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Orinda Union School District: 2018 Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Orinda Union School District: 2018 Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Orinda Union School District: 2018 Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey February 2018 Page 1 February 2018 Overview and Research Objectives Orinda Union School District commissioned Godbe Research to conduct a survey of local voters with the
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Methodology Overview
Ø Data Collection Landline (75), cell phone (63), text to online (238), and email to online (78) interviewing Ø Universe 10,825 likely November 2018 voters in the Orinda Union School District, with a subsample of those likely to vote in the June 2018 election (6,260) Ø Fielding Dates February 6 through February 16, 2018 Ø Interview Length 20 minutes Ø Sample Size 454 Likely November 2018 voters 301 Likely June 2018 voters Ø Margin of Error ± 4.45% Likely November 2018 voters ± 5.51% Likely June 2018 voters
The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely voters in the Orinda Union School District in terms of their gender, age, and political party type.
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Key Findings
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- Q1. Uninformed Support for $55M Student
Health/Safety/Modernization Bond Measure
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2018 June 2018 33.2% 31.7% 31.9% 30.1% 10.4% 11.5% 16.8% 19.0% 7.7% 7.7% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
61.8%
Orinda Union School District Student Health, Safety and Classroom Modernization. To:
- Repair and modernize existing
classrooms;
- Provide classroom air
conditioning and updated electrical systems;
- Upgrade fire safety, classroom
locks, security lighting, communications, camera systems and classroom technology infrastructure; Shall Orinda Union School District issue $55 million dollars in bonds at legal interest rates, collecting $3.3 million dollars annually with rates averaging 3 cents per $100 assessed value while bonds are outstanding, with citizen oversight, annual audits, no funds for administrator salaries, and all funds used for Orinda schools only?
65.1%
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- Q2. Uninformed Support for $45M Academic
Excellence Bond Measure
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2018 June 2018 34.0% 32.3% 30.1% 27.9% 10.2% 12.4% 17.0% 18.3% 8.7% 9.0% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
60.2%
Orinda Union School District Academic Excellence Measure. To:
- Update science, technology,
engineering, art, and math classrooms at Orinda Intermediate and elementary schools;
- Provide or maintain library,
multipurpose, cafeteria, music and drama classrooms; and
- Maintain Wagner Ranch Nature
Area; Shall Orinda Union School District issue $45 million dollars in bonds at legal interest rates, collecting $2.7 million dollars annually with rates averaging 2.6 cents per $100 assessed value while bonds are outstanding, with citizen oversight, annual audits, no funds for administrator salaries, and all funds used for Orinda schools only?
64.1%
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- Q3. Features of the Measure I
November 2018 (n=454)
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2.
Somewhat More Likely Somewhat Less Likely Much Less Likely
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- 1
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- F. Replace aging portables with new flexible, modular
- T. Provide or maintain music and drama classrooms
- N. Repair and modernize existing classrooms
- V. Maintain libraries
- U. Upgrade classroom technology infrastructure
- A. Provide classroom air conditioning and updated
- R. Provide classrooms for technology, engineering and
- B. Upgrade fire safety, classroom locks, security lighting,
- J. Provide science, technology, engineering and math
- D. Update science, technology, engineering, art, and math
- C. Update science, technology, engineering, art, and math
- E. Protect the quality of academic instruction in core
0.64 0.65 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.81 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.93 0.94 1.07
Much More Likely
Sample A Sample B
Tier 2 Tier 1
72.7% 56.2%
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- Q3. Features of the Measure II
November 2018 (n=454)
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2.
Somewhat More Likely Somewhat Less Likely Much Less Likely
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- 1
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- Q. Upgrade Orinda Intermediate School track and field
- O. Provide outdoor learning spaces
- P. Improve Wagner Ranch Nature Area
- I. Transform an existing multipurpose building into a
performing arts theater and classrooms at Orinda
- K. Upgrade shade structures to protect students from sun
and rain
- S. Provide or maintain multipurpose classrooms and
cafeterias
- L. Modernize elective classrooms
- G. Provide collaborative learning spaces
- M. Repair and reconfigure sidewalks, parking areas and
bus drops-offs to improve safety and reduce traffic
- H. Maintain Wagner Ranch Nature Area
- 0.03
0.22 0.23 0.34 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.50
Much More Likely
Sample A Sample B
Tier 5 Tier 3
51.5% 34.3%
Tier 4
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- Q4. Informational Statements I
November 2018 (n=454)
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0.
