Opportunity Day 1Q2019 29 29 May 2019 Contents 1 Overview - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1Q2019 29 29 May 2019

Opportunity Day

1

Contents 2

1Q2019 Performance

1

Overview

3

Outlook 2019 Outlook 2Q2019

Activity highlights 1Q2019

Standalone Rating Final Rating

Foreign Currency Local Currency

PTT

BBB+

Maintain at

BBB+ A-

PTTEP A- GC BBB+ BBB+ TOP BBB+ BBB+

+ Established Map ta Phut Air Product Co., Ltd (Jan. ‘19)

+ NGV price for Public be lifted 3 bath/kg every 4 months starting (May 16’19) + PTTGE – FBP Divestment (Apr’19)

PTT’s Highlight

PTTEP’s Highlight

GPSC’s Highlight PTTOR’s Highlight

• GSP#1 : planned Turn down (50%) for 45 days (Jan – 15 Mar ‘19)
• GSP#2 GSP#5 and Ethane plant : Tropical Storm “PABUK” unplanned SD 9 days (Dec’18 –Jan’19)
• IRPC RDCC Turnaround : 28 days

PTT Group Lowlight + 1 notch on Standalone ➔ BBB+ + 1 notch on Final LC ➔ A-

2 + Win bidding in UAE (Jan’19) + Acquired Murphy oil Corporation assets (Mar’19) + Mozambique step forwards by signing SPA + Developing on HBR project

+ Acquired 69.11% of GLOW (14 Mar 19) + In the process of tender offer for 30.89% stake in GLOW

+ Opening of Café Amazon 1st branch in Singapore (Apr’19)

Power 5% 15%

31% 17%

30%

1% 1%

63.9 67.4 63.5 532,972 617,417 550,874

1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 28% 29% 16% 1% 26% 40% 22% 1% 7% 26% 3% 1% + Gas (higher gas price & vol.) + Trading (import & out-out vol.) + PTTEP (higher prices & Bongkot vol.) 3% YoY

39,788 19,538 29,312

1Q18 4Q18 1Q19

90,116 64,443 80,523

1Q18 4Q18 1Q19

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PTT P&R Others* PTTEP Net Income

3

EBITDA P&R PTT-Gas Others PTTEP Revenue PTT-Trading PTT-Gas Others PTTEP P&R

PTT Consolidated Performance: 1Q2019

• Avg. Dubai

(USD/BBL)

1Q19

6% QoQ

QoQ: 50% NI ; Better stock G/L despite lower gas performance YoY: 26% NI ; Soften petroleum & petrochemical spread

3% YoY

Revenue

• Lower from all core businesses

following lower product prices + Higher from power business

EBITDA Net Income

11% YoY 26% YoY

25% QoQ

+ P&R mainly from stock gain in 1Q19 vs stock loss in 4Q18 + Oil : lower exp. & lower stock loss

11% YoY

• P&R : Soften GRM & olefins spreads
• GSP : Lower margin from higher feed

cost & weaker product prices

• Oil : Lower margin (esp. JET)

+ Higher stock gain

26% YoY

• Lower EBITDA
• Loss on derivative
• Higher DD&A

11% QoQ 25% QoQ 50% QoQ

50% QoQ

+ Higher EBITDA + Lower DD&A

• Loss on derivative (PTTEP & PTTT)

Power Power 11% QoQ

1% YoY

Oil Oil PTT-Trading

*other affiliates including PTTOR, PTTLNG, PTTNGD etc.

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Contents

2

1Q2019 Performance

1

Overview

3

Outlook 2019

31 32 33 34 35 36 37

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

2 4 6 8 10 12

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

20 40 60 80 100

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

NG Prices ($/MMBTU)

* JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan

Key Business Drivers:

QoQ: Oil prices tend to pick up, Avg. pooled gas slightly increased, while Petchem prices fell YoY: Most Petrochemical prices dropped, while NG prices escalated

Note: Figures are average & Naphtha (MOP)

• AVG. Dubai vs FO

Petrochemical Products

• AVG. FX

Dubai FO 3.5% HDPE Price PX-Naphtha

51.4 49.0 54.9 52.7 15 63.5

34.9

381 67.4 59.0 9.1 7.0 5.6 5.9 68.8 1,182 1,155 6.1 8.0 6.8 67.7

33.3

8.1 7.9 71.7 6.5 10.5 9.7 335

QoQ: Appreciated 1.2 THB/USD (3.6%) YoY: Depreciated 0.1 THB/USD (0.3%)

