Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Context of Climate Change Per Pinstrup-Andersen Per Pinstrup-Andersen Copenhagen University January 31, 2011
Hypothetical Patterns of Negative Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
Climate Change Volatility in Temperature GHG Concentration Weather Patterns
Volatility in Weather Patterns Irregular Drought Flooding Strong Winds Rainfall Patterns Patterns Production Volatility
Natural Resource Climate Change Management Future Production and Production Volatility
Production Volatility Speculation Supply Responses Government Policies Government Policy Energy Prices Energy Prices Market Information Market Information Demand Changes Price Volatility
Maize Weekly Price Minus 12-Month Moving Average 100 80 60 40 20 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
Rice Weekly Price Minus 12-Month Moving Average 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150
Wheat Weekly Price Minus 12-Month Moving Average 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 1998 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
What to do? � Mitigation or adaptation? � Risk management � Infrastructure and markets � International trade rules � Social safety nets
What to do? � Integrated, cohesive policy response � Climate change � Natural resource management � Food system � Food system � Health and nutrition � Full costing � Seek multiple wins
Environmental Kuznets Curve
Hypothetical Relationships Between Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining
Hypothetical Relationships Between Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining
Hypothetical Relationships Between Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining
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