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- L. Good schools make our neighborhoods more desirable
and improve our property values
- M. Orinda schools often experience flooding when it rains.
Our schools need updates to avoid water damage and
- F. Lafayette, Moraga and Walnut Creek schools have all
been updated and Orinda schools are falling behind. Our
- D. These measures require independent citizens'
- versight and reports to the community to ensure the
- P. Most of the district's school facilities and classrooms
are 45 to 60 years old and need upgrades to ensure the
- E. Even if you do not have school-age children, updating
local schools is a wise investment. Good schools improve
- J. Because Orinda classrooms don't have air conditioning,
school had to be closed last year when the temperature
- B. The measures will upgrade classrooms and educational
facilities to provide up-to-date classrooms for core
- A. Every penny from these measures will benefit local
schools, be controlled locally, and cannot be taken away 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.12 1.25
No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely
Sample A Sample B
Tier 2 Tier 1
71.2% 62.4%
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- Q4. Informational Statements II
November 2018 (n=454)
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0.
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- N. Orinda schools need to be rebuilt to support the high-
level learning our students deserve
- I. The measures would leverage outdoor learning areas at
creeks and open space areas near Orinda schools
- Q. These measures will support 21st century learning at
all schools
- O. Orinda residents have always supported high quality
public education, this measure is an opportunity to
- K. The school facilities funded by these measures are
essential to building a strong academic foundation.
- H. Orinda Union School District is proud to have award-
winning schools. These measures protect academic
- G. Orinda schools provide a high-quality education, but
the facilities are old and deteriorating. Our students
- R. The measures will increase energy efficiency, and save
money by reducing heating and cooling costs, that can be
- C. None of the money from these measures can be used
to increase salaries, benefits or pensions for 0.81 0.82 0.85 0.87 0.91 0.96 0.99 0.99 1.00
No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely
Tier 2 cont’d Tier 3
57.2% 53.1% Sample A Sample B
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- Q5. Interim Support for $55M Student Health/
Safety/Modernization Bond Measure
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Nov 2018 Initial Test Nov 2018 Interim Test Jun 2018 Initial Test Jun 2018 Interim Test 33.2% 34.9% 31.7% 33.5% 31.9% 33.7% 30.1% 34.2% 10.4% 11.5% 11.5% 13.8% 16.8% 15.6% 19.0% 15.2% 7.7% 4.3% 7.7% 3.3% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
61.8%
Orinda Union School District Student Health, Safety and Classroom Modernization. To:
- Repair and modernize existing
classrooms;
- Provide classroom air
conditioning and updated electrical systems;
- Upgrade fire safety, classroom
locks, security lighting, communications, camera systems and classroom technology infrastructure; Shall Orinda Union School District issue $55 million dollars in bonds at legal interest rates, collecting $3.3 million dollars annually with rates averaging 3 cents per $100 assessed value while bonds are outstanding, with citizen oversight, annual audits, no funds for administrator salaries, and all funds used for Orinda schools only?
65.1% 67.7% 68.6%
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- Q6. Interim Support for $45M Academic
Excellence Bond Measure
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Nov 2018 Initial Test Nov 2018 Interim Test Jun 2018 Initial Test Jun 2018 Interim Test 34.0% 34.2% 32.3% 31.9% 30.1% 33.3% 27.9% 35.2% 10.2% 11.9% 12.4% 13.1% 17.0% 16.0% 18.3% 14.8% 8.7% 4.6% 9.0% 5.0% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
60.2%
Orinda Union School District Academic Excellence Measure. To:
- Update science, technology,
engineering, art, and math classrooms at Orinda Intermediate and elementary schools;
- Provide or maintain library,
multipurpose, cafeteria, music and drama classrooms; and
- Maintain Wagner Ranch Nature
Area; Shall Orinda Union School District issue $45 million dollars in bonds at legal interest rates, collecting $2.7 million dollars annually with rates averaging 2.6 cents per $100 assessed value while bonds are outstanding, with citizen oversight, annual audits, no funds for administrator salaries, and all funds used for Orinda schools only?
