Population Quantity, Introduction Quality and Mobility Demographic - - PDF document

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Pop QQM Behrman & Kohler Population Quantity, Introduction Quality and Mobility Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Jere R. Behrman and Hans-Peter Kohler Population Mobility Policy Implications GCF Conference

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Population Quantity, Quality and Mobility

Jere R. Behrman and Hans-Peter Kohler

GCF Conference – Geneva, Switzerland Towards a Better Global Economy

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Introduction

POP QQM affected by past economic developments and help shape future economy Presentation Considers

I How POP QQM evolved recently and projected to evolve in

future

I Possible important policy implications that might lead to a

better global economy

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Demographic Transition

Lee, Ronald D. (2003). The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change. Journal

f Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 167-190

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Demographic Transition

World Population Size

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Billions

2.5 7.0 10.6 9.3 8.1 10.1 6.2 15.8 1.0 High Medium Low

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2010

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Demographic Transition

World Population Growth

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Percentage

2.06 1.16 0.77 0.06

0.81

High Medium Low

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2010

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Demographic Transition

Increasing well-being despite rapid population growth attributed to six factors:

I Market responses I Innovation I Globalization I Urbanization I Fertility decline I Investments in children and child quality

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Population and Food

Real agricultural prices and world population, 1900–2010

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Diverse Challenges

Looking forward: a diverse set of challenges

I Almost-global accomplishment of longer lives and lower

fertility

I Population aging in high and middle income countries I Declining population growth and population aging in

MICs and some LICs

I Youth bulge in many MLICs I Gender imbalances – the masculinization of Asia and the

feminization of old age

I Continued significant population growth in selected LICs

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Taxonomy of Population Q&Q

Population Quantity and Quality, Looking Forward from 2012

Late Stages in DT and Population Quantity Low Much of South Asia Medium Much of East Asia High Most OECD countries High Fertility, High Population Growth Potential "Demographic Dividend" Post-Transition Older Population Structure Population Quality (Health, Nutrition, Education) Much of Sub-Saharan Africa Most of Latin America and the Carribean

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Education

Education is accumulation of knowledge

I Education occurs in many venues I Education also occurs over the life cycle I Emphasis heavily on one form of education, formal

schooling

I Most information on formal schooling, some on early

childhood development (ECD)

I Schooling enrollment has expanded impressively, although

quality problems remain

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

GDP Growth by Education

GDP Growth by Educational Attainment

14 50% no education 40% primary 10% secondary 50% no education 30% primary 15% secondary 5% tertiary 90% primary 10% secondary 50% primary 50% secondary 12 10 8 6 4 2

Scenarios Annual GDP growth rate (%)

1 2 3 4

Source: Lutz, Wolfgang; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Sanderson, Warren (2008). The Demography of Educational

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

World Pop by Education Level

Population (billions)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GET CER CEN FT

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Years

Population 0-14 No education Primary Secondary Tertiary

Source: Lutz, Wolfgang; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Sanderson, Warren (2008). The Demography of Educational Attainment and Economic Growth. Science, 319(5866), 1047-1048

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Early Childhood Education

Effect on Cognitive Skills in MLICs Intervention type Median Range Center-based preschool and day care 0.33 0.06–1.15 Parent and parent- child interactions 0.28

0.05–0.80

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging

Aging Shifting Disease Burden

Population Mobility Policy Implications

Global Population Aging

Proportion of Population Age 60 and over, 1950–2050

             

 

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging

Aging Shifting Disease Burden

Population Mobility Policy Implications

Shifting Disease Burdens

Global Death Ranks for Top 8 Causes of Death in 2010

4 Lower respiratory infections –18 (–24 to –11) 5 Lung cancer 48 (24 to 61) 1 Ischaemic heart disease 35 (29 to 39) 2 Stroke 26 (14 to 32) 6 HIV/AIDS 396 (323 to 465) 7 Diarrhoea –42 (–49 to –35) 8 Road injury 47 (18 to 86) 3 COPD –7 (–12 to 0) 3·6 (3 to 4) 5·8 (5 to 10) 1·0 (1 to 1) 2·0 (2 to 2) 6·4 (5 to 8) 6·7 (5 to 9) 8·4 (5 to 11) 3·4 (3 to 4) 1 Ischaemic heart disease Disorder Mean rank (95% UI) % change (95% UI) 2010

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility

Urbanization International Migration

Policy Implications

Urbanization

I In 1800 only about 3% of world population lived in urban

areas

I Today, 50% of world population in urban areas I First city with 1+ million was probably London (in 1811) I Today, 456 cities with > 1 million inhabitants I 1.4 billion people live in cities with >1 million I Currently, 23 cities with >10 million population I By 2025, 37 cities with >10 million population

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility

Urbanization International Migration

Policy Implications

Urban Population by Region

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 — 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 Africa Asia Europe Latin Amer- ica

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility

Urbanization International Migration

Policy Implications

International Migration

Stock of international migrants 2010

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Policy Implications

Important aspects of policy recommendations

I Distributional and efficiency policy motives: Policy

hierarchies with direct and prices tending to be highest, tradeoffs or complementarities.

I Assessing probable rates of return to policies

challenging

I Incentives and commitment schemes

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Policies: Population

I High total fertility rate (TFR) contexts: family planning

information, subsidies for contraceptives and a broader range of reproductive health services.

I Low TFR contexts: adapt to accommodate child rearing. I Public pension systems: based on expected years of

remaining life given fixed characteristics.

I Increased labor market flexibility in relevant (LMICs) to

permit exploiting the “demographic bonus”

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Policies: Education

I Subsidies based on distribution and efficiency I Increase parental knowledge of importance of and means of

early-life child stimulation

I Pre-school programs for children 3-5 years old I Increased incentives for enrollment of girls; increased

incentives for boys to progress through school

I Schooling policies (a) neutrality wrt school ownership, (b)

monitor quality of schooling, (c) incentives for improving schooling quality

I More general education over life cycle

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Policies: Health & Nutrition

I Where malnutrition high: macro nutrients and

micronutrients

I Investments in adult health (“healthy aging”) to facilitate

higher productivity at older ages.

I Prevention of common chronic diseases: behavioral and

structural changes

I Health systems in LMICs: reorient to changing realities of

disease composition

I Social safety nets, health and pension systems untied

from labor market participation.

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Policies: Urbanization

I Align transportation system incentives with efficiency

and distributional motives

I Decentralize mega-cities into independent districts I Strengthen legislation, incentives and enforcement on

quality of life

I Adopt more effective crime prevention policies I Require city zoning to include some minimum green space

and parks

I Reduce barriers to migration within countries but make

incentives for migration more closely reflect social rates of return

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Policies: International Migration

I Migration policies in receiving countries that are informed

by demographic, economic and social needs

I Frameworks for transitory migration between countries I Improve monitoring of transitory movements related to

transmission of infectious diseases

I Liberalize migration among countries (including migration

among LMICs)

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Four Promising Policy Areas

I Enhancing freedom to move, internally and internationally. I Strengthening the foundation for life I Supporting aging with dignity and equity I Improving incentives for social service delivery

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Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications

Thank You

Jere Behrman, jbehrman@econ.upenn.edu; Hans-Peter Kohler, hpkohler@pop.upenn.edu