[PDF] - Overview Overview Vehicle Emissions: Applying Californias PDF Document

SLIDE 1

1 The Path to Near-Zero Vehicle Emissions: Applying California’s Experience To China

Dr. Alan C. Lloyd

Chairman California Air Resources Board And Michael P. Walsh Consultant

Beijing, China November 12-13, 2003

HARBIN SHENYANG TIANJIN ÜRÜMQI LANZHOU XI´AN SHANGHAI WUHAN CHENGDU GUANGZHOU LHASA BEIJING

Overview Overview

California – Air Quality and Emission Reduction Strategy – Status of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Regulation – The California Fuel Cell Partnership – Reducing Climate Change Emissions from Vehicles China – Rapid Vehicle Growth – Environmental & Energy Impacts – The Path Forward- Applying California’s Experience

Air Pollution is Widespread Air Pollution is Widespread

Days Over State Ozone Standard Days Over State PM10 Standard 0-5 Days >100 Days 6-50 Days 50-100 Days

Based on 2000 Monitoring Data

Motor Vehicles are Motor Vehicles are Dominant Emission Source Dominant Emission Source

Industry & areawide

Mobile - 69%

SLIDE 2

2 Many Vehicle Sources are Major Many Vehicle Sources are Major Emitters Emitters

2010 - Los Angeles Air Basin 2010 - Los Angeles Air Basin

Reactive Organic Reactive Organic Gases Gases Oxides of Oxides of Nitrogen Nitrogen

20% 43% Off- Road 37%

Cars & LDT Larger Trucks

75% 6% Off- Road 19%

Cars & LDT Larger Trucks

The Challenge The Challenge

22 million cars in California Average age of passenger cars is 10

years

Average daily mileage of 35 miles California VMT continues to grow

~2% per year

The Low The Low-

Emission Vehicle/Zero

Emission Vehicle/Zero Emission Vehicle Solution Emission Vehicle Solution

Analysis in 1990 showed that

conventional technology would not be sufficient

Some part of the fleet had to emit

near “zero” levels

LEV/ZEV program adopted

What Has Happened Since What Has Happened Since 1990? 1990?

Batteries fell short

– performance – cost

Conventional technology over-achieved

(matched battery vehicle charging emissions)

New near-zero emission technologies

introduced

– hybrids – gaseous fuels

SLIDE 3

3 Evolution of ARB Auto Controls Evolution of ARB Auto Controls

Implementation: 1994 Implementation: 1994 -

2010

2010

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 g/mile HC + NOx

Low Emission Vehicle I Cleaner Gasoline Low Emission Vehicle II

Goal:Zero

6 %

10 % Mandate

2 %

Clean Hybrids (Path 2)

2 - 4 % >0 - 2 % Battery Electric

H2 Fuel Cell (Path 3)

ZEV Regulation Restructured in ZEV Regulation Restructured in 2003 for More Flexibility 2003 for More Flexibility

Near-Zero Conventional Vehicles (Path 1)

Vehicle Production Scenario Vehicle Production Scenario

(example) (example)

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Model Year

ZEV Hybrids Near-Zero

Near zero exhaust emissions Zero evaporative emissions 15 year/150,000 mile warranty On-board diagnostics 140,000 sales in 2003 200,000 sales in 2004

Path 1: Near Path 1: Near-

Zero Emission

Zero Emission Conventional Vehicles Conventional Vehicles

SLIDE 4

4

Three models now

available

More models coming ~ 20,000 sales

expected in 2005

Path 2: Hybrid Electric Path 2: Hybrid Electric Vehicles Vehicles

Lexus 400 H Hybrid

(coming soon)

Toyota Prius Hybrid Honda Civic Hybrid

“ZEV enabling” technology:

electric drive train
batteries
power management

Hybrid Electric Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles Incentives for Near Incentives for Near-

Zero Emission

Zero Emission Hybrid Electric Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Extra regulatory incentives (credits)

encourage “strong” hybridization

Incentives based on:

–system voltage –power output of the electric motor

Short term incentives for 42-volt

systems

Path 3: Battery Electric and Path 3: Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Vehicles Fuel Cell Vehicles

Full size battery electric Neighborhood electric Fuel cell

SLIDE 5

5 Full Full-

Sized Battery Electric

Sized Battery Electric Vehicles Vehicles

Over 2,500

sold or leased

Cost and

range issues shifts focus:

– smaller vehicles – fuel cells

Neighborhood Electric Vehicles Neighborhood Electric Vehicles

25 mph top speed limited range 2-4 passengers Over 8,000 sold

r leased in

response to ZEV regulation

Fuel Cell Vehicles Fuel Cell Vehicles

Promising technology Significant cost,

manufacturing and performance challenges

Volume production

expected 2010 or later

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Benefits Hydrogen Fuel Cell Benefits