63.9 64.1 8.5 6.6 10.2 1,379 382

31.7

72.1 10.0 7.2 11.0 1,384 343

32.1

11.0 74.3 1,350 513

33.1

1,207 573 1,093 561

33.0 31.8

Unit: $/bbl

JLC JKM

• Avg. Pool

QoQ 2% 23% 1% YoY 23% 19% 20%

Unit: $/MMBTU Unit: $/ton (Unit: THB/USD)

PP Price

1,173 1,137 1,270 1,301 1,288 1,215 1,127 378 278 310 201 189 126 71

BZ-Naphtha

HDPE PP PX-NAP BZ-NAP QoQ 9% 7% 2% 44% YoY 21% 11% 47% 77% AVG.Dubai FO 3.5% QoQ 6% 7% YoY 1% 9%

11.2 7.3 1H17 2H17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Apr 19 1H17 2H17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Apr 19 1H17 2H17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Apr 19 1H17 2H17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Apr 19

QoQ: Appreciated 0.6 THB/USD (1.9%) YoY: Less Appreciated 0.2 THB/USD

• AVG. FX

Ending FX

5

JLC* JKM

• Avg. Pooled Price

>100%

Performance rose from GLOW’s power plant contribution Only GPSC performance dropped from higher gas cost

30,282 5,094 1,487 1,043 19,296 3,722 5,114 8,370 8,147 2,079 387 8,238 2,091 12,149 7,363 8,055 261 7,488 (952) (14,826)

Petrochem & Refining Weaken Mkt. GRM from lower product spreads Soften petchem product both Olefins & Aromatics Higher stock gain

48% 74% 11% 10%

1Q19 Performance (QoQ):

Improved performance from better stock G/L despite lower gas performance

Others Affi.

\1 consisting of GPSC, TP, DCAP, PTTES, Digital and ENCO \2 including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties

19,538 MMTHB 29,312

Extra Items

4Q18 1Q19

PTTEP PTT P&R

Margin FX & Derivatives OPEX\2 Depre & Amortiza

• tion

Other Income

• Int. &

CIT exp.& Other Stock gain/(loss)

35,316

27,221

Stock gain/ (loss)

6

PTTEP

Tax effect from Thai Baht appreciation in 1Q19 Lower operating expenses Lower ASP & Vol. Oil Lower Stock loss from price recovery Rising sales Vol. from aviation & diesel Margin dropped from aviation pricing structure

Gas GSP decreased from lower ref. product price S&M decreased from lower FO price and higher gas pooled price

Coal business from past tax lawsuits payback Higher revenue from LNG Terminal 1 Phase 2 Others Affi Power\1 Power

31% Trading Margin from lower domestic condensate price & higher discount rate

• Vol. decreased from lower demand during

winter

1Q19: 92,824 4Q18: 112,120 1Q19: 5,254 4Q18: (25,028) 1Q19: 17,555 4Q18: 22,649 1Q19: 31,195 4Q18: 32,682 1Q19: 2,884 4Q18: 1,841 1Q19: 95 4Q18: 3,817 1Q19: 22,994 4Q18: 17,880

0.08 0.14 0.31 0.55 2018 2019

MMTHB

Statement of Financial Position

7

AP & Other Liabilities PPE Others Non- current Assets AR & Other Current Assets LT Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr) Total Equity Cash & ST Invest 31 Dec 13 30 Sep 14

1,805,041

1,114,175 1,183,061 384,346 447,839 422,358 439,434 434,605 450,767 1,318,495 1,364,139 518,073 545,512 518,916 611,450 1 2 3 4 5

2,521,101 2,355,484

31 Dec. 18 31 Mar. 19

Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0 Net Debt/Equity ≤ 1.0

7% PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level

− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P* (BBB+), FITCH (BBB+) − LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P* (A-), FITCH (BBB+)

Assets/Liabilities increased : mainly from

• GPSC’s acquisition of Glow resulted in higher PPE and liabilities

*S *S&P final rati ting up uplift 1 no notc tch at LC LC on

• nly bu

but t mainta tain for

• r FC

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Contents

2

1Q2019 Performance

1

Overview

3

Outlook 2019

1 3 5 7 9 40 60 80 100 120

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

Dubai Mogas Gasoil Cracking (RHS)

Petroleum

GRM:

