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Consequences of large-scale climate change on the nutrients supplied to upwelling ecosystems 1900 2100 Ryan R. Rykaczewski University of South Carolina ryk @ sc.edu

  1. Projected ¡changes ¡in ¡winds ¡are ¡more ¡nuanced ¡than ¡an ¡ increase ¡or ¡a ¡decrease ¡ Projected responses of alongshore winds do not confirm Bakun’s (1990) predictions. Multi-model comparison does, however, demonstrate some consistent responses when examining seasonal and latitudinal trends across the four upwelling systems.

  2. upwelling downwelling downwelling upwelling

  3. Projected ¡changes ¡in ¡winds ¡are ¡more ¡nuanced ¡than ¡an ¡ increase ¡or ¡a ¡decrease ¡ The Canary and Benguela also show latitudinally dependent changes in upwelling magnitude.

  4. downwelling upwelling upwelling downwelling

  5. Perhaps, ¡for ¡now, ¡we ¡can ¡cross ¡this ¡one ¡off… ¡ Eastern boundary current upwelling ecosystems  ¡ ? ¡ Previously posed hypotheses: Bakun Roemmich and McGowan ( Science , 1990) ( Science ,1995) increased upwelling rate increased stratification depth depth vs. • increased vertical • decreased mixing transport • increased • decreased nutrient supply nutrient supply

  6. Temperature ¡increases ¡across ¡the ¡basin ¡ The magnitude of the upper-ocean temperature change varies, but the direction of the change is uniform: the whole Pacific becomes warmer at the surface.

  7. Changes ¡in ¡local ¡forcing ¡suggest ¡decreased ¡nutrient ¡supply ¡

  8. Winter ¡mixed-­‑layer ¡depth ¡shoals ¡ Projected responses include a shallower mixed-layer depth, warmer surface layer, and little change in winds. Given the historical record, we might expect decreased nutrient supply and reduced production.

  9. Surface-­‑layer ¡NO 3 ¡increases ¡despite ¡stra@fica@on ¡and ¡winds ¡ 35% decrease in the average 85% increase in average nitrogen nitrate concentration in the concentration between 2000 and North Pacific (20° N to 65° N). 2100 along the US West Coast. Rykaczewski and Dunne (2010, GRL)

  10. Local ¡changes ¡cannot ¡explain ¡regional ¡nutrient ¡changes ¡ Local conditions vary in the 21 st century, but not in a consistent manner that can explain the long-term increase in nitrate supply . Changes in: alongshore winds, alongshore currents, stratification and mixing of the water column, ? riverine input, local biological rates Surprise from below ? ? ? ? ? Remote changes in the properties of the deep source waters are more important than local physical conditions.

  11. NO3 ¡budget ¡in ¡a ¡control ¡volume ¡ FLUX KEY: from North 0.8 kmol s -1 0.3 Sv 1860, 60-yr NO 3 H 2 O avg: flux flux 1.0 kmol s -1 0.2 Sv 2081-2100 avg: NO 3 H 2 O Δ = 0.1 kmol s -1 0.0 Sv flux flux change = Δ NO 3 Δ H 2 O from West 200 m 3.1 kmol s -1 2.4 Sv 1 st column: NO 3 flux 5.8 kmol s -1 3.1 Sv 2 nd column: H 2 O flux Δ = 2.7 kmol s -1 0.7 Sv from Below from South 6.3 kmol s -1 0.7 Sv 0.5 kmol s -1 0.5 Sv 10 kmol s -1 0.8 Sv 1.1 kmol s -1 0.4 Sv Δ = 4.0 kmol s -1 0.1 Sv Δ = 0.6 kmol s -1 -0.1 Sv

  12. NO3 ¡budget ¡in ¡a ¡control ¡volume ¡ FLUX KEY: from North 0.8 kmol s -1 0.3 Sv 1860, 60-yr NO 3 H 2 O avg: flux flux 1.0 kmol s -1 0.2 Sv 2081-2100 avg: NO 3 H 2 O Δ = 0.1 kmol s -1 0.0 Sv flux flux change = Δ NO 3 Δ H 2 O from West 200 m 3.1 kmol s -1 2.4 Sv 1 st column: NO 3 flux 5.8 kmol s -1 3.1 Sv 2 nd column: H 2 O flux Δ = 2.7 kmol s -1 0.7 Sv from Below from South 6.3 kmol s -1 0.7 Sv 0.5 kmol s -1 0.5 Sv 10 kmol s -1 0.8 Sv 1.1 kmol s -1 0.4 Sv Δ = 4.0 kmol s -1 0.1 Sv Δ = 0.6 kmol s -1 -0.1 Sv + 60% + 10% But WHY?