No direct smog-forming or greenhouse

gas emissions

Potential for extremely low lifecycle

(“well to wheel”) emissions

Better fuel economy, greater efficiency Quiet and smooth operation

SLIDE 6

6 Transition to Fuel Cells Transition to Fuel Cells

Prototype fuel cell vehicles now

being demonstrated

California Fuel Cell Partnership

Promotes fuel cell

vehicle commercialization

Infrastructure Safety Public Education

California Fuel Cell California Fuel Cell Partnership Partnership Fuel Infrastructure Fuel Infrastructure

Liquid H2 storage
Delivers gaseous hydrogen

at two pressures:

3600 psi & 5000 psi
Fill time < 4 minutes

2400+ fueling events

Fuel Cell Vehicles Fuel Cell Vehicles -

Today

Today

5,000+ riders/drivers 41 cars Over 122,000 miles

SLIDE 7

7 Global Climate Change is a Global Climate Change is a Major Challenge Major Challenge

May be an opportunity for hybrid

vehicles

Technology mix will depend on fuel

cell progress

Climate Change is a Major Climate Change is a Major Concern for California Concern for California

Agriculture

Crop Yields Irrigation Demands

Coastal Areas

Erosion of Beaches Inundation of Coastal Wetlands Additional Costs to Protect Coastal Communities

Species and Natural Areas

Loss of Habitat and Species

Health

Air Quality - Respiratory Illness Weather-related Mortality Infectious and Tropical Diseases

Climate Changes Sea Level Rise Temperature Increase Precipitation Patterns and Extremes Forests

Forest Composition Geographic Range of Forests Forest Health and Productivity

Water Resources

Water Supply Water Quality Competition for Water

Source: Anne Grambsch, 1998

Hotter Days Lead to Higher Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog Emissions and More Smog

Source: Air Resources Board, 2000

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 40 60 80 100 120

Ozone (ppm) Temperature (oF) hLos Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998) ) h10 warmest years of the last century all occurred within the last 15 years.

California Ozone Standard

Residential 9% Industrial 13% Transportation 58% Electricity Generation 16% Commercial 4%

Transportation is California’s Transportation is California’s Largest Source of CO Largest Source of CO2

2

SLIDE 8

8 Climate Change Legislation in Climate Change Legislation in California California

Achieve maximum feasible and cost-

effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light trucks

2009 and later model years

Climate Change Regulation Climate Change Regulation

Regulations will provide flexibility,

not mandate specific technology

Hybrid vehicles will compete with

ther emerging technologies

Hybrid’s role will depend on

developments in conventional and fuel cell technology - but increased sales seems certain

Long Long-

Term Vision

Term Vision

The ultimate goal remains -

zero-emission technology

Must be energy-efficient;

reduced climate impact

California is taking the

necessary steps now

Outline: Vehicle Trends & Forecasts Associated Problems Air Pollution Global Warming Oil Imports Advanced Technologies Could Help Solve These Problems

HARBIN SHENYANG TIANJIN ÜRÜMQI LANZHOU XI´AN SHANGHAI WUHAN CHENGDU GUANGZHOU LHASA BEIJING

Where Do We Stand in China?

SLIDE 9

9

Motor Vehicle Production in China 1980 - 2002

Passenger Car

5 222 5 443 42 509 325 1,453 605 2,069 704 2,334 1,090 3,251

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002

(in 1000)

Year

US 20.8% Japan 17.4% Germany 8.7% France 6.3% China 5.5% Korea 5.3% Spain 4.8% Canada 4.5% UK 3.1% 22 Others 23.6%

2002 Total: 58972502

US 20.4% Japan 17.4% Germany 10.2% France 6.5% Spain 5.1% Korea 4.8% Canada 4.5% China 4.1% Mexico 3.3% 22 Others 23.7%

2001 Total: 56067817

US 22.2% Japan 17.7% Germany 9.6% France 5.8% Spain 5.3% Canada 5.2% Korea 5.0% China 3.5% Mexico 3.3% 20 Others 22.4%

2000 Total: 57427303

Not Including Motorcycles, Mopeds

Vehicle Production By Country

China Is Now 5th Largest Producer in the World

Shanghai Auto. Industry Co. 18.9% FAW Group Corp. 17.9% Dongfeng Motor Co. 13.4% Changan Automobile Grp. 10.5% Beijing Automotive Industry Grp. 5.8% Harbin Aircraft Mfg. 5.5% Changhe Aircraft Grp. 4.9% Tianjin Auto. Industry Co. 3.0% Jinbei Auto. Co. 2.7% Nanjing Auto Group 2.7% Guangzhou Auto. Industry Grp. 2.1% Jiangling Motors Grp. 1.6% 30 Others 11.0%