64.1% 67.1% 67.5%
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- Q7. Critical Statements
November 2018 (n=454)
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0.
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- E. Property owners who do not have children in school
should not have to pay this tax
- C. The measures will just build new structures on pristine
- pen space
- F. The City of Orinda is asking voters for a $25 per parcel
increase in the library property tax, with automatic annual
- B. Public employee salaries, benefits and pensions are
- ut of control. We need to contain these costs before
- H. The City of Orinda is asking voters for a $25 per parcel
increase in the library property tax, with automatic annual
- G. With the improved economy and home sales, the
District is already getting more money, we don't need a
- A. Voters have passed millions of dollars in property
taxes, State vehicle registration fees, gas and income tax
- D. If the District managed the money better, they would
not need to raise taxes to fund facilities needs 0.27 0.34 0.42 0.46 0.47 0.57 0.61 0.62
No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely
Sample A Sample B
Tier 2 Tier 1
41.1% 16.3%
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- Q8. Informed Support for $55M Student Health/
Safety/Modernization Bond Measure
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Nov 2018 Initial Test Nov 2018 Final Test Jun 2018 Initial Test Jun 2018 Final Test 33.2% 32.3% 31.7% 31.7% 31.9% 34.4% 30.1% 34.0% 10.4% 11.8% 11.5% 13.0% 16.8% 16.9% 19.0% 18.0% 7.7% 4.6% 7.7% 3.2% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
61.8%
Orinda Union School District Student Health, Safety and Classroom Modernization. To:
- Repair and modernize existing
classrooms;
- Provide classroom air
conditioning and updated electrical systems;
- Upgrade fire safety, classroom
locks, security lighting, communications, camera systems and classroom technology infrastructure; Shall Orinda Union School District issue $55 million dollars in bonds at legal interest rates, collecting $3.3 million dollars annually with rates averaging 3 cents per $100 assessed value while bonds are outstanding, with citizen oversight, annual audits, no funds for administrator salaries, and all funds used for Orinda schools only?
65.1% 65.7% 66.7%
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- Q9. Informed Support for $45M Academic
Excellence Bond Measure
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Nov 2018 Initial Test Nov 2018 Final Test Jun 2018 Initial Test Jun 2018 Final Test 34.0% 33.0% 32.3% 31.5% 30.1% 35.3% 27.9% 34.6% 10.2% 9.3% 12.4% 10.6% 17.0% 16.8% 18.3% 17.3% 8.7% 5.6% 9.0% 6.0% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
60.2%
Orinda Union School District Academic Excellence Measure. To:
- Update science, technology,
engineering, art, and math classrooms at Orinda Intermediate and elementary schools;
- Provide or maintain library,
multipurpose, cafeteria, music and drama classrooms; and
- Maintain Wagner Ranch Nature
Area; Shall Orinda Union School District issue $45 million dollars in bonds at legal interest rates, collecting $2.7 million dollars annually with rates averaging 2.6 cents per $100 assessed value while bonds are outstanding, with citizen oversight, annual audits, no funds for administrator salaries, and all funds used for Orinda schools only?
64.1% 66.1% 68.3%
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- Q10. Support for $494 Per Year Average Cost
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2018 June 2018 26.0% 25.4% 29.7% 27.3% 12.7% 12.8% 22.7% 26.3% 8.9% 8.3% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
52.7%
If you heard that the measures would cost the average homeowner in Orinda about $494 per year would you vote yes or no on the measure?