  13. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ What makes deep, cold waters nutrient rich? Photosynthesis Respiration

  14. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Nutrients are depleted by photosynthesis in the surface, sunlit layer. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 and nutrients Released: O 2 Respiration

  15. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Biological respiration (microzooplankton and bacteria) remineralize these nutrients in the deeper, colder layer of the ocean. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 and nutrients Released: O 2 Respiration Consumed: O 2 Released: CO 2 and nutrients

  16. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration Consumed: O 2 Released: CO 2 , nutrients

  17. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration Consumed: O 2 Released: CO 2 , nutrients

  18. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration Consumed: O 2 nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2

  19. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration Consumed: O 2 nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2

  20. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration Consumed: O 2 nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2

  21. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration Consumed: O 2 nutrients nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2 CO 2

  22. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration Consumed: O 2 nutrients nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2 CO 2

  23. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration Consumed: O 2 nutrients nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2 CO 2

  24. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration nutrients Consumed: O 2 nutrients nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2 CO 2 CO 2

  25. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration nutrients Consumed: O 2 nutrients nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2 CO 2 CO 2

  26. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration nutrients Consumed: O 2 nutrients nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2 CO 2 CO 2

  27. Review ¡of ¡photosynthesis ¡and ¡respira@on ¡ Over time, phytoplankton continue to sink out of the surface layer to depth, where nutrients and CO 2 accumulate while O 2 is depleted. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time Respiration nutrients nutrients Consumed: O 2 nutrients nutrients Released: CO 2 , nutrients CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2

  28. Ven@la@on ¡of ¡deep ¡waters ¡interrupts ¡this ¡accumula@on ¡ This accumulation is interrupted only when the deep water mass is ventilated with the atmosphere.

  29. Ven@la@on ¡of ¡deep ¡waters ¡interrupts ¡this ¡accumula@on ¡ This accumulation is interrupted only when the deep water mass is ventilated with the atmosphere. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time nutrients Respiration Consumed: O 2 CO 2 O 2 Released: CO 2 , nutrients

  30. Ven@la@on ¡of ¡deep ¡waters ¡interrupts ¡this ¡accumula@on ¡ This accumulation is interrupted only when the deep water mass is ventilated with the atmosphere. Mixing supplies nutrients and permits gas exchange. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 time nutrients Respiration Consumed: O 2 CO 2 O 2 Released: CO 2 , nutrients

  31. Ven@la@on ¡of ¡deep ¡waters ¡interrupts ¡this ¡accumula@on ¡ This accumulation is interrupted only when the deep water mass is ventilated with the atmosphere. Mixing supplies nutrients and permits gas exchange. Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients DEEP MIXING EVENT! Released: O 2 time nutrients Respiration Consumed: O 2 CO 2 O 2 Released: CO 2 , nutrients Gas & nutrient exchange

  32. Ven@la@on ¡of ¡deep ¡waters ¡interrupts ¡this ¡accumula@on ¡ This accumulation is interrupted only when the deep water mass is ventilated with the atmosphere. Mixing supplies nutrients and permits gas exchange. O 2 Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 CO 2 time nutrients Respiration Consumed: O 2 CO 2 O 2 Released: CO 2 , nutrients Gas & nutrient exchange

  33. Ven@la@on ¡of ¡deep ¡waters ¡interrupts ¡this ¡accumula@on ¡ This accumulation is interrupted only when the deep water mass is ventilated with the atmosphere. Mixing supplies nutrients and permits gas exchange. O 2 Photosynthesis Consumed: CO 2 , nutrients Released: O 2 CO 2 time time O 2 CO 2 nutrients Respiration nutrients Consumed: O 2 CO 2 O 2 Released: CO 2 , nutrients Gas & nutrient exchange

  34. Anthropogenic ¡changes ¡are ¡large ¡scale ¡and ¡long ¡term Future warming is unlike observed variability in that it is global and persistent. Assumption that local forcing dominates local changes is incorrect. Capotondi et al. (2012) ¡

