Per Pinstrup-Andersen Think development Think WIDER WIDER Helsinki - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Per Pinstrup-Andersen Think development Think WIDER WIDER Helsinki - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Political economy aspects of agricultural and food policy Per Pinstrup-Andersen Think development Think WIDER WIDER Helsinki September 13-15, 2018 Political economy analyses at WIDER Integral parts of many projects, including: The

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Political economy aspects of agricultural and food policy

Per Pinstrup-Andersen Think development – Think WIDER

WIDER Helsinki September 13-15, 2018

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Political economy analyses at WIDER

▪ Integral parts of many projects, including:

▪ The political economy of social protection (189) ▪ The political economy of clean energy

transitions (44)

▪ Foreign aid and democracy in Africa (42) ▪ The political economy of food price policy (64)

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My main message

A political economy analytical approach is needed to better understand and predict behavior by relevant decision-making groups and recommend action to achieve sustainable healthy diets for all

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Behavior of food chain decision-makers

▪ A sharper focus on the behavior of decision-

makers in food and systems

▪ Improved understanding of the total decision-

making process and decision space

▪ Relative power, incentives, regulations, knowled ▪ Seek win-wins and trade-offs by group ▪ Recommendations based on the decision-

makers’ reality

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Decision-making Groups (1)

▪ Various parts of government ▪ Agribusiness sector ▪ Civil society: citizens and advocacy groups ▪ News Media ▪ International agencies ▪ Intended beneficiaries ▪ Farmers, consumers

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Decision-making Groups (2)

▪ Food policy analysts and advisors ▪ Agricultural research organizations ▪ Foreign direct investors ▪ Venture capitalists

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Behavioral motivations

▪ Utility maximization? ▪ Legitimacy goals

▪ Governments ▪ Private sector (Social responsibility)

▪ Revenue (profit) goals ▪ Humanitarian goals

▪ Protection of food security, nutrition, health. ▪ Avoiding deteriorating poverty

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a The political economy of response to food price fluctuations 2007- 2012: Key findings from a WIDER network study in 14 countries

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Wheat Prices in the World Market, South Africa and Bangladesh, 2005-2012

Source: Baltzer (2013)

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Rice Prices in the World Market, China and India, 2005-2012

Source: Baltzer (2013)

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Maize Prices in the World Market, Malawi and Zambia, 2005-2012

Source: Baltzer (2013)

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (1)

▪ Predictions and projections ▪ News media and books

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (1)

▪ Predictions and projections ▪ News media and books ▪ Conflict of interest?

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (1)

▪ Predictions and projections ▪ News media and books ▪ Conflict of interest? ▪ International and national sources

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (1)

▪ Predictions and projections ▪ News media and books ▪ Conflict of interest? ▪ International and national sources ▪ Short-term government interventions

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (2)

▪ Protection and compensation

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (2)

▪ Protection and compensation ▪ Export restrictions

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (2)

▪ Protection and compensation ▪ Export restrictions ▪ Cuts in import tariffs

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (2)

▪ Protection and compensation ▪ Export restrictions ▪ Cuts in import tariffs ▪ Focus on national supplies

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (2)

▪ Protection and compensation ▪ Export restrictions ▪ Cuts in import tariffs ▪ Focus on national supplies ▪ Irrational expectations

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The Behavioral Responses to Recent Food Price Volatility (2)

▪ Protection and compensation ▪ Export restrictions ▪ Cuts in import tariffs ▪ Focus on national supplies ▪ Irrational expectations ▪ Price stabilization

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Political Economy Lessons (1)

  • 1. Protecting government legitimacy
  • 2. Pursuing domestic policies irrespective of

international consequences

  • 3. Unitary government decision-making is

unusual

  • 4. Repeating past or expanding current

policies

  • 5. Relative power of stakeholder group varied
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Political Economy Lessons (2)

  • 6. Increasing urban bias
  • 7. Smallholders versus larger farms
  • 8. Mutual mistrust between government and

the private sector

  • 9. Foreign agencies had little influence
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Recommendations

▪ Protect price signals ▪ Emphasize targeted compensation over price

interventions

▪ Risk management tools for all system agents ▪ Seek high levels of price transmission ▪ Seek low levels of trade restrictions

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Recommendations (2)

▪ Improve management of cereal stocks ▪ Seek competitive behavior in supply chain ▪ Strengthen international agreements ▪ Improve public-private collaboration

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Sources

▪ Per Pinstrup-Andersen (Editor). Food Price

Policy in an era of Market Instability. Oxford University Press, 2015.

▪ https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/food-

price-policy-era-market-instability