2002 Total: 3133900

Top Five Companies Already Produce 2/3’s of Vehicles

Motor Vehicle Production By Manufacturer

Recent Investments in China’s Vehicle Recent Investments in China’s Vehicle Industry Indicate Substantial Future Growth Industry Indicate Substantial Future Growth

FAW – VW; $1 Billion Venture with Toyota DMC – recent link with Honda; – $1 Billion Venture with Nissan; Peugeot JV SAIC – joint venture with VW & GM; – Already Largest Car Sales in China; GM-Daewoo JV Chang’an Automotive Group - Ford Increased

Investment By $1.5 Billion

SLIDE 10

10 Motorcycle Annual Production and Sales Motorcycle Annual Production and Sales

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year *10,000

Output Sales volume

China is #1 Producer; About 50% World Total

1.78 3.21 5.51 10.4 16.09 18.02

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 5 10 15 20 Millions

China's Vehicle Population (Cars, Trucks & Buses)

Similar to California’s

Growth in the Growth in the Number of Cars in Number of Cars in Beijing Beijing

From 0 to 1 million - From 0 to 1 million - 48 years 48 years From 1 to 2 million - From 1 to 2 million - 6.5 years 6.5 years From 2 to 3 million - From 2 to 3 million - est 3 years est 3 years

Relative Growth Relative Growth Rates Rates

Average Annual Average Annual Growth in Vehicles Growth in Vehicles ~20%/year ~20%/year Average Annual Average Annual Growth in Road Growth in Road Network Network ~3.5%/year ~3.5%/year

Vehicle Growth in Beijing is Vehicle Growth in Beijing is Exploding Exploding

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Millions Tsinghua NAS High NAS Medium NAS Low

Recent Forecasts of Chinese Vehicle Population Tsinghua Also Predicts About 200 Million MC By 2030

SLIDE 11

11 Air Pollution Problem is Already Air Pollution Problem is Already Severe Severe

Carbon monoxide

(CO)

What pollutants are of concern? What pollutants are of concern?

Ozone

(ROG + NOx)

Haze Particles (PM10/PM2.5)

(NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia)

Toxics

Diesel particles
Benzene
Chromium
Asbestos

Greenhouse Gases

CO2, methane

1991-95 Avg. 1997 1998 1999 50 100 150 Days 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Hours Days Over Standard Hours Over Standard

Ozone Trends in Beijing

BEIJING: NOx Concentration In BEIJING: NOx Concentration In 1998 1998

3
0. 000
0. 100
0. 200
0. 300
0. 400
0. 500
0. 600
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
N

O x

( m

g/ m

)
2#
3#
6#

2# and 3# monitoring stations are near to the arteries, and 6# monitoring station is far away from the arteries.

SLIDE 12

12 China: Urban NOx Problems China: Urban NOx Problems

NOx Concentration in Chinese cities

Non-attainment cities Non-attainment for Class II standard Non-attainment for Class III standard year No. Of cities number rate （％） number rate （%） number rate （%） Non-attainment cities for Class III 1995 88 32 36.4 3 3.4 1996 88 27 30.7 25 28.4 2 2.3 Beijing, Guangzhou 1997 94 32 34.1 29 30.9 3 3.2 Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai 1998 96 32 33.3 29 30.2 3 3.1 Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai

Motor Vehicle Pollution in Urban Motor Vehicle Pollution in Urban Areas Areas

Motor vehicles contribute nearly 50% of NOx

emissions in metropolitan cities

About 1/3 of Major Cities Exceed ambient NOx

NAAQS;

CO concentration generally higher than national

standard in traffic areas;

Photochemical pollution emerging in big cities; Vehicles becoming a main source of air pollution in

urban areas.

Health Impacts of Air Pollution in China Health Impacts of Air Pollution in China

4,537,000 Restricted Activity 4,537,000 Restricted Activity Days (As Years) Days (As Years)

Hospitalization Hospitalization Asthma Attacks and Bronchitis Asthma Attacks and Bronchitis

178,000 Premature 178,000 Premature Deaths Deaths

6,779,000 6,779,000 Emergency Room Emergency Room Visits Visits 76,869,000

346,000 For Respiratory Problems

Value of Health Damage Almost 5% of GDP

Source: World Bank

Carbon Dioxide Emissions From the Carbon Dioxide Emissions From the Road Transport Sector Are Road Transport Sector Are Skyrocketing Skyrocketing

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO

2 emission (million tons)

SLIDE 13

13

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 50 100 150 200 250 Million Tonnes Other Crude Oil Fuel Oil Diesel Kerosene Gasoline LPG

Fuel Consumption Trends in China

17.09 22.62 35.47 27.32 36.61 70.27 60.27 69.41

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Million Tons

Oil Imports Have Grown Rapidly in China

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 100 200 300 400 500 Million Tons Road Transport Oil Consumption 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fraction of Total Oil Consumption Consumption Fraction Source: Tsinghua University

Current and Projected Road Transport Oil Demand in China

Road transport oil demand will be over 50% of the total by 2020, and almost 90% by 2030, making it the principal source of oil demand and oil imports at that time.