  35. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  36. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  37. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  38. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  39. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  40. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  41. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  42. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  43. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  44. Waters ¡that ¡are ¡upwelled ¡in ¡the ¡future ¡have ¡a ¡“deeper, ¡ darker, ¡history” ¡ more ¡surface ¡mixing ¡ less ¡mixing ¡ 1860 ¡ 2081-­‑2100 ¡

  45. What ¡general ¡rela@onships ¡can ¡be ¡gleaned ¡from ¡this ¡example? ¡ The most surprising finding for me was realization of the dependence of coastal properties on basin-scale changes. Three main factors control the dynamics of nutrients found in a water parcel: 1. Preformed concentrations— the concentration of nutrients in the water parcel when it is subducted from the euphotic zone at its place of origin. 2. The rate at which organic matter is remineralized, returning inorganic nutrients to the water mass. 3. The duration of time over which the parcel has accumulated remineralized nutrients ( i.e. , the ventilation age)

  46. History ¡of ¡California ¡Current ¡source ¡waters ¡ slope: accumulation rate of remineralized NO 3 intercept: initial, preformed NO 3 Pre-Indust. y = 0.34 x + 1.7 2081-2100 y = 0.27 x + 5.4

  47. History ¡of ¡California ¡Current ¡source ¡waters ¡ slope: accumulation rate of remineralized NO 3 intercept: initial, preformed NO 3 increase ¡in ¡ preformed ¡NO 3 ¡ Pre-Indust. y = 0.34 x + 1.7 2081-2100 y = 0.27 x + 5.4

  48. History ¡of ¡California ¡Current ¡source ¡waters ¡ increase ¡in ¡ remineralized ¡ NO 3 ¡ slope: accumulation rate of remineralized NO 3 intercept: initial, preformed NO 3 increase ¡in ¡ preformed ¡NO 3 ¡ Pre-Indust. y = 0.34 x + 1.7 2081-2100 y = 0.27 x + 5.4

  49. Is ¡this ¡result ¡for ¡the ¡CCE ¡applicable ¡to ¡all ¡upwelling ¡systems? ¡ Increased stratification is a global phenomenon and is consistent across model projections. Capotondi et al. , (2012, JGR)

  50. 2040: ¡Global ¡age ¡and ¡NO 3 ¡changes ¡(150 ¡m) ¡ years µ mol L -1

  51. 2055: ¡Global ¡age ¡and ¡NO 3 ¡changes ¡(150 ¡m) ¡ years µ mol L -1

  52. 2070: ¡Global ¡age ¡and ¡NO 3 ¡changes ¡(150 ¡m) ¡ years µ mol L -1

  53. 2085: ¡Global ¡age ¡and ¡NO 3 ¡changes ¡(150 ¡m) ¡ years µ mol L -1

  54. 2100: ¡Global ¡age ¡and ¡NO 3 ¡changes ¡(150 ¡m) ¡ years µ mol L -1

  55. 2100: ¡Global ¡age ¡and ¡NO 3 ¡changes ¡(150 ¡m) ¡ years µ mol L -1

  56. Future ¡global ¡warming ¡inhibits ¡this ¡ven@la@on ¡ Currently, deep waters which supply the California Current originate near about 150° W, or about 1600 km offshore in the Central Pacific. These deep waters eventually upwell at the coast, rich with nutrients. 150° W Deep winter mixing current time climate nutrients state nutrients CO 2 CO 2

  57. Future ¡global ¡warming ¡inhibits ¡this ¡ven@la@on ¡ Future warmer sea-surface temperatures associated with global warming increase stratification across the entire Pacific. Waters upwelling in along the eastern boundary of the Pacific contain much higher concentrations of nutrients and CO 2 and reduced O 2 . 180° Reduced mixing Year time 2100 nutrients nutrients nutrients nutrients CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2

  58. pH ¡and ¡oxygen ¡are ¡also ¡sensi@ve ¡to ¡ven@la@on ¡changes ¡ Rykaczewski and Dunne (2010, GRL)

  59. pH ¡and ¡oxygen ¡are ¡also ¡sensi@ve ¡to ¡ven@la@on ¡changes ¡ Rykaczewski and Dunne (2010, GRL)