• Asian refining margins to range between $4.0 – 5.0/bbl in 2019
• Lower gasoline & FO crack margins in 4Q19 before IMO in

2020

2019 Petroleum and Gas Outlook

Price 1Q2019 2019E Dubai 63.5 60-70 Mogas 67.2 70-80 Gasoil 76.3 78-88 Cracking 3.2 4.0-5.0

2019

$/bbl

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19

Asian Spot LNG Henry Hub

Gas/LNG

Price 1Q2019 2019E Asian Spot LNG 8.5 6.5 – 7.5 Henry Hub (HH) 2.9 2.6 – 3.0

2019

$/MMBTU

Source: PTT, PRISM

Gas/LNG

• Asian Spot LNG:
• More Australian and US LNG projects to come online in

2019

• Buyers remained out of the market amidst high stock levels
• Buyers to return for summer season to procure spot

volumes

• Henry Hub: Strong Growth in US natural gas production to

put downward pressure on prices in 2019

9

Gasoil

• Stock buildup ahead of IMO in 2020
• Higher Chinese exports from additional export quota
• Softened demand as heating demand fades after winter ends,

and lower industrial output due to econ. slowdown Mogas

• Ample supply due to high refinery input of light crude, after

U.S. shale oil export surges

• Higher demand during driving season
• Lower supply from refinery’s yield shifting to maximize

middle distillate ahead of IMO implementation in 2020 Dubai

• OPEC+ to cut supply (1.2 MBPD) to balance market
• Political Risks; U.S. sanction on Iran & Venezuela, unrest in Libya
• Heightened tensions in the Middle East
• Surging Non-OPEC output; especially in U.S. – adding crude

exports after pipeline expansion at Permian completed in 4Q19

• Lower demand due to expectation on global econ. slowdown

300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

BZ FOB Korea PX CFR Taiwan

Benzene Olefins

• During 2Q19, PE price will be supported by ongoing

plant maintenance in Asia

• More U.S. PE cargoes to divert to SEA after start-up
• f new units (RAPID) and ongoing US-China trade war
• PP demand maintain mostly from automotive and

household appliances

• RAPID Project in Malaysia will start-up HDPE, PP in

4Q19, pressuring market

Olefins Aromatics

Polystyrene (PS)

• PS price in 2Q19 will be supported by high demand

from the appliance sector

• Limited growth in long term: Packaging PS demand

continues facing competition from alternate materials and will face risks of bans and negative consumer perception

400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

PS CFR SEA

Price 1Q2019 2019E Polystyrene 1,290 1,270-1,280

Polystyrene

2019

900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

PE CFR SEA PP CFR SEA

Price 1Q2019 2019E HDPE 1,093 1,100-1,110 PP (Film) 1,129 1,150-1,160

2019

$/Ton

Price 1Q2019 2019E BZ 590 650-660 PX 1,080 1,010-1,020

2019

$/Ton $/Ton

Petrochemical Rolling as of Apr-19 Source: PTT, PRISM

2019 Petrochemical Outlook

Aromatics

• PX price to gradually decline from stronger production

due to positive margins and limited maintenance in 2Q19

• China to lower PX import due to start-up of Zhejiang

Petrochemical (4 MTA) and Hengli Group in 2H19

• Abundant BZ supply and high inventory in China
• Firmer feedstock price to support BZ price and

derivative margins

10

Guidance 2019

Gas Separation Plant

GSP 6: planned SD 6 days & planned TD 8 days in May Optimize asset & Improve public sector price Refinery major TA 54 days (Oct-Nov) Aromatics I major TA 53 days (May-Jun) Refinery major TA 30 days (Jun-Jul) Aromatics shutdown TA 45 days (Jun-Jul)

GAS trend 2Q19

Average pooled gas price will slightly decreased

11 Catalyst Cooler: Phase I COD in May

Public price: Lifted 1 Baht/kg start May 15, 2019 Adjust every 4 months

GLOW full performance (69.11%) recognition since 2Q2019 Acquisition Murphy’s business (Mar) ; Sale vol. contribution in 3Q2019

PDP 2018

Cabinet approved on Apr 30,2019 GAS plan to be finalized < 1H2019

Additional 1.5 MTA; Revenue expect in 4Q2019

Thank you

PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department

Disclaimer

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events, financial performance and result of PTT’s activities. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and

• uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from

those projected. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTT does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.

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• Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948

Website: http://www.pttplc.com E-mail: ptt-ir@pttplc.com