Efforts in China To Address Urban Air Pollution

Initial Clean Air Strategy Developed

Complete Lead Phase Out by 2000 European Emissions Standards Introduced For Cars & Trucks Tax Incentives For Euro 2 Vehicles

Individual Cities Supplementing National Actions

I/M Pilot Being Developed in Shanghai Alternative Fuels For Buses & Taxis Catalyst Retrofits in Beijing

SLIDE 14

14 Fuel Quality Improvements Fuel Quality Improvements

Eliminated Very Low Octane Fuels Eliminated Lead Additives But

– MTBE – MMT

Gasoline Aromatics Limited To 40% Gasoline Olefins Limited to 35% Sulfur Levels Reduced But Still High

Emission Standards For New Vehicles Time

Before 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

PC ECE 1503 EURO I ← ← ← EURO II ← LDV& LDT ECE 1503 ← EURO I ← ← ← EURO II HDDV None ← EURO I ← ← EURO II ← Motorcycle ECE R 40 ← EURO I ← ← ← EURO II

Pollution Control Measures on Pollution Control Measures on Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicles

Beijing, Shanghai Introduced Euro 2 in 2003

Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Necessary For Continued Progress Necessary For Continued Progress

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 PPM

U S U S 2 6 E U 2 E U 2 5 E U 2 5

9

D e n m a r k S w e d e n C l a s s 1 G e r m a n y 2 3 J a p a n J a p a n 2 4 J a p a n 2 5

7

H

n

g K

n

g S

u

t h K

r

e a 2 6 T a i p e i , C h i n a 2 7 A u s t r a l i a 2 6

150 50 10 800 E U 2 ( E u r

3

) E U 2 5 ( E u r

4

) E U 2 5 / 9 ( E u r

5

? ) C h i n a 2

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Gasoline

350 50 10 2000 500 E U 2 ( E u r

3

) E U 2 5 ( E u r

4

) E U 2 5 / 9 ( E u r

5

? ) C h i n a 2 2 C h i n a C i t y F u e l

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Diesel Fuel

Maximum Sulfur Levels in Chinese & EU Fuels (PPM)

SLIDE 15

15

Zeolite or refractory oxide support Precious Metal

SO SO3

3

SO SO4

4

Transition Metal

H H2

2SO

SO4

4

O O2

2

Sulfate make

Sulfur inhibition

Sulfate Poisoning

SO SO2

2

Sulfur Effects Sulfur Effects Summary of Influence of Fuel Sulfur on Summary of Influence of Fuel Sulfur on Gasoline and Diesel Exhaust Emission Gasoline and Diesel Exhaust Emission Control Devices Control Devices

Control

Technology

– TWC – Oxidation Catalyst – Lean NOx Catalyst – SCR with Urea – Catalytic Filters – NOx Adsorbers – Hybrid With TWC

Sulfur Effects

– Sulfur Inhibition – Sulfur Inhibition, Sulfation – Sulfur Inhibition, Sulfation – Sulfur Inhibition, Sulfation – Sulfur Inhibition, Sulfation – Extreme Sulfur Inhibition – Sulfur Inhibition

China Addressing Emissions & China Addressing Emissions & Energy Consumption But Not Yet On Energy Consumption But Not Yet On The Path To Zero Emissions The Path To Zero Emissions

10th 5-Year Plan

– Hybrid Vehicles Ready For Production – Prototype Fuel Cell Vehicle – Parity With EU Emissions Standards by 2010

Beijing “Green” Olympics Shanghai World Expo New Fuel Economy Program

Advanced Technologies Could Advanced Technologies Could Play A Critical Role Play A Critical Role

Substantially Reduce Conventional

Urban Pollutants

Reduce Oil Consumption Through

High Efficiency

Major Challenges:

– Cost – Vehicle Availability

SLIDE 16

16 Advanced Technology Advanced Technology Alternatives Alternatives

Hybrid Vehicles – Available in Short Term – Very Low Pollution – Very Good Fuel Economy – Low Noise – Urban Buses & Trucks

Very Good in Stop&Go
Lowers Pollution

Exposure Fuel Cell Vehicles

– Longer Term – Near Zero or Zero Pollution Potential – 2 X Fuel Economy or More – Low Noise – Significant Challenges Remain

Cost
Infrastructure

Next Steps in China Next Steps in China

Near Zero Sulfur

Fuels

Euro 4/5 Emissions

Standards

Fuel Efficiency

Standards For Light Duty Vehicles

Emphasize Hybrids

For Special Events

– Olympics – World Expo MOST Investment Offer Incentives To

Offset Higher Price

Special Concessions – Manufacturers – Fleet Managers