  60. pH ¡and ¡oxygen ¡are ¡also ¡sensi@ve ¡to ¡ven@la@on ¡changes ¡ Few survey programs have been measuring NO 3 or O 2 long enough to distinguish decadal variability from long-term trends. However, those that have examined O 2 identified consistent long-term trends: Whitney, et al . (2007) Nakanowatari, et al. (2007) Chan, et al. (2008) Bograd, et al. (2008) Aksnes and Ohman (2009) Whitney, et al . (2007, Prog. Oceanogr. )

  61. pH ¡and ¡oxygen ¡are ¡also ¡sensi@ve ¡to ¡ven@la@on ¡changes ¡

  62. Where ¡did ¡I ¡go ¡wrong ¡in ¡my ¡expecta@on ¡of ¡ecosystem ¡ response ¡to ¡increased ¡stra@fica@on? Roemmich and McGowan (1995) were keen to observe a relationship between increased local stratification and decreased biological production over interannual to decadal time scales… But hypotheses constructed given observations of past, interannual climate variability cannot be directly applied to the global climate change question. This brings me to my first realization concerning fisheries-climate interactions…

  63. Point ¡1 ¡of ¡3: ¡Understanding ¡the ¡past ¡is ¡some@mes ¡ insufficient ¡ Point 1 of 3 An ¡understanding ¡of ¡the ¡past ¡is ¡some@mes ¡ insufficient ¡to ¡project ¡future ¡ecosystem ¡responses. ¡ ¡ Our observations of past ecosystem changes have been associated with local physical forcing over relatively short temporal (seasonal to decadal) and spatial scales. This biases our hypotheses about future responses.

  64. Past ¡empirical ¡correla@ons ¡may ¡fail ¡in ¡the ¡long ¡term ¡ The nitrate-temperature Conventional view of CC variability: relationship is negative over Cool Period Warm Period replete nutrients limited nutrients interannual to multidecadal high biologic production low biologic production periods. temp [NO 3 ]

  65. Past ¡empirical ¡correla@ons ¡may ¡fail ¡in ¡the ¡long ¡term ¡ The nitrate-temperature Conventional view of CC variability: relationship is negative over Cool Period Warm Period replete nutrients limited nutrients interannual to multidecadal high biologic production low biologic production periods. temp [NO 3 ]

  66. Past ¡empirical ¡correla@ons ¡may ¡fail ¡in ¡the ¡long ¡term ¡ The nitrate-temperature Conventional view of CC variability: relationship is negative over Cool Period Warm Period replete nutrients limited nutrients interannual to multidecadal high biologic production low biologic production periods. temp [NO 3 ] linear expectation for [NO 3 ] given historical temperature relationship

  67. Past ¡empirical ¡correla@ons ¡may ¡fail ¡in ¡the ¡long ¡term ¡ The nitrate-temperature Conventional view of CC variability: relationship is negative over Cool Period Warm Period May not apply to long- replete nutrients limited nutrients interannual to multidecadal term warming high biologic production low biologic production periods. temp [NO 3 ] Do not extrapolate to future warming! ESM 2.1 projection for [NO3] linear expectation for [NO 3 ] given historical temperature relationship

  68. Point ¡2 ¡of ¡3: ¡Boundary ¡condi@ons ¡cannot ¡be ¡assumed ¡ constant ¡ In the case of eastern boundary currents, changes in water mass properties at the oceanic boundary may be the major source of climate-change related trends in the future. Point 2 of 3 Changes ¡in ¡boundary ¡condi@ons ¡may ¡be ¡essen@al ¡to ¡ projec@ng ¡future ¡responses ¡to ¡climate ¡change. ¡ ¡Use ¡ cau@on ¡if ¡boundaries ¡are ¡assumed ¡to ¡be ¡constant! ¡ ¡ While one might reasonably assume climatological boundary conditions for a regional model that is limited to a few years in scope, I would advise against relying on a regional model for longer projections.

  69. Point ¡3 ¡of ¡3: ¡Explore ¡new ¡ ecological ¡hypotheses ¡ Point 3 of 3 For ¡fellow ¡biologists— ¡Let’s ¡loosen ¡our ¡grip ¡a ¡bit ¡on ¡ some ¡of ¡the ¡past ¡hypotheses ¡rela@ng ¡lower-­‑trophic-­‑ level ¡ecosystem ¡processes ¡with ¡physical ¡forcing. ¡

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