55.7%
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- Q11. Support for Alternative Combined $52M
Bond Measure
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2018 June 2018 23.5% 23.1% 31.1% 32.1% 13.1% 12.1% 16.7% 17.7% 15.5% 15.0% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA
55.2%
Instead of two bonds totaling $100 million dollars, would you vote yes or no if there was just
- ne combined $52 million dollar
bond measure that would complete fewer of the high priority projects?
54.6%
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Summary & Recommendations
Ø The survey revealed a very solid base of voter support for a Student Health, Safety and Classroom Modernization bond and an Academic Excellence bond measure. § Support for the measures in the November 2018 election were 65.1% / 64.1% on the uninformed test, 68.6% / 67.5% on the interim test and 66.7% / 68.3% on the informed test. § Similarly, support for the measure in the June 2018 election was 61.8% / 60.2% on the uninformed test, 67.7% / 67.1% on the interim test and 65.7% / 66.1% on the informed test. § It is important to note that the higher turnout election, while not statistically different, is numerically higher.
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Summary & Recommendations
Ø Top features of the measure (listed below) suggest that some of the items in the ballot question could be revised to better align with voter priorities. § Protect the quality of academic instruction in core subjects like math, science, reading, and writing. § Update science, technology, engineering, art, and math classrooms at Orinda Intermediate School. § Update science, technology, engineering, art, and math classrooms at Orinda elementary schools. § Provide science, technology, engineering and math makerspace at all schools.
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Summary & Recommendations
Ø Top features of the measure (listed below) suggest that some of the items in the ballot question could be revised to better align with voter priorities (continued) § Upgrade fire safety, classroom locks, security lighting, communications, and camera systems. § Provide classrooms for technology, engineering and robotics. § Provide classroom air conditioning and updated electrical systems. § Upgrade classroom technology infrastructure. § Maintain libraries. § Repair and modernize existing classrooms. § Provide or maintain music and drama classrooms.
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Summary & Recommendations
Ø Top statements (listed below) identify information that is important to voters. § Every penny from these measures will benefit local schools, be controlled locally, and cannot be taken away by the state. § The measures will upgrade classrooms and educational facilities to provide up-to-date classrooms for core academics including math, science, technology, engineering, reading and writing. § Because Orinda classrooms don't have air conditioning, school had to be closed last year when the temperature reached 107 degrees. § Even if you do not have school-age children, updating local schools is a wise investment. Good schools improve the quality of life in our community and protect the value of our homes. § Most of the district's school facilities and classrooms are 45 to 60 years
- ld and need upgrades to ensure the health and safety of all students.
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Summary & Recommendations
Ø Given the survey findings, the 55 percent majority required for approval, TBWB and Godbe Research recommend that the Orinda Union School District continue the process to prepare for a 2018 Student Health, Safety and Classroom Modernization bond and an Academic Excellence bond.
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www.godberesearch.com
California and Corporate Offices 1575 Old Bayshore Highway, Suite 102 Burlingame, CA 94010 Nevada Office 59 Damonte Ranch Parkway, Suite B309 Reno, NV 89521 Pacific Northwest Office 601 108th Avenue NE, Suite 1900 Bellevue, WA 98004
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Planning for Successful Bond Measures
Orinda Union School District
Charles Heath, Partner TBWB Strategies February 26, 2018
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Bond Planning Process
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à Inform and engage internal school community à Parents à Teachers/Staff à Students à PTAs and Boosters à Inform and engage external community à Elected leaders à Business leaders à Civic leaders à Voters At-Large
Building Consensus
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Building the Measures
à Project lists à Resolutions calling election à Ballot question à Tax rate statements à Board vote
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Independent Advocacy Campaign
à Advertising à Phone banks à Precinct walks à Lawn signs à Private fundraising à Endorsements à Direct mail à Web/Social media
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Independent Advocacy Campaign
à Ensure strong parent participation à Remind supporters to vote down the ballot à Track votes to a win
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November 2018 Measure Timeline
Unlikely Voters 31%
Likely Voters 69%
Unlikely Voters 31%
Likely Voters 69%