020
With many thanks to Catherine Finnecy for help in collating and understanding the data.
- 1. Cases & lockdowns
- 2. Hospitalisations
- 3. Deaths
- 4. Tiers, test and trace & mas testing
Positive signs everywhere, except Wales. Coming out of restrictions is hard.
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3 Number of new UK confirmed COVID-19 cases by reported date (people who have had a positive test)
New confirmed cases 7-day rolling average
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
SLIDE 4 Number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – UK nations – “specimen date”
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Specimen date: Date someone had a test Because it takes a few days for results to come through, can’t use most recent few days of data.
SLIDE 5 Number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – UK nations – “specimen date”
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Welsh cases going up Wales firebreak
SLIDE 6 Positivity rate for UK nations (proportion of people tested who test positive)
Data from Daily COVID-19 Cases in Scotland - Datasets - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot), Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public, Daily dashboard updates on COVID-19 - November 2020 | Department of Health (health-ni.gov.uk), National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Thanks to Bob Hawkins for preparing the chart.
Wales firebreak Some of it is due to more testing, but not all of it – positivity rate has started to go up…
SLIDE 7 Positivity rate for UK nations (proportion of people tested who test positive)
Data from Daily COVID-19 Cases in Scotland - Datasets - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot), Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public, Daily dashboard updates on COVID-19 - November 2020 | Department of Health (health-ni.gov.uk), National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Thanks to Bob Hawkins for preparing the chart.
Wales firebreak Coming out of restrictions safely is hard to do
SLIDE 8 Positivity rate for UK nations (proportion of people tested who test positive)
Data from Daily COVID-19 Cases in Scotland - Datasets - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot), Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public, Daily dashboard updates on COVID-19 - November 2020 | Department of Health (health-ni.gov.uk), National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Thanks to Bob Hawkins for preparing the chart.
Let’s have a regional look at Scotland
SLIDE 9 Weekly positivity rate (proportion of people tested who were positive) – Scotland by new levels
Scotland stronger restrictions in central belt Scotland 5 tier system Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Data from Public Health Scotland & Scottish Government, map from https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus-scotland-interactive-map-scotlands-covid-19-level-restrictions-3038640
Level 4 areas became level 4
SLIDE 10 Weekly positivity rate (proportion of people tested who were positive) – Scotland by new levels
Scotland stronger restrictions in central belt Scotland 5 tier system
Data from Public Health Scotland & Scottish Government, map from https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus-scotland-interactive-map-scotlands-covid-19-level-restrictions-3038640
Level 4 areas became level 4
Similar to England tiers Similar to England lockdown
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
SLIDE 11 Weekly number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – England regions (specimen date)
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest
England tier system Lockdown
SLIDE 12 England tier system Lockdown
Daily Test Positivity Rate for England Regions to Nov 27
Coronavirus cases by local authority: epidemiological data, 3 December 2020 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart!
SLIDE 13 Cases now reducing in all age groups
Data from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england- who-had-covid-19 and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/previousReleases
SLIDE 14
What might happen in England?
Likely to see case numbers continue to fall for another week Very simple overlay of exponential decay. Daily reported case numbers in England After that… all depends on how well the new tiers work.
SLIDE 15
SLIDE 16 Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk.
Number of new hospital admissions per million people – UK nations (daily 7 day average)
Wales includes admissions with suspected Covid – other nations just confirmed. Cannot be directly compared.
England Wales Scotland NI
SLIDE 17 Number of new hospital admissions with COVID-19 per day in English regions
Data from https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
Midlands NE & Yorks NW Lockdown
SLIDE 18
SLIDE 19 Number of new UK deaths from COVID-19 per week
Data from : England and Wales: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest Scotland: https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/detail.html Northern Ireland: www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths
Scotland Northern Ireland England and Wales
These are registered deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, regardless of location. About 90% are directly due to Covid.
w/e 12 Mar w/e 17 Apr
2,226 w/e 6th Nov 3,041 w/e 20th Nov 2,840 w/e 13th Nov
SLIDE 20 Number of deaths within 28 days of +ve COVID test reported per day in England
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
SLIDE 21
SLIDE 22
SAGE estimate impact of tiers (SO920 document, 26 Nov)
Growing before restriction, shrinking after Growing before restriction, growing more quickly after Growing before restriction, growing more slowly after Shrinking before restriction, growing after shrinking faster after shrinking more slowly after
SLIDE 23
SAGE estimate impact of tiers (SO920 document, 26 Nov)
Growing before restriction, shrinking after Growing before restriction, growing more quickly after Growing before restriction, growing more slowly after Shrinking before restriction, growing after shrinking faster after shrinking more slowly after
Previous Tier 3 was associated with a shrinking pandemic in almost all areas.
SLIDE 24
SAGE estimate impact of tiers (SO920 document, 26 Nov)
Growing before restriction, shrinking after Growing before restriction, growing more quickly after Growing before restriction, growing more slowly after Shrinking before restriction, growing after shrinking faster after shrinking more slowly after
Previous Tier 2 was associated with slower growth in most places but epidemic started shrinking in some Tier 2 areas.
SLIDE 25
SAGE estimate impact of tiers (SO920 document, 26 Nov)
Growing before restriction, shrinking after Growing before restriction, growing more quickly after Growing before restriction, growing more slowly after Shrinking before restriction, growing after shrinking faster after shrinking more slowly after
Previous Tier 1 was not associated with any obvious impact and most places in Tier 1 continued growing.
SLIDE 26 Daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – England new tier 1 areas (specimen date)
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk. Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart!
SLIDE 27 Daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – England new tier 2 areas (specimen date)
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk. Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart!
SLIDE 28 Daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – England new tier 3 areas (specimen date)
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk. Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart!
SLIDE 29 Hospital occupancy COVID-19 per day in England
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
NW Midlands NE & Yorks
Cannot afford to “stabilise” if hospital occupancy & admissions are still high
SLIDE 30
Test and Trace - England
Test and trace is getting quicker – but not reaching more people
SLIDE 31
Mass testing - England
Mass testing is now being rolled out across the country – and but results are not being reported separately. Will make positivity rates much harder to interpret.
Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart! Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk.
SLIDE 32
Summary
Case numbers, hospitalisations are coming down and deaths should soon start to come down. The aggregation of results from mass tests and tests only on those with symptoms is going to make interpreting case data very difficult soon. In Scotland, levels below lockdown seem to keep things flat rather than decreasing. Next week: look at international picture to see what we can learn from them as they leave their own lockdowns. …and US Thanksgiving. In England, we should expect to see cases keep reducing over next week – might be below 10K cases a day again by end of next week. BUT, will new tiers be enough to keep things reducing? Next week we will also be spending the session discussing the new vaccines and addressing some common concerns about them.
