Optics Market Overview & Future Opportunities Tom Hausken, PhD OSA Senior Industry Advisor 6 December 2018
OIDA Highlights Roadmapping workshops & reports – Integrated photonics – Sensors – Life sciences – Market Updates & other reports Advocacy – SBIR and Plug & Play – Lobbying support – Export control revisions – AIM Photonics, BRIDG Other benefits – WORKinOPTICS.com – Exhibit and advertising discounts Also check out OSA’s Innovation School!
Photonics production grew in 2018 4.5% Source: OIDA (2018).
Slowing growth in China GDP Annual Growth at Market Prices (%) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2018).
When will the growth end? U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Price of foreign currencies buying U.S. dollars (normalized to Q1 2012) 1.2 Yuan 1.0 Euro 0.8 Yen Gold (oz.) 0.6 0.4 2-3% annual growth expected. Higher interest rates? 0.2 “Hidden” unemployment also down. 0.0 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Oil prices are moderate. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dollar stronger. Sources: (Bottom left) OIDA, December 2018. (Top right) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 3 December 2018.
Regional hot topics North America Driven by commercial economy Industry 4.0 Belt and Road Project The “Apple Economy”: consumer products, Quantum Quantum autonomous vehicles, technologies technologies IoT, AI & cloud Europe post-Brexit Made in China 2025 Europe and China Top-down policy is prominent
China Belt & Road Initiative Source: Mercator Institute for China Studies (March 2017)
Recent photonics performance Production (Normalized to 2013) Source: OIDA (2018).
Today: market expansion balances falling prices 6.5% CAGR 5.7% CAGR 2.9% CAGR Source: OIDA (2017) from Laser Focus World magazine issues and World Bank data. “GDP” represents global growth in U.S. dollars. “Inflation” includes effects of U.S. dollar conversion rates.
Displays Top left: Largest OLED display at South Korea’s Incheon International Airport. Source: LG (2015) Top right: Samsung microLED wall display at CES 2018. Bottom right: ZTE Nubia X smartphone with dual displays.
Heads-up displays Photo credits (clockwise from upper left): Google $1,500 Glass, Recon Instruments’ $599 Jet wearable computer for sports. Founder Meron Gribetz of Meta showing $999 holographic 3D SpaceGlasses, Vuzix $5,999 M2000AR ruggedized system with helmet and “waveguide optical system,” Oculus VR $350 Rift Developer Kit for virtual reality games (company acquired by Facebook for $2B), Microsoft Hololens mixed reality headset, Second Sight $100,000 glasses with visual processing unit for patients with an epiretinal prosthesis.
Selected display revenues All Display All Selected Corning Display Supplier Revenues Revenues Corning (US$ Billions) (US$ Billions) Source: OIDA (2018) from company reports. Corning revenues for display + specialty glass segments.
Optical communications Source: Google. Data center in Mayes County, Oklahoma
Optical communications: Datacenter capex 14 Source: OIDA, from company reports.
Optical communications: Photonic integration • 400G optical interconnects • 5G RF • LIDAR Source: (Upper right) Atsushi Kanno, NICT (Japan) at OIDA workshop on Scalable Integrated Photonics for 5G and IoT (March 2018). (Lower right) Cruise Automation (2017). 1 st generation Chevrolet 15 Bolt design in San Francisco.
Sensors… Sources: Samsung Galaxy A9 quad camera smartphone, Apple iPhone X, Light L16 camera using 16 cameras for $1,950.
…There’s a great future in sensors. • LIDAR and self-driving cars, aircraft, & submersibles • Gesture recognition & “touch free” 3D imaging • Virtual and augmented reality • Face recognition and other biometrics • Robotic surgery and label-free imaging • Robot caregivers • Robot soldiers • Internet of Everything • Wearables • Quantum photonic sensors, atomic clocks, gravitational sensors • Light field imaging and computational imaging • Environmental sensors • Photoacoustic imaging • Breathalyzers, saliva detectors, sweat detectors • Vision implants
Autonomous vehicles pull the market Source: Boston Consulting Group (2015) via futurism.com.
Machine Tools Sources: (Top left) cabume.co.uk featuring 450mm wafer using MII and Xaar technology. (Bottom right) Fraunhofer IWS cutting 100 holes in 1.17 seconds.
Machine tools Source: OIDA (2018)
Machine tools Source: OIDA from company reports and Yahoo Finance.
Security • Hazardous material detection • Multi-spectral imaging • Remote sensing and imaging • Fiber sensors for perimeter monitoring • Biometrics • Surveillance • Quantum key distribution & communication • Autonomous vehicles and robot soldiers • Countermeasures • Directed energy
Directed energy programs U.S. Directed Energy BA1-BA3 Funding ($M) Data source: U.S. government budget documents. All U.S. funding values represent fiscal years. Directed energy represents selected Air Force and MDA BA1-BA3 R&D programs. Top: Russian Peresvet VLK (Combat Laser Complex) mounted on truck, released by Russian Ministry of Defense (March 2018). Bottom: Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (C-UAS) with laser-based weapon, released by China Ministry of National Defense (28 Nov 2017).
China: Quantum Communication China launched a satellite, called Micius, in August 2016 for a space-based quantum communication test bed. It reported a successful quantum communication links from China to Vienna via the satellite in June 2017. China demonstrated quantum key distribution over 32 trusted nodes along a 1,240-mile optical fiber route in September 2017.
Privately-funded R&D in Quantum Computing $50M to Dutch Frontiers Institute Station Q QuTech hub Santa Barbara Denver Investors include USC-Lockheed Martin Bezos Expeditions, Quantum In-Q-Tel, and Computation Center Goldman Sachs Baltimore
LED lighting Top left: OLED light from LG Display (2016). Bottom right: Old span of Oakland Bay Bridge.
Penetration rates of LED lighting applications Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy EERE, Solid-State Lighting 2017 Suggested Research Topics Supplement , Figure 2.7.
Photovoltaic energy Source: 40 MWpeak floating photovoltaic plant in Anhui Province, China, using Hanwa Q CELLs. It was China’s largest floating PV plant at the time, with plans to build 70 MW and 150 MW plants in the same region. (pv- tech.org, July 2017)
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (2017), courtesy of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden Colorado.
Life sciences Source: ams NanEyeM (100K pixels at 49 fps with 2m cable) and NanEyeXS (40K pixels at 55 fps).
U.S. federal R&D funding OIDA estimates NIH funding for new biophotonics techniques is ~$100M/year. U.S. Government R&D Funding ($B) Source: U.S. National Science Foundation (May 2018). Constant-dollar conversions based on GDP deflators from U.S. government budget, FY 2017.
U.S. BRAIN Initiative Funding Funding ($ Millions) Source: OIDA, from NIH budget documents.
Questions? Tom Hausken thausken@osa.org
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