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Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Context of Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Context of Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Context of Climate Change Per Pinstrup-Andersen Per Pinstrup-Andersen Copenhagen University January 31, 2011 Hypothetical Patterns of Negative Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Climate Change
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Climate Change
Temperature GHG Concentration Volatility in Weather Patterns
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Volatility in Weather Patterns
Drought Flooding Strong Winds Irregular Rainfall Patterns Production Volatility Patterns
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Climate Change Natural Resource Management Future Production and Production Volatility
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Production Volatility
Supply Responses Government Policy Market Information Speculation Government Policies Energy Prices Market Information Energy Prices Demand Changes
Price Volatility
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Maize Weekly Price Minus 12-Month Moving Average
20 40 60 80 100
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
20
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Rice Weekly Price Minus 12-Month Moving Average
200 250 300 350
- 150
- 100
- 50
50 100 150
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Wheat Weekly Price Minus 12-Month Moving Average
100 150
- 100
- 50
50 1998 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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What to do?
Mitigation or adaptation? Risk management
Infrastructure and markets International trade rules Social safety nets
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What to do?
Integrated, cohesive policy response
Climate change Natural resource management Food system Food system Health and nutrition
Full costing Seek multiple wins
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Environmental Kuznets Curve
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Hypothetical Relationships Between Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining
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Hypothetical Relationships Between Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining
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